Transcript

Liquidity Is Expanding And Panic Buying Has Begun

From Capital Flows · Episode page · Watch on YouTube

· 1 h 19 min · 14,342 words · 123 timestamped sections

This is the full, timestamped transcript of "Liquidity Is Expanding And Panic Buying Has Begun", an episode of Capital Flows published April 27, 2026 (1 h 19 min, about 14,342 words). It mentions 42 people, works and ideas, including Farm D, Capital Flows, FOMC, S&P 500, SMH.

What this episode is about

In this episode of "Liquidity Is Expanding And Panic Buying Has Begun," hosts dive into the current market dynamics leading up to the FOMC meeting, featuring insights from special guest Farm D. They discuss the phenomenon of panic buying, the impact of liquidity expansion, and the psychological conditioning of investors in response to market fluctuations. Listeners will gain valuable perspectives on navigating the volatile landscape, understanding market positioning, and preparing for potential shifts in the coming weeks.

Key takeaways

  • Panic buying is the new normal; who needs a dip when you've been conditioned to buy the highs?
  • This year’s market is like a wild rollercoaster—hold on tight and enjoy the ride!
  • FOMC week: where hedges unwind and the market holds its breath for the next big twist.
  • If you're not positioned long, are you even playing the game right?
  • Epic rallies don’t come with pullbacks; it's a non-stop thrill ride!

What is discussed, and when

  1. – 10:00: Farm D, Capital Flows, Discord, Discord
  2. – 20:00: Geopolitical Risk Premium, Twitter, Liquidity, Farm D
  3. – 30:00: IGV ETF, Liquidity, FOMC, S&P 500
  4. – 40:00: Call skew, IGV ETF, SMH ETF, VIX
  5. – 50:00: Nvidia, Anthropic, OpenAI, Geopolitical Risk Premium
  6. – 1:00:00: Russell, Oracle Corporation, Discord, Discord
  7. – 1:10:00: Bare Market, Credit Cycle
  8. – 1:19:22: Discord, Discord, Substack, Twitter

Notable quotes from "Liquidity Is Expanding And Panic Buying Has Begun"

  • We will go through all of them in the session. So, the special guest that we have today is Farm D. Sir, thank you for showing up and being here. I think I'm I'm trying to think…
    about Farm D · at
  • It'll be laid out at capitalflows research.com afterward for free and then all the proprietary research is laid out on capitalflows research.com as well.
    about Capital Flows · at
  • We haven't seen the Fed kind of move in accordance with that. And so on net, that has caused liquidity to enter the system, which is why equities have ripped so aggressively.
    about Liquidity · at
  • Because we have so much of this the SMH side and then also IGV holding these levels. And so the idea is that the IGV ETF, which is the software ETF, I think this is the biggest…
    about IGV ETF · at
  • The software side rallies, that's even greater. And then on top of all of this, Microsoft is part of that IGB ETF. It's getting all of these index flows. passive continues to…
    about Microsoft · at
  • Interest rate has kind of ticked up a little bit. Inflation swaps have kind of made a new high. Watching core is going to be the key this week because the PCE data is going to be really key to watch.
    about FOMC · at
  • Down. so what? it's still just a consolidation for now. I will say that SMH has hit like really a massive high time frame extension for me. I'm using 50969 to 51069 roughly. call it 510 if you but it properly rounds to the.
    about SMH · at
  • Because I think in terms of let me see if I can pull this up. in terms of this entire move. Nvidia is here at highs, right? We're almost at an all-time high. if that just it's just, going to squeeze above there. But I think the.
    about Nvidia · at

Who and what is mentioned in this episode?

People

  • Farm D — Person · guest · 4 mentions · first at
    Special guest on the live stream discussing market trends and analysis
  • Jerome Powell — Person · Referenced individual · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned in the context of Federal Reserve policies and their impact on the market.
    Ripped and now everyone wants to get you know long and so tech you know the whole idea is tech will be in focus. We have you know Jerome this week who is kind of becoming a fading you know Fed chair as Wars begins to take more of a stand.
  • Marco Papek — Person · Referenced expert · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned in the context of his book on geopolitical alpha and its relevance to market analysis.
    Recently. I shared it in my thread on the on Twitter and it basically shows how geopolitical risk premium works. If you haven't read Marco Papek's book on geopolitical alpha…
  • Mandy & Ralph Ellison — Person · Referenced individual · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned in the context of Oracle's market activities and financial strategies.
    That because I think it's going to have this entire move where sector flows begin to push it up Larry Ellison just hits the bid and we're going to have you this is this goes…
  • Ken Griffin — Person · Referenced individual · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned in the context of market influence and trading strategies.
    Invalidation. Now that I said that, we're taking out this low. Just know. Ken Griffin, he's an avid follower of both of us. And now that he heard me say that, he knows where my stop is.

Companies & orgs

  • Capital Flows — Company · Host organization · 2 mentions · first at
    The organization hosting the live stream, providing financial research and market analysis.
  • Nvidia — Company · Company discussed · 4 mentions · first at
    Discussed in the context of its market performance and impact on the technology sector.
  • Microsoft — Company · Company discussed · 2 mentions · first at
    Discussed in the context of its market performance and role in the technology sector, particularly in relation to the IGV ETF.
  • Substack — Company · Platform mentioned · 7 mentions · first at
    Mentioned as a platform where both the host and guest publish their financial research and insights.
    And then you can go to Farm D's website and all of his work as well to find all the different stuff that he's putting out as well. What I wanted to start with is this chart right here on.
  • Oracle Corporation — Company · Company discussed · 4 mentions · first at
    Mentioned in relation to its financial activities and market positioning, especially in the context of data centers and technology investments.
    Bigger connection with equity long short positioning that's why you know I think IGV is prime to bid and why I'm long Oracle as the best kind of expression of that because I…
  • OpenAI — Company · Company discussed · 4 mentions · first at
    Referenced in the context of AI developments and market share dynamics within the technology sector.
    This chart really interesting. This is the AI adoption rate for each major company. And you can see in blue you have OpenAI which is just you know it's been the first mover and…
  • Anthropic — Company · Company discussed · 3 mentions · first at
    Mentioned in the context of AI market share and developments, highlighting its growing influence in the technology sector.
    Actually think this is really interesting if we move into something this year where you can see Anthropic has a larger market share or excuse me, a larger higher probability of…
  • Discord — Company · Platform mentioned · 11 mentions · first at
    Referenced as a community platform for financial discussions, with a specific call to action to join.
    Follow him on Twitter and all the stuff he's doing. I'm in his Discord. If you guys aren't in his Discord, what are you doing? Not sure. so, and then if you guys have questions, we'll go over all those questions. Even if you have a.
  • Twitter — Company · Platform mentioned · 5 mentions · first at
    Mentioned as a platform for sharing financial insights and market analysis.
    Totally. I love it. I love it. All right, everyone, real fast. If you come to the Twitter page for Farm D, you can go to his Discord right here.
  • Intel Corporation — Company · Company discussed · 4 mentions · first at
    Mentioned in the context of its financial activities and market positioning, especially in relation to technology investments.
    Available afterward. You can go through all of these on your own. But, as of today, Intel kicking off a bond sale to help, fund its $14 billion purchase of an iron and plant.
  • Ninja Trader — Company · Trading platform · 2 mentions · first at
    Mentioned as a platform used for trading and market analysis.
    Encourage you follow at the very least follow FarmD on Twitter and everything that he's doing. And you're also doing like a session for Ninja Trader like every week, right? Or…
  • NinjaTrader — Company · Platform mentioned · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as a platform where Farm D hosts live shows.
    You were on there this week for a few minutes anyways. we do that every week. And then I'm usually on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays for a pre-market segment around 8:40…
  • Cheesecake Factory — Company · Mentioned business · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned in passing in a personal anecdote, with no direct relevance to the financial discussion.
    Buy 6353 tonight. And then, I was out with the family and, they had cheesecake at Cheesecake Factory and I said, I'll have a little bit of whipped cream. That can't hurt.
  • Intel — Company · 2 mentions
  • capitalflows research.com — Company · 1 mention · first at
    And is m macro regime take home run trades. If you want this slide deck it'll be laid out at capitalflows research.com afterward for free and then all the proprietary research is laid out on capitalflows research.com as well.

