Transcript

🔴 BREAKING NEWS!! Air coming out of stock market bubble. The coming crash will likely be worse

From GLOBAL NEWS PODCAST · Episode page · Watch on YouTube

· 60 min · 10,826 words · 62 timestamped sections

This is the full, timestamped transcript of "🔴 BREAKING NEWS!! Air coming out of stock market bubble. The coming crash will likely be worse", an episode of GLOBAL NEWS PODCAST published September 16, 2020 (60 min, about 10,826 words). It mentions 8 people, works and ideas, including Gold, Federal Reserve, Dave Portnoy, Tesla, Inc., Bitcoin.

What this episode is about

The stock market is experiencing significant declines, with the Dow Jones dropping 632 points and the Nasdaq facing a correction of over 10% in just three days. This trend aligns with historical patterns indicating that September is typically a weak month for stocks, raising concerns about a potentially severe market downturn ahead.

Key takeaways

  • The Nasdaq's 10% correction in three days: a reminder that even tech titans can trip over their own hype.
  • Beware crowded lifeboats—when the ship sinks, it’s the last on that feel the chill of reality.
  • Tesla's market cap absurdity: where speculation dances on the edge of 'too big to fail' and 'too ridiculous to justify.'
  • In September’s historical weakness, even the bulls might start hiding under the bears’ blanket—get cozy.
  • Investing feels like betting on a horse with a broken leg; don’t confuse hope with strategy, especially with Tesla.

Who speaks in this episode?

What is discussed, and when

  1. – 5:00: Tesla, Inc.
  2. – 15:00: Federal Reserve, Slack Technologies
  3. – 20:00: Dave Portnoy
  4. – 25:00: Bitcoin, Winklevoss Twins
  5. – 30:00: Bitcoin, Gold
  6. – 35:00: Bitcoin, Gold, Dave Portnoy, Federal Reserve
  7. – 45:00: Federal Reserve
  8. – 50:00: Federal Reserve
  9. – 55:00: Bitcoin, Robert T. Kiyosaki
  10. – 59:32: Bitcoin, Gold

Notable quotes from "🔴 BREAKING NEWS!! Air coming out of stock market bubble. The coming crash will likely be worse"

  • Eight or ten other major automobile companies combined and i mentioned that if tesla were to double again it would be worth more than all of the other automobile companies in the world combined which i said is clearly.
    about Tesla, Inc. · at
  • That's another speculation like look what happened to slack technologies they came out with earnings although not really earnings that's not the correct word losses but they came out with that number.
    about Slack Technologies · at
  • Bit dave portnoy you know on my twitter account because he has really become the poster boy for the day traders and leading his merry men on robin hood with the idea that stocks you know only go.
    about Dave Portnoy · at
  • So he got out of it before they can dump it even more and in fact you know bitcoin is trading as i'm talking it's just below 10 000. it's been trading above and below it.
    about Bitcoin · at
  • Buy gold and silver right you know i mentioned the winklevoss you know they wrote an excellent piece that came out on twitter about you know what's wrong with the fiat monetary system why the dollar is going to crash.
    about Winklevoss Twins · at
  • You're there get out you need to be mitigating the risk of inflation the fed is promising more inflation and that's one promise they're going to keep they will deliver on that promise in spades and so you want to not own.
    about Federal Reserve · at
  • I would much rather bet that we go higher then lower because i think the risks for those people who want to bet gold's going lower and so they don't buy it they're going to lose a lot more if it goes higher without them.
    about Gold · at
  • You know having dinner with him he's got some great stories from his old days but i did his podcast so if you haven't listened to the interview check it out he also got into the media because he's he also has bought some bitcoin in along.
    about Robert T. Kiyosaki · at

Who and what is mentioned in this episode?

