Which Polls? Just One of Them. Lanhee Chen Talks to A&G

What this episode is about

The discussion centers on recent polling data regarding the 2024 presidential race between Biden and Trump, highlighting a narrowing gap in their support and delving into the implications of Trump's declining approval ratings. The analysis suggests that while headline numbers fluctuate, Trump's approval ratings are a crucial indicator of his electoral prospects moving forward.

Key takeaways

• Biden's approval may be shaky, but Trump’s low ratings spell trouble—just ask Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush.
• The race is wide open: 18% undecided could shift the momentum faster than a TikTok trend.
• Trump's strategy? Define Biden before voters do. A modern-day political game of chess with high stakes.
• Suburban women: Trump's secret sauce? A knockout ad on police funding that might just bring them back.
• Voter loyalty feels more like a blind date—many might dislike Trump but even more find Biden hard to love.

Who speaks in this episode?

• Armstrong (Host) · 5 min speaking
• Getty (Host) · 4 min speaking
• Lanhee Chen (Guest) · 4 min speaking

What is discussed, and when

1. 0:00 – 3:00: Joe Biden, Donald Trump
2. 3:00 – 6:00: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Kamal Harris
3. 6:00 – 9:00: Joe Biden, Tech Sergeant Chen, Real Clear Politics
4. 9:00 – 12:00: Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Real Clear Politics

Notable quotes from "Which Polls? Just One of Them. Lanhee Chen Talks to A&G"

• That's kind of a funny thing to say but I don't think the American people I don't think most people have a great sense of how they feel about Joe Biden I think they sort of…

  about Joe Biden · at 2:53

• Have a major problem on his hands in the suburbs that's why I think that is quite good that's why I think people are crazy to think he's gonna pick Camilla Harris cuz she's…

  about Donald Trump · at 4:50

• Interesting Lani Chen of the Hoover Institution and Stanford is on the line what do you say to people on he who in general reject polls he'll say that they're biased or they…

  about Tech Sergeant Chen · at 6:00

Who and what is mentioned in this episode?

People

• Donald Trump — Person · Referenced candidate / subject of analysis · 6 mentions · first at 0:13
  Central figure in the polling and strategy discussion; his approval rating and campaign messaging are treated as key indicators of the race.
• Joe Biden — Person · Referenced candidate / subject of analysis · 6 mentions · first at 0:11
  Discussed as Trump's opponent in the 'trial heat' and as a still-'undefined' candidate whom Trump may try to define; debate performance and suburban support are framed as pivotal.
• Tech Sergeant Chen — Person · Main guest / referenced expert analyst · 1 mention · first at 6:00
  Provides the episode’s core analytical framework: focus on Trump's approval rating rather than head-to-head polling; comments on suburban women, polling error, and debate effects.
• Hillary Clinton — Person · Referenced historical comparison · 3 mentions · first at 3:24
  Used as a benchmark for unfavorable ratings and the 2016 dynamic where voters disliked both candidates; invoked to illustrate how Trump could win despite disapproval.
  Is to define him and to put him into a box that will make him you know potentially as unfavorable as Hillary Clinton was in 2016 well you know now seems like a perfect time…
• Kamal Harris — Person · Referenced potential VP pick (misnamed in transcript) · 1 mention · first at 4:54
  Mentioned as a rumored Biden running mate; discussed in relation to 'defund the police' messaging and perceived electoral risk with suburban voters.
  Good that's why I think people are crazy to think he's gonna pick Camilla Harris cuz she's been on the record saying she's forward to fund the police but anyway back to the…

Companies & orgs

• Real Clear Politics — Company · Reference · 2 mentions · first at 6:22
  Website mentioned as a source for aggregating and analyzing political polls
  Questions about the polling which is why you never rely on any single poll what I like to really do is you know I go to a website called Real Clear Politics and that gives me a…

Full transcript with timestamps

0:00 the Armstrong and Yeti show if I had to bet my own money and it would be a weird situation if I did but if I had to bet my own money on who's gonna win the presidency today I'd put my money on Biden four months ago I'd have put my money on Trump but a new poll came out yesterday Harris poll gap closed in one month Biden was up 10 points nationally now up four points nationally Trump closed six points on that oh and I think that's interesting and sometimes that's you know a snapshot of momentum who knows where we are by now but anyway maybe this is the headline 18% didn't indicate either one of the candidates with 8% saying they're undecided well if you got a four point gap an eight percent undecided it sounds wide open to me Lana he J Chen is the David and Diane's Steffie fellow in American Public Policy Studies at the Hoover Institution did you hear our set up about the poll yeah so you know I