Products & tech

  • S&P 500 — Product · Financial product discussed · 2 mentions · first at
    Central to the discussion on market trends and performance, serving as a benchmark for the broader market.
    Find all the different stuff that he's putting out as well. What I wanted to start with is this chart right here on the S&P 500. And this maps the different attribution…
  • SMH — Product · Financial product discussed · 5 mentions · first at
    Discussed as a key ETF representing the semiconductor sector, with implications for broader market trends.
  • IGV ETF — Product · Financial product discussed · 3 mentions · first at
    Highlighted as a software ETF with potential for short squeeze, indicating significant market interest.
  • IGV — Product · Financial product discussed · 5 mentions · first at
    Mentioned as a key ETF in the software sector, with implications for market analysis and trading strategies.
    Because we have so much of this the SMH side and then also IGV holding these levels. And so the idea is that the IGV ETF, which is the software ETF, I think this is the biggest…
  • Russell 2000 — Product · Financial product discussed · 5 mentions · first at
    Mentioned in the context of market performance and as an indicator of broader economic trends.
    You notice the wait, where did this go? Hang on a second. the Russell has just been really aggressively rallying and even outperforming on many of the days the S&P 500 and you know tech and things like.
  • SMH ETF — Product · Financial product discussed · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned in the context of market performance and sector analysis, particularly in relation to technology and hardware sectors.
    Down. so what? it's still just a consolidation for now. I will say that SMH has hit like really a massive high time frame extension for me. I'm using 50969 to 51069 roughly. call it 510 if you but it properly rounds to the.
  • Discord — Product · Platform mentioned · 11 mentions · first at
    Referenced as a community platform for financial discussions, with a specific call to action to join.
    Follow him on Twitter and all the stuff he's doing. I'm in his Discord. If you guys aren't in his Discord, what are you doing? Not sure. so, and then if you guys have questions, we'll go over all those questions. Even if you have a.
  • Russell — Product · Financial product discussed · 7 mentions · first at
    Referenced in the context of market trends and performance, particularly in relation to small-cap stocks.
    You notice the wait, where did this go? Hang on a second. the Russell has just been really aggressively rallying and even outperforming on many of the days the S&P 500 and you know tech and things like.
  • Ninja Trader — Product · Trading platform · 2 mentions · first at
    Mentioned as a platform used for trading and market analysis.
    And I took two shots. I actually had puts into this gap down. And I said on that Sunday night that I do the Ninja Trader Live show on Sunday nights.

Concepts & topics

  • Geopolitical Risk Premium — Concept · Key discussion topic · 4 mentions · first at
    Discussed as a factor influencing market movements and investor behavior.
    We see all these movements in green. You see geopolitical risk premium driving markets. And when we were at these lows here especially you had the largest attribution in geopolitical risk it was about 40% 30 40% and then rates were.
  • Liquidity — Concept · Key discussion topic · 4 mentions · first at
    Central to the discussion about market movements and financial conditions.
  • CPI — Concept · Economic indicator · 1 mention · first at
    Discussed as a key economic indicator influencing market trends and financial strategies.
    The CPI data showed energy accelerating. The entire question from here is this feeding into core CPI and creating a real inflation issue or is it just headline and are we going…
  • Bare Market — Concept · Key discussion topic · 6 mentions · first at
    Discussed in the context of market conditions and potential downturns.
    Is that look, you get bare markets in, in equities from like a real recession. not recession scares, right? But a real recession, you're going to get a bare market. and like a rate hiking cycle is going to potentially bring a bare market,.
  • VIX — Concept · Market indicator · 2 mentions · first at
    Discussed as a measure of market volatility and its implications for trading strategies.
    That it was at when we were in the lows, the previous lows. You just had V go back up. Now we're hitting a massive divergence against the VIX and we haven't even made a new low…
  • PCE data — Concept · Economic indicator · 1 mention · first at
    Discussed as a key economic indicator influencing market trends and financial strategies.
    The CPI data showed energy accelerating. The entire question from here is this feeding into core CPI and creating a real inflation issue or is it just headline and are we going to.
  • GDP — Concept · Economic indicator · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned in the context of economic health and its impact on market trends.
    Favor stocks over bonds and then we have also have GDP this week again GDP is positive so we're not seeing a contraction in growth from this inflation kind of picture and then…
  • Call skew — Concept · Market indicator · 2 mentions · first at
    Mentioned in the context of options trading and market sentiment.
    Rising and then in purple here you have tall skew. So when this is moving up people are paying a higher premium for calls versus puts. So we are you know people are in many…
  • Credit Cycle — Concept · Key discussion topic · 2 mentions · first at
    Discussed in the context of market conditions and potential risks.
    Credit cycle has to turn and that turns into delinquencies. Or three, the main one is if crossber flows start to sell and you have, that become a large factor similar to the tariff kind of setup of 2020.
  • PCE — Concept · Key discussion topic · 1 mention · first at
    Discussed in the context of inflation and market expectations.
    Interest rate has kind of ticked up a little bit. Inflation swaps have kind of made a new high. Watching core is going to be the key this week because the PCE data is going to be really key to watch.
  • AI Adoption Rate — Concept · Key discussion topic · 1 mention · first at
    Discussed in the context of market trends and company performance.
    Yeah, here we go. The, I found this chart really interesting. This is the AI adoption rate for each major company. And you can see in blue you have OpenAI which is just you know it's been the first mover and bidding the.

Places & events

  • FOMC — Event · Key discussion topic · 2 mentions · first at
    Central to the discussion on market movements and financial strategies, especially in the context of upcoming decisions.

Media & podcasts

  • Emperor Palpatine — Character · Metaphorical reference · 2 mentions · first at
    Used metaphorically to describe market movements and trading strategies.
    It kind of seems like it might do this which you know and trust me like if you're bearish out there and you're frustrated that price is not going lower. You don't want to short this pig.

Full transcript with timestamps

Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. N. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Hey hey hey. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. N. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Capital Flows live stream. Glad you guys are all here. Today we have a special guest and a lot of interesting things to cover as we're going through the session. Today I have a lot of really interesting charts that I want to cover. This week is going to be very interesting as we head into FOMC. So, uh we'll be covering all of that. If you are here, put something in the comment section so that I'm aware of you guys.

If you guys have any questions or if you guys have any comments that you want to share, they'll pop up on the stream and we will go through all of them in the session. So, the special guest that we have today is Farm D. Sir, thank you for uh showing up and being here. I think I'm I'm trying to think of the exact timing. I think FarmD and myself, I believe we started Substacks almost around the same time or maybe maybe you were a little bit later or I was a little bit earlier or I was a little bit later. I don't remember the timing, but I feel like we both started kind of in the same period of time and a lot of our subscribers overlap and I think a lot of the I always kind of, you know, sometimes bounce ideas off of you and then I know a lot of the people in kind of your Discord will use a lot of your execution for my ideas and things like that. So, thanks for coming on the stream today. Appreciate it. How are

things going? Yeah, good morning. Uh, everything's been going great. Um market's been a lot of fun this year. Uh pretty similar to last year, I guess, the first few months of the year with uh a lot of big down and then a lot of big up, right? So, uh the president's keeping it a little bit wild. And I like that. I like wild.

I like it. I know it is. It is pretty ironic that we're basically running the same exact playbook for 2025.

Yeah. I'll be curious to see if it deviates for the back half, but yeah. Wow. What a what a similar playbook. And uh it definitely has, you know, I think, you know, one of the subtitles for this is the panic buying. Um I mean it definitely has that pavlov effect is in place here.

Um imagine not buying a dip ever again after this. Um and just when you get that that conditioning in place, uh you know, you know what you know what tends to happen next. So yeah,

um very interesting. I I think another year, two years is going to be really really interesting in in this market. We've seen a lot of these this has never happened before situations um over the last year and I think that's only going to increase. Naturally the yard guys show up right when I'm uh

uh doing a live stream so they should be done soon. Sorry background noise but um yeah I mean like last year

we had we effectively hit limit down on NQ intraday on an inside day. Like when have you ever seen that before? The answer is never. You've never seen that before. Um, so, uh, that's just the beginning and, uh, this this rally has been absolutely epic.

Uh, just non-stop. There's not even a daily high or low. Uh, so no pullbacks yet.

Um, so so pretty wild pretty wild year. Yeah, I think, you know, on the on the upside and downside, I think it's very interesting because if you can be at least, you know, not incorrectly exposed going into that, right? Like I think we've we talked about the long side, you know, when we were kind of like at the extreme for a bit, you know, and now we're at highs a little bit. Everyone's kind of thinking, you know, are we going to melt up further or is this going to be a pullback or whatever it might be? And then I think we have FOMC this week, which I think is going to be very interesting for how hedges unwind and how we have a little bit more of an adjustment in positioning that um I want to go through a couple slides on. And I think that this is one of those spots. I know you have a lot more, you know, intraday stuff, but it it for me, this is one of those spots where I really like being on sides, right? Because if I

already have longs and I'm on sides here, that gives me a little bit of cushion, right? Because especially moving into FOMC, do I want to buy the high in equities? Probably not. I'm already positioned long. I already have some longs on. And my entire goal is to say if the market gives me another opportunity, how do I play that? Right? And I think that will kind of connect with some of your views. And so what I what I want to do is, you know, we both have our, you know, charts up. So everyone who is uh, you know, we'll go through the charts that we have and and some other stuff. What I would really like to do in the session is pull together some of the macro ideas that I have on positioning and then really link it to some of the changes that we are seeing in ES in kind of just the broader market and I want to get your thoughts on it and we can kind of go back and forth on on both of it. But everyone who

is here in the chat I really encourage you go follow all the work that FarmD is doing. Um you know you can you know see his Twitter handle. I mean, your your your name right here is your Twitter handle right?