People

  • Dave Portnoy — Person · Referenced retail-trading figure / cautionary example · 3 mentions · first at
    Used as the episode’s poster child for inexperienced, momentum-driven day trading (often on margin) and for misunderstanding Tesla’s S&P 500 inclusion dynamics.
  • Winklevoss Twins — Person · Referenced crypto advocates / influencers · 1 mention · first at
    Presented as influential Bitcoin promoters who pressured Dave Portnoy into buying Bitcoin; also referenced as authors of a pro-Bitcoin critique of fiat money and gold.
  • Robert T. Kiyosaki — Person · Referenced podcast host / friendly peer · 2 mentions · first at
    Mentioned as a friendly acquaintance whose podcast the speaker appeared on; discussed as someone buying gold/silver and also dabbling in Bitcoin as a hedge against dollar debasement.

Companies & orgs

  • Federal Reserve — Company · Business focus · 6 mentions · first at
    Discussed as the primary force propping up the stock market and creating inflation.
  • Tesla, Inc. — Company · Case study · 1 mention · first at
    Used as an example of a speculative bubble in the stock market.
  • Slack Technologies — Company · Case study · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as an example of a company with significant losses despite revenue growth.

Products & tech

  • Gold — Product · Key argument · 4 mentions · first at
    Discussed as a safe haven asset and real money compared to fiat currencies and Bitcoin.
  • Bitcoin — Product · Key argument · 28 mentions · first at
    Critiqued as a speculative asset and compared unfavorably to gold.

Full transcript with timestamps

i hope everybody enjoyed their long labor day weekend and as i uh speculated when i recorded my podcast on friday i thought the weakness that we saw into the clothes did not bode well for today in the stock market and that inclination turned out to be correct we had another bad day in stocks if you're long the dow jones was down 632 points that's about two and a quarter percent the s p 500 a little bit worse down just over 95 points that was a drop of 2.78 but the real carnage was in the nasdaq that index down just over 4 on the day 465 points that brings its three-day decline thursday friday and now tuesday to over 10 so we have a full-blown correction in the nasdaq which wall street likes to define as a move of 10 or more we've had that in just three days you know i remember when i first got into the investment business it was t plus three meaning that trades took three days to settle so in the time that

it takes a trade to settle we've already moved into a full correction in the nasdaq in fact i mentioned on friday's podcast that i thought we could have a potential outside reversal month for the month of september and outside reversal month is where you take out the previous month's high and also take out the previous month's low and then you close below the previous month's low well if the month of september ended today we would have already completed that pattern but of course we have a lot of days left in the month of september but as i said on friday i had a pretty good feeling that we would take out the august low this week and we already took it out on tuesday we didn't take it out on friday and in fact we didn't have a full-blown reversal week last week because we didn't close below the previous week's low but today we are below the previous month's low but the month hasn't closed yet because

we still have a long month left to go in september and again as i've been stating september historically is the weakest month for stocks although i think i heard of statistics today that said during election years that maybe october is actually weaker than september well this is an election year so who knows we could have a week september and a week october the uh stocks that were leading the carnage in the nasdaq were of course the uh the stay-at-home stocks right the coveted stocks these are the tech stocks that are benefiting from the fact that so many people are stuck at home are working from home and and these are the darlings that everybody has been hiding out in remember i warned that these lifeboats were getting very crowded as everybody was abandoning the sinking ship of you know the brick and mortar companies right the real companies with real earnings a lot of people had to get

out of those the companies that were more associated with main street even though they're publicly traded on wall street but the breadth of the market was getting narrower and narrower as everybody was piling into a handful of stocks that were continuing to go up until all of a sudden the bubble pops you know one of the big stocks that was a popular with the speculative money was tesla and and it still is obviously tesla not a stay-at-home stock it's just a cult stock that kind of got lumped in with the stay-at-home stocks but it really became i think the poster boy for the craziness that was going on in fact last week i highlighted the fact uh that tesla was already so much larger in market cap then i forget how many eight or ten other major automobile companies combined and i mentioned that if tesla were to double again it would be worth more than all of the other automobile companies in the

