Geopolitics Expert: The Real Reason America Captured Maduro | Ryan McBeth

Who speaks in this episode?

• Ryan McBth (Guest)

What is discussed, and when

1. 0:00 – 10:00: Simón Bolívar, Ryan McBth, Cuban missile crisis, FARC
2. 20:00 – 30:00: Ryan McBth
3. 40:00 – 50:00: Ryan McBth

Notable quotes from "Geopolitics Expert: The Real Reason America Captured Maduro | Ryan McBeth"

• Ryan, McBth,, thanks, for, coming, back, on the show, man. I can always count on you to come on and talk about In fact, now that I think about it every time you're on the show, there's a.

  about Ryan McBth · at 0:43

• You can't just have weapons, military bases, resources in our own backyard.

  about Cuban missile crisis · at 8:30

• Yeah,, you're, absolutely, correct., There is drug stuff going on. for the longest time, Venezuela actually allowed the FARC, which was a Colombian terrorist organization, to kind of hang out inside of Venezuela. think in 2001.

  about FARC · at 9:32

Who and what is mentioned in this episode?

People

• Ryan McBth — Person · Main guest (returning) · 3 mentions · first at 0:43
  Guest providing the bulk of the geopolitical and military-operations analysis: Venezuela’s history, oil strategy, China/Taiwan timeline claims, and military capability discussion (air defenses, SEAD, etc.).
• Simón Bolívar — Person · Historical reference (independence-era leader) · 2 mentions · first at 1:23
  Used to provide historical grounding for Venezuela’s origins and identity (Grand Colombia), framing national pride and the long arc leading to modern political structures.
  Venezuela, this Maduro guy, there's a lot of oil. The end. People don't know that Venezuela essentially was like part of a federation that was essentially Grand Colombia back…

Companies & orgs

• FARC — Company · Referenced organization · 1 mention · first at 9:35
  Mentioned as a Colombian terrorist organization with activities in Venezuela.

Places & events

• Cuban missile crisis — Event · Historical comparison · 1 mention · first at 8:27
  Used as a historical parallel to discuss current strategic tensions involving Venezuela.

Full transcript with timestamps

0:00 It's not necessarily about Venezuela oil. President Trump didn't help when he goes off script and goes, "We're going to take the oil." Oh god, why did you say that?

0:08 We, got, Maduro., What's, going, to, happen, to that guy? Is he sharing a cell with Diddy?

0:12 I, guess, we, took, both, of, their, oil. Who, is, Maduro, loyal, to? A, lot, of, people, criticize, President Trump. And don't get me wrong, there's plenty of things to criticize him about but this believer is actually not one of those things.

0:22 And, I, think, that, just, pissed, off, Trump and his buddies enough where they were like, "Kick this door in extra hard." Former Vice President Harris went on Twitter and said, "How dare Trump grab Maduro?" Wait a minute.

0:34 Most, of, Venezuelan, oil, goes, to, China. We, are, likely, to, be, at, war, with, China. Xi Jinping has told his army to be ready by 2027.

0:41 What, is, going, to, happen, next, with, this? Ryan, McBth,, thanks, for, coming, back, on the show, man. You know, I can always count on you to come on and talk about In fact, now that I think about it every time you're on the show, there's a major world event or disaster. Coincidence? I think. No.

0:55 Yeah., I'd, like, to, know, why, I'm, always, on Out of the Loop. I don't get my own show,

1:00 you, know., It, would, be, great, if, I, could have my own show for once. Yeah., Yeah., Yeah., I, mean,

1:04 I, get, a, little, picture,, you, know,, with, a little picture of my face. Little

1:09 I'll, give, you, some, show, art, at, some point. Don't worry. Now,, we, got, to, talk, about, Venezuela.

1:13 Let's, talk, about, Venezuela., I, want, to, I actually want to kind of go a little bit deep because I think people they're like Venezuela, this Maduro guy, there's a lot of oil. The end. People don't know that Venezuela essentially was like part of a federation that was essentially Grand Colombia back in the day led by Bolivar and wasn't you know they like can we do can we do a little bit of that the 19th century kind of stuff?

1:38 Absolutely., It's, it's, actually, a, really fascinating story. These are very proud people. So, Venezuela, I mean, it it was home to many numerous Native American tribes until 1522 when the Spanish colonizers claimed the region. And Venezuela actually means little Venice because the colonizers, the Spanish saw like there were these houses on stilts in the water and it kind of reminded them of Venice. Well, then in the 1800s this whole independence movement gained traction in South America. And back then, Venezuela was part of, you're absolutely correct, Grand Colombia, led by Simone Bolivar. And Grand Colombia was like Colombia, um, Panama and Venezuela. And then Venezuela became a republic in 1830, I believe.

2:26 So,, what, you, mainly, saw, during, like, the 19th century were these chieftains Kaidos, I think they're called, who dominated, I think, Killos where everyone cringing. You know what? I uh I I can speak Arabic a lot better.

2:42 Yeah,, we'll, just, say, Cadillos, and, it'll be good enough. Killos., Okay. Taco, Bell.

2:49 Uh, that, that, began, to, change, like, uh, in 1914 when oil was discovered and production started to kick off in like 1922 and the country became like a pretty wealthy and prosperous democracy in Latin America.

3:06 Mhm., Okay., And, then, cold, war, changed that or what what happened? Uh, it, was, actually, fairly, stable, during the cold war. What changed it was a coup in 1992. So Hugo Chavez who at the time was a colonel in the Venezuelan army. He uh he uh started a coup against the government and the coup failed and he was actually thrown in jail and then in he was released I believe two three years later and then he ran for president. So you can actually imagine that happening like in America, right? you go to jail for trying to overthrow the government and then you become president. And uh Hugo Chavez was elected president in 1998 and he immediately started rewriting the constitution. And a lot of people liked this guy because like he promised to redistribute the oil wealth and he challenged kind of the old elite rulers of the country. and he started what they call the Bolivarian Revolution, which

4:06 was kind of like a combination of social welfare, state control of of key industries like oil and anti-establishment rhetoric. And for a lot of people, it brought tangible benefits until one day it kind of didn't.

4:19 I, mean,, is, this, one, of, the, president kind of presidents that runs for election and goes, "Well, we don't need those pesky elections anymore. You got the right guy in charge. We're not doing that again until I die."

4:29 Well,, not, not, initially,, right?, like initially like you know Hitler was voted in as well right uh people like this guy and there were some benefits with uh social programs uh but that it's kind of have you ever heard the term Dutch disease

4:44 yeah, but, I, don't, know, what, it, means okay, so, Dutch sounds, like, an, FTD

4:49 absolutely, right, so, uh, Dutch, disease, is this uh concept where when you suddenly discover oil or really any kind of mineral right any country that that extracts minerals as their primary income. When they get this sudden influx of cash, a lot of times they start spreading it around and they start all these social programs. And that is great until the price of that commodity suddenly collapses. And that's kind of what we saw in 2010 where you had all these social programs. The economy suddenly collapsed because oil prices fell, investment dried up, and corruption started to spread. This led to hyperinflation, medicine shortages crime, and mass migration. And um the uh this was only exacerbated by Maduro when he eventually came into power. But I bet you're going to ask me to get to that.

5:46 Yeah., Uh, that, exactly, good, call., Well,, I think a lot of people are probably wondering like, "Okay, but I'm working in Michigan or Ohio or Nebraska. Why should I care about Venezuela at all right now?"

6:02 So,, the, the, the, short, answer, is, oil, right? That's the answer a lot of people understand. Oh, Venezuela has oil. But Venezuela is actually a very strategic uh region for the United States. And that is because we are looking out at a time horizon of 2027 or 2028 when we are likely to be at war with China over Taiwan. China is likely to invade Taiwan in 2027 or 2028. Uh they've Xi Jinping has told his army to be ready by 2027. My estimate is it'll be in uh May, March or October of 2028 because that's when those are the two windows where the sea state is calm enough to allow for an invasion and uh it's also during a presidential election cycle and America can be very indecisive during a presidential election. But if if Venezuela, who has been leaning towards China, been leaning toward Russia, been leaning toward Iran. If Venezuela is filled up with Chinese weapons, then it becomes a very strategic location

7:07 because they can launch those weapons at ships that are trying to transit the Panama Canal. So, if we're trying to move ships from the Atlantic over to the Pacific, we're going to transit the Panama Canal. And Venezuela could launch Chinese anti- uh ship missiles at those ships. They could also host things like Chinese container ships. There are Chinese container ships that open up. The tops open up and there are missiles on, you know, inside those shipping containers.

7:35 So,, this, is, kind, of, like, they, could become like the the Houthies of the Panama Canal.

