Transcript

What the FINAL Midterm Polls Reveal About Democrats' Chances (w/ Harry Enten)

From Pod Save America · Episode page · Watch on YouTube

· 1 h 1 min · 12,159 words · 145 timestamped sections

This is the full, timestamped transcript of "What the FINAL Midterm Polls Reveal About Democrats' Chances (w/ Harry Enten)", an episode of Pod Save America published November 1, 2026 (1 h 1 min, about 12,159 words). It mentions 139 people, works and ideas, including Donald Trump, Harry Enten, Pod Save America, Polling error, Tommy Vietor.

What this episode is about

The discussion analyzes the final midterm polling, assessing Democrats' chances to win the House and various Senate races, while addressing polling concerns like response bias and Republican sample representation. It highlights how data analyst Harry Enten interprets the polling landscape and what the numbers imply for election outcomes.

Key takeaways

  • Historical norms punish the governing party in midterms; Trump’s deep unpopularity makes a larger House swing plausible.
  • Polling biases persist: response bias and undercounted Republicans can skew close races more than the national mood suggests.
  • Democrats could not only regain the House but potentially do so convincingly if Trump’s numbers stay plummeted and turnout holds.
  • Redistricting and polarization matter: structural advantages could compound a Senate map tilted toward Democrats beyond expectations.
  • Affective forecasting fails voters: people overstate anxiety; real-time dashboards may mislead more than the actual results do.

Who speaks in this episode?

What is discussed, and when

  1. – 10:00: Donald Trump, Harry Enten, Pod Save America, Polling error
  2. – 20:00: James Talarico, Wild Alaskan Company, Donald Trump, Ken Paxton
  3. – 30:00: Alaska, Mary Peltola, Mike Rogers, New York Times
  4. – 40:00: Donald Trump, Sherrod Brown, Susan Collins, Ashley Hinson
  5. – 50:00: Kansas, South Carolina, Crooked Media, Mississippi
  6. – 1:00:00: South Carolina, Donald Trump, Polling error, James Talarico
  7. – 1:01:08: Pod Save America, Crooked Media, John Lovett, John Favreau

Notable quotes from "What the FINAL Midterm Polls Reveal About Democrats' Chances (w/ Harry Enten)"

  • Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Tommy Vietor. It is only two days until the midterms, two days until election day, and we are all just refreshing those polling sites as fast as we possibly can to deal with our anxiety, to see what's.
    about Tommy Vietor · at
  • Yeah, well, you do look like a young Russell Crowe. You also seem to be Donald Trump's favorite TV personality or CNN personality. He said, this is a quote, The best person on…
    about Donald Trump · at
  • Rating is low, and Donald Trump's approval rating is quite low. Set the table for us. What is the historical average in terms of the hit the party in power takes, and how do…
    about Harry Enten · at
  • Non-partisan poll of the race has shown Ms. Flanagan by up more than four percentage points since Labor Day. If the polls or our polls wind up underestimating Republican…
    about Polling error · at
  • The latest CNN poll has Tallarico up six points over Ken Paxton. Nate Silver's polling average has Tallarico up 3%.
    about CNN · at
  • Point, that's a problem. And then we spoke about Latino voters. There's polling that shows James Talarico 30, 40 points with Latino voters potentially in Texas.
    about Texas · at
  • Know, a winning Democrat. He's had the secret sauce to win in Ohio many, many cycles. so, right now Nate's polling average has it at 48% for Sherrod Brown.
    about Sherrod Brown · at
  • Amen to that. All right, that's it from us. Lovett, Favreau, and I will be back with you on election day. Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production.
    about Pod Save America · at

Who and what is mentioned in this episode?

People

  • Donald Trump — Person · Referenced political actor · 15 mentions · first at
    President whose approval and political behavior are central to discussion of midterm trends and polling biases
  • Harry Enten — Person · Main guest · 4 mentions · first at
    Primary interview subject; provides data-driven analysis of midterm polls and election outlook
  • Tommy Vietor — Person · Host · 2 mentions · first at
    Interviewer and Pod Save America host guiding conversation and raising listener concerns
  • James Talarico — Person · Senate candidate (Texas) · 7 mentions · first at
    Texas Democratic Senate candidate discussed as leading in polls vs. Ken Paxton
    Point, that's a problem. And then we spoke about Latino voters. There's polling that shows James Talarico 30, 40 points with Latino voters potentially in Texas.
  • Sherrod Brown — Person · Senator and candidate · 4 mentions · first at
    Incumbent Democratic senator in Ohio discussed as a target race and polling uncertainty
  • Ken Paxton — Person · Senate candidate (incumbent, Texas) · 5 mentions · first at
    Republican incumbent in Texas Senate race discussed as unpopular and a liability
    I look at those polls I that to me seems like a real deal, especially considering that Ken Paxton is the least popular GOP nominee in for the Senate in Texas this entire century.
  • Susan Collins — Person · Senator and candidate (Maine) · 3 mentions · first at
    Incumbent Republican discussed for history of outperforming polls and current vulnerability
    Rather easily or hard for him and Joe Biden won rather easily in 2020. And then Susan Collins walked to re-election beating her polls very easily.
  • Abdul El-Sayed — Person · Senate candidate (Michigan) · 2 mentions · first at
    Michigan Democratic Senate candidate discussed regarding polling strength and closing-week attacks
    Crooked Media, so we're very biased. I think he's a incredibly talented communicator. I think the polling average has him up almost four points over Mike Rogers. But, I'm very anxious about the narrative in the closing week.
  • Mary Peltola — Person · Senator and candidate (Alaska) · 3 mentions · first at
    Incumbent Democrat in Alaska discussed for past overperformance and current polling
    Dispense with it when it's fake. let's turn to Alaska. I was feeling bullish about Alaska. Mary Peltola has outperformed a lot in past elections.
  • Roger Marshall — Person · Referenced Republican Senate incumbent · 1 mention · first at
    Named as the underperforming Republican incumbent in Kansas whose unpopularity makes the race competitive
    Roger Marshall, the least popular Republican Senate nominee in Kansas has laid in a campaign this century for sure. You haven't seen polling like this and I looked it up. This laying in a.
  • John Berman — Person · Referenced TV co-host / collaborator · 3 mentions · first at
    Mentioned as Harry Enten's TV partner on CNN segments
    Okay. Okay. Am I more fun to banter with than John Berman, your partner in crime on CNN? I've known John for a long time.
  • Mike Rogers — Person · Senate candidate (Michigan, Republican) · 3 mentions · first at
    Republican opponent to Abdul El-Sayed; used as polling comparison
    Crooked Media, so we're very biased. I think he's a incredibly talented communicator. I think the polling average has him up almost four points over Mike Rogers. But, I'm very anxious about the narrative in the closing week.
  • John Lovett — Person · Host / Crooked Media co-host · 2 mentions · first at
    Part of Pod Save America's hosting team referenced in episode context
    Amen to that. All right, that's it from us. Lovett, Favreau, and I will be back with you on election day. Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production.
  • George W. Bush — Person · Referenced historical comparison · 2 mentions · first at
    Mentioned as a president whose low approval preceded major midterm losses (2006) — historical analogy for Trump's unpopularity
    Point net approval rating. That's approval rating minus disapproval rating. Only two others besides Donald Trump who had a sub 15 minus 15 point net approval rating. Those…
  • Josh Turek — Person · Senate candidate (Iowa) · 2 mentions · first at
    Democratic candidate in Iowa; race described as close and important to watch
    Polling average has Josh Turck ahead of Ashley Hinson by less than a point. Both candidates are at 46. I hate polls.
  • Rob Sand — Person · Referenced candidate / state official · 2 mentions · first at
    Mentioned as an example of a prominent Iowa statewide official and potential gubernatorial candidate to watch
    Got it. Rob's going to hate us for mentioning him as a presidential candidate. The only time I think Rob's ever sent me a gruff text was when I mentioned him as a 2028er and she's.
  • Adam Hamilton — Person · Referenced Democratic challenger · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as the Democratic candidate in Kansas running competitively against Roger Marshall
    Correct. you just see that data and you speak to Republicans and they don't think Roger Marshall has run a good campaign.
  • Darlene Graham — Person · Referenced Senate candidate (South Carolina) · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as a weak Republican candidate whose performance in debates and campaign make the race competitive
    Of the worst debate performances I've ever seen where she was kind of I don't do foreign policy. I could imagine a world where voters aren't thrilled to watch a Senate seat be…
  • Keisha Lance Bottoms — Person · Referenced potential gubernatorial candidate · 1 mention · first at
    Named as a candidate who could become Georgia's first Black and female governor; linked to turnout dynamics
    Particularly helpful or at least two states and three races maybe. I think of Georgia governor, Keisha Lance Bottoms trying to become the first black governor of Georgia, first…
  • Ashley Hinson — Person · Senate candidate (Iowa, Republican) · 3 mentions · first at
    Republican opponent in Iowa Senate contest mentioned in close polling context
    Polling average has Josh Turck ahead of Ashley Hinson by less than a point. Both candidates are at 46. I hate polls.
  • John Favreau — Person · Co-host (Pod Save America) · 2 mentions · first at
    Part of hosting team referenced in episode context and sign-off
    Amen to that. All right, that's it from us. Lovett, Favreau, and I will be back with you on election day. Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production.
  • Nate Silver — Person · Referenced analyst · 2 mentions · first at
    Mentioned as maintaining a polling average that was cited for Texas and other races
    If you look at the people who obviously do this mathematically and have built statistical models, they are all north of 230 as the most likely outcome. and I did a YouTube.
  • Dan Sullivan — Person · Referenced incumbent (Alaska) · 2 mentions · first at
    Republican incumbent senator in Alaska discussed in context of recruitment of another Dan Sullivan
    Always been the narrative about the Times. they ran this big story about efforts by Democrats to recruit another guy named Dan Sullivan to run in this race and siphon votes away from Senator Dan Sullivan, the Republican incumbent.
  • Trey Jackson — Person · Senate candidate (Maine) · 2 mentions · first at
    Democratic candidate in Maine Senate race referenced in discussion about late start and funding
    Obviously, the process for going from Grand Platner to Troy Jackson was not ideal.
  • Dan Pfeiffer — Person · Host / Crooked Media co-host · 1 mention · first at
    Named in episode credits and as one of the Crooked Media hosts who appear on the show
    Amen to that. All right, that's it from us. Lovett, Favreau, and I will be back with you on election day. Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production.
  • Harry S. Truman — Person · Historical reference · 1 mention · first at
    Cited as a historical example of a president with low net approval whose party suffered big midterm losses
    Rating. Only two others besides Donald Trump who had a sub 15 minus 15 point net approval rating. Those being Harry S. Truman going into the 46th midterm and George W. Bush…
  • Peggy Flanagan — Person · Referenced candidate in Minnesota example · 1 mention · first at
    Used as part of a New York Times polling example discussed on response bias concerns
    Minnesota summarizes well. I'm just going to read this to you guys. So they have Peggy Flanagan, the Democrat in Minnesota, defeating Michelle Tafoya, the Republican, by 54 to…
  • J.D. Vance — Person · Referenced politician · 1 mention · first at
    Former Ohio Senate candidate referenced in discussion about Ohio's partisan dynamics and recent statewide results.
    All right, so people feel pretty bullish about Ohio, which is surprising to me because Trump won the state by 11 points in 2024. J.D. Vance won pretty overwhelming in 2022. I think he got 53%.
  • John Husted — Person · Senate candidate (Ohio, Republican) · 1 mention · first at
    Republican opponent to Sherrod Brown used to frame Ohio competitiveness
    But what do you think of Sherrod Brown's chances against John Husted's fat, juicy, thick, thick umper.
  • Vivek Ramaswamy — Person · Referenced candidate · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as a controversial Republican figure in the Ohio governor's race; referenced in negative terms by the hosts.
    There are these targeted Senate races and targeted governors' races. Gina Inhojosa in Texas, Amy Acton is running against Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio where Vivek is just, in the gutter.
  • Lindsey Graham — Person · Referenced incumbent · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced as the longtime Senate incumbent whose seat-family connection influenced discussion about South Carolina's race (mention of suspected heirloom passing).
    Don't do foreign policy. I could imagine a world where voters aren't thrilled to watch a Senate seat be treated like an heirloom that gets passed down in the family from Lindsey Graham to her. But like what do you make of those numbers?
  • Jon Ossoff — Person · Referenced senator / political figure · 1 mention · first at
    Clear, real person with established role in context
    Trying to become the first black governor of Georgia, first female governor of Georgia. And Jon Ossoff obviously is from winning their rather easily in the polls, but will Lance Bottoms come along with him? I also think of Texas which.
  • Haley Stevens — Person · Referenced critic / primary opponent figure · 3 mentions · first at
    Mentioned as someone who made comments about Abdul El-Sayed; used to illustrate narrative noise versus polling
    Trump's out there calling Abdul a jihadist. He's questioning his loyalty to America. Haley [snorts] Stevens the woman he Abdul defeated in the primary and her husband have made…
  • Bill and Hillary Clinton — Person · Historical reference · 2 mentions · first at
    Mentioned among the few presidents whose parties didn't lose House seats in midterms (1998 example)
    House. 34 with FDR was one. Bill Clinton 1998 is two, and George W. Bush in 2002 coming off of 9/11 is three. It would be highly unusual for the White House party not to lose at least some seats going into a midterm election.
  • Gina Hinojosa — Person · Referenced gubernatorial candidate (Texas) · 2 mentions · first at
    Real person; corrected spelling and context
    Speaking of the these governors' races, there are a bunch of states where there are these targeted Senate races and targeted governors' races. Gina Inhojosa in Texas, Amy Acton is running against Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio where.
  • Alex Wagner — Person · Referenced host / event moderator · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as hosting the Pod Save America livestream on election night with Crooked hosts.
    On the midterm night, you don't have to go it alone. Because to celebrate, to commiserate, to do both, Alex Wagner is going to do a live stream.
  • Franklin Delano Roosevelt — Person · Historical reference · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced (FDR) as one of the rare exceptions where the president's party did not lose House seats in midterms.
    Believe three midterm elections since the Civil War in which the White House party did not in fact lose seats in the House. 34 with FDR was one. Bill Clinton 1998 is two, and George W. Bush.
  • Victoria Spartz — Person · Referenced incumbent · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as another bellwether House incumbent whose race could indicate national trends if it becomes close.
    In Indiana, Victoria Spartz's district, the number of which is escaping me right now.
  • Don Davis — Person · Referenced incumbent · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as a North Carolina representative whose performance will be watched as an early indicator on election night.
    Beyond that, I'm going to be interested at 7:00 p.m., how does Don Davis do in North Carolina?
  • Dr. Jack Abbott — Person · Referenced politician · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced as baseline Republican performance in Texas used to compare Ken Paxton's expected turnout.
    Tallarico needs to win here? What's like the secret sauce? Okay, so let's let me take it from the other side. If I'm, let's say, a Republican, I'm saying, Okay, guys, we got to hold this seat.