world combined which i said is clearly impossible it can't happen and at some point the bubble was going to have to pop and there's no way to know exactly when and it may have just done that i mean tesla was down better than 20 today right the stock closed just over 330. now last week the stock was trading at over 500 in fact in the pre-market before tesla announced their at the market stock sale and i have no idea how many shares if any tesla has already sold from that 5 billion but that turned the market but if you were one of the unfortunate few who bought in the pre-market you could have bought tesla more than two hundred dollars above the current price that's about a forty percent decline in less than a week which shows you how dangerous it is uh to be investing in in in tesla although the word investment and tesla should not be used in the same sense right because anybody buying tesla is not making an investment

what they are making is a speculation now maybe they'll speculate successfully but you really can't call an investment because there are so many things that have to go white with tesla right in order to justify the current valuation in fact i think that people who have been buying tesla need more things to go right than can go right i don't think there's enough things that could possibly go right that could ever justify the current share price for tesla let alone some higher price in the future but that's the speculation people are making they're betting that a bunch of things are going to happen in the future that haven't already happened and that if these things happen well then maybe the price of tesla is actually worth what you're paying for but if you're doing that if you're investing with all these ifs right then it's not really an investment an investment should be more certain uh of you know some cash flows

or some income you would have to have some metrics that you can evaluate uh to decide yes this is a decent investment based on these fundamentals when you buy tesla you have to ignore all the fundamentals you have to toss the fundamentals aside so if you're not using any fundamentals well then you're not really making an investment you know what's much better instead of finding a stock that's priced for perfection and hope what actually happens exceeds perfection when you make an investment you try to find stocks where people think a lot of stuff is going to go wrong right where a lot of bad news is already priced into the stock and then you can buy it and you could benefit if maybe all the bad things that everybody expects to happen maybe they don't all happen maybe only some of the bad things happen or maybe none of the bad things happen right and then you make a lot of money because the stock is priced

for a bunch of bad things to happen and they may not but even if they do you bought the stock with that already discounted into the price and in the meantime if the fundamentals are good and the stock is cheap you can get paid a dividend you can collect money you could be paid on your investment while you're waiting for the situation to improve and the share price to go up see that's really what makes stocks investments is that companies pay dividends to their shareholders who are taking a risk right when you take a risk you should be paid for that risk just like if you're a landlord and you have a piece of property and you own it and you take a risk right well you rent it out and you don't let your tenants stay there for free you charge them a rent and that provides you with a return see if you just buy raw land that's more of a speculation you're just betting that maybe you'll be able to do

something with that land in the future maybe the price will go up and you can sell it a profit but you don't know that's going to happen you're just betting that that's going to happen so if you buy raw land you know you're making a speculative bet on the future value of that raw land but when you buy income producing property and you can analyze the cash flow on that property the rents that you collect relative to what it costs you to own and maintain that property and you like to return on the money you've invested and it's commensurate with the risk that you're taking well that's an investment and that's very different same thing you know when you buy a bond what you're really doing is loaning money to somebody you're making a loan they're paying you interest right the interest reflects not only the opportunity cost of the money but the fact that they may default they won't pay you back

and so if you make a bunch of loans you have to collect enough interest for the ones that pay you back to cover the times when you don't get paid back either you get paid back part of what you loaned or maybe you get paid back nothing right but you know you're getting interest on your uh loan on your investment in that loan well stocks pay dividends now of course when stocks don't pay dividends well then you're just speculating right because you're not getting any current income you're speculating that maybe the stocks will pay income in the future but in the meantime uh you're hoping or you're betting that the fundamentals of the business improve uh the earnings go up or all these different things happen but it really takes it out of the realm of an investment and puts it more into the realm of speculation but of course if a company at least has earnings maybe that's a valid speculation that

you could say that one day in the future when earnings kind of peak and they stop investing for growth they can then start to pay out those earnings and in the form of dividends but what a lot of people have been doing is they're buying stock in companies that have losses right they don't even have profits so they're not just speculating that one day they'll be able to pay dividends on their profits they're speculating that one day the losses will turn into profits and that's another speculation like look what happened to slack technologies they came out with earnings although not really earnings that's not the correct word losses but they came out with that number after the close and you know slack is you know it may be like another stay-at-home type of stock i mean it's a messaging app obviously you're going to send more messages to people when you're working from home than when you're working in