7:40 Absolutely., That, that's, an, excellent, way of putting it. They could become the Houthies of the Panama Canal. And a good portion of our oil refining is done on the Gulf Coast. I don't know whether it's the Gulf of Mexico or the Gulf of America, but we're just going to call the Gulf Coast. Talking Galveastston New Orleans, Houston. So, if you're close enough with long range cruise missiles and long-range precision fires you could fire missiles at America and hit some of those oil plants. That's why I've said it's about oil, but it's not necessarily about Venezuela oil. It's about our oil because we have so many refineries on the Gulf Coast that are within striking range of intermediate range missiles or even cruise missiles or long range drones from Venezuela or from ships operating out of Venezuela.

8:27 Right., So,, we, can't, just, let, this, is like Cuban missile crisis stuff, right? You can't just have weapons, military bases, resources in our own backyard.

8:35 You're, absolutely, correct., It's long-term thinking. A lot of people criticize President Trump because during the don't get me wrong, there's plenty of things to criticize him about, but this believer out is actually not one of those things. He said in his speech like, "Well, we're going to take the all. We're going to make sure the oil is okay." But before he said that, he said "We need to have good neighbors." And that's the part that you need to you need to remember. We need to have good neighbors because we're trying to make sure that South America is essentially an American lake, right? The Caribbean is an American lake and we want Chinese influence and Russian influence and Iranian influence the heck out of there so we don't have our back door open when this war in Taiwan comes.

9:19 I, see., Yeah., So, Venezuela's, like, energy, migration, maybe some other transnational crime depending on the drug stuff if that exists or not and great power competition basically in one box.

9:32 Yeah,, you're, absolutely, correct., There is drug stuff going on. Uh for the longest time, Venezuela actually allowed the FARC, which was a Colombian terrorist organization, to kind of hang out inside of Venezuela. uh think in 2001 uh 2021 and uh 2022 there was there were clashes on the border because the FARC wanted to run this this um this drug route and I guess they didn't pay off the local Venezuelan commander and so there were clashes and Venezuela went in with their army and they got their butts handed to them by the FARC.

10:06 Wow., So,, that, didn't, work, out, too, well for Venezuela. But, uh, that's kind of one of the issues you have when you have a military that's what's called a, um, a Palace Guard or internal security military. Uh, they're not an offensive military. Um, that's one of the reasons people ask me, don't do a video on Venezuela maybe invading Gana. And I this was two years ago when this was coming up. And I'm like

10:30 there's, no, way, on, heck, they, would, ever invade Gana right?, because, they, don't, have, the calories. They don't have the calories to physically march across all that jungle to uh to actually occupy Gana nor do they have the logistical base or or uh or any combat experience really uh to undertake an operation like that.

10:52 Right., Because, their, job, is, just, to, keep Maduro in power and and that's all they they are trained to do.

10:58 You're, absolutely, correct., I've, often said there's four kinds of armies in the world. There's expeditionary armies of which there's really only four and a half. The US, the UK, France, Russia and to a lesser extent, China. They're the half. And there's um there's defensive armies. Most of the armies of Europe are defensive. Then you have internal security armies. Most of the army of South America is internal security. And they mainly fight rebels. And then you have your palace guard armies. And a lot of the militaries of the Middle East are Palace Guard armies.

11:30 They're there to make sure the leader stays in power. And in Venezuela's case it's kind of a hybrid between an internal security army and a Palace Guard army.

11:38 Gotcha., Okay., Um,, does, China, get, a, lot of oil from Venezuela? I remember hearing something about that.

11:44 Only, about, 4%., I, mean,, it, it's, it's, not it's not a lot, but it's not a little either.

11:51 And, if, we, essentially, turn, that, off,, it actually gives us a lot of negotiating leverage when negotiating trade with China. We can turn that oil on anytime we want. They have to go out on the open market and find that 4%. They're not going to get it from Russia. Russia is pumping as much oil as they physically can because they need the hard currency. Russia is maxed out and more and more of their derks keep breaking every single day.

12:16 And, so, it's, 4%, of, Chinese, oil, is, from Venezuela, but how much of Venezuela's oil goes to China? Does does that question?

12:23 It's, roughly, between, 80, and, 90%. Okay., So, most, of, Venezuelan, oil, goes, to China and that's where they get most of their money from. But China, it's not going to be an existential crisis for China if they can't get Venezuelan oil oil. It's just it's an

12:37 it's, not, great,, right?, Like, if, I, have, to go and find 4% of anything, right? If you assume you're running at 100% capacity right now when it comes to fuel and factories and energy and I have to go find that 4%, that's not great. What are you going to turn off until you find that? and it's going to make things more expensive on the open market uh for everybody. So, in the short term, you might see some some slight price rises. Um but over the long term, I think it'll kind of stabilize a little bit.

13:06 What, about, Cuba?, I, assume, Cuba, probably had a robust business with Venezuela because they don't have that many neighbors that think that

13:13 Cuba, trouble., Um,, you, know,, Venezuela, uh, exported most of Cuba's oil, about 90% of Cuba's oil, and they're at the point now where they have brownouts their power is only on for a couple hours a day. Uh, turning off that spot to Cuba is a major major problem for Cuba. Uh, because they don't have a lot of places they can go for oil and they don't have any hard currency. One of the reasons Cuban cigars are so horrible is that they are pumping anything. Whatever they can, whatever they can manufacture cigar-wise, whatever crap they can manufacture, they are throwing that out the door because they need that hard currency and that's one of the few things they can produce that the world will buy.

13:58 I, see., Because, I, remember, Cuban, cigars were supposed to be amazing. Wasn't that wasn't that what they were famous for? at one point and uh you know here's the other funny thing and this is when you look at something like communism um you know American cigars and I I know a little bit about cigars I have a humidor right behind me American cigars are draw well I should say general cigar company cigars a lot of cigars are made in Miami Dominican Republic Honduras Nicaragua sometimes those cigars are draw tested they put them on a machine they make sure that you can actually suck through the cigar car before they ship it. So, there's a machine that actually sucks on the cigar for you before they cap it and put it in a box.

14:39 I'm, Yeah,, I'm, going, to, have, to, talk about that after the show. I might need one of those for for uh my friend might need one of those

14:46 for, reasons., So,, what, what's, what's fascinating is that uh when you choose not to innovate and invest uh back into your um back into your company because you're just trying to grab all the hard currency you can, you tend to fall by the wayside. And that's why Dominican and Honduran and Nicaraguan cigars are now superior to what Cuba is putting out, even though they have some of the best soil in the world for growing cigars. What do people consistently misunderstand about Venezuela? Because people will see they'll see the words oil and socialism or communism whatever, in a headline and just kind of like lose their mind. They're thinking and a lot of people, let's say on Reddit are like, "Oh, America hated it because they were distributing all the oil wealth to the people." And I'm like "Last I checked, people were literally starving to death in Venezuela. So where's that oil money going again? Come

15:41 on. Uh it's basically going into the pockets of the regime. Yeah. Um, now, Venezuela, is, actually, one, of, the largest producers of Bitcoin, believe it or not.

15:51 Huh. And, that's, because, the, government subsidizes electricity. So it's very very cheap to mine for Bitcoin inside of Venezuela. Uh but for a while I I want to say it was in the 2010s uh there were people it was never the kind of famine that you might see in Ethiopia but there were people who were choosing to lay in bed all day so they didn't they didn't uh expend any calories getting up and moving around. It was it was literally that hard to find food. Uh the security situation there is pretty bleak. Um the people don't really have any rights right to assemble. There's these uh units, and I'm probably gonna pronounce it wrong in Spanish, collectivos

16:35 which, are, basically, motorcycle, gangs. Yeah, these, are, motorcycle, gangs, with, guns that are sponsored by the Maduro government. And these collectivos will drive around intimidating people so they don't protest or if there's a vote, they might intimidate people to not vote for the opposition. So, the situation there is is pretty darn bleak.

16:59 I've, got, uh, we've, got, listeners, down there and they've said to me that the collectivos, they'll they'll just shoot you. Like, if you're out in the street and you're holding a Venezuelan flag and they think like you're celebrating Maduro getting kidnapped, they'll just shoot you. They're not going to ask you anything. They will they'll shoot you and all your friends. Like, they don't care. Uh and I was like, "What do these people do?" And he said they're daytoday they're just criminal gangsters that sell drugs or do human trafficking but they'll take a check from you know the police or the government as well and they have zero accountability and some of them probably just do it for the love of the game if you're enough of a psychopath right just go around killing teenagers that you don't like why not right

17:38 I, mean, it's, easy, money, I, know, when people were leaving Venezuela traveling over Colombia Maduro sent all these collectivos over to the border to just steal from them

17:48 as, they, cross, the, border just take from them. And Cuba did the same thing when people left Cuba. You know, people pack their suitcases, pack their bags, and the Cubans would just take take everyone's suitcases as they left, right? The Cuba government did that as people fled the country. So yeah, the collectivos are are some pretty bad news.