Companies & orgs

  • CNN — Company · Source / affiliation · 3 mentions · first at
    Employer of Harry Enten and source of polling coverage referenced throughout the episode
  • Crooked Media — Company · Producer / platform · 9 mentions · first at
    Producer of Pod Save America and context for episode distribution
    Amen to that. All right, that's it from us. Lovett, Favreau, and I will be back with you on election day. Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production.
  • Cook Political Report — Company · Referenced analyst organization · 3 mentions · first at
    Quoted for seat projections and ranges for House and Senate outcomes
    For $35 off your first order. Thanks to Wild Alaskan Company for sponsoring this episode. So, the Cook Political Report says the range of outcomes in the Senate, they believe…
  • New York Times — Company · Referenced news source · 5 mentions · first at
    Cited for a story about Minnesota poll outlier and for Alaska reporting
    You're my therapist. the thing that keeps me up at night is polling error and response bias. I think this write-up from a recent New York Times poll of Minnesota summarizes…
  • FiveThirtyEight — Company · Referenced polling/aggregation outlet · 3 mentions · first at
    Implied in discussion of polling aggregation and statistical models (Nate Silver / 538 mentioned)
    A decade ago, I wrote an article, for 538, which is where I was formerly employed, with a very similar thing. And it's one of these issues that I think we sort of.
  • Washington Post — Company · Referenced media outlet · 2 mentions · first at
    Referenced for reporting on polling/contacting Republicans difficulties in Kansas and broader polling concerns.
    Participation on the voter file. As a consequence, we have fewer tools to correct non-response bias. there was a similar article in the Washington Post Friday that talked about…
  • Fox News — Company · Referenced pollster / media comparator · 2 mentions · first at
    Cited as one polling source (Fox poll) used to discuss non-MAGA Republican responses in Texas polling
    First off, the problem is if you look at, I believe, the last Fox News poll.
  • Wedgewood Research — Company · Referenced (negatively) as an unreliable pollster example · 2 mentions · first at
    Mentioned in discussion about fake or low-quality polls and polling firms that produced misleading numbers
    You were formerly the CEO of Wedgewood polling, right? The Yes, that's exactly right. Yes, I I The polling firm that was faking numbers.
  • Poly Market — Company · Referenced prediction market · 1 mention · first at
    Cited as an example of non-traditional data/prediction sources that analysts consider alongside polls
    That being said, I tend to take a sort of world view of this is I look at all of the data. I look at the all the data. I look at the polling data. I look at the prediction…
  • Buffalo Bills — Company · Referenced sports team (anecdotal) · 2 mentions · first at
    Used metaphorically and in banter about the host/guest's interest in football; several personal comments about team performance
    Harry, thank you so much for joining the show. Good luck to you on the next couple days. Good luck to your Buffalo Bills. But not that much luck.
  • Caltech — Company · Referenced data source / prediction-market adjacent organization · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned alongside prediction markets and other data tools as part of the wider data ecosystem
    So as we roll through this election and into 2028, how are you thinking about the health of the kind of polling industry and data analytics and how do you think it's going to evolve as.
  • Hasty Pudding Theatricals — Organization · Cultural reference / theatrical group · 1 mention · first at
    Organization referenced in cultural context
    Yes, it's a club thing. I dare anyone in the audience to look him up from his Hasty Pudding days. I think it John probably hates me for it, but I think it I think it's a perfect you.
  • New England Patriots — Company · Cultural reference / sports team · 1 mention · first at
    Corrects misclassification from company to an actual sports team name referenced in dialogue.
    Yeah, my Patriots beat your ass, too.