Follow him on on Twitter and all the stuff he's doing. I'm in his Discord. If you guys aren't in his Discord, what are you doing? Not sure. Uh, so, and then if you guys have questions, we'll go over all those questions. Even if you have a different view, you can throw it in the chat. Be like, I think you're completely wrong. You have no clue what you're doing. Great. Let's talk about it. Let's talk about it. Uh so the the couple slides I want to start with and start talking about is on this side of oh yeah by the way really fast my entire goal and is m macro regime take home run trades. If you want this slide deck it'll be laid out at capitalflows research.com afterward for free and then all the proprietary research is laid out on capitalflows research.com as well.

And then you can go to Farm D's uh website and all of his work as well to find all the different stuff that he's putting out as well. What I wanted to start with is this chart right here on the S&P 500. And this maps the different attribution analysis across the S&P 500. So this is just year-to date. Here's the beginning of the year. We see all these movements in green. You see geopolitical risk premium driving markets. And when we were at these lows here especially you had the largest attribution in geopolitical risk it was about 40% 30 40% and then rates were pushing down the index as well because those were repricing and you had some crossber flows uh you know shifting as well. Now, that has shifted. And you will notice right here, the crude side of things has fallen pretty significantly. And actually, I I'm going to cover this in a couple charts that I go through because what you will notice

right here is that, you know, rates have driven, equities less, right? Equities have bid, bonds have kind of remained in their range. Not a huge massive deal has happened. And then you've had equities still bid, especially in the semis. And the market is really deviating from this entire geopolitical risk idea. And here's the key thing I think on this is that a lot of people are saying, well, there's still geopolitical risk. Yeah, maybe in the event that's happening over in the Middle East, but not in its impact in markets. And I actually think there's going to be a little bit more sensitivity because if crude goes off a cliff here and rep things, that's when you're going to have things like Euro stocks and the NICA and all these countries that are short oil be able to bid. This is a a great chart that I saw recently. I I shared it in my thread um on the on Twitter and it basically shows

how geopolitical risk premium works. If you haven't read Marco Papek's book on geopolitical alpha, he goes through basically every single geopolitical risk event that's taken place, I don't know, in the last hundred years in the S&P or in in markets in the US. Um, it's not rocket science that you buy geopolitical risk, right? Like everyone thinks the world's going to end and basically every single time like three to six months later every single time. And you can see here the shift where you have the actual geopolitical risk in the uh uh or actually the actual geopolitical risk premium in markets and then the actual geopolitical risk event right here in this kind of turquoise.

And you'll notice that you know we move up we over extrapolate it which we already did and now we're moving back down. I would say we're probably around here. So, we're probably going to still see a drift, right? And you know, the geopolitical risk is remaining constant, whatever you want to say. You know, if we accelerate above this high in terms of geopolitical risk, we have a major change, then maybe oil can make new highs. Is that going to happen? I don't know. You can go ask all the experts on Twitter and uh I'm just going to keep trading. So, that has set the stage for lower real interest rates. This is one of the ideas that I've covered for a while where this inflation shock has pushed up inflation expectations. The Fed has paused, real rates have fallen, which means that the Fed's inaction is not relative to inflation. So inflation's ticked up a little bit, and we haven't seen the Fed kind of move in

accordance with that. And so on net, that has caused liquidity to enter the system, which is why equities have ripped so aggressively. And on the credit side, you know, this is something that's really interesting if you're watching things like Intel or how exactly credit is flowing into the system. And again, if you want to go through any of these, these will be available afterward. You can go through all of these on your own. But, you know, as of today, Intel kicking off a bond sale to help, you know, fund its $14 billion purchase of an iron and plant.

uh and you basically have a ton of money flowing into markets and they're really timing this because their stock just ripped and now everyone wants to get you know long and so tech you know the whole idea is tech will be in focus. We have you know Jerome this week who is kind of becoming a a fading you know Fed chair as Wars begins to take more of a stand. Uh, by the way, if you have not gone through the section on the substack where I laid this out, if you go to the substack, go to decoding the war testimony right here. I go through the entire video here and there's entire slide deck that you can go through as well. And I would encourage you to go through all of that. On the FOMC's side, we have a $16 billion financing for Oracle, their data center in Michigan.

You know, that's or that's already wrapped up. And then in terms of the broader market, junk bond investors are already getting plenty of exposure with 11 billion in high yield notes sold in the past week. So just think about that. High yield, not this is not investment grade. This is high yield notes. You have 11 billion sold in the last week. I mean it's just a massive amount of money. And then you have you know within this context the like the larger changes that are taking place is that this is more than we have had especially last year on a year-to-ate basis. So the amount of credit entering the system is pretty significant right now. And so the on the public side in the liquidity side we have real rates dropping which is helping pushing capital out the risk curve which is why we're seeing such an aggressive rally. And then we have credit entering the system. The investment banks are still pushing money

into the system. That's one of the key things. And then you have all these kind of meme stocks pumping. That's all helping as well. And the, you know, key thing I would, you know, really point out is that overall April's US junk bond issuance of nearly 30 billion is more than triple the last year's total. So we are more than 3x the amount of credit in the system. And when you have credit entering the system, you know, people are going to look at this and say, "Oh, this is not going to end well. Everyone's getting levered up." Yeah, maybe if their cash flows don't happen.

But right now, there's money flowing into the system. And so you don't want to short, you know, you know, bet on a bare market and get super aggressively short for a, you know, one year or two year bare market when everyone is adding a ton of money into the underlying system, which is why the Russell has actually been rallying pretty significantly right now. You know, if you uh notice the wait, where did this go? Hang on a second. the Russell has just been really aggressively rallying and even outperforming on many of the days the S&P 500 and uh you know tech and things like that. You'll notice kind of on the day today you have, you know, the Russell up outperforming the Dow and then, you know, the NASDAQ is still holding because we have so much of this the SMH side and then also IGV holding these levels. And so the idea is that the IGV ETF, which is the software ETF, I think this is the biggest potential for a

short squeeze because you have so much capital in the system right now. I mean, IGV Vault just went back to the high that it was at when we were in the the lows, the previous lows. You just had V go back up. Now we're hitting a massive divergence against the VIX and we haven't even made a new low in IGV. So it just tells me that if this unwound, you know, IGV is half of the tech sector in the index right now. And so if that unwound, you could see the NASDAQ melt up even more from the software side. Right now it's the hardware side, but if the software side rallies, that's even greater. And then on top of all of this, you know, Microsoft is part of that IGB ETF. It's getting all of these index flows. passive continues to be a massive part of the market that's just bidding these things indiscriminately. So Microsoft is already holding these levels. It's probably going to drag the sector up and then you know with that

you're going to have the all of the Mag 7 side of things and you know I've been going through some of these you know OpenAI changes and things like that. It's been very interesting. And so to go through a couple more slides and I'm going to head it over to um FarmD to kind of chat about this. We have FOMC this week. Right now we have the 2-year interest rate has kind of ticked up a little bit. Inflation swaps have kind of made a new high. Watching core is going to be the key this week because the PCE data is going to be really key to watch.

You know, the CPI data showed energy accelerating. The entire question from here is is this feeding into core CPI and creating a real inflation issue or is it just headline and are we going to you know really roll back over an inflation risk which is why I still favor stocks over bonds and then we have also have GDP this week again GDP is positive so we're not seeing a contraction in growth from this inflation kind of picture and then as all of this is happening we're we've kind of shifted and position it a little bit in sofur so basically what's taken place is that you have had us bid off the low in bonds from the extreme in crude, but now the entire question is everyone's kind of reduced their exposure because everyone kind of you can see here bought the lows in sofur and got really levered up and now everyone's kind of shifting and saying being a little less aggressive on the long side especially as we move into

FOMC. So that's kind of the picture for where we're at overall. Again, you can go through all of these on the the website later and you can go through and and walk through all of them. But FarmD, talk me through a little bit on how you're thinking about stocks, bonds, the relationship between them, kind of what your view moving into this week is, and how you're kind of thinking about maybe some of those elements that I'm talking about or if you, you know, how you kind of fit that into the larger kind of flows that we're seeing right now. Yeah.