18:07 So,, Venezuela's, collapse,, this, is multiffactorial, right? This is corruption to the to the gills. There's no solid institution. I shouldn't say none, but there's few solid institutions., Nobody's,, for example, there's no courts keeping the government honest or anything like that. In fact, I think during the election that was stolen, he he basically took out any judge that said, "Hey, you know, this might not be right." It was like, "Well we know that. You're fired." Right? It's it's there's sanctions, there's mismanagement, there's brain drain, mass immigration, just all stacked together.

18:38 And the fact that Maduro was still in power was only because he was shooting anybody who decided that maybe they should say something about that. And I find it crazy. I mean the amount of immigration, I, don't know, if, you, have these numbers handy but the country has like 30 million people or had

18:54 and, like 8, million, people, or, sorry, the, country has like 30 million people and before that like 8 million people left. So something like 24% of the population has left since the late '90s

19:07 which, is, it, is, absolute, it, is, absolute madness and a lot of those people they they would try to go somewhere and and send money home

19:15 but, uh, in, a, lot, of, ways, I, think, Maduro saw this as a safety valve like let those people leave they can send money back home and that that makes me even less accountable to make sure that my the make make sure that um my people are being uh treated well or they they have all the education power and and uh needs,

19:38 right?, Like, if, it, gets, bad, enough,, your nephew will leave and he'll go get a job at Texas and send you all of his money. Why do I care if he's starve now? That's good for that's a good thing. It encourages him to leave, right? So, it's actually almost like an economic engine on. And I look, I don't want to dwell too much on Hugo Chavez, but this guy was military colonel. Really, he was super charismatic. I mean, do you know about this TV show he had that was like every day for hours, I believe. Or

20:06 I, actually, do, not., You, should, tell, me about this cuz apparently you do. I I only do weapons. So, this sounds fascinating.

20:12 I, I'm, pretty, sure, I, misspoke,, but, I think it's every week. I think every Saturday he had a TV show that was literally like 5 hours long sometimes. And he would go on and chat with people and sing songs and dance and chat about whatever. Like he just perfor he just performed and he just entertained people. This is the president of the country. Okay

20:33 this, is, Chavez, or, Maduro. This, is, Chavez., Yeah, that, is, fascinating. Let, me, look, this, up., Hugo, Chavez, TV show.

20:42 Hugo, Chavez., Alo, yeah., Alo, Presidente. So like Hello President 19 president 1999 to 2012. Um and he yeah he did this. Hold on. Here's the Wikipedia. This is weird. So, it was a longunning unscripted talk show hosted by Hugo Chavez, former president of Venezuela. It was broadcast on Venezuela state television and radio channels. Uh, on Sundays from 11:00 a.m. until mid to late afternoon. The show is used to promote shaveista socialist principles to supporters in Venezuela and beyond. Many additions were filmed outdoors before large audiences featuring a local farm factory school hospital housing project, or other public investment.

21:18 Chavez typically appeared on television several times a week, but this was his opportunity to reach most families on their day off. The show is criticized for his lack of seriousness due to low production values, spontaneous announcements, random contributions from audience members, colorful informality and outright tedium.

21:34 That's, that's, fascinating., He, said, so, he, he, died, in, 2002, I believe. No, in 20 2012.

21:43 Yeah., Yeah., It, the, reason, the, show, is not on anymore is because he died. That was the only thing that got the show off the air was that he died. So, it's there's more. This is a long Wikipedia entry, and I remember watching some of this um out of curiosity a long time ago, and it's it's like, you know silly. It's ridiculous, especially given that it's the president of of the country. So, anyway, I don't know why I even brought that up, but basically this guy was like this charismatic military leader who was also just like a total goofball, which makes him endearing until, you know, he kills your family for descent or something like that. Yeah. Well, I mean, you know, uh FDR had fireside chats, right? I don't know, how, long, they, were., I, don't, know if they were five hours long. I don't think he was doing any dancing.

22:31 No., Um, so, Chavez, in, 99,, he, rewrites, the Constitution. I kind of cut you off and we jumped on a tangent, but like he's granting powers or authority basically to to to issue laws by decree. And I think he did a bunch of these. He did like one round in 2000 or something and he did like 50 decree laws. He basically just said, "I don't need this National Assembly thing anymore. I'm just going to make the laws myself."

22:58 Well,, they, still, have, the, National Assembly, but he has a lot more power to grant decrees. I believe between 20201 there were 49 decree laws and and then in 2004 2005 he started packing the Supreme Court with supporters.

23:14 Yikes., uh, which, allowed, him, to, appoint judges that would be more favorable of Chavez. So yeah, by then by I think it was in 2008 uh another thing Chavez started doing was he started implementing new gun restrictions. Uh there was an assassination I believe two years earlier, an attempted assassination and he was deathly afraid of civilians with firearms because he did not want to get taken out. So he uh implemented I want to say it was in 2008 they started uh gun registration and kind of creating a master list and then by 2012 all civilian firearms ownership was banned which was kind of the beginning of the end for any kind of ability for a mass civilian uprising.

24:00 That, is, what, second, amendment, guys, in the United States talk about all the time. You know like the beginning this is what authoritarian regimes do. They make sure nobody else has any guns because they're scared. Yeah, I mean that's that that was the playbook in Cuba, you know, Arma Pqua, right? Arma Pquua, am I saying that correctly? That was what uh supposedly one lieutenant asked uh um Castro, will we be allowed to keep our firearms? And

24:24 and, uh, Castro, said,, "Arma, Pqua,, guns, for what? We don't need guns anymore."

24:29 Oh,, so, you're, mixing, French, with, Spanish now., All right., Okay,, got, it., I, was like, what on earth? I think it's probably Arma Porqu, but

24:36 Arma, P., Yeah., I, sorry, I, like, Yoko, Taco Bell. You're the guy that speaks Spanish.

24:43 At, least, that, was, Spanish., Yeah., All right. So, how did Maduro come to play? Because I look I know Chavez died, but how cuz Maduro was a bus driver. So yes. And I know that it's a socialism thing like, oh, I'm going to pick a worker cuz workers know. Like, okay. But like a maybe a worker who knows how to run an administrative office instead of just a bus driver. Not that there's anything wrong with bus drivers, but they don't have a lot of political experience generally.

25:08 So,, a, little, I, mean,, you're, you're, in you're in you're in the right you're in the right area here. So, uh Maduro started out as a bus driver and then he became like a union store like a shop storage and then he was the leader of the transportation workers union and then he got elected to Congress or to their assembly.

25:29 That's, that's, fair, then., So, he, did, know a little bit about labor and organizing and all that and Chavez really liked the guy. Uh in fact Maduro's father was like a socialist labor organizer as well. So there were some synergies there and Chavez eventually became vice president and he or Maduro became vice president and he moved in into the presidential office when Chavez died.

25:54 So, who, is, Maduro, loyal, to?, I, mean,, he's not loyal to the people of Venezuela cuz he's not given them most of the benefits here. It is he like an ideological, you know, socialism is a real deal or is he kind of like, look, I'm the leader now. I'm going to become a billionaire. I don't really care what happens to everybody else.

26:11 That's, an, excellent, question., I, mean,, I I can't see into the man's heart, right? I'm sure that if you're espousing beliefs as a socialist and you started out as a labor union organizer, you do tend to believe in socialist principles. So, I'm sure that's still there. But I think maybe he kind of forgot about the whole distributing the wealth of the people thing.

26:29 Yeah. And, he, basically, enriched, himself, and enriched his cronies and enriched certain people in the army. You have to and the security forces. Uh one of the things you have to understand is that in any kind of authoritarian state, you have to essentially satisfy three factions. You have to satisfy the ruling elite, you have to satisfy the military and you have to satisfy the police and intelligence services. because any of those three organizations can bring you down. So, I'm sure that he started out as genuinely believing in socialism, but at some point when you see all of that oil money, you know, those billions of dollars, in in, oil, money, uh, ripe, for, the taking, uh I can I can certainly see how that might uh push someone's um push someone's uh beliefs more toward capitalism or at least toward kleptocracy.

27:22 Yes. Right., Yeah,, I, would, love, to, know, a little bit about everyday life for normal Venezuelans under Chavez and Maduro because I mean when I my best friend was Venezuelan when I was growing up as a kid. This is like the 80s and early 90s. His dad was like a wealthy dude and he said that back home, you know, things were pretty normal. His mom, of course, had been to Venezuela. She wasn't Venezuelan, but she'd been there. She was like, I was nice and like very modern and clean and things were running well. This is like the '8s, you Oh, it was good. It was like a wealthy normal place to go. It was People were not starving in the streets and lighting things on fire. So, widening inequality clearly happened at some point.

28:04 Yeah,, absolutely., I, mean,, I, think, that the the inequality slowly began because there was a difference between people who were connected and people who weren't connected, right? And a big portion of that was hyperinflation. So hyperinflation hit in like 2016 and this hyperinflation was over 800%. And you can just imagine if if something if you if you think that something is going to cost more tomorrow than it does today, you're probably going to buy that thing today. And what does that lead to? That leads to shortages. Remember when uh during COVID when we had uh there was no toilet paper on the shelves?