Concepts & topics

  • Polling error — Concept · Core topic · 7 mentions · first at
    Central concern of the episode — whether polls may underestimate Republican strength or suffer response bias
  • Early voting — Concept · Key data source · 1 mention · first at
    Used to assess turnout patterns and whether Democratic turnout is elevated in key states
    So, over my years in politics, I have learned not to pay a lot of attention to early vote, not to pay a lot of attention to the first round of exit polls cuz they tend to be misleading or.
  • Redistricting — Concept · Core topic · 3 mentions · first at
    Referenced as a structural factor affecting House outcomes and Republican advantages in prior cycles
    Know, a lot of people have been, at least a few months ago thinking about those redistricting efforts that the Republicans have been doing, thinking about how polarized our…
  • Ranked-choice voting — Concept · Core topic (electoral mechanism) · 2 mentions · first at
    Explained as relevant to Alaska's Senate race and how recruiting a spoiler candidate might have limited effect
    It's so stupid. It's so stupid. It's like I don't know yeah, like the ranked-choice voting piece of it is relevant for listeners just because it means it's it seems less likely that having another Dan Sullivan on the.
  • Maine Senate race polling — Concept · Core topic (race-specific polling reliability) · 2 mentions · first at
    Discussion point about Susan Collins' historical over-performance relative to polls and the quality/quantity of polling in Maine for the current cycle.
    To raise a lot of money quickly. Susan Collins is a historic over-performer in her elections. The current polling average in Maine has Jackson up 2.5 points, but I also feel…
  • Voting Rights Act — Concept · Contextual legal framework · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced in relation to Shelby decision and its effects on Black turnout and southern voting dynamics.
    So, the last three states that I mentioned are Nebraska, Florida, and Mississippi. We had this horrible Supreme Court decision, the Shelby decision, which sort of further gutted the Voting Rights Act. There seems to be some evidence that.
  • Ticket splitting — Concept · Strategy / phenomenon · 2 mentions · first at
    Discussed as the possibility that voters may choose different parties for governor vs. Senate; splitting votes remains possible
    Rob Sand in Iowa that you just mentioned. to what degree do you think we should expect governor and Senate races to be correlated? How much vote switching should we expect these days? What do you think?
  • October surprise — Concept · Concept / tactical notion · 2 mentions · first at
    Common political concept discussed in analysis
    Surprise. look at the polling data is right. That is, assuming there isn't some last minute October surprise in every state. And assuming that the polling now is what the polling is on Monday a Monday, etc.

Places & events

  • Texas — Place · Key battleground state · 1 mention · first at
    Discussed as a possible Democratic pickup (Talarico vs. Paxton) and broader demographic trends
  • Ohio — Place · Key battleground state · 2 mentions · first at
    Featured in discussion of Sherrod Brown vs. John Husted and polling skepticism due to white working-class voters
    All right, so people feel pretty bullish about Ohio, which is surprising to me because Trump won the state by 11 points in 2024. J.D. Vance won pretty overwhelming in 2022. I think he got 53%.
  • Kansas — Place · Potential flip state · 7 mentions · first at
    Identified as the most likely Republican-held Senate seat to flip to Democrats
    The tide is going. I will note I'll admit I don't I haven't really watched Kansas election nights all that closely.
  • Florida — Place · Referenced battleground state · 4 mentions · first at
    Location with political relevance in battleground context
    Beyond that, I'm going to be interested at 7:00 p.m., how does Don Davis do in North Carolina?
  • Georgia — Place · Referenced battleground state · 2 mentions · first at
    Mentioned as a must-win for Democrats in the Senate map and for possible gubernatorial implications tied to Black turnout
    North Carolina seems like a done deal.
  • South Carolina — Place · Contested Senate state · 9 mentions · first at
    Mentioned as a race where Democrats may be competitive but face strong racial polarization
    See South Carolina's when you look at the polls, you see it's a racially polarized state. It tends to mean the state is very inelastic. Ergo, the results are always within sort…
  • Alaska — Place · Competitive Senate state · 5 mentions · first at
    Discussed for Mary Peltola's upside, ranked-choice voting complications, and late October recruiting story
    Pollster and the polling and kind of dispense with it when it's fake. let's turn to Alaska. I was feeling bullish about Alaska. Mary Peltola has outperformed a lot in past elections.
  • Iowa — Place · Contested Senate / Governor state · 3 mentions · first at
    Described as close and historically prone to polling misses; includes both Senate and governor contests
    For no other reason, we talk about polling misses, it's Iowa's home to the greatest polling miss I think in the last decade in terms of most notable.
  • Michigan — Place · Competitive Senate state · 3 mentions · first at
    Discussed in context of Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers and polling dynamics
    Unless Michigan, Michigan we sometimes get those vote drops in from Detroit.
  • Maine — Place · Competitive Senate state · 2 mentions · first at
    Discussed for Susan Collins' history of outperforming polls and current polling showing a narrow race
    To raise a lot of money quickly. Susan Collins is a historic over-performer in her elections. The current polling average in Maine has Jackson up 2.5 points, but I also feel…
  • Shelby County v. Holder — Event · Legal precedent · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned (as 'Shelby decision') as a court ruling that affected Voting Rights Act protections and possibly influenced turnout dynamics, particularly Black turnout in the South
    So, the last three states that I mentioned are Nebraska, Florida, and Mississippi. We had this horrible Supreme Court decision, the Shelby decision, which sort of further gutted the Voting Rights Act. There seems to be some evidence that.
  • Mississippi — Place · Referenced battleground / southern state · 4 mentions · first at
    Listed among states where increased Black turnout could affect outcomes (Senate/governor)
    So look, when I look at the early vote data, it's definitely the case that I see that black turnout is up significantly. And obviously, if you're going to do well in a state like South Carolina, if you're a.
  • Minnesota — Place · Referenced polling case study · 2 mentions · first at
    Used as an example of a poll outlier and challenges with voter-file corrections
    There are good reasons such a warning might come from Minnesota. Unlike every other state we pulled this cycle, Minnesota doesn't have party registration or partisan primary participation on the voter file. As a.
  • Washington, D.C. — Place · Event location · 3 mentions · first at
    Referenced as the city hosting Crooked Con, the in-person conference tied to the podcast.
    Will be drinks, which we'll need after the midterms no matter which way they go. Get your tickets at crookedcon.com where we'll also announce the lineup. If you're a Friends of…
  • Kentucky — Place · Referenced state · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as location of a bellwether House district (KY-6) to watch on election night.
    Look, when the polls close at 6:00 in Kentucky, Kentucky 6, I think is the number one, right? This is the district around Lexington. Ben Chandler back in the day, who is a.
  • 2028 Presidential Election — Event · Future reference · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as a looming consequential election and as context for how polling and data practices will evolve
    The health of the kind of polling industry and data analytics and how do you think it's going to evolve as we get closer to, maybe the most consequential election of our lifetimes in 2028?
  • Buffalo — Place · Personal reference / location · 3 mentions · first at
    Referenced by Harry Enten as his home NFL team (Buffalo Bills) when making an aside about hoping for a Super Bowl and personal anecdotes.
    Harry, thank you so much for joining the show. Good luck to you on the next couple days. Good luck to your Buffalo Bills. But not that much luck.
  • Nebraska — Place · Referenced potential stretch Senate state · 2 mentions · first at
    Location mentioned in Senate-state discussion
    So, the last three states that I mentioned are Nebraska, Florida, and Mississippi. We had this horrible Supreme Court decision, the Shelby decision, which sort of further gutted.
  • Louisiana — Place · Referenced state with turnout implications · 2 mentions · first at
    Location referenced in turnout discussion; clarified scope
    South Carolina is a race very racially polarized state. It's one of those things, when I think of Mississippi or Louisiana, you see South Carolina's when you look at the polls, you see it's a racially polarized state. It tends to.
  • 911 — Event · Historical reference · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced when explaining why George W. Bush's party did not lose seats in the 2002 midterms (post-9/11 rally effect).
    Party did not in fact lose seats in the House. 34 with FDR was one. Bill Clinton 1998 is two, and George W. Bush in 2002 coming off of 9/11 is three. It would be highly unusual…
  • Lexington — Place · Referenced city · 1 mention · first at
    Used to locate Kentucky's 6th district (bellwether district) as a place to watch on election night.
    6:00 in Kentucky, Kentucky 6, I think is the number one, right? This is the district around Lexington. Ben Chandler back in the day, who is a in a lineage of Happy Chandler for the baseball fans who are out there, who of course.
  • Indiana — Place · Referenced state · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced in context of a bellwether House district (Victoria Spartz) to watch on election night.
    In Indiana, Victoria Spartz's district, the number of which is escaping me right now.
  • Orlando — Place · Referenced city · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as an area in Florida where Latino voter behavior will be watched as an indicator.
    As a Democrat elected from Texas since 1988. So, getting some early signals on the Latino vote in and around Orlando down in the Miami-Dade area.
  • Miami-Dade — Place · Referenced county · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as another Florida area where Latino turnout will be important to monitor.
    Senator as a Democrat elected from Texas since 1988. So, getting some early signals on the Latino vote in and around Orlando down in the Miami-Dade area.
  • Arkansas — Place · Referenced state · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned in passing when discussing historical Senate/political examples (Susan Collins' past opponents, broader election history).
    Was the same year in which, Mark Pryor was running basically unopposed. I think maybe there's a Green Party candidate running in Arkansas.
  • Vermont — Place · Referenced state · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as an example where incumbent Republican governor Phil Scott remains favored despite national trends; used to illustrate split-ticket voting examples.
    Lose in Vermont, Republican governor of Vermont, but I think is the favorite in that race. That gives you an idea, right? That still there are states that vote one way for, federal races and then in a statewide race can.
  • Nevada — Place · Referenced state · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned in context of early vote patterns and as a state where early vote data may indicate Democratic advantages (Jon Ralston reference).
    Nevada and obviously Jon Ralston has done the stuff out there and we have a very long baseline. I think you could say that it is good for Democrats. But overall, if I'm being…
  • Detroit — Place · Referenced city · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as the source of late vote drops in Michigan that can delay final results on election night.
    Unless Michigan, Michigan we sometimes get those vote drops in from Detroit.
  • Harvard University — Place · Institutional reference · 1 mention · first at
    Corrects misclassification of a well-known university as a company; in context refers to the institution associated with the subject's background.
    I I am a fan when you can get Johnny B to go a little loose. Johnny B, he was a Hasty Pudding's guy back at back in his Harvard days.