I mean, like a lot of this seems really familiar. Almost like has it been almost a year since we did a live stream together? I mean, I think it has been,

man. That's too long, man. That's too long. It is. It is for sure. Um, and and last year, one of the things that we were talking about, and I think I said this is that look, um, you know, you get bare markets in, uh, in equities from like a real recession. Um, not recession scares, right? But a real recession, you're going to get a bare market. um and like a rate hiking cycle um is going to potentially bring a bare market,

right? Scares of war, tariffs, it's not really a cause, uh for a bare market. And so my year ahead plan last year was basically, hey, you know, if we get a correction, the plan's got to be to buy the dip unless there's clear and obvious signs of a recession. Last year, recession risk um as the market was pricing um was screaming higher into the lows. But but why, right, of what evidence was there? There was none. Um the economy still looked fine. Um you could try to forecast that that's going to change or was going to change and you know, you would have been wrong. I try not to do the forecasting and leave that to the smarter macro guys like yourself. For this year, I mean, it looked coming into this year like there was a massive distributive process and we were likely to get a correction in Q1. Um but that was long before the war was a known issue. So why was that? Maybe it was just time for a correction. The uh we

get those right. So same deal unless coming into 2026 there were very clear and obvious signs of a recession. The plan was to buy the dip. Um or obviously some hiking like if you thought you know that whatever Fed chaired Trump put in was going to raise rates this year then um bless you. Um but um you know was very unlikely to happen. And so we get a 10% correction. What happens? It gets bought. Um so no real surprise there. And as he pointed out, like I mean, wow. Uh just the way that financial conditions eased off those lows was I mean pretty incredible, which which was necessary because um as as you're well aware, the perhaps the most important uh liquidity flow into the market is my caloric excess. And I'd been on a diet, right? And so it started in in March 1st and uh went from 232 to to 215 in just a few weeks and the market couldn't handle it. Then I kind of, you know, plateaued a little bit and, you know, in swoop

this liquidity vortex, uh, financial conditions easing, uh, and we're back here, uh, on the moon. And

the lows were the lows when you were when you ordered Dominoes. Was that the low?

You know, all it took I mean, this is how bad they wanted to buy it. Like I had a little bit of whipped cream that night. I mean, I said, "Okay, you know, buy 6353 tonight." And then, you know, I was out with the family and, you know, they had cheesecake at Cheesecake Factory and I said, "I'll have a little bit of whipped cream. That can't hurt." And I I apologize Bears. Uh, that's my fault. So, you know, I've stalled out for a number of weeks on that front and um yeah, the liquidity uh that was needed um an alternative source, you know, a minor source of liquidity um you know, relative to my caloric excess came in and here we are. Um, you know, I've got my intraday chart on, but I'll go I'll go higher. I'll go higher time frame here and just look at like this entire move.

Totally. So, I use a lot of volume profile, but go ahead. Yeah, I think one of the things to to to kind of build on that. One of the things that's interesting that I kind of connect some of these larger ideas is those gap fills over the last two weekends, right? and how you kind of have these like shocks and then the gap fills and those have kind of like set these levels, right? I don't I don't know if you kind of have any thoughts on those or those as like a starting point for this rally that we've had, right? Where we just keep on you you kind of have some news over the weekend and everyone gets scared and then you just immediately rip it as soon as we hit cash equity, right?

Yeah. I mean, if you're looking for some kind of a a I don't want to say top at this point, just like a swing high would be cool. uh if you're looking for any kind of a swing high, like a gap down is the absolute last thing you want. It is in a in a rampid uptrend. It's getting bought every single time. Um and the way that we flitted back and forth between, oh my gosh, risk just became elevated. Uh let's add some hedges to haha, just kidding, everything's fine. Burn off those hedges. I mean, it really has been uh you know, some some genius tap dancing here that uh ultimately drives the market higher. markets are designed to go up and to the right. And you add something like that, you know, some kind of a regular cadenced every other day ball crush, lol to your put situation.

Um, and where do you think we're going? I mean, we're going we're going higher, right? And you look at this move off the lows off the 6350s on the ES and and truly there has not been any kind of a daily higher low. We haven't been in any kind of a downtrend. I do use a lot of volume profile. I'm not like just a volume profile trader, but it's just a volume profile. It just shows volume as it traded at price as opposed to volume by time which you could have you know you normally see on the bottom axis here. Um there's a lot of information to be gleaned from this and it became very very clear effectively right here. Um this this defense right here pretty much said okay well this shit's about to get crazy. Um and then obviously you know you got this this big move here overnight but no pullback in terms of a daily higher low. And that's ultimately what's going to be important to really tell us the strength and durability

durability of this trend. And I mean, if you look at that, I mean, and if you just look at a 50% retrace, like bulls have a mile uh to put in a higher low. We've been consolidating in this this range for a few days. Um, and ES has struggled to break it. You can see we're flirting with the top of it. This yellow box is basically the prior all-time high on an ETH basis. 7043 there was 7031 um was the prior cash RTH uh so RTH for our terminology uh cash session high we are well above that there's nothing bearish about that there's nothing bearish about building volume above that um what happens from here then again we're kind of struggling a little bit with this break um and I'm going to flip to NQ real quick and then come back and I'll mention something on SMH so NQ Q basically did that same consolidation here, but due to the strength and SMH, it ripped. And these boxes up here are just flat out simple, easy extensions.

Just clone a box, stack it on top. Sometimes it really is as easy as that. You can see it was pretty clean um at least for first touches overnight. We had an excursion back above this other box. Now we're back inside here. So like ENQ has already done the break. And so this is what can be expected from ES broadly. Um if and when it sustains a break of that range. Again, it's sort of flirting with that. The risk is if it fails that that break and gets sucked back into this range, it could come back down. Um so what? Um it's still just uh a consolidation for now. Um I will say that SMH has hit like really a massive massive massive high time frame extension for me. Um I'm using 50969 to 51069 roughly. Um, call it 510 if you like, but it it properly rounds to the numbers that I gave. Um, but again, like that's not like a top call. It's just like, hey, you know, things are a little bit extended. NQ did what it just did.

Multiple extensions off only of a three-day range. That's a that's a big move, right? Um, and so I agree with with you that like am I adding like index long exposure up here? Absolutely not. Did I add index long exposure at 6350? Absolutely. Yes. Um I've peeled a little bit off personally um because I'm a boomer like that. Um but um you know I would like to have some cash available to buy a potential dip. And really like honestly in terms of my forecasting for the rest of the year. I still need to see a daily higher low. Like I need to see how that plays out. I need to see where a meaningful dip is bought. Um and see, you know, how strong how aggressive bulls come in. Um, but it's it's very clear. The one thing that is very clear is that there really are are are no meaningful sellers in this tape at all.

Uh, there have not been uh for some time. And so what happens then is you're waiting for like I've been calling this kind of a, you know, a bit of a positioning unwind into a positioning rewind. Um, you know, not just in equities and and even less so maybe in equities on the on the downside. I mean, there wasn't really any kind of a wash out, like a a really good wash out in positioning. I didn't feel anyways. You might disagree. Um, but but it really seems like the FX markets and the rate markets got I mean, they just got splun around big time um on the way down. And so now we get this rewind on the way back up. Certainly CTAs obviously naturally they got maxed short in the hole because they're amazing traders. Um and now they're, you know, they're ripping it in, you know, max long up into the highs. fall control funds are, I'm sure, jamming it in up here. Um, you've got, you know, the NAIM co

cohorts back up approaching 100 again. I mean, everybody's getting it all in up here. It's all very, very exciting, but it doesn't necessarily mean it's a good place to be able to manage risk effectively because where are you wrong if you're initiating any kind of a meaningful long up here? Um, you know, where are you where are you wrong? Um, and given that there's no daily higher low to work with, you don't know. Once you do get that daily higher low, any kind of a pullback. So, in order for that to happen, to me, there needs to be some kind of a clear downtrend on a on a 30 minute chart, right? This is just a box. This was not a downtrend. So, show me lower highs, lower lows. And then what has happened every single time um in the last two years? Um so, this is like your huge clue. Um, it's happened every single time in the last few years, except for basically twice, uh, which led to the downtrend in 2024 or 2025,

sorry, and this year in 2026. But what's happened pretty much every other time is once we get a downtrend on a 30-inut chart, lower highs, lower lows, and then flip back into an uptrend on that same 30 minute chart and 30-minut time frame, we make new highs. So, that I think should be the expectation one would operate on if we do get some kind of meaningful pullback. Um, I think you got to be really careful about any pullback that's brought about by some news headline. I mean, unless it's like, you know, some kind of really major headline blow up of some banks or like some, you know, something crazy, right? That's going to change your views, for example.

Um, but if it's just like some headline nonsense, that's not uh likely to be durable. Um, what's likely to put in some kind of durable swing high is going to be buyers completely exhausting out to the upside. um the bid starts to vacate, absent news, sellers just come in and say that's that's enough. You know, it's time to take some some profit. And then you're still looking for some kind of a daily higher low to present. I will add and then I'll shut up. You know, there will be some high time frame risks. If we get back below the prior all-time high, I'll go to a higher time frame just so you can look left a little bit. Um, if we get back into this range, say this darker orange range in particular, I mean, we could come all the way back down to the bottom in theory. It doesn't mean that we will.

Bulls are bulls are fantastic at buying dips. Uh, sellers suck at defending rips, right? Like, so sellers had an opportunity to defend a lower high anywhere in here. I mean, just anywhere in here, and they did nothing. I bulls are much better at it. Again, markets are designed to go up and to the right. know your risk. But like again, um if and when we start a downtrend, I mean, if you drop, you know, just a straight retracement of like 50%, you're gonna look at SK like it's if you're long here, you're going to [ __ ] your pants.

