Grading, Breakers, and the billion-dollar collector economy

What this episode is about

The discussion explores the enduring trend of card grading in the collector economy, comparing the unpredictability of buying raw cards to purchasing used cars. Highlights include Logan Paul's auction of a rare Pokémon card and the potential for high-value sales surrounding events like the World Cup, showcasing the evolving dynamics of collector markets.

Key takeaways

• Grading cards is the new gold standard—raw cards are the Wild West of card collecting!
• Logan Paul's auctioning ultra-rare cards; if that's not a sign of mainstream fandom, what is?
• Raw cards can be like used cars—good luck knowing what you're really getting!
• In 2026, institutional money craves security; grading cards will remain a lucrative trend.
• The weak draft class could be a hidden gem—more room for unexpected card market excitement!

Who speaks in this episode?

• Ryan Alfred (Host) · 12 min speaking
• Brian Luton (Guest) · 8 min speaking

What is discussed, and when

1. 0:00 – 5:00: Collector Nation, Collector Station, Cowboy Stadium, Pikachu Illustrator
2. 15:00 – 20:00: Cowboy Stadium, Pikachu Illustrator

Notable quotes from "Grading, Breakers, and the billion-dollar collector economy"

• In the bottle. Logan Paul, he's auctioning his ultra rare Pokémon card, the Pikachu Illustrator. And you know Pokemon, but you're not really a Pokémon person.

  about Pikachu Illustrator · at 0:19

• Nation here on the Collector Nation podcast network in the lovely, beautiful Collector Station in Greenville, South Carolina. Always got Brian Luton, my buddy, my partner, Mikeab up in Chicago.

  about Collector Station · at 1:04

Who and what is mentioned in this episode?

Companies & orgs

• Collector Nation — Company · 2 mentions · first at 0:43
  Welcome to the Collector Nation podcast on the Radcast Network. From Chasing Grails to Callin Bluffs, we're going inside the hobby.
• Beckett — Company · 1 mention

Products & tech

• Pikachu Illustrator — Product · 2 mentions · first at 0:23

Places & events

• Cowboy Stadium — Place · 2 mentions · first at 0:31
  No. Tool. Here's the thing. I ordered a bunch of singles from all the Japanese players because at Cowboy Stadium, Japan plays there twice in the World Cup. I'm going to put my…
• Collector Station — Place · 2 mentions · first at 1:10

Full transcript with timestamps

0:00 What's a trend in 2026 that either continues, starts, or dies? I think the grading thing is going to continue. And buying raw cards is kind of the equivalent of Carvana. Man, I hope this thing shows up good. But used cars are messy. Raw cards are kind of messy, too. So, I think grading that trend. I don't see that genie going back in the bottle. Logan Paul, he's auctioning his ultra rare Pokémon card, the Pikachu Illustrator. And you know Pokemon, but you're not really a Pokémon person.

0:27 No. Tool. Here's the thing. I ordered a bunch of singles from all the Japanese players because at Cowboy Stadium, Japan plays there twice in the World Cup. I'm going to put my Otani up there for like stupid money and see if someone buys it cuz those guys have money when you travel for the World Cup. Welcome to the Collector Nation podcast on the Radcast Network. From Chasing Grails to Callin Bluffs, we're going inside the hobby. Are you ready to collect? Let's get at it. Here's your host, Ryan Alfred. What's up, guys? Welcome to Collector Nation here on the Collector Nation podcast network in the lovely, beautiful Collector Station in Greenville, South Carolina. Always got Brian Luton, my buddy, my partner, Mikeab up in Chicago.

1:18 He is at the I don't know, the Lux home lounge. Lex King, the kingdom of Lux. That sounds right. Is that good, Brian? Kingdom of Lex.

1:28 Yeah. Yeah, that's I wish. But I I'll go for it. Manifestation. Look, this is what you need to know about a high-powered CEO. The dude's not feeling well. Running a fever yesterday. Probably still got a little bit one. And the dude is rocking it, making decisions, cashing checks and snapping necks daily.

1:49 You can't, you know, like you can't stop, man. Like, it just doesn't stop. So, you do it all day. I do it all day. And it's like a sick day doesn't happen. It just doesn't happen. Which

2:00 which that's what I signed up for. That's what you signed up for. 100%. We're blessed to be able to do it. Oh man. I would I thought about going to Jacksonville, but just not in the cards right now. Too much. I'm like on the finish line here with Collector Station. I gotta stay focused. I need my Sunday afternoons for I'll have the games on in here. We got four. We got a 130 inch projector screen. And we got multiple TVs. All the boys and I will be in here watching the game. Yeah, I'll be yelling. I won't even know who to yell at. It's a weird It's a weird thing.

2:30 This is probably the the strangest game, you know, where I am in my fandom as an adult. Like equally torn uh between this one.