Media & podcasts

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    This episode's program and platform for the interview and political discussion
  • Sabato's Crystal Ball — Media · Referenced forecasting resource · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as one of the outlets whose ratings (along with Cook) indicate Democrats can reach a House majority without toss-ups.
    Broadly as a good starting point. And one of the things I think is so interesting, right, is right now if you look at the Cook Political Report or you look at Sabato's Crystal Ball or what have you, you will see that Democrats reach a.
  • Simpsons — Media · Cultural reference · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced as part of a side comment about historical media coverage or past elections; used as a humorous aside by the guest.
    Had like no voter turnout. I'm fairly sure most people were whatever. I think there was a whole Simpsons about that by the way.

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Full transcript with timestamps

Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Tommy Vietor. It is only two days until the midterms, two days until election day, and we are all just refreshing those polling sites as fast as we possibly can to deal with our anxiety, to see what's going to happen, and to figure out what the numbers tell us. So, I brought in an expert today. We are going to talk with CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten. You can find him on CNN. He does hilarious and really informative bits with John Berman on CNN on TV. You can also find him on the Enten scale on CNN all access, and Harry does exclusive data coverage for CNN on YouTube. We spoke on Friday. We broke down the kind of broader mood music of the electorate and what he's seeing in polling. We talked about the odds of Democrats taking the House.

We walked through all the Senate races to see what the Democratic chances are in each. We also talked about some concerns about polling and response bias and whether pollsters are getting enough Republicans on the phone to get accurate samples. It was a great conversation. I think you're really going to enjoy it. But also, on the midterm night, you don't have to go it alone. Because to celebrate, to commiserate, to do both, Alex Wagner is going to do a live stream. She's going to be joined by a bunch of your favorite Crooked hosts, including me, Stacey Abrams, Aaron Ryan, Dan Pfeiffer, Lovett, Favreau, everybody.

It's all happening on the Pod Save America YouTube channel on Tuesday, November 3rd at 9:00 p.m. Eastern, 6:00 p.m. Pacific. So, come check it out. Subscribe to Pod Save America on YouTube so you don't miss it. Now, here's Harry. Harry Enten is the chief data analyst for CNN, but he's so much more than just a numbers guy. He gives you the data with pizzazz, usually with my friend John Berman. I love the kind of routine you guys have. Hey, Harry. Great to see you, buddy.

Uh you know what? Anything to help brighten people's mornings with a little bit of numbers. You get both your vegetables, but you get a little dessert as well.

We'll see about the dessert. You also have those just listening and not watching on YouTube, by the way, subscribe to Pod Save America on YouTube. What are you doing? We're trying to build a progressive counterweight to all the right-wing crap on YouTube. Uh here he's got like a beautiful mind background with lots of graphs and charts and numbers. I assume it's all just nonsense here you made up, but it looks cool.

You know what? Any comparison to Russell Crowe, I will take. Yeah, well, you do look like a young Russell Crowe. You also seem to be Donald Trump's favorite uh TV personality or CNN personality. He said, this is a quote, "The best person on CNN is pollster Harry Enten." Is that because he thinks you're hot and have a great ass?

Oh my god. Uh look, I can't comment on other people's backsides. Um you know, I'm about what's up here. I'm pointing to my head. Uh I'm not as much as what is on my back. Uh but, you know what? Maybe he watches, you know, in that case he would be of the same opinion as my mother, that is I'm a good-looking young Jewish boy.

Okay. Let's get to the polls, not the ones anyway. Uh big picture. Historically speaking, one of the iron rules of politics is that the party in power loses seats in the midterms. There are some exceptions, but most of the time the president gets punished in the midterms, especially when his approval rating is low, and Donald Trump's approval rating is quite low. Set the table for us. What is the historical average in terms of the hit the party in power takes, and how do you think Trump's current approval rating impacts the likely outcome here, kind of just big picture?

Yeah, okay. So, you know, you sort of cheated off there if I'm not mistaken. Believe three uh midterm elections since the Civil War in which the White House party did not in fact lose seats in the House. 34 with FDR was one. Uh Bill Clinton 1998 is two, and George W. Bush in 2002 coming off of 9/11 is three. It would be highly unusual for the White House party not to lose at least some seats going into a midterm election. You add that to the fact that there are only two presidents by my count besides Donald Trump who had a sub minus 15 point net approval rating. That's approval rating minus disapproval rating. Only two others besides Donald Trump who had a sub 15 minus 15 point net approval rating. Those being Harry S. Truman going into the 46th midterm and George W. Bush going into the 2006 midterm. And in both of those cases, their parties didn't just lose seats.

They got absolutely shellacked. And they didn't just lose the US House, they lost the US Senate as well.

You don't say. Yes, you don't say. In both of those cases, the opposition party ended up with north of 230 House seats. And so I think, you know, a lot of people have been, you know, at least a few months ago thinking about those redistricting efforts that the Republicans have been doing, thinking about how polarized our politics are, and being like this may just be a midterm Yes, Democrats may gain the House majority, but they won't, you know, quote unquote blow it out. But the historical comparisons that we have to this midterm in terms of the president's unpopularity suggest that it's quite the possibility that Democrats don't just take back the House, but take it back rather easily, at least according to how unpopular Donald John Trump is.

I want to walk through some specifics on the House and then go through some specific Senate races. But first I need to just unload my anxiety on you like you're my therapist. Um the thing that keeps me up at night is polling error and response bias. I think this write-up from a recent New York Times poll of Minnesota summarizes well. I'm just going to read this to you guys. So they they they have Peggy Flanagan, the Democrat in Minnesota, defeating Michelle Tafoya, the Republican, by 54 to 40. So this is from the Times' write-up. This is one of the biggest outliers we've ever published. No non-partisan poll of the race has shown Ms. Flanagan by up more than four percentage points since Labor Day. If the polls or our polls wind up underestimating Republican strength this year, we may look back and say this was the canary in the coal mine, something like the a 2026 equivalent of the Seltzer poll showing Kamala Harris ahead

in neighboring Iowa in 2024. In hindsight and even at the time, that result was clearly a warning sign that pollsters were struggling to reach white working-class voters rather than any indication of Democratic strength. There are good reasons such a warning might come from Minnesota. Unlike every other state we pulled this cycle, Minnesota doesn't have party registration or partisan primary participation on the voter file. As a consequence, we have fewer tools to correct non-response bias. Uh there was a similar article in the Washington Post Friday that talked about the problem of contacting Republicans in Kansas. Harry, do you want to talk me down from the ledge or is it appropriate that I'm kind of sitting up there? How do you think about this problem?

Look, I don't think any of us should be on ledges. Uh I'm a big believer at the end of the day we'll wake up on Wednesday morning and uh hopefully no one's nobody anywhere has jumped off of anything.

Okay. Uh but but what I would say is this. Look, we know that in the Trump era, especially in states that Donald Trump won in the prior presidential election, there has been an underestimation of Republican strength. It's been four points on average in close Senate races. That is Senate races in which the polling average before election day was within five points. You all of a sudden take that and you put it across the Senate map and if it let's say it happened in all the states, then Republicans don't just hold on to the United States Senate, they hold on to with ease.

Of course, that said, that said, this is like I feel like this is the season where I say, "But or however," couching everything just so I still have a job come Thursday morning. No, it's it's because, you know, there there are many different pathways you can take. And I would also say that in 2022, the last midterm that we had, in fact, what you saw was that in 100% of the races that in which they were the close Senate races, right? Five points on either side, the Democrats outperform their final polling in all of them. Pollsters have been trying to attack this problem of underestimating Republicans. The question is did all of that work has all that work actually paid off or not? And if you had the answer, I had that answer, I can assure you I wouldn't be here with you right now.

I I would probably be on some island living somewhere because then I would be all-knowing and know the future and I would be in a much better place than having a uh NHL playoff beard, you might say. Or in this case, the elite up to election uh playoff beard.

Yeah, you'd just be on Calshie betting on races and walking away with a lot of money. Okay. So, that's the anxiety. Those are the things that we're uncertain about, the reason I'm nervous, some of the kind of things in the ether why Democrats I think have PTSD or not and are not as hopeful as the data might suggest they could or should be. But, let's start with the House of Representatives. Uh the Cook Political Report says the most likely outcome at this point is the Democrats flip between 12 and 25 seats, resulting in Democrats holding 227 to 240 House seats uh in the 2027 when 2027 starts the new term. Does that sound right to you? And and is there a broader range that you're kind of thinking about kind of like the hopium to doomer range?