28:44 Yeah. Yeah., So,, why, are, people, buying, toilet paper? Oh, well, there's toilet paper there. I better buy it because there might not be any the next time, you know, I'm in the store. And in a situation like that where there's all this hyperinflation, if you have somebody in power such as a police officer or even just someone who might grant a permit like a driver's license the corruption doesn't become someone stole money. A lot of corruption in the US is of the someone stole money kind of, you know, paytoplay kind of thing or I'm going to steal money from this organization. Uh corruption in Venezuela was more like the system won't function unless you grease my hand a little bit.

29:26 Right., Right. And, uh, I, think, in, some, ways, a, lot, of that is intentional because Iran is is a similar example. I know a woman who's Iranian and she has been trying to get a passport for almost like years now. She has a piece of property in Iran and she can't uh sell it unless she gets a passport and goes to Iran and is able to complete this transaction. But in order to do that, she needs a birth certificate. In order to do that she has to send a way for it and then go to the consulate and then and I think a lot of those runarounds that bureaucracy does two things. The first is it it staffs the government with people who will support the government, right?

30:06 Because they at least it's a job. And the second thing is that job becomes an excellent opportunity for graft. Oh, you want your birth certificate? Well, you have to pay me. I can expedite it if you pay me. Um there was a story of and I I I love this story. There was a factory owner and this guy, he couldn't find toilet paper and the union contract that he had with his workers required that he provide toilet paper in all the bathrooms. So now you got a guy running around the city trying to find toilet paper instead of actually running his business because if he goes into breach of contract with the union, the government can take his business.

30:42 Oh, my, god., And, if, you, have, someone running around just constantly doing busy work all the time to satisfy these little uh tiny uh bureaucratic um bureaucratic uh states, then you need to it makes it a lot harder to go protest or fight against the government, right? Like I can't protest against the government. I got to freaking wait in line for food. I can't protest against the government. I need I need to renew my driver's license and that takes two days.

31:13 Jeez. Right., So,, I, think, a, lot, of, this, is intentional. So, that the average life of a person in Venezuela is just dealing with all this BS and dealing with people who are in the government who want a payment just to do their jobs, right? Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Venezuela, man, they got 300 billion barrels of oil or something like that. How does having massive oil reserves, how does that make the problems worse? Because a lot of people are like, there's so much money there, this place should be, you know, a paradise. And but the problem is all these oil states except for Norway.

31:48 They're it's a curse basically. Yeah. Any any country that primarily relies on pulling minerals out of the ground tends to become corrupt because then there's no incentive to be accountable to taxpayers, right? You and I, we pay money to the federal government or in some cases the state government. And for the most part, if the government doesn't do what we want them to do with that money, we unelect them, right? I I complain a lot that my I think my I get taxed 6% where I live in Maryland, but I can go online. I can renew my driver's license online, right? I don't have to go into the DMV. There's I do actually get a lot of services, but if there's no incentive to be accountable to the taxpayer and you have things like foreign contractors providing a lot of the expertise for mineral extraction then all you really need to do is provide the labor, which is mostly unskilled or semi-skilled labor. So, you

32:48 don't necessarily need to make sure your people are educated. You don't they don't necessarily need to have hospitals other than maybe maternity hospitals right? Because you still need to keep that birth rate up to keep manufacturing to keep creating those uh semi-skilled or lowskilled workers. You need those people. And then you need a small group of people who are the elite, the elite the doctors, the lawyers, the people the technocrats that help the country run. But you don't necessarily need that big middle class that's that's well educated because those are the people that can that can go protest or might get upset if if things are things go wrong. So mineral revenue is basically the prize that makes corruption kind of worth it

33:30 right?, And, I've, done, shows, about, this., I I remember talking with uh oh man, his name is Alistair. He wrote the dictator's handbook. And one of the questions that remember that guy?

33:40 Yeah., I, I've, been, quoting, stuff, from there. Yeah. Like when I said the three people that need you need to satisfy.

33:45 Exactly., This, is, like, straight, out, of handbook. And the reason that he So I went in depth on like why oil and mineral extractive regimes are usually authoritarian shite holes where people get shot in the street just generally. It's it's like it's the default unless you really have a lot of momentum going in the other direction like you're Norway and one of the most sort of progressive societies in the world and you have oil. Um, yeah. And then like you mentioned before, a Dutch disease, high oil prices, good times, everybody gets a government program so that they don't have any problem with the government, but then the party stops because, well, the was the, game, of, music., I'm, going to, screw these metaphors up, but the the music stops, musical chairs goes to [ __ ] because the oil price falls. And it's like, not only are you not getting free education, you aren't getting food.

34:33 So,, because, there's, no, diversified economy, you got major major major uh problems. other

34:41 issue, is, you, have, a, lot, of, businesses kind of they have a hard time competing

34:49 with, oil, or, mineral, extraction, right, so if if I have a factory and I make widgets and I can pay you $10 an hour but the oil fields pay $12 an hour or where are you going to work

35:02 right right, now, most, some, people, will, work, in the widget factory because maybe it's easier work but eventually that widget factory is going to have to raise their wages so that people

35:15 This, is, Yeah,, this, is, the, problem, that Russia is having right now. Uh my I've got friends there and basically everybody works at a defense contractor like everybody I mean yeah they still have defense contractors are competing with the army. So the army raises wages or they raise the bonus. So the defense contractors have to raise their bonus and that's why you see 20% inflation inside of Russia.

35:38 Yeah., It's, and, it's, not, just, I, don't mean like defense contractors per se but defense related industries I should say. So like everybody's doing something cuz that's where all the money is like all of it. Um okay production they produce less than I was shocked by this. They have the second what is it first or second largest oil reserves? They have the largest oil reserves

35:58 but, they, produce, less, than, a, million barrels a day, which makes like no sense to me until you read that they've probably got every I mean the those oil derks are rusty, right? They haven't been cleaned out since Chavez, which is what 1997?

36:14 Well,, they, haven't, had, a, lot, of, uh reinvestment, right? Because if you're trying to steal as much as you can before you retire, I'm going to I'm going to use the Dukes of Hazard analogy here., Did, you ever, watch, a, Dukes, a hazard, that TV show?

36:28 Yeah. So,, Rosco, P., Col, Train,, the, sheriff,, he was actually a fairly honest sheriff.

36:35 And, then, a, bond, issue, failed, that, would pay for his pension and he had three years before he was going to retire. So he had three years to make all the money you could steal, right? And so, with uh with something like this, when when you when you're a dictator, the clock on the wall is ticking, right? You are you going to die or you going to get deposed? So, you have to make as much money as you can steal before that clock hits zero. So why would you reinvest into repairing your oil rigs or buying new stuff or finding new fields when you could take that money? Because one of two things is going to happen, right? You're either going to get deposed and you get killed you're going to die in your sleep, or maybe three things. You might get deposed and be be able to get on a plane and go to Russia and play Fortnite with Assad for the rest of your life.

37:25 I, was, going, to, say, Putin, is, collecting dictators like my grandma used to collect those Matrushka dolls, the nesting dolls. And I was as I was thinking, man, Maduro, he got kidnapped but you he was probably a few minutes away. He was if he had gotten to his safe room or whatever and the army started closing in, the special forces would have had to leave without him. But man, he's like I could just picture Putin screaming, you know, Assad, clean your room. Uh, Maduro might be coming over and he's definitely sleeping with you. Clean your room anyway, though, cuz Kani might be coming over and he's not sleeping with me, right? I mean, it's like you if you run a if you run an authoritarian state right now, someone in Putin's palace is is sweeping the floors and tucking the sheets in and making, you know, giving you your Star Wars bedding all set up. I mean they are they are ready for your arrival.

38:19 Yeah., I, mean, you're, absolutely, correct. What, what, kind, of, what what, what, really surprises me is that Maduro didn't take the offramp. Uh there was a theory that maybe uh this was and this was something we used to do in Iraq where we would actually uh someone was was going to self-surrender, someone was going to inform on a terrorist organization inside Iraq and instead of them walking to our Ford operating base, we would tell them just don't worry about it. We'll come to you. And then one night we kick in their door and we grab and we put a bag over their head. Well, he knows it's it's all for show, but the neighbors don't, right? And so that was one thing that people said, "Oh, maybe Maduro actually self-surrendered and they had to do it in a certain way."

39:08 I, don't, believe, that's, the, case. Nah., Nah., that, if, they, were, if, he, was going to do it that way, they would have done something where like his plane took off and the air force escorted it to Florida with zero like very little expense, little fanfare, not a big deal. Like it was over international waters. Oh my gosh, they wouldn't send special forces into Karacas after bombing the crap out of the air defenses and do this super risky thing to get him and his wife out of there. There's no way that I do not believe that.

39:38 You're, absolutely, correct., They, did, give him an off-ramp to I believe it was Turkey. And he basically said, you know go fly a kite. That's not happening. And then he went on TV and started mocking and dancing and like laughing about it. And I think that just pissed off Trump and his and his buddies enough where they were like, kick this door in extra hard right?