2:43 I mean, it's like picking your favorite son. Exactly. You can't do that. But all that said, it's going to be great playoffs. what's happening in the hobby? I mean, a lot happening in football. Lots happening. I mean, you've got obviously the year's turning over. Um, it's sort of the land of fanatics and tops coming, you know, like it's it's been coming, but I think this is the year where it starts to really turn, right?

3:09 Yeah. Winter's coming. Winter. Yeah. Oh, god. But I mean, like, it's I just want to get it over with.

3:19 I know. just move on. Like, let's do this thing. And um unfortunately, the the draft class is pretty weak. Um but, you know, I I'm not crying for those guys at all. So, yeah. I mean, I I think the hobby like interesting like what do you think what's a trend in 2026 that either continues, starts, or dies?

3:44 Uh I think the grading thing is going to continue. I I just think here and here's why. A couple reasons. I think it's become mainstream finally for good, bad. I have no opinion on like whether that's good, bad, or different. And with all of this sort of new money, call it institutional money, call whatever you want. They want to know what they're buying. And buying raw cards is kind of the equivalent of Carvana. Man, I hope this thing shows up good.

4:20 You know what I'm saying? Used cars showing up. Uh, and look, I owned a dealer. I started Carvana before Carvana. It wasn't called Carvana. And it, uh, operationally just blew up. Uh, it was marketed really well and operationally a nightmare. Um, but used cars are messy. Raw cars are kind of messy, too. You know, what exactly am I holding here? and not everything is as it seems. So I think I don't know the new people all that I just think grading that trend I don't I don't see that genie going back in the bottle.

4:56 No, I think I I don't either. I mean it the time it goes back in the bottle is when they they're charging whatever and there's just not that big of a difference between raw cards and graded cards. And and

5:10 if there's always going to be that like the 10 is worth X. Yeah. 5x, 10x, sometimes more depending on what it is,

5:18 then it it would do that. But I also I think it gives opportunity for the raw card market because um you know like my son who he pulled a like Stafford kaboom, right? Like he's like if I send it out, it gets graded. It's three months, four months later, it's the end. Like that's when football cards are terrible. So he went to a show and and sold it. So, I think it's it helps the the the velocity of the raw card market, too.

5:42 Yeah, I agree. And I And by the way, Ryan Offer is not a hater of raw cards. I'm staring at about 10,000 of them. Uh or a lot of them stacked on cases and in cases. Uh but, you know, if you are trying to sort of dabble in uh long-term investing, I think if you put it in the safe, you probably kind of want to know what you got. Um, not that RAW won't still be worth money, too. I just think there's some some amount of certainty of knowing exactly what you have in hand cuz I do think it's a little if you don't know what you're doing and you're holding a card that looks nice and for all intents and purposes, you would think and there I think there's a lot of misconception out there, myself included, 18 months ago, I'd look at a card and go, "Oh, that's a 10."

6:31 And 10 to me. Yeah, exactly. They all look like tens to me, you know? Uh, that's what I say about my ex-girlfriends. At some point, they all look like tens, but you know, but now, well, as I get them under the microscope, it's actually a bunch of sixes. You know what I'm saying, Brian? I mean, it's like,

6:52 uh, but but all truth, you get you really do what like Raiders do and you start looking at them, you know, you think you're holding a really nice card and then it is a six. That's the big difference between a six and a nine. A

7:07 little bit. That's our buddy Chris who married a girl he met at the bar, you know, like

7:14 there's a big If we're talking about that, there's a big difference. I know. But cards do

7:20 they have scuff or something you don't see unless you get it like okay under a white light and like it's not you know anyway I do think grading uh will continue. I I don't think PSA is in any Maybe if the government does the antitrust comes through. I don't know if that's actually going to go anywhere. I think they got bigger fish to fry. Um,

7:38 you know what this like this is like that game like Mary kill and kiss Mary kill.

7:46 Kiss Mary kiss Mary hug hug Mary kill. Yeah, exactly. You're saying that uh that it you're saying the grading would be the first one. Mary.

8:00 Yes, that's correct. I think uh Mary will uh continue. I don't I don't think I will be call me surprised if if when we're doing this show next time next year and we go grading was down 37% on the year. Uh no,

8:16 impossible. Impossible. That's a sort of a no-brainer. Um what's gonna happen with PSA and how many more companies are going to buy? I I don't know. And we'll see. But I

8:28 hope they're buying. Yeah, they I'll sell it to them. Exactly. Yeah. You know, 500 mil. Yeah, you'll take that.

8:36 Yeah. I mean, yeah, that'd be nice. Wait till I get some shares. But yes. Yeah.