Sure. So, I I I do think that that sounds broadly as a good starting point. And one of the things I think is so interesting, right, is right now if you look at the Cook Political Report or you look at Sabato's Crystal Ball or what have you, um you will see that Democrats reach a majority just by combining the lean, likely, and solid uh categories for them. They don't need any of the toss-up races. That is highly unusual. That has not generally been the case. Uh so, for me, you know, right now I almost think at this point at this point, assuming we know what we're talking about and Tuesday may come and go and it turns out there was something missed, the 225 sort of almost feels much more like a floor than it does like a ceiling.

Okay. If you look at the people who obviously do this mathematically and have built statistical models, they are all north of 230 as the most likely outcome. Uh and you know, I did a YouTube uh exclusive. I I This is one of the most fun things in our era of the you know, of being able to reach people in different you know, mediums. Um is you know, I went on I was like the chance of a blowout and I defined a blowout as 230 or north has been rising and that is absolutely the case. So, I think that that's fine. The 227, the 240, or 230, whatever the exact number was that you said, I think that's perfectly fine. I think that's a nice middle ground, but I really would not be surprised by north of 240. You know, there's there was sort of this analogy that was you know, done I I in terms of if Democrat Democrats get north of let's say, you know, a nine or a 10-point popular vote victory, which some of the generic ballot polling

or some of the national house polling certainly suggests as plausible. You really could end up if you're able to stretch it out, it's not like you go from okay, you know, we we if we are the Democrats, we wouldn't buy nine or Democrats win by nine and then it becomes you know, we gain three seats versus if we go from winning by nine to winning by 10 or 11, it's becomes you may win 10 more seats or 12 more seats, you know, it just you get this sort of deluge as Republicans you know, had when they did the redistricting you either mid-decade

Right. at the end of the last census cycle uh where they tried to essentially say, "Oh, it never get that high." But the levy may in fact be breached. So, that's certainly certainly plausible on on on the hopium side. And I can go through the uh potential worst-case scenario for Democrats, but I've been speaking for a long time and my TV mind is going, "Shut up. Shut up. Shut up. Shut up. Shut up."

We'll stick with the hopium on this one. But so, we got some political junkies listening to this show. They are going to be you know, refreshing the CNN website the second polls close in a lot of these states. What are some bellwether districts you are watching and why? And And what can they tell us kind of early on, maybe some East Coast districts or Eastern Time Zone districts that might help us sort of have a signal about where the night is going?

I mean, look, when the polls close at 6:00 in Kentucky, Kentucky 6, I think is the number one, right? This is the district around Lexington. Ben Chandler back in the day, who is a in a lineage of Happy Chandler for the baseball fans who are out there, who of course was the commissioner when Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier. Had been a long time rep there. That is a Trump district. That Trump won that district rather easily, but has some ancestral Democrat ties to it. There has been some data to to indicate that the Democrat there can in fact may do very well, but truthfully doesn't even need to win there. If that race is close, I think is an indication.

In Indiana, Victoria Spartz's district, the number of which is escaping me right now. That's another indicator, right? If that race is close, not saying that Democrats are going to necessarily flip either of them, but I think those are sort of two places you can sort of sort of start off with. Beyond that, you know, I'm going to be interested at 7:00 p.m., you know, how does Don Davis do in North Carolina? Obviously, there have been some redistricting done there and I'm interested to see if not only if he holds his seat, but whether he does significantly better.

Beyond that, you know, Florida, I'm interested in the Latino districts. Uh, Donald Trump made a lot of gains with Latino voters back in 2024 and putting aside, look, I don't as as we discussed, I don't think that one or two House seats are going to make or break a majority for Democrats, but Latino voters are very, very, very, very, very important and James Tallarico and his hopes to become the first US senator as a Democrat elected from Texas since 1988. So, getting some early signals on the on the Latino vote in and around Orlando down in the Miami-Dade area.

I I think I'll be interested in that as well. Okay, that's good. Good helpful stuff to watch. Today's presenting sponsor is SimpliSafe home security. If your home security has been on your mind lately, there's no better time to protect it than now with SimpliSafe. Right now, you can save 70% on a new system, their biggest savings of the year. Ready to get a dog into the studio?

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for $35 off your first order. Thanks to Wild Alaskan Company for sponsoring this episode. So, the Cook Political Report says the range of outcomes in the Senate, they believe, is Democrats netting two to six seats. We need four for the majority. North Carolina seems like a done deal. Georgia seems like a done deal. If Democrats lose those states, we got big big problems. So, we're just going to set those aside and skip them. Let's start with Texas though. You just mentioned James Tallarico. The latest CNN poll has Tallarico up six points over Ken Paxton. Nate Silver's polling average has Tallarico up 3%.

What is the data telling you about Texas? And what do you think, you know, Tallarico needs to win here? What's like the secret sauce? Okay, so let's let me take it from the other side. If I'm, let's say, a Republican, I'm saying, "Okay, guys, we got to hold this seat. We know that historically we have done very well in Texas. What we just need to do is turn out Republican voters and, you know, get Ken Paxton to essentially equal what Greg Abbott has historically done. And that would be enough even if we lose independents. That's our plan." Here's the problem. The problem is is manifold.

First off, the problem is if you look at, I believe, the last Fox News poll. James Tallarico is getting nearly 30% of non-MAGA Republicans.

Wow. That is a huge huge number. And could potentially you combine that with the fact that he's winning independents by 20, 30, 33, 34 points depending on which poll you're exactly look at after Donald Trump won independents in Texas by a point, that's a problem. And then we spoke about spoke about Latino voters. There's polling that shows James Talarico 30, 40 points with Latino voters potentially in Texas. Donald Trump carried the Latino vote in Texas by 10 points according to the exit polls. You don't have to be a mathematical genius to know that those two numbers don't sound anything alike. Now, here's the question.

The question of course is, I think again a lot of the listeners on here, if you are a Democrat, you are worried about can I trust the polls?

Mhm. Well, here's what I would say. First off, there has not been any example since Lloyd Bentsen was elected in 1988 of a Democrat polling as well as James Talarico is right now. Two, on that same sort of line of thinking, Beto O'Rourke actually outperformed his final polls back in 2018.

Mhm. So, this to me is one of those weird states where if I was skeptical of the polling, yeah, I'm skeptical of it everywhere in so far as, you know, the elections are so tight and small, you know, even small differences in the polls can make a difference. But in terms of the list of states where I am the most skeptical of the polling, Texas is actually in the middle of the group or down near the bottom. I actually believe those polls. Now, the race is tight enough that a four-point switcheroo makes all the difference.

But I I I look at those polls I that to me seems like a real deal, especially considering that Ken Paxton is the least popular GOP nominee in for the Senate in Texas this entire century.

Yeah, I mean this is an interesting state because it's a combination of factors. Like Talarico is good, Paxton is historically awful. Uh the demographics, as you mentioned, are important here. I mean there's a huge Latino vote in Texas. We've seen a big shift there nationally. Trump's approval rating is down.

Awful. I I Yeah, I think I trust the polling. I feel bullish on Texas and trust the polling in Texas in part because what I'm hearing privately from campaigns um tracks with what I'm seeing publicly in public polls, which is Tyler Rico up by a bit. Gina Inahosa maybe having a chance to pull out that governor's race. When you When I hear you say that Tyler Rico is pulling What was it? 30% of non-MAGA Republicans, that makes me wince and worry about response bias because those seem like the kinds of Republicans who might answer a poll, whereas, you know, Trump fans just won't. But, we'll see.

We'll see. We'll see. I mean, look, Ken Paxton still doing very well with MAGA Republicans. Um you know, obviously [clears throat] that's sort in some ways or many ways or is is a self-selecting group in. But, we'll see. We'll see. We'll know sooner enough.

We'll know sooner enough. All right, turn to Michigan. Um so, full disclosure, I have been an Abdul El-Sayed supporter uh since he's a friend. We did a show with him here at Crooked Media, so we're very biased. Uh I think he's a incredibly talented communicator. I think the polling average has him up almost four points uh over Mike Rogers. But, I'm very anxious about the narrative in the closing week. Like, Trump's out there calling Abdul a jihadist. He's questioning his loyalty to America. Uh Haley [snorts] Stevens uh the woman he uh Abdul defeated in the primary and her husband have made these kind of high-profile comments that I find quite unhelpful. Um I know the campaign wants to be focused on the economy cuz that's what voters really care about. This stuff is not focused on the economy, but like I don't How important is the closing couple weeks to you? How much of this do you think is

like Twitter noise versus like what voters are really going to vote on? Uh What do the numbers say here?

Okay. So, this to me is one of the most interesting races in so far as I don't think that the narrative matches what the polling data is showing us. So, we had a CNN poll that had El-Sayed up seven, okay? After just after the primary, Fox had a poll that had them tied. I'm sorry, did not have them tied. Had Mike You can see my my My playoff beard is sort of also emblematic of my lack of sleep. Had Mike Rogers up by four.

Mhm. Obviously, if you look at the average you look at those two polls, there's been a clear shift. You look at the average of polls, there's also been a shift. When you look, for instance, at the issue of Israel, I think a lot, you know, a lot of folks, um some in the media, some in the sort of the you know, the the the the the chattering class, you might say, have thought that that issue would work for Mike Rogers in the general election the way that it seemed to work for El Sayed in the primary. Here's the thing. Is voters who say that Israel's their top policy or say it's, you know, an extremely important in their vote, they're more likely to support El Sayed.

Right. El Sayed's favorables are higher than Mike Rogers's favorables. I like I'm looking at the polling and what I hear in one case doesn't necessarily match up with what the polling is suggesting. That doesn't mean, you know, in the primary, the very limited polling that came out, and it wasn't necessarily the highest quality polling, did overestimate El Sayed. It's possible. It's possible. Anything is possible. But in terms of what I see as the narrative out there versus what the polling data is saying to me, I'm not sure there's a state in which the two of them are further apart um than the Wolverine State.

