We Predict a Broncos Upset in the AFC Championship Game | MMQB

What this episode is about

The discussion focuses on the potential for an upset in the AFC Championship Game, highlighting matchups between the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, Seattle Seahawks, and Los Angeles Rams. Key points include the significance of having a healthy quarterback for Denver and drawing parallels to past instances of quarterbacks stepping in late in the season, emphasizing the uniqueness of this scenario compared to historical precedents.

Key takeaways

• Backup quarterbacks can lead teams to glory; history shows it's not just luck but skill and timing.
• Jared Stidum's potential mirrors Bo Nix's spark, highlighting the thin line between mediocrity and brilliance in QBs.
• Four-quarter comebacks define resilience; Bo Nix's record in Denver emphasizes clutch performance over mere yardage.
• Injuries at key moments reshape playoff narratives—could Stidum's rise rival those immortal backup legends?
• Sean Payton's coaching acumen gives underdogs a fighting chance; we often underestimate the power of a great game plan.

Who speaks in this episode?

• Albert Breer (Guest) · 11 min speaking

What is discussed, and when

1. 0:00 – 3:00: Jeff Hostetler, Carson Wentz, Jared Stidum, Denver Broncos
2. 3:00 – 6:00: Jared Stidum, Shawn Peyton, New England Patriots
3. 6:00 – 9:00: JK Dobbins, Denver Broncos, Shawn Peyton
4. 15:00 – 18:00: Jared Stidum

Notable quotes from "We Predict a Broncos Upset in the AFC Championship Game | MMQB"

• Although this kind of makes it interesting, too, because I think this is border. Did anybody find a precedent for this? cuz like I don't like Nick Fos, Jeff Hostettler, Curt Warner, Tom Brady, those were all like either before the season or.

  about Jeff Hostetler · at 0:22

• So that was relatively close. Carson Wentz. I have to look this up, but I think Carson Wentz was like injured right around the same time. and he was an MVP candidate in 17. but…

  about Carson Wentz · at 1:47

• Bit. and I don't want to belabor the point, but I still don't see, this is going to sound ridiculous, but I don't see a massive gap between seventh year Jared Stidum and…

  about Jared Stidum · at 2:41

• Because if JK Dobbins is in this game, Denver's a little different offensively.

  about JK Dobbins · at 6:40

• This is a shot for Shawn Peyton to become a Pro Football Hall of Famer.

  about Shawn Peyton · at 8:32

• Paul Brown at Ohio State. How about that? Of course. yeah. So, like I like I think this is an opportunity for Shawn Payeyton to become a Hall of Famer, and I.

  about Denver Broncos · at 13:15

Who and what is mentioned in this episode?

People

• Jared Stidum — Person · Primary subject (backup QB thrust into spotlight) · 4 mentions · first at 2:52
  Core of the segment: whether Stidham can run Payton’s offense and match Bo Nix’s late-game playmaking, with discussion of his prior stints (Patriots/Raiders) and perceived scouting profile.
• Bo Nix — Person · Injured starter / comparison point · 5 mentions
  Used as the benchmark for what Denver loses at QB—especially late-game performance (fourth-quarter comebacks) and big-time throws—framing the question of whether Stidham can replicate it.
  Bit. and I don't want to belabor the point, but I still don't see, this is going to sound ridiculous, but I don't see a massive gap between seventh year Jared Stidum and…
• Shawn Peyton — Person · Referenced coach / central decision-maker · 2 mentions · first at 4:24
  Discussed as the Broncos head coach whose QB-management (moving from Bo Nix to Jarrett Stidham) and track record with backups could define the playoff run and his Hall of Fame case.
• Teddy Bridgewater — Person · Supporting precedent (Payton’s backup-QB success) · 4 mentions
  Cited as the best example of Payton successfully managing a backup QB situation (Bridgewater going 5-0 in 2019 after Drew Brees’ injury).
• JK Dobbins — Person · Key injury/availability factor (run game + pass pro) · 3 mentions · first at 6:36
  Positioned as an underrated swing factor for Denver’s offense: a three-down back who boosts rushing efficiency and pass protection, affecting Bo Nix/Stidham’s sack exposure.
• Jeff Hostetler — Person · Historical precedent (late-season replacement QB) · 2 mentions · first at 0:55
  Used to compare timing/runway of a QB injury replacement; the speakers cite Phil Simms’ Week 15 injury and Hostetler starting late regular season plus playoffs.
• Carson Wentz — Person · Historical precedent (late-season QB injury timing) · 2 mentions · first at 0:41
  Referenced as a comparable case for injury timing (December) and team runway to reset, contrasted with the current scenario being discussed.
• Phil Simms — Person · Historical precedent (starter injured; backup takes over) · 1 mention · first at 1:19
  Used to anchor the Hostetler precedent: Simms’ Week 15 injury date is cited to show how much runway the replacement QB had before the playoffs.
  I'll look at it. So, 1990, Phil Sims, which they beat a really good Buffalo team. Yeah. His last game, Phil Sim's last game was week 15. So that was December 15th. So Jeff…