39:57 Well,, you, know,, I, I, said, it, was, going, to happen, you know. Um when um I think it it was like a couple days before the the events I actually came out with a Ryan McBth 2026 bingo card.

40:11 I, saw, that. And, yeah,, the, bingo., You, know,, I, had Venezuela as the free space cuz Maduro he was done. We can't We're not going to The president cannot drive an aircraft carrier into the Caribbean

40:23 and, put, all, those, ships., think, that, we have about 20 navy ships there plus coast guard vessels

40:28 without, looking, weak, in, front, of, Russia and China if the president backs down Maduro was going one way or the other.

40:35 Yeah,, I, knew, it, was, only, a, matter, of time. I, think, you, and, I, talked, over, the holidays and you were like, "Eh, this Oh, it was it was either you and I talked over the holidays, but I talked with another guy who said, and this is kind of funny in retrospect, no, air quotes funny. He said, "It won't happen before January. I can't remember because Congress isn't in session and it needs to get congressional approval to do anything like this. And I and then well that's not what happened, is it?

40:59 That's, that's, that's, not, that's, not, how our president rolls. I um you, know, I, I've, said, good, things, about the president. I've said bad things about the president. I've agreed and disagreed with various policies. One of the things we probably should have done was get a general authorization for use of military force just to that area.

41:17 Um, but, unfortunately, I, I, am, not, a lawyer. I am not a congressman. I'm not on the Supreme Court. So, I can't say whether this particular act You're the lawyer. You should

41:27 I'm, only, one, of, those, things, and, I, can tell you that this was definitely not legal, but it doesn't matter because nobody's enforcing anything. Uh that's that's the bigger problem.

41:36 I, guess, that's, the, thing,, right?, I, mean, there's there's what is legal or illegal and then there's what you can actually prove or what you can get punished for right? Like

41:46 Exactly., Speeding, is, illegal,, but, I, can speed as long as I don't get caught.

41:51 That's, right., That's, right., I, want, to talk about the Venezuelan military because one of the things I thought was kind of again, not funny funny, but like wow, that happened was this is a massive operation. Uh 40 people were killed. Somehow 32 of them were Cubans according to Cuba. So I want to hear about that. But then also, I don't know, we had to repaint, one, of the, helicopters, cuz, it had a bullet hole on it and everybody else was totally fine. I mean, we absolutely smoked this mission. The the Venezuelan military like, are they competent at all? I mean clearly they don't stand a chance against American soldiers or marines or special forces at all, but is it just they just do internal security? But isn't internal security, I don't know controlling your airspace? They have all these uh what is it? Chinese or Russian uh air defense units. I mean, hey, you might want to plug those in, guys.

42:47 Yeah., I, mean,, so, war, is, hard,, right? There there's that war is hard. So, I I to start with the air defenses. Uh one of the air defense units they have is the Russian S300. It's an older system. It's not the best system. Ukraine still uses that system. Russia still uses that system. Um but we have ways of not only jamming that system with electronic countermeasures uh aircraft like uh the Growler the uh EF-18 Growler uh which can can jam effectively jam these these systems so that either they can't lock on to aircraft or they can't once they fire that missile goes someplace else.

43:29 Uh we also have something called seed or suppression of enemy air defenses where when we notice that the enemy radar is emitting we fire a missile toward that enemy radar and that enemy missile is called a that that missile is called a harm anti-radiation missile. That missile goes after the radar signal. So it homes in on the actual radar dish that is sending out radio waves tracking a jet. And now they have two choices. They can turn the set off and hopefully move. If they do turn it off, the missile remembers where it is and goes there anyway. Um, they can turn the set off or they can keep it on in the hopes they can either shoot down the incoming missile or still shoot down some of the jets. Um, so that it is doing uh doing anti-aircraft work. It it's it's an art, not necessarily a science because you can have different units blink where they turn on their radar and then turn it off

44:28 really quick and have another one turn on their radar and turn it off really quick. Um, but when you're masked when you're facing mass forces over 150 aircraft and I would imagine quite a few of those were seed or suppression of enemy air defense aircraft. U you're really 18 I think they had 18 surface air missile launchers. So 18 of those dealing with all those growlers, dealing with all those suppression of enemy air defense aircraft, that's going to be a major problem

44:54 right?, So, they're, they're, prepared, for they were prepared for an invasion from Kirasawa or Turks and Caos, not an invasion from the United States.

45:03 I, mean,, it, can, certainly, give, you, a false sense of security. And that's not saying they can't get lucky. I mean during uh the war in Serbia, if you if you look behind me, there's a Serbian flag. And uh one of my it's right there. There's a Serbian flag behind me and right below it is a patch from a Serbian military unit. These Serbs sent me that. And they also sent me a little model of a stealth fighter.

45:28 Yeah. The, Serbians, shot, down, an, American, F-17 Nighthawk with a book anti-aircraft system. And uh the guy the guy who was doing the uh air defense, he was just really good. And he was able to wait until the stealth fighter opened up its bomb bays. And when that happened, the stealth characteristics were gone and he was able to shoot during that time. Took a lot of patience.

45:56 So, my, buddy's, army, unit, captured, the pilot. Uh, that, was, Scott., Well,, uh, the, was, the pilot captured. I think the stealth fighter pilot was not captured.

46:07 Okay., They, they, I I, thought, it, well, one of my Serbian buddies army units captured a pilot from the United States.

46:15 Yeah,, that, my, I, don't, recall, that particular instance with the with the stealth fighter pilot. I know there was a guy named Scott OGrady who was with the triple nickel squadron out of Italy. He was shot down an F-16 and he spent uh I think eight days on the ground uh you know like eating ants. That was his big thing. He was he was eating ants for sustenance. uh and avoiding Serbian patrols who were looking for him.

46:40 It, was, this, guy,, Lieutenant, Colonel, Dale Zelko, uh in 1999. Oh, yeah. This FF17 Nighthawk.

46:46 Okay., So,, he, was, all, right., So,, you, know a little bit about that than me then.

46:50 Yeah, a, little, bit, more, about, that, than, me. But yeah,, so, he, was, in, this, was, the Yugoslav/Serbian army and my friend was like, "We felt so bad for that guy."

47:02 Yeah., I, mean,, you, know,, a, a, uh, the proximity warhead on a missile doesn't care if you're invisible.

47:09 Yeah. Right., Doesn't, care, if, you're, invisible. So,, my, my, the, guy, I, lived, with, in, Serbia went up on a a billboard and they spray painted in Serbian. Sorry, we didn't know it was invisible.

47:23 That's, pretty, funny. Yeah,, they're, pretty, snarky., It, was, kind of funny. Yeah, Serbians a good It's a good time. It's a good time if they're not shooting at you.

47:30 And, maybe, even, if, they, are., I, don't know. Actually I'll leave that story.

47:34 They, actually, have, some, really, good military equipment, the Serbs, uh, in a lot of ways because almost kind of like the South Africans, because nobody would sell to them

47:42 right?, So,, the, Serbians, had, to, develop, a lot of their own military equipment like the Lazar, which is an armored personnel carrier. Uh, but I know we're here to talk about Venezuela.

47:52 You, mentioned, the, troops., And, you, know, for the most part, if the troops are

47:58 essentially, just, being, used, to, put, down protesters, they're not very skillful. When you have special forces guys, they they built a compound. They built Maduro's compound and they practiced again and again and again and again to in in order to execute this mission flawlessly. So, when you're going up against operators who've practiced for four months to kill you and they know every single corner, you know, you might be able to get a lucky shot in, but these guys really are the best of the best.

48:28 I, wonder, what, the, plan, was, cuz, they said, I read about this and they said that Maduro when this was all going down, they knew exactly where he was. They knew what he had for breakfast. They knew all the places he was going. They knew what kind of pets he had. They knew his night schedule, his morning routine, everything. Of course, cuz the CIA was on the ground. They said that when they caught him finally, he was already in a safe room trying to close the door. So, like that was a close call. Also, what was their plan if he got in that room and shut the door? Cuz it sounds like they had like a 30-second, you know, basically window that they almost didn't get him. Were they just going to drop a bunker buster on that thing and then they didn't arrest him?

49:06 He just turned into pink mist or what? They, would, they, would, probably, they, have charges with them. You'd blow that door. There'd be ways to get through that door. Look, any any safe is really a time delay, right?

49:18 Yeah. So,, the, the, question, is, how, much, time, do we have in order to penetrate this room? Um, one of the things that I I had mentioned in a video I had done was that President Trump, you know, it was on October 15th, he said, "I we have CIA assets in Venezuela." AND EVERYONE WENT "OH MY GOD, WHY WOULD HE SAY we have CIA assets in Venezuela? What an idiot." He didn't say it for Americans. He didn't say it to brag. He did it to let the Venezuelans know we are coming. And you you can be you can open the door for us or you can be under it when we kick it in.