Yeah, I feel like I I noticed that, too. You were formerly the CEO of Wedgewood polling, right? The

Yes, that's exactly right. Yes, I I I I The polling firm that was faking numbers.

Yes, that's exactly that that that that's exactly who I was. I can I can I You know, it's one of these things. It's so funny. We're a decade ago at 9 years ago. I guess I I should count it as nine. Don't don't make it further along than it than it needs to be happening.

Right. Um a decade ago, I wrote an article, uh you know, for 538, which is where I I was formerly employed, with a very similar thing. And it's one of these issues that I think we sort of have going on right now, and as only as AI has sort of taken things, etc. I I I'm I'm going to be surprised if we we I'd be very surprised if we don't see more attempts at the Wedgwoods.

Yeah, it's too easy to just make up numbers, post them on the internet, get a bunch of people to share them, and you know, get it out into the ether long before, you know, companies like the New York Times or CNN or 538 have a chance 538 RIP have a chance to vet the pollster and the polling and kind of uh dispense with it when it's fake. Um let's turn to Alaska. I was feeling bullish about Alaska. Mary Peltola has outperformed a lot in past elections. She is up nearly four points in the polling average, but then the New York Times came along.

Huge conservative bias over there. I've always said it. of course, that's what the that's always what they've been used

Always been the narrative about the Times. Uh they ran this big story about efforts by Democrats to recruit another guy named Dan Sullivan to run in this race and siphon votes away from Senator Dan Sullivan, the Republican incumbent. Harry, is there any data that can help us assess the impact of this story? And how much like how much stock do you put in the idea of October surprises generally in a cycle like this where the broader story is the economy and inflation and gas prices? And that cake seems pretty baked, especially in Alaska where I think you're talking like $8 a gallon.

Yeah, uh look there are a few things going on. First off, Mary Peltola has absolutely outperformed sort of the baseline that we've seen. You know, she won a house seat in 2022, for example. Now, granted, Sarah Palin wasn't necessarily the strongest of candidates I've ever seen, but she still won one. Uh that being said uh look, Alaska has elected one Democratic senator in the 21st century, and that was Mark Begich in 2008, and his opponent had literally just been convicted in a federal trial in Ted Stevens. If you take that away, the last time that Democrats won a United States Senate race in the great state of Alaska, and it happens to also be the last time they won it in a midterm, was Mike Gravel in 1974.

Uh Gravel, who I think to this audience is probably better known for running for president in 2008 and then also sort of in 2020 and skipping stones along a pond.

Yeah. Uh so Walked away. yes. Uh th- this to me is a tough state to win if you're a Democrat. Now, the fundamentals are there.

[sighs and gasps] I guess the question is does this go beyond the bounds? I I you know, one of the things I

think we've learned in the Trump era is that what we thought were the norms might not have been the norms and you can break norms and be fine.

Yes. Is this nor- is this the norm is this go beyond the normal bounds? Does this go beyond the normal bounds? I don't know the answer to that question. That being said, I laughed to myself insofar as what are we doing? I- i- if if I'm a Democrat, I'm asking myself, what are what are what are we doing? What are And and you know, as I What are you doing? For no other reason, this is a ranked-choice voting state.

It's so stupid. It's so stupid. It's like I I don't know yeah, like the ranked-choice voting piece of it is relevant for listeners just because it means it's it seems less likely that having another Dan Sullivan on the ballot is going to actually impact the vote. But the effort to recruit this guy seems so goddamn ham-handed. And then you have this former Mary Peltola campaign manager who decided to go unburden herself to the New York Times and then try to take it all back like that's a thing you can do just like I retract my quotes and she was going to do a wrongful termination suit to the campaign. It's like seems like you were rightly terminated if you were going to unburden yourself about, you know, all the Anyway, it was just so stupid and messy and foolish and I was like, we don't need to do this, guys. Like I feel like this is obviously not helping her win right now.

No. No. Uh and so look, the other question that I kind of have is because the polling from there has been so limited, I Yeah, I don't even know if we'll be able to measure it. Uh I'm sure there'll be some questions, you know, if some good pollsters will put on their questionnaires, but it's going to be difficult to even measure the exact effect on it. Uh At this point, you know, you look at the prediction markets, we'll get some final polling I'm sure in the last few days. You know, my baseline is maybe you take a point or two off of Petola, but I don't know if that's the right baseline or not, and even if it is, it might not be enough to change the race if the pre if the pre-polling pre this week polling was right on with the result, it may get Sullivan a little bit tighter, but it may not even be enough.

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stamps.com/psa. Taxes and fees apply. All right, so people feel pretty bullish about Ohio, which is surprising to me because Trump won the state by 11 points in 2024. J.D. Vance won pretty overwhelming in 2022. I think he got 53% of the vote.

Won it by six, I think. Yeah, Trump got 53% in 2020. So, it's been a pretty conservative state. Although Sherrod Brown has been, you know, a winning Democrat. He's had the secret sauce to win in Ohio many, many cycles. Um so, right now Nate's polling average has it at 48% for Sherrod Brown. John Husted is at 45%. This is another state where I worry about a polling miss. But what do you think of Sherrod Brown's chances against John Husted's fat, juicy, thick, thick umper.

I mean, let me tell you, I will never be able to think of John Husted the same way ever again after Donald Trump. The way that he's talked about Husted's backside and the way that he's spoken about Ken Paxton and his personal appearance. I have to say Trump does know how to make a line that makes you you remember it automatically.

Yeah. Can you model the value of being kind of kicked up, having like a badonkadonk?

Yeah, I mean, let me tell you, we do have data that indicates that taller presidential candidates do better. Maybe we should be doing some research into how their backsides actually project electoral chances.

Something for 2028, yeah. That's right. That's something for 2020. We're always building towards the future.

Mhm. Uh look, if I'm a Republican in that state, I I say, "Look, we have won uh every statewide race recently. We have had We've been underestimated in the polling. That is absolutely the case." Uh and so I I look and I say, "Maybe this is happening again." And that's something to hang our hats on. That being said, look, who said is an appointed incumbent and there is a massive difference between being appointed and being elected. There is anecdotes out there that suggest that some of the voters in that state of Ohio, the Buckeye State, the Great Buckeye State, actually still think that Sherrod Brown is the incumbent there.

And he has but he has gone on the ballot and won in Senate races in Ohio time and and time out. He did it in Trump's first term first midterm election. I will say that Ohio is one of those states where again, if I were ranking the list, I would put Ohio closer to the top of the list of where I'm the most skeptical of the polling data.

Interesting. Okay. Uh and that is in part because it's a state with a lot of white working-class voters. It's a state, you know, where we looked at the polling in 2020 and, you know, Joe Biden and Donald Trump are pretty gosh darn close and then um Trump blew him out. You look at the polling in 2022 and while Bernie Moreno did seem to pull away from Sherrod Brown near the end, uh a lot of the polling middle of month of October. I don't think Bernie Bernie Moreno actually even popped a polling lead until like late October. I think it was like the 15th to 20th, at least in terms of the polling that I was looking at. So, that's a race where look, Sherrod Brown has won run before, has done well. AI plays in that state in a way that I don't think it plays as much in other states and uh Brown has made a big deal about the data centers there.

Uh and it shows up in the polling data. Um but it's certainly a state where I am I I still think Sherrod Brown's more likely to win than not, but it's certainly the state where I'm the most sort of eyes eyes need to be wide open about the potential for a polling miss.

Interesting, okay. Yeah, we'll share this match, so we'll see if that factors in. Maine is what I'm anxious about. Obviously, the process for going from Grand Platner to Troy Jackson was was not ideal. Um it took him it took Troy Jackson a while to get going as a candidate, I think. Um he was off the trail for a while. He had to raise a lot of money quickly. Susan Collins is a historic over-performer in her elections. The current polling average in Maine has Jackson up 2.5 points, but I also feel like we're not seeing a ton of quality data out of Maine. What is your take on Maine and can you just remind people of the way Susan Collins has over-performed the polls in the past or over-performed, you know, other elections in her state?

Well, first off, both on both of those are the case. The last three election cycles, so this is dating back 2020, 2014, 2008. She's out-performed her polls and not just by a little bit, but I think in each of those cases it was at least five points if not double digits, which was the case in 2020. So, she definitely has a history of doing so. Um and more than that, she's obviously out-performed the partisan baseline, right? Donald Trump lost in Maine rather easily or hard for him and Joe Biden won rather easily in 2020. And then Susan Collins walked to re-election beating her polls very easily.

So, that is all the case. Here's the thing about Maine that I do think is interesting, which is even in those poll those years in which the polling showed that Susan Collins was trailing, it was Sara Gideon back in 2020. She was still better liked than not in the polling. That is her favorable was higher than her unfavorable. That's not the case this year. She her net favorable rating net favorability rating, and I think in our CNN poll was like minus 10, minus 11, minus 12, somewhere in that neighborhood. So, this may be a different climate than we're used to seeing.

Uh and our CNN poll again, we categorize as no clear leader. I think it was something like 49-45 Jackson, something something in that range. It was four points that separating them either way. Uh yeah, I I get it. I I your skepticism again, based upon the fact that Susan Collins has outperformed the polling and seems to pull, you know, a rabbit out of the hat each time. But, I almost I'm like it kind of makes a lot of sense, right? You know, there we're getting more polarized than ever before. Donald Trump is really, really unpopular in Maine. You know, she really hasn't run in a tough year since 2008.