Sorry, uh your YouTube rating, but like you're gonna I mean, you're going to be in trouble, right? But if you've got a a good position at a good location, like you said, you're on size, you don't care. Um and you're just looking for an opportunity to add. And so that's where we're at now. And I'm definitely interested to see um if this SMH 510ish area um is is stiff enough to lead us to a pullback a week with earnings and FOMC. Who the hell knows what can happen? I don't have any reason to expect earnings are going to be bad and that would be the last thing you'd look for is good earnings getting sold, which we saw earlier. The market was weak at that time. The market is not weak now.

So, we'll see. Yeah. Let me let me kind of go through one chart and then throw this back to you on the this side of underlying sectors SMH and kind of what you're talking about here because this is you know for tech tech is 35% of the index okay tech is broken down into two sectors software and hardware hardware basically represented by SMH the SMH ETF software basically represented by the IGV ETF so if you have a view on those then you're going to have a decent view on tech overall. And so this is the SMH ETF right here in white. And then you have in blue here you have implied V.

And you'll notice that you had implied V tick up when we kind of moved into this range right here. And then you had it kind of come back down a little bit as we melted up and retraced this. But then you had implied V rise right here as the index was rising as well. So you basically had V rising as the index is rising and then in purple here you have tall skew. So when this is moving up people are paying a higher premium for calls versus puts. So we are you know people are in many ways panic buying all of the names in this space and buying way more calls than puts. And so you have the 25 delta call minus the 25 delta put. And so, you know, when I see a ton of calls bid up on this side, makes me a little less aggressive, right? It doesn't want, you know, unless I have a fundamental reason to be short, not really interested in getting short.

But to be fair, on the equity long short side, so for example, when you look at, you know, SMH right here, hang on, SMH, and then you overlay IGV. I mean, I think this is just one of the most important things in markets. you can, you know, see especially when we, you know, with the this period of time that we've moved into a lot of these short-term signals like for example, you know, right here when you see IGV begin to move down and then you see SMH move up, especially when you have shocks to the index, you know, the index drags SMH down a little bit right here. But overall when you have these moves down in IGV I'm watching these very carefully because you have SMH move up which is this is almost certainly you know equity long short positioning that are short the software sector and long the other side and you can see even IGV rallying right here and then it pulls down SMH as these guys you know when you have these

trades run you know people have to put up and take down both sides of the trade which is again another reason this this is one aspect of positioning right when you have this, you know, move up today and another, you know, two two days in a row gapped up and then you have IGV kind of rolling over just a little bit, but we're still above these levels, right? That's an indication of a really clear indication of positioning to me which is why I'm watching both of these sectors so clearly because this goes back to the slide deck that I shared which is you know right here we have on the IGV side you know again VA is really overextended for not for IGV not making a new low so it of all the the sectors right now IGV has the highest implied VA it's almost at a new high and the VIX is at lows, right? And then call skew is blowing out in the semis, right? So you have these positioning things taking place as we're

moving into FOMC and kind of going to this this view, this larger view of that you're talking about for this execution. Maybe you can kind of expand on that a little bit more for SMH and IGV and how you kind of think about both of those. Yeah, I mean the first thing is um we've definitely seen that as a bit of a pair trade, right? And anytime SMH has been weak, it seems like IGV is bid. And I I think you would agree in this general uptrend situation um that the play on prospective SMH weakness would not necessarily be short the NASDAQ. It might be long IGV um as opposed, you know what I instead of directly shorting. So that that could be a play here. I do I still don't love initiating um you know with with indices up at a high. But I I will touch on SMH. I am I am definitely going to be sanctioned by the ancient order of the furu for sharing this on SMH, but it was asked um and I'm going to do it. You're only

going to get it here. Um I'm not posting this on X broadly. Uh so it's sometimes it's as it's as simple as this. I mean, you kind of got to know how to draw a good box, but if you if you like box as much as I do, here's my SMH chart. I have two consolidation ranges. A high time frame consolidation range. I've doubled that box. Where's the top of that box? 510. I've got another consolidation range here on SMH, this kind of darker darker shaded purple. I've got a clone box two times. Where's the top? 510. Um, so to me, this is a very very important extension. Sometimes it's as simple as traditional fibs as a or traditional extensions not fibs. Um, a lot of people will use Fibonacci extensions. I tend to prefer to use ranges. Um, and if you can get your ranges done correctly, and I I do I think my starter kit has a video that the free starter kit um I don't recall on Substack. I think it has a video on

drawing boxes or at least the trades we can take off of boxes. Now, from there, if this does end up being um you know, a local high anyways for SMH, I also have go to my highlights tab on um X. I think everybody should watch this. It was basically um on ES back when it was uh trading right at the new all-time high, right? It had just broken out. And uh so I did a video on like what a top looks like um and the risks of attempting to short a multi-month breakout to the upside which obviously we can see um shorting the index since it broke 7031 has not worked out very well. Um but all of that can be translated to any kind of a swing high, you know, swing high, top.

We shouldn't use the word top so loosely. The market never tops. Equity markets um it only has major highs, right?

Moment momentary pullbacks. That's that's right. Sometimes longer than moment momentary, but it but it uh yeah, it it never fails to make a new high. Uh sometimes takes a very very long time if if you came of age in the 2000s. But um you know what you would be looking for from here is like first of all SMH would have to take out a prior day low, right? I mean you kind of have to go a little lower before you can go lower. Um and that would just sort of

pause this short time frame uptrend. Okay, you can see we took out a prior day low back here. Um and what happened? We just ripped, right? Um we took out a prior day low here. We just ripped, right? So, absent forming some kind of a bullish engulfing candle, if we take out a prior day low, we're going to form some kind of a fresh box range, right? That range would then have to break to the downside,

right? Which that we have not had. All we've had is consolidation go mostly go without consolidation, consolidation go. As long as these boxes are breaking to the upside, these multi, it's very, very simple. Um, and you can see it on your volume profile as well. As long as volume is building, you'll get these areas of low volume as we rip through to a new area of consolidation, another uh higher volume area, a rip through to another. That's all you need to look at. Until one of those is given back um and flip to resistance, we go higher. Um it really is as easy as that. So, there's a lot of um a lot of bears that have, you know, been buying puts all the way up.

And I took two shots. Um I actually had puts into this gap down. And I mean, I said on that Sunday night that I do the Ninja Trader Live show on Sunday nights. Um, market prep for the week. I'm like, h well, it's the last thing I wanted to see. This isn't going to end well. Um, I had puts there. Um, and then I I took a paper cut. Uh, I don't know, somewhere in here, maybe. Um, but after that, you know, I'm just like, nope. Um, this is continuing to build higher and higher. Uh, it it really is as simple as that. So, like, I don't care what your resistance levels are. I don't care how extended it is. I don't care what the RSI is. um show me any kind of willingness to give back a prior area of consolidation or we simply go higher. So um I have not been shorting this. Um in fact I'm still sitting in runners long on INQ actually and I'm sort of expecting partially an what I call Emperor Palpatine on it. Uh kind of

depends what SMH does. If you've seen the the Star Wars I guess it was Revenge of the Sith um where you know he I'm too weak and then you know unlimited power. It kind of seems like it might do this which you know and and trust me like if you're bearish out there and you're frustrated that price is not going lower. You don't want to short this pig more than me. Like trust me you don't. Um and but I'm not going to short it if it's not a not a short, right? So, I like to when you're bearish, the the best thing I can recommend, not financial advice, when you're bearish in an uptrend, the best thing to do is take longs, right? Because then you like make money, right? You make money and then you can just say, "Come on, come on, you [ __ ] Stop me out, right? You just ch, you know, root for for getting stopped out on your long because then you're happy either way, right?" Like, it's a win-win situation. So, that's

where I'm at. Um, I think this is a big spot. I think it's a risky spot uh to be initiating new longs outside of day trades. Um but if I can peel off 50, 60, 70, 100 handles on NQ for a day, like I'm good with that. Too many good ideas here. Too many good ideas. Um I think uh so a couple things then we'll go over some questions. But I I really like what you're kind of talking about here because I think in terms of let me see if I can pull this up. in terms of this entire move. You know, Nvidia is here at highs, right? We're almost at an all-time high. I mean, if that if that if that just it's just, you know, going to squeeze above there. But I think the key thing that I'm watching is I'm not interested in getting short SMH. But what I would say is that because there's so much V in IGV right now if you have this press up a little bit one I think it's going to push the index ES up if it if it pulls if you know if you have

equity long short positioning especially say like oh you know we're getting squeezed out of IGB so we have to sell SMH and SMH gets sold a little bit then I would be a buyer I would as soon as as soon as SMH So if if IGGB starts to squeeze and then SMH, you know, pulls back a little bit and then, you know, begins to find a little bit of a bottom, I would just slam the bid. And and I think that connects to the index as well because once you have, you know, if you start seeing that type of unwind, whichever way that I I mean, I don't think the index will go down on that because basically what you have right now is, you know, I pulled up the waitings right now. We have Nvidia is the largest waiting at 8%. I don't think Nvidia is kind of this like safe play in the entire semis. So I even think that if you have equity long short positioning unwind there it won't even be primarily in Nvidia and then you have