49:58 Yeah., Now,, next, time, he, says, there's, CIA on the ground in Iran or CIA on the ground, it's bas Now when he orders that phrase, it means I'm getting arrested at best in 90 days.

50:09 Well,, you, know,, uh, I, It's, probably, a little bit easier to put CIA on the ground in Venezuela. I don't know how many uh Persian uh special operators or CIA agents we have.

50:20 We, for, sure, have, that., Are, you, kidding me? Go to LA. You can find a few guys there. The one just go to the ones that aren't selling necklaces. Sorry. I love my Persian friends. They're go to find one that's not a dermatologist. Um and

50:34 first, we, arrest, him,, then, we, sell, him the carpet. That's, right., Then, and, look, at, his, skin. It's incredible. Uh It's impeccable. Yeah, it's uh it it's we have Persians. Come on, man. And if we didn't just talk to Israel, the MSAD is probably half Persian or Persian passing guys.

50:51 I, I, got, to, tell, you,, when, I, was, in Israel, there were uh quite a few of the uh gu the guards at the Knesset.

50:59 Yeah. Um, I, was, there, with, with, a, news, channel I work for, and quite a few of the guards, you could tell they weren't Ashkenazi, right? Uh, and so I I would assume they're either Christian or Arabs. And they look like straight up killers.

51:14 Yeah. Like, straight, up, killers., Like, I, would not want to mess with these dudes.

51:19 There's, a, there's, a, unit, that, I, used, to know some guys in in Israel and I the the name is something like Misha and it basically means like living among the Arabs and they're sphartic Jews. So Arabic Jews that you ever see Fa remember that show?

51:36 Excellent, show., Oh,, you, know, how, the, guy speaks fluent Arabic and he convinces everybody he's a Palestinian from the West Bank or something like that. I mean, it's flawless. I mean, these are guys that like grew up in Yemen and their family's from Yemen and they have a Yemeni culture. They happen to be Jewish, but you know, they could go into Yemen and people would be like, "Oh yeah, you're one of us." Of course, you got their local accent from our town right? I mean, it's it's just completely amazing how well these guys can infiltrate stuff. It's absolutely bananas. Anyway, that's a that's a tangent., So,, all right,, we, got, Maduro.

52:07 He's What's going to happen to that guy? Is he sharing a cell with Diddy? Uh exchanging petroleum for baby oil.

52:15 I, guess, I, guess, we, took, both, of, their oil right? That's, right., That's, right. That's right. We love a good I love a good oil. Um, they're having their own oil party in Riker's Island. So, okay. We But we left the VP who was her name was Rodriguez. Deli Rodriguez, I believe is her name. She's still in charge. So a lot of people are saying like, "Hey what good does this do? The whole regime is still in place. The armed forces are still in place. The VP is still in place. Are we just thinking they're going to be more amendable to getting bribed or whatever or or to the carrot to the stick to do what the United States wants?" Now

52:54 I, think, that, the, idea, is, Deli, Rodriguez is mainly a technocrat. She did kind of run the oil side of the oil explo the oil exploitation side of Venezuela for quite a few years and she was the vice president. So she manages a lot of that stuff. She knows where all the bodies are buried and how the oil extraction process works in the country. Um, you know, one of the issues that we had in in uh Iraq and I guess in Afghanistan as well, uh, we listened to people like uh Noriel Maliki in Iraq and Hmed Carzi and these people said, "Oh, oh, the people love me. The people want me back. The people want me here. And what happens when we arrive in Iraq?" Well, the people the people don't know who Nuriel Lamaliki is. He hasn't been here. And Had Carzi was basically the mayor of Kbble, right? So I think uh so the thing is in 2024, Edmundo Gonzalez, he won Venezuela's last election and Maduro essentially said, "No, you didn't." And

54:07 he was a standin for a woman named Maria Corino Machado. And both of those people left the country, right? And so, and Maria Corino Machado, she was one who won the Nobel Peace Prize and like thanked President Trump thinking, "Oh, he's the guy who's going to bring me in." The problem is that if either Gonzalez or Machado, if they walk off of the C17 escorted by Marines, the Venezuelan army

54:36 and, the, Venezuelan, police, are, not, going to respect them. They're going to consider them to be American puppets.

54:42 That, makes, sense., That, it's, going, to look bad if we put our own people in charge after arresting the leader. That's

54:47 especially, people, who've, been, out, of, the country have been risking their their butts like everybody else in Venezuel that didn't work out. I think we for once we learned our lessons and actually I I will tell you this um going back to to military military stuff for a second you know we fought an insurgency for 20ome years one of the things we're really, really really, good, at, is, finding where a bad guy is kicking in the door and grabbing him. That's something we essentially practiced for 20 years. So you know, this was absolutely inevitable and that that's one thing we learned from the global war on terror along with maybe we shouldn't take the outsider and put them in a position of power.

55:43 This, is, fascinating., What, one, thing that's interesting is again you mentioned that I'm I'm a lawyer and is what's the legal background? I mean they did indict him, right, for drug trafficking, naroterrorism related charges. And what one of one of the funny things for me was they're also hitting him with this possession of a machine gun essentially, which is funny because like you don't have so the way this charge works, it's this is like some stupid lawyer thing, but whatever. The the you maybe nobody else thinks this is funny, but in order to get this charge, you don't have to have a machine gun. Like if I get hit with that charge it's not like I have the machine gun in my hands or in my kitchen. It's that somebody associated with me in whatever crime I was doing, whatever criminal organization, they had a machine gun that they were using in the crime of drug trafficking or narcois. So, you're

56:28 taking this guy who controls a literal army with like a Navy and Air Force anti-aircraft missiles and like thousands of weapons and rockets and everything. And you're like, "Hey man, I know you got you had a machine gun when you were doing those crimes." And you're like, "A mach? Yes, I Yes, I had a machine gun. I have thousands of them and what grenades and missiles and everything in a boat that launches them and it's like so it's this sort of funny add-on charge that you see when you you hit like a [ __ ] with this or a guy in the bloods when he's dealing drugs and you're like and possession of a machine gun and it's like damn there's three extra years on the sentence and we're adding that to Maduro. It's kind of like saying it's kind of like charging somebody with like you have done capital murder and you're a serial killer and we found a bag of weed in your car, so you're getting life plus two and a half

57:19 months. You know, it's like it it's just a silly stupid add-on charge that kind of looks funny even in the in the indictment. You're like, what? Why bother with that? It's just silly.

57:30 That's, a, good, one., I, know, that, the, the the charges were actually filed in 2020. Um,, and, actually, one, of the, last, things I I thought this was kind of funny. One of the, last, things, that, the administration, the Biden administration did was increase the reward for Maduro's capture to $25 million. So, that was kind of interesting when it was uh former Vice President Harris went on Twitter and said, you know, how dare Trump grab Maduro? Like, wait a minute. Was it one of the last things your government did? Increase the increase the um the reward by $25 million.

58:07 Yeah. So, I, I, that's, that's, one, of, the, issues that that I I can kind of see with this country now. Even if you know we should take the win on this one. Everyone in America should go like good job special forces. We got a bad guy out of power. we have uh the potential for degrading China's influence in our um in our uh in our hemisphere. And um yeah, this should be something both Republicans and Democrats should agree on was a good thing. And honestly, I I wouldn't be Biden probably would have done it if he had thought of it first, right? Like

58:42 he's, the, guy, who, raised, the, reward. So I I I think we need to stop sharpshooting each other and kind of come together as Americans for the win.

58:52 What, What, can, we, Can, we, sort, of, steal man what people are saying like this is really terrible, this is bad, we shouldn't have done this cuz I'm I'm kind of with you where I'm like I love I love a good bad guy takedown, but I'm also like okay people who say this is terrible in an escalation I mean they they're they have a point. Well, I think what's terrible is that we didn't get an authorization for use of military force.

59:17 Yeah,, I, agree, with, that. And, that, that, sets, a, really, really, bad precedent because President Trump won't be in office forever. And the next guy who is in office who decides, you know what, I want to invade this country over here without authorization of Congress um, he might actually do that. He or she might actually do that. And that authorization for use of military force is necessary because then the president has to go to Congress and make the case. I I said in a couple of my videos, I don't mind doing this because of the China connection, but the president needs to make the case. The president needs to get the authorization for use of military force. And Congress has not done its job. They've been asleep at the wheel. Yeah. Uh when it comes to the checks and balances that our nation depends on.

1:00:04 Yeah,, I, completely, agree., I, wonder, what this is is hard. This is an impossible question to answer, but maybe I should rephrase it. There's certainly a portion of this I'm thinking that basically wanted to signal to China, hey, we don't care if you have influence in our backyard. We're not going to allow that. And also to Russia, hey, we have you have influence in our backyard. We don't like that. And by the way, your weapons are trash.