Companies & orgs

• Denver Broncos — Company · Business focus · 2 mentions · first at 0:00
  Primary team discussed in the podcast, focusing on their performance and strategy with a backup quarterback.
• New England Patriots — Company · Business focus · 2 mentions · first at 0:00
  Opposing team to the Denver Broncos, discussed in the context of their upcoming game and strategy.
  And I can't wait to see what this looks like cuz I think they're going to win, Albert. They're going to go to the Super Bowl. They're going to beat the Patriots. Yes. I am I'm so certain of it.
• Pro Football Reference — Company · Referenced work · 1 mention · first at 1:32
  Mentioned as a resource for historical football data and statistics.
  Sim's last game was week 15. So that was December 15th. So Jeff Hostettler's runway that year was, and again, thank you to Pro Football Reference for making all this so easily…

Full transcript with timestamps

0:00 We got Denver and New England on one end and we have Seattle and the Rams on the other. Essentially what I wanted. I would have swapped out the Patriots for the Bills. But this is pretty close to what I would have asked for if you could uh if I could break down the entire situation and pick exactly what I wanted.

0:17 Well, and a healthy quarterback right for Denver. Yeah. Yeah. I think that's part

0:22 Although this kind of makes it interesting, too, because I think this is border. Did anybody find a precedent for this? cuz like I don't like Nick Fos, Jeff Hostettler, Curt Warner, um Tom Brady, those were all like either before the season or earlier in the season. Like I think the latest one of the injuries there was probably either Phil Sims or or Carson Wentz, right? Like where and those were in like December. So those teams still had a chance to reset. I I can't think of a scenario like this. Frank Reich, you know, in 1992.

0:55 You said Jeff Hostetler, right? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, Jeff, but Jeff Hostetler, I'll look it up, but Phil Sims, I believe, got hurt. I want to say Phil Sims got hurt in December of that year. So, Hosteller had played like Hosteller was their quarterback in the playoffs. Like, this is different than that. You know what I mean? Like,

1:13 right. I mean, I'll look at it. So, 1990, Phil Sims, which they beat a really good Buffalo team. Yeah. His last game, Phil Sim's last game was week 15. So that was December 15th. So Jeff Hostettler's runway that year was, and again, thank you to Pro Football Reference for making all this so easily searchable. Um, yeah, I mean, Jeff Hostetler started two regular season games um at the very end and then was their quarterback in the playoffs. Okay,

1:47 so that was relatively close. Carson Wentz. I mean, I have to look this up, but I think Carson Wentz was like injured right around the same time. Um, and he was an MVP candidate in 17. Uh, but I mean, I think he was Yeah. So, his last game was December 10th, so Fos was their starter for the last three regular season games. So, this is like marketkedly different than those. Um, Tom Brady was I mean, it was right after 911, so it was in September. They threw blood. so got hurt and Curt Warner that Trent Green Curt Warner thing. Trent Green got hurt in camp in in in a preseason game, you know. So, like these were I mean examples of teams winning Super Bowl backup quarterbacks, but not quite the same as this one. This one would be I'm pretty impressive if they pulled off.

2:38 Yeah. And but here's the thing, though, and you and I talked about this a little bit. Um, and I don't want to belabor the point, but I I still don't see, this is going to sound ridiculous, but I don't see a massive gap between seventh year Jared Stidum and secondyear Boon Knicks. Is that crazy to say? Like I I mean if STDM played the way that he did for like a middling RA uh Raiders team uh in that playoff game, they go to the Super Bowl and they might even be, you know, whatever like a onepoint underdog or one and a half point underdog in that game.

3:12 So we've had this argument before and we've like I I think I I think the first three and a half quarters you're probably right.