0:56 look a couple things about these polls you know we've talked about this before I think they're going to bounce all over the place over these next several weeks and months the number I keep an eye on is is really trumps approval rating in other words you know we do tend to go immediately to the what we call the trial heat which is Biden versus Trump and look at those numbers and figure out you know where is Trump versus buy them directly but the more impactful number I think that tells us where the race is going is really what the approval rating for Trump is and the one thing I'll just observe about this because the numbers will bounce on that as well is that Trump's approval rating through much of 2019 and the first few months 2020 was pretty solidly in that mid 40 percent range so you know it's called 43 to 45 46 percent what has happened in the last couple of weeks and months in particular

1:49 is that number has dipped to the low 40s and in some cases the high 30s the reason why that matters is because if Trump stays in that low forties range it is going to be exceedingly difficult for him to get reelected that is like Ginny Carter George HW Bush territory if his numbers stay in the mid 40s and or higher I think he's got a legit shot at getting reelected so that's the number I really pay attention to guys well the only saving his bacon if that numbers say we're hovering around 40% would be if the Democrats ran an incredibly weak candidate like a really old guy yeah a really old guy who doesn't have any license well there's also a well and I mean this is the other thing is that even though we all feel like we know Joe Biden because he's been around forever and and you know we probably followed this a little bit more than than the average of the average American I'm good for them yeah no kidding I'm jealous of

2:48 them and it's certainly true that Joe Biden is pretty undefined still I know that's kind of a funny thing to say but I don't think the American people I don't think most people have a great sense of how they feel about Joe Biden I think they sort of know who he is but that's what Donald Trump's opportunity is right now which is to define Joe Biden over these next several weeks and months because we still have a long way to go there's a lot of definition left to happen and you know I think that that really is the opportunity for Trump it is to define him and to put him into a box that will make him you know potentially as unfavorable as Hillary Clinton was in 2016 well you know now seems like a perfect time Shawn to play clip number one it's just 30 seconds long this is a new Trump campaign ad about Biden and defunding the cops you have reached the 911 police emergency line due to defunding of the

3:43 police department we're sorry but no one is here to take your call if you're calling to report a rape please press 1 to report a murder press 2 to report a home invasion press 3 for all other crimes leave your name and number and someone will get back to you our estimated wait time is currently 5 days goodbye J Trump and I approve this message that's better love me let me tell you why that ad is brilliant it's good that added know that that is very good because it speaks directly to a constituency that Trump desperately needs to gain support with and that is suburban women mmm the Bourbon women left him in they left the Republican Party in 2018 that's why the Democrats were able to have those massive victories in the house and that is a constituency that I think he still needs to win a security mom and and and that issue goes straight at them and you know what if if Biden does not come out even

4:46 more clearly and forcefully against this ridiculous defund movement he's gonna have a major problem on his hands in the suburbs that's why I think that is quite good that's why I think people are crazy to think he's gonna pick Camilla Harris cuz she's been on the record saying she's forward to fund the police but anyway back to the approval rating rating slightly which fits into all this what we were just saying isn't Trump unique in that there are people who say no I don't approve of him but I'm gonna vote for him and in a way that other candidates haven't been through the years cuz I know lots of people that are gonna vote for Trump who are so annoyed on a daily basis by things he does yes yeah I mean I bet you're right that if there's any candidate to test that proposition it is it is Donald Trump I guess what I would say is this goes to the acceptability of Jill Biden right it is the case that if they don't approve

5:36 of him but they also don't approve of Joe Biden that they could very well vote for him and that's what happened in 16 people disapproved of Donald Trump but guess what they disapproved of Hillary Clinton as well so they went and vote for Donald Trump the problem Trump's gonna have is this if they disapprove of Trump but they a of Biden or at least our fine tolerating him he's not getting those voters and so I do think the dynamic in 20 is gonna be a little different interesting Lani Chen of the Hoover Institution and Stanford is on the line what do you say to people on he who in general reject polls he'll say that they're biased or they don't pull enough Republicans or what-have-you well I think they're right to to ask questions about the polling which is why you never rely on any single poll what I like to really do is you know I go to a website called Real Clear Politics and that gives me a bunch of different polls

6:28 and I look at the trend you know I really look to see okay what's happening in general so for example I don't think Biden's up ten points or nine points III think he's up by a relatively substantial margin given the trend but I don't think it's a specific number I think it's somewhere in a range and so it's helpful for people to look at polls as a snapshot in time but not as gospel so it's important to think about polls in in the context of a lot of different polls together and taking it as just one piece of information that's kind of how I would think about polls but you people are right any single poll could have massive problems it could under sample certain people it could over sample others it could have just caught someone on a bad day or you know what guys people lie all the time when they get asked about polls right and I tell you why why do they do then I hear that too I'd be scared to tell pollsters oh why