8:42 Uh the uh so I think that's going to continue. I'll say this. I don't believe in manifestation, but I'm going to say it. technology will prevail in 2026 like as in gold,

8:56 you know, we need more tech and solutions, right, Brian? Yeah. Yeah. And uh it's tech and then the other thing for me is I think we got to be, you know, I think there's going to be some M&A deals. I mean, obviously PSA and Becket, but I really think this industry is at a point where a lot of people are peeking over the fence. a lot of these PE firms, a lot of these other companies that that can derive business from a collector. Um I think this year there's going to be some um movement in in um M&A.

9:28 Couple numbers that that you can't ignore. 381 million spent online in December.

9:35 Online is the important part. Online not we we we had we talked about this yesterday for everybody listening. online. So, 381 million online in December. And we all know from trade nights and everything else, that's that's probably like uh the equivalent of like 10 high-end card trade nights or something. Uh depending on where you're at. But no, I mean there's probably a billion dollars every month. If you if you really got down to the how what's happening at some of these things, you think

10:06 more more than a billion. You think about taking all the card shops. Yeah. all that money and saying this is the revenue for this month and then you go on Facebook and you go on Instagram and you go dude this market like it's massive and like this is the quantifiable one but it's not even close I would say that there's probably 1.5 billion a month a quarter going in easy easy

10:31 Heritage Auctions reported 2.15 billion in sports collectible sales for 2025 that's for the whole I the whole collectible space,

10:42 right? You could they they scrape it and they find, you know, and I think that's under, you know, like it's from the same thing. I think you could probably put a five or 10x multiplier on it, right?

10:53 Yeah. I mean, all because there's what industry is still is dominated by sort of cash in hand at all these shows like very few.

11:05 Very five billion on eBay. Yeah. What that, right? Five billion. That's what I heard.

11:12 That's just think about that for a second. Like that's a an economy like of a me of a medium-sized country.

11:23 I think the GDP of Costa Rica was like less than the GDP of Chicago. Like it was like 9 billion or something.

11:31 Yeah. Like I don't know. It's nuts. Anyway, booming business that I think we're it's uh scratching the surface of big things to come. As long as Topps doesn't screw it up. The um I'm kidding. They won't. They're going to make it great. I don't Somehow they've changed the market from, you know, it used to be what 50 60 for a mega box, 25 30 for a blaster. They've already moved the market. Those those uh Tops Chrome basketball megas are 85 and the Blasters are 50. Uh hey, congratulations.

12:08 You know what? We we pulled some good stuff out of the Tops Chrome. Yeah. And a question for you. If you had a choice of where you put the hits in, the case hits, does it go into the Breaker the Breaker um hobby? Does it go into the retail? What would you what would you do?

12:29 You need to tell me who I'm who I'm am I acting as mayhem uh uh CEO president of Pops or am I acting as a consumer?

12:39 You are acting as a business decision. Hey 70 I'm you got to help. You got to feed both.

12:47 But I'm probably 6040 7030 into the breakers probably because that's where all the content gets generated and the buzz. So it sort of feeds the whole thing and maybe it's I would like to think it doesn't have to be that much and and hope for 6040 or 554 45. But I at least today and again I don't I'd have to really look at some data to know if that's trending up or down. It seems like it's pretty damn popular and only growing the breaking thing. And I'm in it myself. It's been slower the last three months because we get it stored off the ground.

13:21 It's it assuming that looks and he's got more data than me that shows like if that's a trend that's still got headroom. Uh so there's data points that I'd want but assuming that you're going to lean towards the breakers because that's where content really flows from brand marketing.

13:40 I selfishly I want it to be um to be other way around. Yeah. The other way. Exactly. I That's why I asked you which whose seat am I sitting in? I would have said the same thing as as Ryan consumer and even as Ryan store owner. I'd kind of want it to be the other way.

13:56 And even fanatics, I'd be like or I'd be like listen like there's you have a pond that you're fishing in that is like.5% of the people will buy brakes and 95 99.5% of the people out here, you could get them back in the hobby by one hit.

14:14 The final say here, Optic and Prison football hitting the shelves the next week or two. I've uh already placed my uh my orders with my um non-distributor distributors. Uh

14:28 so I got um I got my tops now from the World Series. Yeah. Being delivered this week.

14:36 I mean they they've been tops now. It stops then officially. And they're like and they're like uh about a month ago they're like, "Hey, you can cancel. We're running behind." I'm like, "No, [ __ ] that. I've been it. I'm in it, man. I need those cards."

14:56 Tops was 25. Tops releasing today the newest edition of Topps was. And then Logan Paul, he's auctioning his I feel like he's auctioning something every week, so it's hard to know what's news with him. Uh his ultra rare Pokemon card, the Pikachu Illustrator. You I know you know you you know Lux does Pokemon and you know Pokemon, but I don't you're not really a Pokemon person. It's

15:31 not your thing. No, I'm too old. Yeah, you are too old. Well, I I like the art. I appreciate the artwork,

15:40 you know? I like I like looking at them. I just don't know enough about them. And then they have all these different languages. And I mean, but here's the thing. We ordered a bunch of Japanese Pokemon. And I ordered a bunch of uh singles from like all the Japanese players because at Cowboy Stadium, Japan plays there twice in the World Cup. So, I'm gonna put my Otani up there for like stupid money and see if someone buys it because those guys have money when you travel for the World Cup.