3:24 Yeah. I I just the thing I think Bo Knicks hasn't gotten quite enough credit for is like that number the seven fourth quarter comebacks which I believe again is a franchise record for a franchise that had Pton Manning and John Elway right so seven fourth quarter comebacks in a single season then then an eighth fourth quarter comeback against Buffalo um you know I think that's a that that's not happen stance he wasn't just on the scene for those you know what I mean like he made big throws And a lot of those games, like I I still can't get the throws he made in that Giants game out of my head. Um that throw to Mims that he made in the fourth quarter to bring Denver back on Saturday was unbelievable. You know what I mean? Like that was a a downfield small window throw. So Knicks has made big plays. Um my question is going to be like, you know, can Jared Stidum do that? if the if the Broncos can muddy the game up and

4:20 get it to the fourth quarter, can st him make the plays that he needs to make at the end of the game. But Shawn Peyton has shown an ability to do this. I mean, I was to me like the best example um was Teddy Bridgewwater coming in in 2019 for him. Yeah. When Drew Brees got hurt.

4:36 So Teddy Bridgewwater was 5-0. Okay. He completed 68% of his passes, 1384 yards, nine touchdowns, two picks, and his quarterback rating was 99.1. So, um, I'm not saying Jared Sidum is Teddy Bridgewwater. Teddy Bridgewwater is a first first round pick. Sidum was a fourth round pick. But, I mean, I I just know the people who've been around him and who who've coached him have a lot of confidence in him. I'll read if you want, I can read a text from someone

5:08 Yeah. who's worked with him. Um, where he said, "Love City, athletic, smart, accurate, very similar play style to Bo. Will move and make plays off schedule, but has talent to stay in the pocket and make all the throws." Um, and then, you know, he cited a couple games that he's played. Um, there was one, um,

5:28 Mel Kyper's texting you. Is that Mel Kyper? It's not Mel Kyper, but it's somebody who's it's somebody who's worked with Jared Sidum and like and we've seen flashes from him. Um New England was going to go with him in 2020 and I think they might have if COVID didn't happen and like COVID happened, you know, of course. And so that cost Jared Stidum the spring, which this is coming out of Brady, right? Like so they lose Brady to Tampa and they didn't do anything. Um they didn't sign anybody. They didn't make any move to replace Brady. They were essentially going with Jared Sidum. Um, and then, you know, you lose OTAAS in mini camp in the spring and they got to, I think it was right around the 4th of July and and and they wanted more experience, so they signed Cam Newton and Cam Newton winds up being their quarterback that year. Um, but Stenham's played good in spots like when he had to come in and replace Derek Carr

6:24 when the Raiders benched Eric Carr in 22. um you know when he came in for Russell Wilson in 23. So

6:31 I I think there's reason to believe he can play well. Um you know what I think is like an underrated key here is JK Dobbins.

6:39 Yes. Because if JK Dobbins is in this game, Denver's a little different offensively.

6:45 100%. I look this up because I love RJ Harvey, right? But JK Dobbins is like a true three down back. R.J. Harvey is a little bit more. It'd be like the equivalent for New England. You know, they have Stevenson and Henderson and their and their running game wasn't quite the same when Stevenson was out. Right.

7:02 Right. It's the same sort of thing. You know what I mean? Like Harvey's a really good player and you can use him a million different ways, but Dobbins is like the the workhorse. And I looked this up. I thought this was really interesting. So, he got hurt in their ninth game, right? In five of their first eight games, they had 130 yards rushing or more. And since then they've only hit that number once. So like I think if you if JK Dobbins adds something to the run game, you have Luke Watenber. It looks like he's going to be back, you know, who's a really important piece of their offensive line.

7:35 Um you have a chance to manage it a little bit differently. I'm looking too at I think uh some other numbers here which are a little bit more important and that without JK Dobbins uh we've had a couple disastrous multi-sack games for Bon Knicks. So before that um I I think the numbers are about similar but there are fewer games without JK Dobbins than with but you have a four sack game in that loss to the Chargers. you have a three sack game in a loss to the Raiders and you have a multi-sack game and a loss um to the Chiefs that you didn't give up more than two sacks in a game at all prior to that and he's a little bit more of a banger in the back field like RJ Harvey is not going to be your dog in pass protection and I think that that's a big part of it too.

8:23 I mean it's security blanket issue for Boon Knicks more than anything you know. Yep. This is a shot.

8:29 I was just thinking about this when you were saying that. This is a shot for Shawn Peyton to become a Pro Football Hall of Famer.