Microsoft is the third largest waiting and so if you have Microsoft bidding which is in the IGV sector it's likely to out it's likely to offset any Nvidia selling that might take place which again I don't think Nvidia selling is going to take place but if we have a sector rotation and these guys have to unwind both sides of their trade the amount of buying pressure in IGV that is going to push up the index is going to be pretty significant. And so that's why, you know, I mean, I think the interesting thing here going back to kind of your shorter term charts is, you know, my view is that if we bid down here and reject these levels into FOMC or if we just have this little pullback into FOMC, I'm a buyer. But I think the Russell is actually more primed to bid because we have a tighter compression of a range right here. and NQ has, you know, it's trend up, which I'm not really interested in betting against,

but the Russell, it's the beneficiary of all the capex that's taking place, which I actually need to show you this chart. This is actually kind of an insane chart. Uh, let's see. Yeah, here we go. The, you know, I found this chart really interesting. This is the AI adoption rate for each major company. And you can see in blue you have OpenAI which is just you know it's been the first mover and bidding the most and then we've kind of come and consolidated a little bit but now you have Anthropic really being the primary bidder and and market share taker.

They're at 30% just under OpenAI now. you know, OpenAI just released a new model, but we're still seeing Anthropic take market share, which is why I actually think this is really interesting if we move into something this year where you can see Anthropic has a larger market share or excuse me, a larger higher probability of going IPO than OpenAI right now. And I think it's connected to this data which is key because the you'll notice that in the in the IGV sector the last two points where I think it was right here and then somewhere around right here when Anthropic released its new model and OpenAI released its new model that was those were the key catalysts that were causing all this selling pressure on the downside and then you know this is the geopolitical risk premium right here when we just move right here and the largest driver that was pushing it down just faded it and then you have this

bigger connection with equity long short positioning that's why you know I think IGV is is prime to bid and why I'm long Oracle as the best kind of expression of that because I think it's going to have this entire move where sector flows begin to push it up Larry Ellison just hits the bid and we're going to have you this is this goes back to my like broader thesis which is I just think the hardest the hardest thing and I and I I say this about like just short-term trades and myself included is you know it's hard to buy ES here when it's at highs right no one likes to do it but the entire point is that like there are certain periods of time where like panic buying occurs and it just is up day up day up day and that's what really pulls people in because then they feel like they're missing something by not being long and I think that's why we've been in this period of time. And in my view,

if you have this IGV rotation unwind, which it seems like that's what it's setting up for and all that premium gets taken out and hedge funds have to unwind their positioning or else they're getting fired for underperforming the index that could cause this other insane update update update. What What do you kind of think about that kind of idea right now in in kind of your framework?

Yeah, that's that's definitely where we are and you can see it in the tape. I mean, you could see the panic buying on Friday. Um, if you're a profile trader at all, um, very very obvious. Um, it's very clear that nobody wants to be left out of this. Um, this move and I do think there's room for rotation, you know, from here. We have seen a tremendous amount of intraday dispersion at times. You mentioned the Russell, uh, which just understand if I take a long on the Russell, it's going to zero like imminently. So, you don't want me. Uh, but but I I I don't disagree at all. Um, that it has this nice range of consolidation. You kind of drew a little box on your chart. That's all it's doing.

Um, it's got a good looking low uh as do all the indices uh from Thursday. Um, it has a fair fairly nice looking high as well. And so, it's just stuck in range. Um, and so if I wouldn't curse Russell by taking a trade on it, um, I would definitely be looking for trades on the Russell. I'll flip over to a to my weekly profiles and RTY just so you have some kind of look. You can see what I would be looking for. So, you can see that you've got a a decent looking low uh over here from Thursday. You've got a decent looking high. We're all we're trapped inside that. It's going nowhere until it breaks outside of that range or gets some kind of a failed break outside of the range. That said, um let's just mark out a couple of spots here. I'm going to mark this one and I'm going to at least mark this one. So, this is interesting to me. Um what you get is once you've got some kind of a good high in place and a good low in place, that

makes a broadening formation. You see lower lows here, you see higher highs here, all of this is compression within that. This move here is potentially uh what I say is a failed attempt at expansion, right? it it didn't really find any traction above these highs, gunning for this new high. So, you might get a pullback to potentially buy on the Russell off there if we get some follow-through basically through I guess was that uh the pullback low overnight. Um and so like maybe tomorrow you get a failed attempted expansion to the downside that comes through let's say this 2771 can't get through and and possibly even this backside lower wick.

It could take this one. Um, but you get a failed attempt at expansion to the downside then that can't get through this low and finds its way back in in range. So, this is clearly this is value from last week. We're kind of playing pingpong between there from the overnight low. Um, and then, you know, these highs here. Uh, so you can see that's what's happening. So if you get some kind of failed move to the downside, reclaim last week's value or at least somewhere in these 27 mid 2770s, that would be your opportunity to express a view on the long side on the Russell to me, which I definitely will not do because all of our 401ks depend on it. If I buy calls on IWM, it's over um and Russell goes possibly possibly negative. So, um, those are the kinds of things that I look for. You know, if you've got a view, if you're looking to express something, um, you know, I've got the trade setups there. I mean, some

people just like to keep in touch with with big picture and the markets. Um, and they'll sign up for like the X subscription and just take the weekly plans. They've got really good levels. There'll be a few trade ideas in there. You at least have a general idea. I mean, there are literally some people that are in there and they actually are in the Discord just because they want to know when I'm sniffing something because I do love to short this pig. Um, and if I am shorting the pig, it's probably not good for your equity longs and they some of them will literally just be long as all hell um until that time comes, right? So, we've got the X subscription if you just kind of want to keep in touch. You don't trade actively at all.

Um, you know, maybe a few trades a month or whatever. um want to have a good idea of big picture things where they're going, ideas such as I just kind of demonstrated. Um Substack now has has daily plans as well. So if you're a little bit more active, maybe you take a few trades a week, um and I want to be a little bit more in touch with, you know, what I might be sniffing out, you know, both in terms of bottoms or tops. Um and then obviously if you're an active trader, really want to learn how to trade, um then the Discord is more more appropriate. So something like the 6353 long, you know, I reposted that. Um, that was a long setup um that I kind of pounded the table on. Could could produce a swing low um that happened overnight, whatever day it was, Monday evening, I think it was back down at the lows. Um, you know, those are obviously things you're only going to get with more realtime action. But, um, there are

a lot of people, as you mentioned at the start of this, uh, that are are, you know, members for for both of us, um, that will use the levels, use the trade setups that I have to sort of express your bigger picture views. and when they align um it tends to be very powerful. There's only there really hasn't been a time where we've been um really strongly conflicted. There was one time where bears had like a narrow window. You were bullish, bears had like a narrow window and I said, "I'm going to take my shot here." Um and it worked for like a little bit and then I just ended up getting ass blasted. Um that was really the only time like we've kind of been on opposite sides, like outright opposite sides, I think. Um, but when things do align, like if I'm saying this is along and you're saying we're going to melt up, we usually go a lot higher. So, um, I think there's a lot of power in the confluence there.

Totally agree. Yeah. I think it's it's cool because I'll get messages from people that say like, "Oh, yeah. I read all of your stuff on the subsack and then I just go to Farm D's stuff and I take kind of the the stuff that he talks about and kind of pull it together and then take my trades and run my risk." And I'm just like, "That's awesome, you know." um especially to have kind of the active, you know, Discord and stuff like that because I don't have that, right? I'm I'm kind of more focused on going and finding other stuff and spending most of my time doing research and pulling together all these views for things. So, I think it's

I think if you know how to like pull that together, I think it's super valuable because I I feel that the times that we've really aligned aggressively, right? Like I'm sure there's little moments in time where we have different time frames or views or whatever, but the I feel like the times that we've aligned the most with the most conviction, it's basically been the same. And we've been like, "Yeah, we're going to hit the bid. We're going to hit the sell, whatever it might be, right?" And I mean, most of it has been the bid.