7:19 are you scared of telling a pollster anything but that that's a fact oh yeah I mean there's something actually in the political science literature called the Bradley effect you guys member maybe remember a guy named Tom Bradley mmm the former mayor of Los Angeles and and there was actually a thing back when when he was running I forget what for what office he was running for higher office than mayor of LA where people were asked about who they would support and people would actually say they were supporting Bradley because they didn't want to be perceived as racist so this notion that people will give a false response to a to a pollster is actually pretty well-documented i just--can rusher I just can't imagine illegal pollster but I'm a different person oh yeah you're a little more stubborn than the average human being but I in you know one more factor on the polls Lonnie and I haven't been trained in this but I

8:09 think I could do it pretty well intuitively if you want if you asked me to design questions to get a specific result I could do it I mean and it wouldn't happen to be blatant there's their subtle shadings of wordings you can do to move the numbers without even trying hard yeah and and and you have something called push polling right which is where you give people a bunch of crazy facts some of which may or may not be true and then you ask them hey you like this guy or not so you have those kind of polls as well so guys like you know you're a guy who's been paid to figure this sort of stuff out an actual presidential campaign so I'm gonna listen to you you say keep your eye on the approval rating so if his approval rating goes up you know it here in the next week or so to match the change in the polls then it might mean something yeah I mean I think it's got to go up meaningfully so you know if he goes from 40 to 42 that

9:00 doesn't mean a lot to me if he goes from 40 to 45 then I look at it right and and and I'll say this I think if he ends up with an approval rating by the time we get to election day if that approval rating is back into the mid-40s it is going to be a very competitive race and Trump has a very good chance of winning can there be a long can there be a lasting major effect from a debate does that ever happen lasting not so much temporary absolutely temporary doesn't matter yeah temporary doesn't matter I'm just loves a perfect example Yeah right Romney had a great first debate got a huge bounce out of it that's to lock the election yeah decides I just I don't remember any lasting major switches because of a debate but if Biden comes out you know as you said people still don't know really know who he is a lot of people don't remember that he's aged since he was vice president if he comes out is

9:52 obviously old and doddering which he wasn't yesterday by the way but if he came out and did that by debate stage I wonder if the numbers would move significantly I have no idea it could be I don't know about you Lonnie I'm looking forward to the debates like the same feeling that I had sitting down for my kids piano recitals I was just now please don't be a disaster yeah well I can't wait we can't wait to have you on after the debate oh yeah I mean yeah lon he J 10 of the Hoover Institution the Dave and Diane Stephie fellow in American public policy studies that fine place lon he thanks a million thanks guys appreciate we'll talk soon yeah because of trumps upset win for the rest of my life people will be claiming the polls are wrong remember Trump even though the polls usually are right but do you do have this he mentioned Real Clear Politics average that is the best way to go about it an

10:50 average a bunch of polls but here's the last one somebody tweeted this out yesterday the last wisconsin poll had clinton up the average all the latest polls in Wisconsin had Clinton up six point five points she lost by 0.7 it was very close but Trump eked it out but still that's it almost well that's a seven point turnaround right average of all the polls yeah well and I'm guessing the margin of error was probably around three and a half percent so you had a three and a half percent wait what just happened which is a pretty significant percentage in a battleground and some of those polls were you know a couple of weeks before the election before Komine came out and said we found anthony Weiner's laptop the investigations back on semen that was when he was here a hero of the right yeah oh yeah oh yeah a villain of the left right like he's just worried he might as well just get a paycheck from Trump right hilarious yeah

11:50 no kidding when is the definitive book on that I almost call him a clown that's the wrong term that massive nut so does that book gonna be read so many questions yeah no kidding you

Questions about this episode

Who speaks in "Which Polls? Just One of Them. Lanhee Chen Talks to A&G"?

Armstrong (Host), Getty (Host), Lanhee Chen (Guest).

What is "Which Polls? Just One of Them. Lanhee Chen Talks to A&G" about?

The discussion centers on recent polling data regarding the 2024 presidential race between Biden and Trump, highlighting a narrowing gap in their support and delving into the implications of Trump's declining approval ratings. The analysis suggests that while headline numbers fluctuate, Trump's approval ratings are a crucial indicator of his electoral prospects moving forward.

What is mentioned in this Armstrong & Getty episode?

6 people, works and ideas are mentioned, including Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Tech Sergeant Chen, Hillary Clinton, Real Clear Politics, Kamal Harris. Each one on this page links to its own page with every episode that mentions it.

How long is "Which Polls? Just One of Them. Lanhee Chen Talks to A&G"?

The episode runs 12 min; the transcript is about 2,370 words in 14 timestamped sections.

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