And that was when the correlation That was the same year in which, you know, Mark Pryor was running basically unopposed. I think maybe there's a Green Party candidate running in Arkansas. Uh that that's just a lifetime ago. So, I get your skepticism, but kind of also makes sense to me.

Okay. Okay. Am I more fun to banter with than John Berman, your partner in crime on CNN? I've known John for a long time. He's a very funny guy, but he has to play the straight man on TV. I always wonder why why Let him Let him loose.

I I I I am a fan when you can get Johnny B to go a little loose. Johnny B, you know, he was a Hasty Pudding's guy back at back in his Harvard days. He's a very funny guy and very quick.

that? Oh, is that like a club thing? Yes, it's a club thing. I I dare anyone in the audience to uh uh look him up from his Hasty Pudding days. I think it John probably hates me for it, but I think it I think it's a perfect you know, it it it really encapsulates John of how he's honestly one of the smartest guys that I know. And he's also one of the kindest guys I know. He's also one of the funniest guys that I know.

He's very funny. Does that mean there's like a photo of him like singing in his underwear somewhere? Is that what we're digging up?

I I I I I can't say. You might You might have to Google that out. I'll figure that out. It's probably on a fun saver, so we'll work on that. Iowa looks too close for me. Don't like it. Polling average has Josh Turck ahead of Ashley Hinson by less than a point. Both candidates are at 46. I hate polls. They're at 46 or 47 cuz I feel like they always cut against us at the end. Um there's a libertarian in the race who could siphon some votes away from the Republican. I don't know how impactful that would be, but it's always a good thing for Democrats when your win number is like 49 uh and and not 50. Um the Democrats I talked to are a little worried about Iowa. The best news I've heard from someone very in the know is that Josh and Hinson are tied.

Republicans seem a little bullish. What what what is the number? What is the data telling you on on Iowa?

Uh it's not the 51st seat if I'm a Democrat. Uh that's what it's telling me. I I think Democrats could win there. I think Josh Scherk could win there, uh but it's not the race that I you know, if if Democrats win Iowa, they are winning other states first to get them the majority in the United States Senate. Uh I think the bigger story out of Iowa, to be honest with you, uh is what's happening that gubernatorial race right with Rob Sand. And I I I think that that's somebody is I sort of project out of my own head and I go there's someone who might be running for president one day. He's one of them. Look, Josh Scherk has run a it seems to be a good campaign. Ashley Hinson actually, in terms of the Republican campaigns, has run one of the better ones as well.

Uh I I I look at that race and I say would it surprise me if Josh Scherk won? No, it wouldn't surprise me, but it's also the race where if I were a Democrat, I I I would be more worried about that race in terms of the close race I'm looking at than any other if for no other reason, you know, we talk about polling misses, it's uh Iowa's home to the greatest polling miss I think in the last decade in terms of most notable.

Got it. Rob's going to hate us for mentioning him as a presidential candidate. The only time I think Rob's ever sent me a gruff text was when I mentioned him as a 2028er and she's like, "Dude, come on. That this is not going to happen. I don't want that." Speaking of the these governors' races, um there are a bunch of states where there are these targeted Senate races and targeted governors' races. Uh Gina Inhojosa in Texas, Amy Acton is running against Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio where Vivek is just, you know, in the gutter.

Um Rob Sand in in Iowa that you just mentioned. Um, to what degree do you think we should expect governor and Senate races to be correlated? How much vote switching should we expect these days? What do you think?

It's certainly the highest, you know, look, Phil Scott, although there is some polling to suggest that Phil Scott may lose in Vermont, Republican governor of Vermont, but I think is the favorite in that race. That gives you an idea, right? That that that still there are states that vote one way for, you know, federal races and then in a statewide race can vote a completely other way. You It's more than than you used to expect, but I I wouldn't be surprised by, you know, split verdicts. Texas is an example where I wouldn't be supplied surprised by split verdict. I wouldn't be surprised in even Kansas. I wouldn't be surprised of it in Iowa.

Um, I wouldn't be shocked by it in Ohio, although I think they'll probably both go dem. So I I I think that there could be. There could be some. That that people still are willing to split their ticket. We saw it in 2022. We saw it in 2024. Granted, you know, the Republican candidate for governor in North Carolina in 2024 was not exactly the strongest candidate I have ever seen, but we we we saw it there as well.

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All right, let's talk about some of the kind of best-case scenario for Democrats stretch Senate race states. So, we got Kansas, South Carolina where the New York Times has it tied, uh Nebraska, Florida, Mississippi. Can you like rank some of those in terms of like likelihood of Democrats actually being able to win there and talk about what you're seeing in the data?

I I mean, I think Kansas is the one that's most likely to flip. Mhm. Um you know, for one a few reasons. Number one, the polling that we see out of there. Uh I mean, there have been multiple polls now either showing a tie, a nominal advantage for Hamilton, or in the case of that Washington Post poll, though I you know, you mentioned the write-up at the top about it. Um you know, they were see they seem to be skeptical of their own data.

Yeah, they're very they're really struggling to get Republicans on the phone essentially is the problem.

Correct. That being said, you you know, once fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me, fool you know, etc.

yeah. Correct. Uh you just see that data and you speak to Republicans and they don't think Roger Marshall has run a good campaign.

Yeah. And Adam Hamilton is well known, you know, you know, pastor, etc. Uh fits the right profile in that state, seems to be more popular than that. Roger Marshall, the least popular Republican Senate nominee in Kansas has laid in a campaign this century for sure. You haven't seen polling like this and I looked it up. This laying in a campaign for a Democrat in 30 plus years. I was able to get all the way back to Sam Brownback's first run. I couldn't get any data further back than that. Uh so, I I look at that data and I go yes, and then I will also just know, you know, put the polling aside for a second.

You know, I was interested in sort of Kansas's uh let's say journey in the last few presidential elections and the sort of if you were to rank it out, right? Which states are the most Republican versus the national vote. Uh Kansas used to be be ranked like ninth or 10th and now it's closer to 18th or 19th. It has actually shifted to the left even as it's still been voting for Republicans for presidents. One way to put it is Texas, you know, went went Republican, voted for Donald Trump by 13 points in 2020. For Kansas, went for Donald Trump by 16.

Yes, 16 is slightly bigger than 13, but it ain't that much of a difference between the two of them.

What what about South Carolina? Do you buy that like Darlene Graham is obviously a terrible candidate? We know she had one of the worst debate performances I've ever seen where she was kind of like, I don't do foreign policy. Um I I could imagine a world where voters aren't thrilled to watch you know, uh a Senate seat be be treated like an heirloom that gets passed down in the family uh from Lindsey Graham to her. But like what what do you make of those numbers?

I mean, look, we've now seen a number of polls that show a show a close. But South Carolina is a race very racially polarized state. It's one of those things, you know, when I think of Mississippi or Louisiana, you know, you see South Carolina's when you you know, you you look at the polls, you see it's a racially polarized state. It tends to mean the state is very inelastic. Ergo, you know, the results are always within sort of a certain range. I see a Democrat getting a 45, 46, 47% of the vote. The question is can you really get to 50%?

Right. And that to me, look, I think Andie Andrews has run a good campaign. Um but again, is it possible? Sure. I don't think I would have imagined that we would have gotten a race that was a tie this late in the campaign. But it's I think you're right. It's definitely one of those stretch stretch states.

So, the last three states that I mentioned are Nebraska, Florida, and Mississippi. We had this horrible Supreme Court decision, the Shelby decision, which sort of further gutted the Voting Rights Act. There seems to be some evidence that that decision is driving significant black turnout, especially in southern states. Can you talk about what we're seeing in the early vote data and whether it gives you any hope in these states or should give me hope in these states?

Yeah, I mean, the only thing I ever hope for is a Buffalo Bills Super Bowl. I'm going to be honest with you.

This could [clears throat] be your year. This could be. This The offense is absolutely tremendous, led by Josh Allen. The defense is a train wreck.

Yeah, my Patriots beat your ass, too. Yes, I I I I recall that. It's It's It's one of those I'm going to quickly side sidetrack and then get back on the path. It's like

Josh Allen has like one of the best records ever for when his defense gives up 30 or more points. He has won the majority of those games. I

That's great. insane. It's insane. We'll see. I I hope springs eternal. I'll be up there for Thanksgiving. We'll see what happens.

Nice new stadium. Congrats. It looks beautiful. Thank you. Thank you so much. The taxpayer money very well spent.

I would love to throw you through a table sometime, which is a nice thing if for someone in Buffalo. That's what they do in Buffalo. You just air you know, elbow drop a table.

We'll make it happen. Cool. Um you know, so look, when I look at the early vote data, it's definitely the case that I see that black turnout is up significantly. And obviously, if you're going to do well in a state like South Carolina, if you're a Democrat, you need the black turnout to be sky high. Same thing for Mississippi. Same thing for Louisiana, which is now sort of being bandied about a little bit more than I think we would have been we would have would have thought. Again, these are not close to toss-up races necessarily, but on a very good night for Democrats, you know, it could go high. I would say in all honesty, you know, when I think about the black turnout being up, yes, it's it's it's probably it is certainly helpful in South Carolina, but I think

I think actually two states and two races where I think it could be particularly helpful or at least two states and three races maybe. I think of Georgia governor, Keisha Lance Bottoms trying to become the first black governor of Georgia, first female governor of Georgia. And Jon Ossoff obviously is from winning their rather easily in the polls, but you know, will will Lance Bottoms come along with with him? I also think of Texas which actually has a significant black population as well. It shouldn't be, you know, undervalued there.