the same office and you can physically communicate but i don't think it really got caught up in a lot of the hype because if you look at the chart it wasn't a high flyer for the past couple of months but it's certainly getting clobbered today it's down about 18 after hours even though the numbers that it released were actually better than what had been expected but here's the craziness of these numbers and their revenue did jump about 50 percent quarter on quarter i think uh even though it exceeded estimates maybe investors are thinking but wait a minute why isn't it growing even faster given the fact that now we have covid uh maybe there are some people who expected the good news to be even better and so when the uh the beat wasn't uh big enough uh that might have been another catalyst but personally i think it doesn't even matter what these guys released i think the good news is being sold i

think investors speculators are looking to get out of these stocks and in fact let's just look at these numbers how ridiculous it is so they had a quarterly a loss this is a real number because i think if they back out some charges they may be broke even but if you just look at the raw numbers they lost 13 cents a share which is 74.8 million on the quarter that's a lot of money to lose in one quarter except it's a lot less than how much they lost in the same quarter a year ago where they lost 98 cents or 359.6 million dollars a messaging app how do you lose almost 360 million dollars in a quarter and if you look at their revenue their revenue which was just up this prior quarter uh ending june 31st their revenue was 215.9 million dollars i mean that's all their revenue that means a year ago they actually lost a lot more than their current revenue so imagine how much they lost relative their revenue back then

in fact this most recent quarter they're losing what 75 million dollars approximately on 215 million of revenue i mean that's a huge percentage of your revenue that you turned into a loss so look obviously nobody is investing uh who is buying slack i mean you're gambling on so many things going right in the future and they may not happen you know as i said buy stocks where a lot of people think a lot of bad things are going to happen in the future so maybe if all those bad things don't happen well the stock price could go up and in the meantime you can collect a lot of dividends but you know the problem here is the air can easily be coming out of this stock market bubble we're down 10 on the nasdaq in three days three trading days how do you know it won't be down another ten percent in the next three trading days you don't right now it could come back yeah of course the stock market could

come back i mean i'm not short the u.s stock market and there's one reason that i'm not short the u.s stock market and that's the fed right the fed has got the markets back the fed is the market's friend in fact the fed is the market's only friend the fed is the only thing the market's got going for it now of course there's a lot of people that don't realize this but that's the truth if it wasn't for the fed yeah i would be shorting the market in fact if it wasn't for the fed i wouldn't be short in the market because the market would be too low to short the market would not be anywhere near its current level but for the fed now the question is will the fed be able to prop the market up higher now as i said in my last podcast they came out one of the fed governors came out during the sell-off on friday and talked about additional quantitative easing now i didn't hear any of the fed heads

coming out today throwing another lifeline to the stock market maybe they were looking for it but the problem is the lifeline had no effect when they cast it out on on friday so you know there is a lot of risk in this market because you're just betting on the fed saving you now that has been a smart bet because it's worked in the past but as they like to say in the investment world past performance is no indication of future success and by the way markets can drop significantly before the fed actually can work its magic think back to what happened in march remember how far the markets dropped before they bottomed so the same thing could happen again now sure if you just hold on throughout the whole ride and the fed bails you out well there's no problem although there is a problem for people who are utilizing margin there are a lot of traders out there who are buying these stocks on margin because they think stocks only

go up and then when they go down and they get a margin call even if the stocks come back they may no longer own them when they do because if you don't have the money to meet your call your broker sells your stocks and i have a feeling that even if the fed does manage to resurrect the market it's not going to resurrect all the traders who died because they had a margin call they couldn't meet of course one of the only things worse than not meeting a margin call is meeting the margin call because what happens if you send more money into your account and then you get another margin call right because the margin call when you get your first margin call that's a pretty good indication that you've made a mistake right because you've already lost more money than you were intending to lose right because otherwise you wouldn't have a margin call right nobody puts on a position in their account expecting to have a margin call