8:36 We talked about that with Stafford, right? We've talked about that with Stafford and how like Stafford I think Stafford wins the Super Bowl this year, he's he's getting a gold jacket, right? Like I think it's I think it's I think if he wins the Super Bowl like and maybe he will either way, I think it's going to be more difficult with all these quarterbacks that are in the mix now. your elis, your Philip Rivers, your I you know I I I presume when's is Rothosberger eligible next year, right? I think it is.

9:03 Why wouldn't he been Oh, wait. Him and Eli didn't uh retire. No, no, no, no. But Rothosberger retired. So, I think he's five years out next year. So, I think he'll be eligible next year. And maybe Rothosberger is an easier case. But I I think it's we it's it's a tough it's going to be tough for quarterbacks to get in. You know, I just think like once you get past the Aaron Rogers, Drew Brees, like once you get down to the next level,

9:27 so is is Stafford on that like Rogers Breeze tier, right? You know what I mean? Like, and he probably is like close now anyway, but if he wins a second Super Bowl, I think he becomes a no doubter. Well, wouldn't you say like does Shawn Payeyton become a no doubter if he wins with like in this scenario?

9:42 Yeah. You think about it, winning, how many people, like how many people have won Super Bowls with two teams? No one, right?

9:51 Um, am I wrong about that? Well, I'm by my brain freeze right now. I was just thinking about this. No one, right?

9:58 You keep talking. I'll find that out. An AI will find out for you. Yeah. Yeah. Um, but like winning Super Bowls with multiple teams, doing what he did in New Orleans, which I think was more significant than just winning a Super Bowl, and then, you know, coming back with the Broncos and like winning with a backup quarterback. I mean, it'd be tough to leave him out if that's his case.

10:23 So, seven head coaches have taken two different teams, right? I know there are a lot of those. Parcels,

10:30 Andy Reed, John Fox, Mike Homegrren, Bill Parcels, Dan Reeves, Dick Vermile, Don Chula,

10:36 right? Um, but if you, you know, there's the, uh, coaches who have won Super Bowls with different teams if you count there being assistants, you know. Um, but yeah, that doesn't count.

10:50 Yeah. Um, there's Don Don wasn't the coach of the Colts team that wants Super Bowl five. He wasn't, right?

10:56 He was already in Miami. No. Yeah. Okay. Okay. So, anyway, I mean, it's Am I see now we're doing a history lesson, a Google history lesson now, like live on the podcast, which I mean, the young kids out there who who aspire to be podcasters should be paying attention to this.

11:14 Yeah. You guys need to uh what you need to do is you need to stretch out your voice. You need to

11:23 give more pregnant pauses between uh sentences. It's basically the verbal equivalent of when you were turning in a paper in college and you made the spaces between the lines just a little bit bigger or I was always a guy

11:37 and this was the biggest hack honestly if you're still writing papers don't use AI first of all but the biggest hack and this will get you a guaranteed half page okay guaranteed and no one would be able to tell the difference all the periods in your paper and just increase the size of the periods, nothing else. So, if you have 11 font, make the periods 12 and that will jack your paper up at least half a page. I promise you.

12:08 Oh, we going like down the like the courier new conversation here. Like time whatever Times New Roman, whatever you want to do, Albert, you take that.

12:16 Courier New was the one. Courier New was the one back in the day. Okay. So, here. So, this is interesting, right? I I I don't know if I realized this. Don Shula left the Colts in 69 after the 69 season. They won in 70.

12:33 So, how much pressure must there have been on Don Shula then? I mean, can you imagine the conversation on first take back then?

12:44 And then and then Don Shula wins the Super Bowl uh in 71 and 72, I think. So, yeah. Yeah, that's uh that I Yeah, but so Don Schul did, but that this would give you the chance, you know, this would if you're the um this this would and the new head coach, by the way, that won. I was like, that's what I was stalling here for. Don McAffrey replaced Don Shula and uh and then and won the Super Bowl.

13:11 Wow. How about that? Um well, Ohio State guy played play played for Paul Brown at Ohio State. How about that? Of

13:18 course. Um, yeah. So, like I I like I think this is an opportunity for Shawn Payeyton to become a Hall of Famer, you know,

13:27 and I I can't wait to see what this looks like cuz I think they're going to win, Albert. They're going to go to the Super Bowl. They're going to beat the Patriots. Yes. I am I'm so certain of it. I am so certain of it because

13:45 well the minute like did you see what Milton Williams said yesterday? No. Like did uh somebody asked him um about somebody asked him about Jared Stdum and his response was uh let me pull this up here. Um what do you know? Somebody asked him what do you know about about Jared?