I, you know, I my view continues to be that we're in this pretty insane meltup. We're at all-time highs in terms of equity valuations. not prices but equity valuations and we're moving into the largest IPOs in human history,

right? I mean those are those are things that you need to be aware of, right? And so I think that's why especially this year I'm so more I'm so specific in the the bets that I'm taking with PER and Oracle and really trying to trade around more because I think you have to you know you have to really be aware of that type of stuff. Um, so I think that, you know, my entire view is that there's going to be some really interesting things that come up this year. I want to go through a couple of these questions and just kind of go through them a little bit faster. And then for Oracle, I do think that we need to have the sector flow unwind a little bit and then we'll have it outperform. Again, that goes back to the attribution index that I've shared on the Substack. I'll link it below after in the the report. So if you're a subscriber on the substack, free subscriber, you'll get the link for that. Uh but yeah, I think that oracle

partially needs the sector to bid a little bit, but it's the fundamentals that are really mispriced in my view on gold and silver. I think if the dollar makes new lows, even if fields don't move, as long as real rates move down, which is, you know, if we go to real rates right now, they're making new lows right now, which is pretty significant. I mean, real rates across the board are making new lows. So, my view is that if you have real rates making new lows and equities are kind of in the setup they're in right now, I don't want to be short this market when real rates are making new lows and you have the, you know, sector side, you know, Nvidia pushing to oop, sorry, Nvidia pushing to all-time highs. So, you know, if you have real rates making new lows right here, one year real rates, I mean, we're 28 basis points from real rates turning negative. I mean, just think about that.

Real rates turned negative in 2021 and we had one of the largest meltups in human history. We're 28 basis points from that happening again. And that doesn't even count if we have some type of like shock that or if we have AI begin to pull some of this inflation out of the market and the productivity gains from it and you have wars cut into this, right? And so two-year real rates also, you know, we're 81 pips from turning negative. Fiveyear real rates are basically in a range. 30-year we're basically sitting in the same spot and the market is not really I mean I think the fact that you have these long-end real rates still elevated I have people ask me about this and they're saying oh isn't that a negative thing the the problem is if you have real rates at these levels sure that's restrictive but the entire thing is that everyone's still issuing credit so clearly they're not restrictive enough so everyone's still putting

credit into the underlying system which is the entire point so you know I think that's that's why we're going to have a kind of an interesting continued upside for everything. And um couple other things. Let's see. See here.

Here's kind of an interesting one. Once positioning fully unwinds, the mechanical meltup runs its course. Where does the capital go next? Commodity super cycle on fiscal expansion or credit cycle turn. My view is that I'd be curious to hear kind of your thoughts um as well. My view is that right now this credit cycle that we're in is going to end one of three ways. One, recession happens where you know all this capex buildout doesn't have the cash flows that come from it and the labor market starts to unwind or something like that. That's one. Number two is long end rates blow out because of inflation and the Fed has to hike and we move into a bare market and the credit cycle has to turn and that turns into delinquencies. Or three, the main one is if crossber flows start to sell and you have, you know, that become a a large factor um similar to the tariff kind of setup of 2020 um what is it? uh 2025 where uh the you

know tariffs you know dollar sells off equity sell off at the same time one of those three scenarios which one will it be well I think that's why mapping these flows again you know this is what I started with this chart and saying how much interest rate risk versus crossber flows risk versus geopolitical risk and positioning risk exists so mapping these flows and I'll be sending this model out uh hopefully starting today or tomorrow to subscribers every single day. So you'll get this and you'll be able to say okay I know why things are happening. I know the risks around that now I can map those against kind of where we are at these technical levels.

So FarmD what would you add to that or how would you kind of expand on that from your perspective?

Yeah I mean my expectation of where the capital is going to flow is is is for sure it's going into puts just lots and lots of S&P puts. Um, I mean, I'm kind of serious, kind of not. I mean, I I think it ends very poorly. Um, we're clearly not there yet, but I'll give some bears some.

Um, I think 4424 quarter on ES Prince again. Um, I think it could be bad. What was that again? What was that?

44 4424 on ES. I think at Prince 4424 and I don't care if we go to 8,400. That's my lean. That would be massive. That would be something very nasty ending very badly. Um,

so you think we'll pick out the 2025 lows? Yeah, I think we eventually will. I think it'll eventually create a giant ass broadening formation. Um, which will ultimately rip us well over 10,000. Um, but um and and I won't change that view necessarily. Um, even if we hit 8,400 first um that would be a 50% draw down. And why is that impossible in an actual bare market? when was the last like even the even the rates 2022 like was it really a bare market? I mean like I guess kind of totally

um but I mean if if something implodes I mean if we really overdo it and it explodes um I feel that level needs to trade again. So that would be my bare opium.

So let's let's go through this view. I like this. I like this. I like talking about these extreme views. So if we have the most extreme scenario on both sides we bid up to 8,800. said

80. I said 84, but sure. 88. You know what? Let's just take it. Let's take it. Yeah. Yeah.

8,800. 8,400. We chop around a little bit. You get on a diet, and then we begin to sell off to You said 4,400.

4424. Quarter. 4424 and a quarter. All right. And then we kind of come down here, which is Let's see. It's um price range from here to here about a 50% draw down like you saying.

Yeah, it's a little dip. Yeah. So I you know I I I think that's interesting. You know, I think uh you know it would be a basically a 2000 or 2008 type of market where you'd have to have like that type of that type of move actually begin to take place. And you know, here's the thing. If you have internal delinquencies, here would here would have be how I think about this. The way that this would happen uh is if you basically have this meltup that we're talking about right now, you pull everyone in, you get these equity valuations higher and everyone surrounded around this mag 7 capex even more capex disappoints all the debt that they start taking out.

Some of it starts going delinquent, especially in the high yield place. At the same time, you have some layoffs and delinquencies in the underlying economy that begin to kind of shift all these flows. If that overlaps with some shifts in Trump, you know, beginning to shift global trade, whether it's relative to China or some other type of dynamic and that causes crossber flows to sell if those overlap at the same time and then maybe you get some inflation in there or something like that.

Totally possible. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, it's definitely the worst case scenario. It's a real bare market which like we have not had um in quite some time. So, and you know, of course, it's 50% if we go to 8,400. I mean, if we top out at 7469 like we're supposed to um then it's not quite as big um of a pullback, but uh the bottom line is it doesn't matter what anybody thinks. I I also said in 2024 of like July I my my expectation was that we would start a bare market in 25 and it would ultimately bottom uh at 442 24 quarter. Um we came close to that 4,800s but it also wasn't a bare market. Um and so we sort of stayed that up. It could have been um it could have been and I believe that equities down could have caused a recession in itself um if they had stayed down given there's so much money in the upper class that use their equities to live off of and and the return that they get.

Um and that was saved off um and now we've just sort of continued to push things out just a little bit further. But the bottom line is like it doesn't matter. I rarely make any kind of predictions or longer term uh predictions like that. Um that's exactly right. Farm orders pizza down there at the bottom and we go 10,000 plus. Uh one somebody asked like you know how do you manage you know being offsides if you've got a macro edge in a given situation. Um that's all I don't

I don't go off sides. If I'm offsides I'm out. Um at least quickly. I like to be wrong quickly. And part of the reason for that is like let's say I want to take four ES for a swing just just for example. Um I'm not entering with four. Um, I'm likely to be entering with more than that. And I'll look for one of my very specific, very actionable trade setups and enter with more size than I intend to keep. And then I will get some off to protect that. I call it, you know, sort of protecting my stop, right? So, let's say I'm looking for 200 on ES, right? My stop is

three, okay, on my original position at my entry. you know, if we rip 12, I can take off, you know, a fourth of my position. And even if I go back and I stop out at minus three, I've lost nothing, right? And then if it stays on sides, it stays on sides. And if I so choose, if that's my view to express a swing trade, then I can just hold it, right, until stopped if I want to.

Um, you know, most of my trades are not that. Um, most of the time I'm just take I prefer to just, you know, get some sleep at night, wake up, pick off a trade. A lot of trade, a lot of days are kind of back and forth like this. You can make some good money. That's just my preference right now. But there are times where I will swing it. I will say I usually, if I'm going to swing, I usually swing short. Why? Well, guess what? I'm also long everything in my entire life, right? I'm long real estate. I'm long equities. Um, I added long exposure at the lows. So, like I'm really leveraging up um if I'm if I'm looking for swing longs when I can just go to sleep and I can just take a day trade long all the same. So, I will say that I tend and I certainly get a wrap for being a perma bear, but I also embrace it. I do love shorting it because I like volatility. I like ranges. I don't really love this. I

mean, what are we trading? A 20 handle range today. Um, if you're a day trader, you don't love that. It was easy trading. Um, but you don't necessarily love that. So, that's one of the biggest reasons I do like downside um trading is because the volatility, the ranges are bigger. It's a lot easier for me to get a position with size in with an extremely tight risk and then balloon runners for, you know, on on NQ. I took a thousand handle runner uh this year, which is the first time I've I've done that because I usually trade ES. Um

but that's a nice runner, right? On extremely tight risk on on ENQ. So that's how I personally operate. Um so that that's where a lot of the members will benefit because capital flows will enter. He's got a view. He's got an expression. He's saying I'm going to get long here. he understands there might be draw down and that's his trading style and that's his risk approach and risk management and that's fine. He's got a riskreward mapped out for everybody. Um and I will say that I guarantee a number of my members have outperformed him just by getting it in at a little tighter entry. Um and then the question is do they paperhanded or do they hold it as long? You know that that's a different question, right? But um in terms of precision, the opportunities to execute that bias are there almost on a daily basis. If you're in a rampant uptrend, every single weekly plan I've had, I don't think I'm going to continue this

trend this week, by the way, but every single weekly plan I've had since the lows has given low of week um as one of the the setups because all you need to do in an uptrend, guess what? You don't need to talk about upside. You just need to talk about downside. Why that seems, oh, that's so bearish. You're so bearish, farmer. Why are you talking about downside? Well, guess what? If downside doesn't materialize, you stay long. Like it's it's very very easy. So for last week it was we had a um RTH gap. Okay. So we had a huge gap between the preceding Thursday's high, right?