right no you mean you have a certain amount of money in your account and you assume that you're going to be covered so one of the first rules of margin calls is when you get one don't meet it because then you have to send in more money and now you have unlimited losses as you keep having to send more and more money in until you finally can't meet the call because you're completely wiped out and then you end up losing a lot more money than you had intended to lose but yeah a lot of people get lulled into a false sense of security because maybe uh they've had declines uh in the past where the fed has been able to bail them out well yes it works until it doesn't you know that's why i have been uh you know teasing a little bit dave portnoy you know on my twitter account because he has really become the poster boy for the day traders and leading his merry men on robin hood with the idea that stocks you know only

go up and if they ever go down well it's a freebie right just buy it and you're guaranteed to make money and the the problem with that approach is that uh portnoy is only in the stock market because he couldn't gamble on sports because kovid kind of put a dent in sports betting and so in march april he decided to move to a different casino uh called the stock market and of course all he saw was a hot table right he he wasn't there for the big collapse but he was there for the rebound uh so he's at this table and everybody's throwing numbers and he thinks that you can't lose right he hasn't seen a seven well now somebody just threw one and now they're throwing craps and you know he still thinks it's the same game and is it possible again that he will be bailed out i mean i was watching him today he bought more into the clothes we had a very very weak close i don't think this guy's got any stops

i don't think he sees any reason for he probably thinks stops are for sissies and and so he doesn't have one uh and there's a lot of people that are following his advice and i think he's on margin from what i can tell also you know another thing that dave portnoy didn't really understand about tesla is he mentioned this on twitter he said that he didn't understand why getting snubbed by the s p why not being included in the s p 500 why that was bad for tesla of course i went into exactly why it was bad on my podcast on friday it would have been great if he would have listened to it i suggested that but i explained on that podcast that the reason was such a problem is because so many people had already bought tesla on the anticipation that it would go into the s p and once it gets into the s p now you have all these index funds that are forced to buy it from the people who front ran the inclusion so

it was a buy the rumor sell the fact only there was no fact there was just a rumor and now they have to sell when it turns out that there is no fact and the rumor was false but again this is what happens when people who are not very experienced in trading start trading and they think they're a genius because they're making money and they don't realize that they're making money because of the fed you know there is an old saying in a bull market that you don't want to confuse brains with a bull market well that's even more important in a bubble don't confuse brains with a bubble i mean the smartest move i saw portnoy make was how quickly he he cut his losses on bitcoin and some other cryptos i think he bought chain link he got in near the top or you know kind of close it went a little higher and then it went against him quickly and he got out and i congratulated him on twitter for that in fact he really

got pushed into it by the winklevi twins uh these guys made a visit to his house you know he even visited donald trump recently he went to the white house and got to interview donald trump again which is more of these classic warning signs when the number one uh day trader for uh the retail crowd is uh shaking hands with the president in the oval office that's a pretty good sign uh that uh we're at top here but the winklevoss uh came over to his house and they really you know pushed him into uh bitcoin and i think you know he kind of uh indicated that he got it because he kind of saw it more as a pump and dump and he thought that after he got in that might help pump it up and he could dump it higher but what he realized was that he was getting dumped that he was helping other people dump and he and he didn't want any part of it so he got out of it before they can dump it even more and in fact you know bitcoin

is trading as i'm talking it's just below 10 000. it's been trading above and below it pretty much all weekend so we haven't made any significant uh uh uh you know carnage to the downside beyond that but if you remember when i mentioned bitcoin because bitcoin had a big drop uh last week remember bitcoin just like the nasdaq the bitcoin was up at 12 000 and here it is now below 10 000. so it's had a bigger drop than the nasdaq again for anybody who thinks bitcoin is a safe haven bitcoin is down more than the nasdaq so think about that that's a lot of risk and if you look at the recent uh trading correlations bitcoin is far more positively correlated with the nasdaq than it is to gold gold was down slightly today uh but barely and many of the gold stocks actually finished positive on the day even as bitcoin was down but you know a lot of people or again inexperienced novice people are in bitcoin and now