16:09 All right, Brian, as we close out, I mean, I think we're going to come back next week, we'll have our return of the winners and losers on LEX scans with New Year's data and everything. Who's hot, who's not, it probably be dictated by the playoffs. So, what do we think? It'd be interesting to watch the data and the scans as the playoffs could move along of what that quarterback that end of the winning team's cards end up doing. Like what's the true Super Bowl winning impact for trading cards?

16:43 I think I think it depends who it is, right? Like if it's like Trevor Lawrence or Caleb, I think you you can like 2x those or 3x those things. If it's Josh Allen, he's already kind of high. I would say, you know, maybe one and a halfx. What do you think?

16:58 I think that sounds about right. I think but you could also make the argument that Josh Allen's teetering on like super like Mahomes territory of superstardom and he is a superstar, but you know what I mean? Like, and if that's the case, then it's 2x city for him, too. I I think on I think on paper I would agree with you, but then I kind of go down this Mahomes territory. Not because Josh winning one Super Bowl is the same thing, but it's kind of getting him in that, you know, stratosphere a little bit. Uh, and then think about what Stafford two time Super Bowl champion if he won.

17:36 Uh, what then? That's going to go up. Well, Bo Knicks, Drake May double double at least.

17:45 May I mean May's car is already high right now. Bo Nick's are probably less because he hadn't quite had the stat line that M had. I think he might triple, you know, just because his cards are probably lower than market average for, you know, high high playoff team.

18:02 Yeah. And then what about Bradford, right? Is it Bradford? Am I saying that? No.

18:10 Who's the Seattle's quarterback? Oh, that's uh that's uh the guy from USC. Uh why do I keep calling him Bradford?

18:17 That's like Sam. You think it's Sam Bradford? It's Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Brad. See that? I'm old. Like that's my that's how far back I'm thinking. You know, I'm wanting Sam Bradford to still be playing. He played for the Rams, didn't he?

18:31 Yeah. I think honestly he could 5X. Yeah. Um Yeah, Darnold. I've I've been looking at Darnold's and because they went down a little bit even though he the team's been winning. He might be a good buy right now. Yeah,

18:50 that Seattle's defense I mean that Seattle might win just because of their defense.

18:53 True. So, it will be interesting to see. We'll do we'll document that as the playoffs come up. Watching the s the the playoff team QBs. That might be a data point that the team could pull as well as we go week to week like how how each playoff victory is impacting like you know the prism silver rookie of each one.

19:14 Yeah, let's do it. And I'll I can kind of do that myself too. I I can actually pull up the old Lux app and I got most of these guys in the old digital collection, so I have to watch that. Cool. Any final words, Brian? Any other calls to action?

19:30 Bear down. Bear down. That's it. Say a prayer for me on Sunday. It's going to be fun and bad at the same time, but uh you know, we'll see what happens. One o'clock. Best game of the weekend potentially. We'll see what happens. We appreciate everybody for listening. Collectibles.show. show soon to be the collectoration.com. Let you know with that switch over. Go check out Lux in the app store. Ludex best trading card, collection keeper, scanner, and of course scanning those cards to get them up to eBay so you know and can sell them when and how you want to. Brian, love you, brother. We'll see you next time.

20:09 Kid on Electric Nation. Thanks for tuning in to the show. Don't forget to follow us on your favorite podcast platform and don't miss the full video version on YouTube. You can find us at collectornation.com or follow Ryan on Instagram at ryanalfred. Now get out there and collect yours.

Questions about this episode

Who speaks in "Grading, Breakers, and the billion-dollar collector economy"?

Ryan Alfred (Host), Brian Luton (Guest).

What is "Grading, Breakers, and the billion-dollar collector economy" about?

The discussion explores the enduring trend of card grading in the collector economy, comparing the unpredictability of buying raw cards to purchasing used cars. Highlights include Logan Paul's auction of a rare Pokémon card and the potential for high-value sales surrounding events like the World Cup, showcasing the evolving dynamics of collector markets.

What is mentioned in this Collector Nation episode?

5 people, works and ideas are mentioned, including Pikachu Illustrator, Cowboy Stadium, Collector Nation, Collector Station, Beckett. Each one on this page links to its own page with every episode that mentions it.

How long is "Grading, Breakers, and the billion-dollar collector economy"?

The episode runs 21 min; the transcript is about 3,560 words in 66 timestamped sections.

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