And then Friday's low. And so that gap was 88 87 something like that. And the level that I was using was 78 to 81. I said sellers must get through 78 to 81. offer that from below and find a way to get to Thursday's low or it's pressing the buy button all week. And that's what we got happened later in the week. It held 78 to 81. Uh exactly that was low of week. Here we go. The the week prior to that was the same thing. So if you're looking to to get long or stay long, there is going to be a setup with extremely tight risk. Uh to express that view.

Yeah, I like it. I think one of the things that's kind of misunderstood or not appreciated as much is just this idea of getting on sides, right? Because when I have a view, I'm always thinking about, you know, that's where you can really have if you take a view and you know how to just get on sides, right? And if you're saying, I'm just going to bat singles here. Get on sides. Oh, get stopped out of break even. Get on sides, get stopped out, right? You you're just trying to get on sides. And then once you get on sides and you get to hold a winner, then you can say, "Okay, now I'm going to have this for a larger macro view or whatever it might be, right?"

And I think that's that execution is so underappreciated because by definition, if you are trying to just get on sides and you're trying to trade around and get a trade on sides and take that tighter risk, you're going to have a lower hit ratio if you're not actively managing it right. And so my entire kind of play of, you know, if I'm trying to get on size for a larger view is exactly kind of like what you're saying, which is how how do I find these levels that I can just lean against a little bit, try to get a trade on size so I can hold it for this, you know, bigger picture view, right?

Yep. That's exactly right. Everybody's got their own way to manage risk. Um mine, I I'd like to sleep at night. I like to keep tight risk. I like to have good stops and tight stops. look for very specific trade setups. And that's exactly right. Whatever your view is, once you're on sides, you have choices

and you have options. When you're offsides, sometimes you don't have choices, you don't have options, right? That's when participants make mistakes.

That's what I'm looking to take advantage of um on a day trade basis is participants that get offsides and I like to punish them. Um but once you are on sides, you have all the flexibility in the world to do whatever the hell you want. you can paperhand it uh for 20 handles um and go to sleep that night and that's fine if that's what you want to do. Um or if your view is to to hold for 8,400, you're on sides. Who cares? If you give if you give away unrealized profit, that's not an account draw down,

right? Right. I mean, if you give away unrealized gains, that's not an account draw down. Um it's painful sometimes, but if that's your choice, you have the opportunity to do that by not eating a whole bunch of losses. I actually entered NQ three times today,

right? Um I entered here. I took some profit off here at this this the midpoint of the the fiveminute uh range at the open.

Um I took another one here. Peeled some off up here into 380s where we saw a seller and and so so I'm I'm entering. I'm taking profit. I'm stopping out. I'm entering. I'm taking profit. I'm stopping out. I entered in here, took some profit, and I haven't stopped yet. Now, I took a little bit more this time because like it'd be nice to not have my wife yell at me like, "You didn't make [ __ ] today." Um, but um but yeah, you know, I still hold and like I'll hold until it's invalidated. That low is my invalidation. Now that I said that, we're taking out this low. Just know. I mean, Ken Griffin, he's an avid follower um of both of us. And now that he heard me say that, he knows where my stop is.

The most obvious place on the planet. He's probably going to come for it. Um, but my lean has been that this is an Emperor Palpatine or Kaiser So situation, whatever you prefer. Um, NQ figning a little bit of weakness here. The way that, uh, SMH looks to me. Um, it looks like it just doesn't want to go lower just yet. Um, so I, you know, I'm going to take some profit up here. I'm going to take some profit up here. And if I want to balloon a runner to new highs, I can do that. So I'm on sides and I don't care what happens to the rest. Stop me out. Come get me. I don't care.

Well, you know, uh, Kenneth, uh, Griffin texted me the other day and he says, you know, nothing makes me happier to have FarmD's wife yell at him. And I was like yeah

yeah, makes sense. Makes sense. Yeah. I mean, the guy I mean, he he's in the Discord, of course. Um, I've threatened to kick him out a number of times. Um, but I'm just too nice of a guy. But he he does like to take my stops once in a while if I kind of say him live. So, I apologize if we come back down. Um, but I mean it. Come get me. I don't care. Um, I've made I've made enough money for the day to satisfy the wife, something I otherwise can't do. Um, and uh, you know, if he takes my stop, that's okay.

Totally. I love it. I love it. All right, everyone, real fast. If you come to the Twitter page for Farm D, you can go to his Discord right here. go to his discord right here, his website right here, and then also, you know, you can become a subscriber right here. Those are the three places, right? The Discord. Are you still doing it on the Substack as well?

Yeah, so Substack, you get the uh weekly plans and the daily plans plus the starter kit. Um, and then uh the uh on X is just the weekly plans. Um, and I did my year- ahead plan on there as well. Occasional videos uh for the week. Uh, and then the Discord is like everything plus an an introductory course of like, you know, some of the trades we take, some of the basic setups, get you up to speed. Um, I do have like if you're really into learning it all for yourself, I do have a course that just teaches everything that I know, how I read price, how I see a lot of these things. Um, that's, you know, that's not for everybody, but if you're really interested in becoming more active um, in your trading, and there's a huge discount for Discord members, so like don't buy the course without being in the Discord. It's stupid. There's additional rooms within the Discord where we discuss things and take them a

lot further. Um there's like a 30% discount right now for Discord members if you if you buy the course. So like why would you um buy the course and not do Discord when it's like three months worth of Discord. So um anyways, I thought it please don't buy the course if you're not in the Discord. It's dumb.

I love it. I love it. All right. Well, everyone, I would encourage you follow at the very least follow FarmD on Twitter and everything that he's doing. And uh you're also doing like a session for Ninja Trader like every week, right? Or is that

Yeah, so I do I do pretty much every Sunday night um with a group of co-hosts um right at the 600 p.m. Eastern Open. You were on there uh this week for a few minutes anyways. Um we do that every week. And then I'm usually on uh Mondays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays uh for a pre-market segment around 8:40, 8:45 a.m. I wasn't on today, but I'll I'll be on Wednesday and Thursday. Um, again, just kind of talking about what the setups look like for that day. Uh, which side is in control. Um, and you know, how that could change and generally the areas that I'm looking to execute to express my views for the day.

I love it, Money. All right. Well, brother, thank you very much for joining. Everyone else, thank you very much for joining the live streaming today. Um, again, everything that we covered, I'll uh have it on the substack as well. I'll have all of FarmD's links and also all the charts that we covered and everything like that. So, if you want all that, go to capitalflowsarchearch.com as well. Go to farmd and all of the different ideas that he's covering. Again, everything's laid out here. All the educational primers are on this main page. You can go there. You can also go to all of uh Farm's educational videos on uh the course that he has and everything like that. I can't recommend him highly enough. I think in terms of trading ES, he's um I just think the the top Discord and Substack out there if you're just trying to spend a ton of time intraday trading and really mastering that. So, I love everything that you're doing, man.

We'll have to You're always welcome on here, man. I'm doing these streams every single day at 8:30. You're always You can always join anytime. It's a open invite.

Appreciate you. We'll do live soon, too. All right. Love it. Love it. All right, guys. We'll catch you guys later.

Take care.

Questions about this episode

What is "Liquidity Is Expanding And Panic Buying Has Begun" about?

In this episode of "Liquidity Is Expanding And Panic Buying Has Begun," hosts dive into the current market dynamics leading up to the FOMC meeting, featuring insights from special guest Farm D. They discuss the phenomenon of panic buying, the impact of liquidity expansion, and the psychological conditioning of investors in response to market fluctuations. Listeners will gain valuable…

What is mentioned in this Capital Flows episode?

42 people, works and ideas are mentioned, including Farm D, Capital Flows, FOMC, S&P 500, SMH, Geopolitical Risk Premium. Each one on this page links to its own page with every episode that mentions it.

How long is "Liquidity Is Expanding And Panic Buying Has Begun"?

The episode runs 1 h 19 min; the transcript is about 14,342 words in 123 timestamped sections.

More from Capital Flows

About this transcript: the episode's spoken words as captioned on YouTube, split into timestamped sections. Reclip.Me locates every person, work and idea in the text, keeps the time it is first named, and quotes the words around it verbatim. Last updated April 29, 2026.