they think oh there's a ten thousand dollar support you know i don't know i mean i mentioned on friday that the support really was about ten thousand five hundred and it broke and i mentioned the fact that the breaking of that number and the fact that bitcoin spent so much time below 10 500 and in fact it was at 10 600 when i recorded my last podcast but the fact that it spent so much time below what i regarded as support to me meant that it was no longer support and i thought the next support line was around 10 000 and that's where we are but that is not strong support i don't look at that as being strong support at all in fact generally the more times a support area is tested the weaker it gets right every time you go down to support it weakens just like resistance the more you bang up against resistance the weaker that resistance gets remember that was what was happening with gold when gold kept hitting its resistance i

kept saying that we're gonna break through the top because each time we get up there the resistance gets weaker and weaker and we take out more and more of the sellers until eventually there are no sellers left well there are a lot of people who have been buying uh bitcoin at around 10 000 or just below because they think it's the support but eventually we're going to run out of people who think 10 000 is support and in fact markets rarely give you an opportunity to buy the bottom so if 10 000 was the bottom in bitcoin so many people wouldn't be getting so much of an opportunity to buy at 10 000. the reason that so many of you get to buy bitcoin at ten thousand is because it's going a lot lower than ten thousand if it wasn't gonna go a lot lower it wouldn't be so easy to buy the fact that there's so much available to sell and the fact that it's been down here for so long giving everyone and his brother an

opportunity to buy what they think is the bottom that's how you know this isn't the bottom in fact as a joke you know i i put out a poll on on twitter and if you didn't vote in the poll i mean you're one of the few i actually ended up with better than 80 000 people who voted in my twitter poll and it was because my son spencer who just recently turned 18 ended up buying some more bitcoin i mean like i think it was like 400 bucks more i mean it's not like he's putting you know a lot of money but he's buying it and you know i told him not to waste his money don't buy any bitcoin but you know he you know does he know he's 18 years old right he's making a foolish mistake which you know 18 is when you want to make your foolish mistakes get you know get them out of the way when you're young because now you have a long time to learn from your mistakes and if you make mistakes when you don't have a lot of money well then you don't

lose a lot of money so fine you want to learn a lesson you know buy some bitcoin but then i decided to tweet about it in a poll because i was like hey this is like shift versus chef uh old seasoned uh 57 year old chef who's been in a professional investment business his entire adult life better than 30 years i'm a business owner right i've seen the bull markets the bear markets the bubbles i've been burned many times in the past i've made a lot of money on good trades i've blown a lot of money on bad trade so i've got some experience and then i've got my 18 year old son who has no experience i mean he has a little bit of investment experience because he bought some gold and silver mining stocks and he's making money on those he did trade in and out of bitcoin at one point a few years ago made some money on that uh he had been out of the bitcoin market for some time but you know i mean he's only 18 just

got out of high school freshman in college how much experience can you have at that age never had a job which is unfortunate in this day and age because when i was 18 i had had many jobs you know and that was true with a lot of my friends by the time i was 18 i mean i delivered groceries i delivered pizza i worked in in a shoe store i sold cable tv subscriptions i did all kinds of stuff but you know kids today they're not out working like like they were when i was young or like my dad was young i think that's unfortunate uh that kids you know don't have jobs the way they used to but hey you know blame the government for that blame uh occupational licensing minimum wage all the other barriers to entry uh that make it harder for uh teenagers to to really get jobs but the point is hey he's an 18 year old kid never had a job you know whose advice do you want to take right because my 18 year old son says