1:00:31 Yeah., I, mean,, I, I, if, there, was, a, nail, in the coffin, I it would certainly be this,, at least, when, it, comes, to, surface air missile systems, because the Iranians are using Russianmade surface stairs missile systems as well. Um, you know, if I if Russia ever recovers from their war in Ukraine, nobody is going to buy their stuff. Um, if I were in a democracy or even like a semi-democratic country where people really are accountable in the legislature and someone said, "Hey, we should buy these Russian T72 tanks." Um, I know that if I agree to that, the next time I'm up for election, people are going to be showing footage of Russian tanks blown up with their turrets popped off in Ukraine, and they're going to go, you know, Senator Bongo wants to buy this horrible Russian equipment. Vote for this other senator.

1:01:28 Right. Yeah., Yeah. So, when, you, look, at, the, performance, of Russian equipment in Venezuela um that doesn't really bode well for the Russian arms industry and that if Russia can ever uh recover and um actually export arms again because right now everything is going towards Ukraine. They essentially can't export anything. I do think Russia actually took a bit of a win here because they can now go "Yeah, we invaded Ukraine, but look they went and arrested Maduro. They're no better than us." I mean, I see key differences in these two things. But they're going to say, "Hey, the international law that you guys talk about all the time, you clearly don't care about that either."

1:02:09 You, know,, you're, absolutely, right., There is a woman uh she's a Russian American. Her name's Cassinia Terraova. Um I I've worked with her on various projects before and Cassinia keeps an eye on the Russian news media and uh she said that Russia has already been showing their citizens look this is what America does now on the world stage I don't really think it matters because it's not like other countries are going to go oh look America did it so Russia can do it too. Uh it's kind of like that Tyler Perry movie I can do bad all by myself. Mhm.

1:02:44 Russia, doesn't, need, an, excuse., Russia can do bad all by themselves. So can China. China doesn't need an excuse to take over Taiwan. But from an internal standpoint, this really is a win for Russia because they can say to their people, "Look, America is no different."

1:03:00 Right., Right., Exactly., Although Although, ignore the part about how they didn't lose anybody and it took three hours and we're in Ukraine for three years and we're on 500,000 dead or whatever the heck it is at this point. Not just that, but look at when when Russia tried to take over Hostamel airport, they performed an aerosol really similar to what we did in Karacus and uh they flew into Hostel airport which is a little bit north uh west of Kev and they had to do it at dawn because they didn't have enough night vision goggles for their pilots and their men and they didn't have enough training flying at night. Whereas the 160th SOA um, which is the Nightstalkers, the unit that that flew these operators in that's all they do is fly at night.

1:03:48 These guys fly at night all the time. Uh, looking imagine looking through two rolled up magazine tubes that are tinted green, you know, and trying to fly a helicopter. I've I've flown, and I put that in quotes because the other guy's hands were on the stick. I've flown a helicopter before. It is very hard. It is very, very hard. And these guys, you know, they're the kinds of guys that can hover inches off the ground and keep it steady while their operators jump out because they don't want to land because they don't know if the roof will collapse or there might be a mine on top of the on top of the ground or whatever.

1:04:23 I mean, these guys are are really that good. And Russia, look, you get what you pay for. If you're not constantly training like the 160th does, uh, you're just not going to see that level of performance out of your pilots.

1:04:36 I, would, love, to, talk, about, the, people who say, well, I I would love to count on the people who say this is just about oil, cuz yes, we do need the type of the grade of oil that Venezuela pumps. It's the kind we are set up to refine in the United States, but it's going to take like eight years to get that stuff back up online. I mean we this infrastructure is is just trashed right now and you digging wells especially offshore stuff and deep enough and pipelines and infrastructure to the ports and the container. I mean this is not something even if you work 24/7 at rapid pace as fast as you can. You're talking about half a decade before you're really ramping this stuff up. I mean it's it's going to be crazy. It's going to take forever. You're absolutely correct when you when you and when you look at it you have companies like Exxon and uh like I'm sure it would be great to go down to Venezuela, but we got plenty of

1:05:29 capacity coming from fracking in uh you know, North Dakota, right? So why would we go down to Venezuela and invest money in something where we it's going to take five to seven years to get any kind of return on investment? I mean,

1:05:47 and, it, might, get, seized, again, by, the next guy who gets elected in Venezuela which

1:05:51 theoretically, happen., And,, you, know,, in in 5 years, if well, assuming there's no third President Trump term, which I I don't think is going to happen, but let's say the uh the White House flips and you have a person who enters the White House who doesn't feel like we need to have the same sort of Dunro doctrine. Well, those oil companies might be out of luck. So, there's going to have to be some incentives for them to go down there and and pump some oil as well as some security guarantees as well.

1:06:22 It, it, still, seems, like, the, this, chess move makes sense even if Venezuela was exporting avocados,

1:06:30 strawberries., Yeah., Yeah., Absolutely., I mean, and that's that's something a lot of people don't seem to understand because people go, "Oh, the oil." And again, President Trump didn't help when he goes off script and goes, "We're going to take the oil and we're going to Oh, God. Why did you say that? And I it's just the fact that we're kind of cleaning house in our own hemisphere and denying China and Russia and Iran access to that. I mean, there were Iranians who are coming to Venezuela. They get that diplomatic passport. Now you have Hezbollah guys who can travel all around the world on a diplomatic passport issued by Venezuela. You know, that is not a situation that we want going on in our own backyard

1:07:12 right?, So,, so, what, what, happens, next, man? A little bit of oil volatility maybe, but like probably not too much of that. What what about opposition parties in Venezuela? You know, is the era of socialism over I know Iranians are like "Hey, we're protesting over here, too. You want to drop in with your nightstalkers and help a brother out?" I mean, I I see that kind of talk online as well.

1:07:35 That, that'll, be, that, would, be, a, little bit harder. You know, I run is is fairly mountainous. Um but I I can tell you that uh probably the most realistic outcome is a managed transition where you have security forces mainly mostly staying intact because they honestly they want the paycheck and eventually some sort of negotiated political settlement where they hold free and fair elections maybe even with American observers. You have free and fair elections. Um, and those people who are elected can then move toward weaning Venezuela off whatever socialist experiment they were in. Um, that is the most realistic best outcome.

1:08:19 Yeah,, I, was, going, to, say, that's, the, good outcome. What else could happen? What's the worst case scenario?

1:08:23 Well,, the, bad, outcome, is, that, you, have let's say in in a power vacuum. So Maduro is gone and maybe oil revenue isn't going out like it was or maybe different people have to get paid off. Now you have these motorcycle gangs, right? And these guys essentially become free agents, right? Or trendy trend argu agents. And now you don't see Venezuela turn into Iraq because in Iraq there's a lot of secular there was a lot of sectarian violence. Sunni and Shia the uh the Sunnis were a minority but they were in power. The Shia were a majority.

1:09:05 They were not in power and they were Iraq was essentially a civil war for, uh, probably, about, six, years,, right? That, you're, not, going to, see, that, in Venezuela. You're not going to see a civil war because there's really no sectarian divide there. But I could easily see it turning into Libya with all these FFTs run by warlords and probably most likely narco warlords right? Because they're getting their funding somehow. And then you have this like legitimacy crisis where you have the president who is essentially the mayor of Caracus right? And everyone is afraid to go out into the jungle because that's where all the gangs are.

1:09:46 So, it's, like, Haiti, kind, of., Yeah,, that that could be I could see that as a possible worst outcome.

1:09:51 Jeez., Oh, my, gosh., Well,, let's, hope, it works out better than that. Um the the reaction from Venezuelans has been interesting. There's people in Venezuela celebrating. There's Venezuelans in uh United States celebrating. I I do wonder what the And there's no polling data on this or anything, but like what I wonder what people the majority of people are doing. Do they see this as a liberation chaos, foreign power meddling that they'd rather not deal with? Cuz if you're suffering and you've been starving and stuff like that and you have no medical care, you might feel a little bit hopeful. But if you're an older person who is just kind of thinking you have five more years and maybe you can survive it, this might not be a shock to the system that you really needed. You know

1:10:32 I, think, you're, seeing, uh a wide range of possibilities here. I mean, you have people who for 25 years Venezuela's been socialist, right? You have you have people who've never seen democracy, right? Maybe some of the old people, older people might be cautiously optimistic about what might happen. The younger people might kind of wonder what is this whole democracy thing, right? How does that actually change? You know I've got my Tik Tok, I've got my friends, I never get in trouble with the police. You know, what's the big deal?