And I think of Talarico yes, but I also think of the governor's race as well. So, look, Democrats don't lose when black turnout goes higher and certainly the early vote data and you know, the way I often often see it is when a group of voters believe that their rights to representation or voting is trying to be taken away from them which I think many black voters and certainly many Democrats feel is the case, then they tend to turn out in higher numbers and certainly the early vote is um let's say in line with that.

So, over my years in politics, I have learned not to pay a lot of attention to early vote, not to pay a lot of attention to the first round of exit polls cuz they tend to be misleading or at least revised and often break my heart. But, is there is there anything you're seeing in early vote numbers so far that kind of affirms what you've seen in polling or tells you a story that you find interesting?

I I I I think for the most part early vote is, you know, one of those experiences where you can see what you want to see. I think, you know, you could go to Nevada and obviously Jon Ralston has done the stuff out there and we have a very long baseline. I think you could say that it is good for Democrats. But overall, if I'm being honest, I maybe I'm just not smart enough to understand the early vote data like some people are.

I doubt that. I I I I I tend to be like this is just one of many things. There's nothing Another way to put it is there's been nothing inconsistent with what I see in the polling, with what I see in the early vote data.

And just for listeners, the hard thing to know is like, okay, you see this early vote data, it's heavily Democratic. Is that a sign of more Democratic votes to come, or are Democrats just voting early and we're kind of cannibalizing our election day vote? Because Donald Trump's voters, correct me if I'm wrong here, I mean Donald Trump likes to vote early by mail himself, so does his family. But Donald Trump voters tend to vote on election day and they come out in droves and that's when we end up losing.

That has, at least since COVID, been the case. Right? This is one of these things, one of my favorite little historical anecdotes is the reason that George Bush won the state of Florida in the 2000 election was because he won the absentee vote. Uh Al Gore actually won the in-person election day vote in Florida in 2000. So, what is now might not necessarily be of what used to be. Uh but no, that that for the most part is correct. The one thing I will point out is that I do think the percentage of people voting by mail will be down this year.

Um and that is in part because Democrats are have, you know, are worried with all these new rules that have been put into place in certain states, with some talk about, you know, the USPS and mail voting. Um that they will, in fact, say, "You know what? Why risk it? Let's go vote in person, whether that be early or election day." And that kind of makes it also difficult to understand which is, you know, the votes on election day count just as much as the early vote does and in a midterm election, especially, turnout is the name of the game.

Uh and so, we don't know if the people who are sitting out now are going to show up on election day or they're just going to sit out altogether.

Yeah, good point. Okay, so anyone who is alive in 2020 knows that uh election night is no longer a thing. The counting can take days. Uh I know this is an especially acute challenge for you because there's a scenario where uh some higher-up at CNN gets handcuffs, chains you to a desk, you You get to go home for three, maybe four, maybe five days. When do you think we'll have a good sense of which direction things are heading? Like, what are the key like timing inflection points for you as you're watching these results?

Yeah, I I I I'll tell you this much, which is maybe this is a bit of a surprise. You know, look at the polling data is right. That is, you know, assuming there isn't some last minute October surprise in every state. And assuming that the polling now is what the polling is on Monday a Monday, etc. Um then to me I look at it and I go this may actually be a quote-unquote early night. That is, it won't last days. It last days if we're reliant on Alaska. Or it's a you know, a very tight race in Maine with a vote can sometimes take a little bit of a while and you know, it can can go into go into Wednesday, etc.

Um obviously Alaska with its ranked choice voting it's slow it's relatively slow to count to the other states. And then you have and the ranked choice voting can take a while. Um I think if I if I am a person who's looking at this, I think 2:00 3:00 a.m. we should Uh we will very likely know what what what is going on. Unless Michigan, you know, Michigan we sometimes get those vote drops in from Detroit. Uh that could be the last thing we're looking at. But most of the states they count relatively quickly. And more than that, we will know, you know, we'll get an early idea in Ohio. We will get an early idea in North Carolina, right? We will get these early indicators which will tend to suggest to us what exactly which way the the tide is going. I will note I'll admit I don't I haven't really watched Kansas election nights all that closely.

Nor have I. Nor have I. But I'm excited to try. Uh final question for you. So, we talked at the top about some of the challenges with response bias and pollsters reaching people, right? There both seem to be like more polling than ever before, but also this crisis with people not answering their phones and maybe now not answering online surveys, but at the same time we have all this new data. There's prediction markets and Caltech and Polymarket all this stuff. So as we roll through this election and into 2028, how are you thinking about the health of the kind of polling industry and data analytics and how do you think it's going to evolve as we get closer to, you know, maybe the most consequential election of our lifetimes in 2028?

Yes, every excuse me. They all are. They're all the most consequential election. I've only been hearing that now for forever. Although granted I really wonder if in like 1996, you know, they were like, oh yeah, this is the most consequential election ever between Bob Dole and Bill Clinton which had like no voter turnout. I'm fairly sure most people were like, whatever. I think there was a whole Simpsons about that by the way. Um, look, I think of it in a few ways. One, which is, you know, if you look at the horse race polling, it actually hasn't become less accurate over time really. Yes, 2020 was a big error historically speaking, but 2024 actually was perfectly fine. What has happened is that the races have just simply put become significantly closer. You know, every national presidential election, the national popular vote, has been within single digits since 1988. That is the longest such

stretch since we started counting the popular vote really on a nationwide scale back in 1824. So as long as we keep getting close elections, I think a skeptical eye towards the polling is worthwhile and I'll also note I'm going to be interested to see once assuming Trump does not try to run for a third term and isn't on the ballot, whether or not those biases still exist. That being said, I tend to take a sort of world view of this is I look at all of the data. I look at the all the data. I look at the polling data. I look at the prediction market data. I look at the registration data. I look at the national indicators. I'm of the belief that the more data that you have in there the better and then you can sort of weight up and weight down what you don't think is worthwhile. In terms of the polls themselves and the individual polls, yeah, I think I'm going to take a skeptical eye if I, you

know, go to the website and the persons and the people who are supposedly running the polls don't have pictures or maybe not names. I think that's generally a pretty good idea. Um

Yeah. Yeah. But look, I it's it's sort of the wild west, but I I I welcome people if they want to try and go and poll, but you know what? I deserve the right to then say, you know what? I got to be honest, uh I don't necessarily uh think that the individual who has no experience of this and uh isn't willing to show their face, that I'm not going to use their data.

Should I do a little DIY polling myself? Just call a bunch of people, just ask them questions randomly?

You know, you you you you can certainly uh certainly try. If nothing else, look, you can you can do your own poll, but I I tend to I I tend to think if you call the people you know, they'll probably be more uh

[clears throat] left-leaning uh than than not. It might not be I'm doing a random digit dial. What are you talking about?

Oh, you're going to random digit dial? Like you know, if you if you call cells, I believe uh you still have to do it yourself. You can't get one of those auto- automated things, which I believe you can still only do with uh landlines.

The the final frontier in do-your-own-research uh the narrative. Uh Harry, thank you so much for joining the show. Good luck to you on uh the next couple days. Good luck to your Buffalo Bills. But not that much luck.

Here's the thing, I I will sacrifice a week of sleep for a Bills Super Bowl title. Because where else would you rather be than right here, right now, is what I'd be saying is if the Bills are in the Super Bowl.

Amen to that. All right, that's it from us. Lovett, Favreau, and I will be back with you on election day. Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production. Our show is produced by Austin Fisher, Saul Rubin, McKenna Roberts, and Michael Goldsmith, with Rich Thurlin, Elijah Cohn, and Adrian Hill. Our team includes Matt DeGroot, Ben Herfkott, Jordan Cantor, Charlotte Landis, Kenny Moffitt, Adam Lifton, Joseph Dutra, Desmond Taylor, Dan Faira, David Tolls, Mia Kelman, Ryan Young, and Naomi Singletary. Our staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.

Questions about this episode

Who speaks in "What the FINAL Midterm Polls Reveal About Democrats' Chances (w/ Harry Enten)"?

Tommy Vietor (Host), Harry Enten (Guest), Alex Wagner (Host), Stacey Abrams (Guest), Aaron Ryan (Guest), Dan Pfeiffer (Host), Lovett (Host), Favreau (Guest).

What is "What the FINAL Midterm Polls Reveal About Democrats' Chances (w/ Harry Enten)" about?

The discussion analyzes the final midterm polling, assessing Democrats' chances to win the House and various Senate races, while addressing polling concerns like response bias and Republican sample representation. It highlights how data analyst Harry Enten interprets the polling landscape and what the numbers imply for election outcomes.

What is mentioned in this Pod Save America episode?

139 people, works and ideas are mentioned, including Donald Trump, Harry Enten, Pod Save America, Polling error, Tommy Vietor, Texas. Each one on this page links to its own page with every episode that mentions it.

How long is "What the FINAL Midterm Polls Reveal About Democrats' Chances (w/ Harry Enten)"?

The episode runs 1 h 1 min; the transcript is about 12,159 words in 145 timestamped sections.

More from Pod Save America

About this transcript: the episode's spoken words as captioned on YouTube, split into timestamped sections. Reclip.Me locates every person, work and idea in the text, keeps the time it is first named, and quotes the words around it verbatim. Last updated November 5, 2026.