14:05 Good question. Here's his answer. Nothing. I ain't going to lie. Nothing. We're gonna watch the tape on him and figure out what he likes to do. But no, they didn't like him over Bo Knicks. So,

14:21 there's two distinct paths here if you're New England, which you think Denver, how long do you think it took the Broncos to get a hold of that video?

14:29 Probably about as fast as it took the Jaguars to get everything that Shawn Payeyton said about them at their press conference. You know, uh, this is a season of unforced errors for everybody. But um I I listen and let's do this first because I was going to talk about the Bills and uh we're going to talk about some coaching search updates, but let's let's do the playoffs first because we're already comfortably into the group into the groove here. There's two different before we get into the kind of the schematics of it. You there's two different paths you can take here. And I do think that the the emotional is important. Uh Vrabel is a master of this. Shawn Payeyton I, you know, I think is good at motivating his own team, but when it comes to dealing with the the cross team, uh, side of it, I think sometimes does make some unforced errors like we like we mentioned before. But if you're verbal,

15:19 do you empower your guys to come out there and say, "I don't give a flying you know what about Jared Stidum." or do you do the complete opposite which is and I forget what coach made like a living out of this but would just talk well Bichc was good at it too like talking about everybody like their Vince Lombardi you know what I mean? Yeah, I mean it could be it could be like that you're like looking to build confidence in your team and so like yeah we don't think much of Jared Stidom like I think the opposite happened like on Saturday right like when Shawn Payeyton called a second press conference you know to announce to everybody to announce the world in the immediate aftermath you know I can't remember the last time I saw a coach do that

15:58 right and tell everybody that Bo Nick is out for the season well why did he do it I think it was to show everybody and I think this was Good leadership by him. Show everybody

16:09 we're good with Jared Sidum, right? We don't need to we don't need to PR this. I'm gonna get out here and I'm gonna tell you like we're good, you know, like we're very we're we're very disappointed for Bo. Sucks, but like we've got the utmost confidence in in Jared St. and and look like I think you can always follow the money on these things, right? If the if the Broncos didn't think he was much, they wouldn't have given him the contract they gave him, right? They had him in the building for two years,

16:36 right? They brought him in because they knew he could handle the volume of Payton's offense because he had played for Josh McDaniels, which is another interesting twist for this whole thing. Both in both in New England and Vegas and he was there for two years and was really good for Bon Knicks over those two over over the last year. Was important in the like offloading process the year before of Russell Wilson and they made loading process is such a funny way of putting what happened to Russell Wilson and not hurling him out of a cargo jet at 30,000 ft and giving him the middle finger on the way down. Yeah.

17:15 Yeah, that was that was another interesting scenario where some things were said that couldn't be taken back. But uh

17:20 yeah, I uh but but I I think and that was so predictable by the way from the start that that was going to be the end but um the end of it. But I think, you know, I I like I like I I I do think Shawn Payeyton like with the amount of like the the the the the the amount of time he spends on that position in particular and has spent on that position in particular as a coach and how much pride he takes in having that position right. Um, and we've seen him invest in the past in backups and with Teddy Bridgewwater and Taesm Hill in New Orleans. Um, he has a really good idea of what he wants and what he's comfortable with and who can run his offense. And I mean, I I don't think Jared Sam's going to throw for 300 yards, don't get me wrong, you know, but I think he's going to be competent, you know,

18:18 right? I think he's going to be competent and I think like the job of the Broncos offense on Sunday is going to be to drag that game into a dark alley and say we are going to get into a street fight with

Questions about this episode

Who speaks in "We Predict a Broncos Upset in the AFC Championship Game | MMQB"?

Albert Breer (Guest).

What is "We Predict a Broncos Upset in the AFC Championship Game | MMQB" about?

The discussion focuses on the potential for an upset in the AFC Championship Game, highlighting matchups between the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, Seattle Seahawks, and Los Angeles Rams. Key points include the significance of having a healthy quarterback for Denver and drawing parallels to past instances of quarterbacks stepping in late in the season, emphasizing the uniqueness of this…

What is mentioned in this Sports Illustrated episode?

11 people, works and ideas are mentioned, including Jared Stidum, Bo Nix, Denver Broncos, Shawn Peyton, New England Patriots, Teddy Bridgewater. Each one on this page links to its own page with every episode that mentions it.

How long is "We Predict a Broncos Upset in the AFC Championship Game | MMQB"?

The episode runs 19 min; the transcript is about 3,521 words in 53 timestamped sections.

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