1:11:09 Maybe it's not a big deal until you want a family or you want a stable job. you want uh a good job after you get an education. Um I think if you're risk sensitive, like you're an elderly pensioner or something, you're probably going to fear any kind of instability especially uh if consumer goods start flooding back into the country, like sanction sanctions get lifted, consumer goods start flooding into the country now you might see prices rise because now you have money chasing, you know more oil money gets produced, more money chases those new consumer goods. I think you might be able to see prices rise and so pensioners might go crap. You know it might not be as bad as 800% hyperinflation, but if you have a certain uh a dollar value to your pension, you know, you there's not a lot of elasticity there. Uh if you're in the regime, that's a good question because one big problem that we had in Iraq was what we

1:12:06 call debathification. The bath party was Saddam Hussein's party. And Paul Bremer, the genius that he was, and I say that sarcastically after the on the third day of the occupation, he said, "If you're in the bath party, you're fired." And essentially everybody who knew how the water treatment plant worked walked off the job. So, if you're in the regime, uh, you're probably going to be thinking like, I need to play along no matter what happens. So, you don't want to rock the boat too much. I don't really see people grabbing their AK-101s and and going and fighting for Maduro because really fighting Venezuela.

1:12:48 AK-101. Uh, yeah,, I, believe, that's, their, uh that's their uh assault rifle that they use in the Venezuelan army.

1:12:56 Huh., I, know, there's, 47, and, I, know there's 74 cuz I play Call of Duty. I never heard of the 101. So, uh, for belongs to the AK-100 family. Uh, it's kind of a a new rifle floating barrel. Um, was developed in 1994. Uses, uh, 5.56x 45 U. So, yeah, it's a, uh, smaller smaller cartridge that uh, intermediate cartridge and I believe uh, Venezuela bought or I think they have a license to manufacture it. And they manufactured like a million of these things. So there's, uh, there's, a, heck, of a, lot, of these things floating around South America.

1:13:37 You, could, probably, get, one, real, cheap right now if you want one for your collection. Um I didn't mean to derail you. I This is an interesting This is an interesting and very sort of I mean frankly fascinating developing situation. Do you think we're going to continue to drone boats coming out of there or is that kind of over? I don't really know if it boy that's that's actually a really good uh that is a a really good question. Um I guess we'll see. But I thought the point it sort of seems like the point of that might have been to like rattle Maduro a little bit. Now he's already he's gone. So

1:14:16 yeah,, I, honestly, that's, a, tough, one., I it might have been to rattle Maduro. I I could see us not striking these boats anymore because our objective has been realized. So maybe maybe that won't happen anymore. I don't know how many I don't know what kind of dent we put in the actual drug market uh by destroying votes.

1:14:42 No,, I, I, read, up, on, the, the, narco, traffic from Venezuela and it's like I mean it's a drop in the bucket. There's not it's not a real player.

1:14:51 I, I, would, imagine, it, would, be, more Colombia for the processing. I know it is. It is a fact that the FARC engages in cocaine production and and trafficking in some of the jungles near the Colombian border. That is 100% obvious. Um I I often thought those boats that we were hitting, they might have been going out to maybe a uh a mother ship, right? like there's a there's an oil tanker that's headed over to Europe. I'm going to carry a bunch of bales of drugs and I'm going to pull up next to this mother ship. We're going to throw these bales onto the mother ship.

1:15:27 The Filipinos are operating the uh the ship. They don't care as long as they get paid, right? They you bring whatever you want and they put that stuff in the hold and it goes over to Europe. Um, so I'm not sure how um how of uh how much of a dent we really made in the drugs being imported into the US, but um it could have been done to rattle Maduro. You're absolutely right. That was actually, one, of the, big, issues, that, I had with this whole venture was that uh we we never really explained why this was necessary.

1:15:58 I, agree., Yeah., All, right,, last, question. When c when Trump said something's got to be done about Cuba, is this just what is he what do we think is is happening here? Are we actually going to do something about it or is it just like ah I want to I I got a chance to scare the [ __ ] out of Fidel Castro and his cronies like I'm going to do it.

1:16:16 Yeah,, we, saw, that, movie, uh, The, Bay, of Pigs. Yeah. Um, you, know, it's, I, could, see, us, perhaps giving Cuba a little push. Uh, and you know, right now we're kind of coming off a high, right? Like that that raid was so amazing, you know, then two days later the president's talking about invading Greenland. Like the W take the take the W.

1:16:43 All right. Yeah. Uh,, now, we're, talking, about, Greenland., I it's certainly possible uh that we could give Cuba a little bit of a push, but I don't know how ready the Cuban people might be to accept any kind of Yankee imperialism, right? I mean, uh they they might know that their lives aren't that great, but uh they've had to deal with the US sanctioning their country since I believe, 196

1:17:13 My, god, three, was, it?, crazy. You, know,, since, the, early, 1960s,, right, we've dealt with we've sanctioned Cuba.

1:17:22 And, in, fact,, I, think, one, of, John, F. Kennedy's last things he did uh was uh he he bought a thousand Hopman cigars from Cuba before he signed the order sanctioning Cuba. So, he was good at least for the rest of his life. Uh like that wasn't all that long.

1:17:40 Such, a, blatant, Anyway,, yeah., Um, I, I, yeah it's interesting but well I guess then this is a longer conversation but yeah the Cuban people might not be ready for Yankee imperialism with the Venezuelans ready for Yankee imperialism or you just think it's a different situation cuz

1:17:55 I, think, it's, a, different, situation because they've experienced wealth and democracy

1:17:59 right that's, true, nobody, alive, in, Cuba, has, has been there alive almost nobody alive in Cuba has experienced any sort of prosperity at any point really

1:18:09 I, would, say, that, that's, probably accurate that's probably accurate So I I'm sure like I guess as Americans we have this conceptualization that everyone wants to be free and and and people are imagining like oh wouldn't it be great if if I could speak my mind and that that that that's one of those things that that sounds good to us but for the average Cuban who just they need to get to work and they need to find food and they need to do this. Oh, it's democracy now. Okay. Does this mean I get food? And that there could be that that whole situation where democracy comes and you have winners and you have losers. I mean you look at look at Russia, right? I mean there were some real winners and some real real losers.

1:18:53 In fact there were a couple of winners and the rest of the country was was the loser.

1:18:57 Right., When, when, all, those, pyramid schemes came out after the fall of the Soviet Union. So, uh, if I would certainly imagine that if we kind of push Cuba over into some sort of fall of the Cuban regime, uh, it's the Pottery Barn rule that uh, Coen Powell mentioned. You break it, you buy it. You know, you break it, you own it. And Venezuela might be able to take care of themselves, but Cuba is a freaking basket case.

1:19:27 It, is., My, god,, I, went, there, and, I, I'll never forget the things that they told us versus the things that we saw with our own lying eyes, right? It was just like everyone has free healthcare and you get free clothing and you get free school., All right,, we're, going to, stop at this bathroom over here and bring pencils because the kids here don't have any. Why is everyone naked? They don't really have clothing. What the hell man?

1:19:49 When, you, run, the, Havana, Marathon,, it's tradition to give your shoes to somebody at the end. I mean, that doesn't surprise me at all.

1:19:58 I, the, things, I, saw, that, and, then, our, our tour guide was like, "You don't understand. You don't understand. You don't understand." And I was like "Maybe I don't understand, but I don't know. I'm this is what I'm saying." And then 3 years later, he escaped to the United States. I emailed him and I was like "So mostly bullshit." And he's like "What do you want me to do? I'm a tour guide for the government of Cuba." Anyway Miami is nice these days. I'm happy to be here. You know, it was it was really that was really uh really crazy to to see. Ryan, thank you so much, man. This is fascinating. I'm so curious what is going to happen next with this. And I just I really hope that the positive outcomes that we outlined are more on the menu than the disasters that could come out of this. I guess we'll see.

1:20:37 Uh, I'm, going, to, use, my, Arabic, and, say inshallah. Mhm., There, we, go., Thank, you, very, much.

1:20:43 Thank, you. If, a, guy, hasn't, cohabitated, with, someone else or been married by the time he's 30, there's a one in three chance he's going to be a substance abuser.

1:20:50 There's, nothing, more, dangerous, than, a lonely, broke young man. And the most unstable, violent nations and periods in history have all had one thing in common. I think the biggest threat to America is not Russia or the CCP. It's us. I would have been much happier in my 20s and 30s had I just boy and a girl both. Neither crime is any more or less heinous than the other. But the boy is 10 times more likely to kill himself later in life than the girl. If you were to reverse engineer to the single point of failure for when a boy comes off the tracks and has trouble as a man, it's the following.

Questions about this episode

Who speaks in "Geopolitics Expert: The Real Reason America Captured Maduro | Ryan McBeth"?

Ryan McBth (Guest).

What is discussed in "Geopolitics Expert: The Real Reason America Captured Maduro | Ryan McBeth"?

In order: 0:00 Simón Bolívar, Ryan McBth, Cuban missile crisis, FARC; 20:00 Ryan McBth; 40:00 Ryan McBth.

What is mentioned in this The Jordan Harbinger Show episode?

4 people, works and ideas are mentioned, including Ryan McBth, Cuban missile crisis, FARC, Simón Bolívar. Each one on this page links to its own page with every episode that mentions it.

How long is "Geopolitics Expert: The Real Reason America Captured Maduro | Ryan McBeth"?

The episode runs 1 h 21 min; the transcript is about 15,076 words in 210 timestamped sections.

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