buy bitcoin and i say don't buy bitcoin it's a bubble you know it's a pyramid scheme buy gold and silver right you know i mentioned the winklevoss you know they wrote an excellent piece that came out uh uh on twitter about you know what's wrong with the fiat monetary system why the dollar is going to crash and just about everything i agree with i mean it wasn't 100 i mean it wasn't exactly like i wrote it myself but it's good enough i mean you know it's much better than you would get uh from a a mainstream wall street firm i mean you know so they have the exact rationale correct as to why the dollar is doomed and why it's going to lose a lot of value but then they come out to trash gold and they say that you got to buy bitcoin as a way to save yourself and of course the way they trash gold is they say that there's too much of it because they say look they're going to mine gold from seawater

they're going to mine gold from space and asteroids and so the supply is going to be too high which is all a bunch of nonsense i mean i do believe that at some point in the future in the distant future they'll probably be mining uh some gold in space most if not all that's gold will likely remain in space to be used in space on space stations or spaceships or whatever uh and maybe we will find a way to get gold out of sea water but all this is way in the future it's very expensive and when we finally can do it it's only because we've run out of all the gold uh that we can easily get out of the ground that's why we're looking in this in the ocean or looking in outer space and what makes people think that the supply of gold once we start mining it in the oceans is going to grow at an even faster rate than it's been growing when we're mining it from the earth because we've been mining gold for

hundreds or thousands of years i mean that's been happening it's not like we haven't had mining and in fact in reality the amount of mining that we've had in the last decade has actually been pretty low and what's even lower than how much we've mined is what we've explored the exploration right companies have not been investing in trying to replace their reserves so i think the supply of gold is going to be very well constrained over the next decade uh and so to say that people shouldn't buy gold because there's just going to be an abundance of it is pure nonsense but where they really get it wrong is when they then argue about bitcoin and why bitcoin is is so much better than gold and why it's better money than gold and it's not even close but in any event i did the poll and my suggestion was okay you know whose advice do you want to take my advice for my 18 year old kid and of course when i did the poll i knew

exactly what the results were going to be i thought it was pretty funny because there was a lot of stories online and people were saying oh peter schiff you know the polls not turning out the way you thought the polls gonna backfire it turned out exactly the way i thought i knew that uh the bitcoin community would not be able to resist the temptation to troll my pole even though i was in fact trolling them by dangling out this bait to embarrass me and make me look bad i knew my son was going to win he actually won in a landslide he got over 81 of about 83 000 votes on my twitter so the whole bitcoin community decided that this was their opportunity to humiliate me and prove that uh bitcoin is better than gold because an 18 year old is suggesting that you buy it there's even been articles written about it which i thought was so funny that this is the reason to buy gold because uh my 18 year old son

what what about my seven-year-old son yeah i got another son he's seven i wonder how many people want to take his investment advice what about the investment advice from my from my daughter she's four yeah she's got some ideas that she wants to share i mean who wants to take her advice i mean the point was of my tweet even though i knew that my son was going to win is that yeah he shouldn't win the fact that everybody in the bitcoin community is excited to follow the advice of an inexperienced 18 year old and to ignore the advice of a far more experienced 57 year old right that is part of my point why you have a bunch of novices who don't understand how markets work how much markets can go down everybody who is buying bitcoin is speculating now you could say well peter you're buying gold right that's speculation because you're not betting on gold's not paying interest or a dividend which is true but gold is money right

you're saving your money so when you have dollars and you stick them in your mattress you don't get any interest either you got to loan the dollars out to somebody to get interest so if you're holding gold you're not speculating you're just preserving the purchasing power that is inherent in that goal there is no purchasing power inherent in bitcoin now i know a lot of people are saying well bitcoin is money no it's not at least it's not money now right it's never been used as money gold's been used as money in the past and it's been used as a store of value for thousands of years and it's held as a monetary reserve asset today by all the central banks uh bitcoin has none of those properties and it has none of that history maybe you can say bitcoin may be money in the future i don't think it ever will be but if you're betting that one day bitcoin will be money one day bitcoin will be a store of value

you're speculating on what bitcoin may become when you own gold you're not speculating on what gold might be in the future you're just betting that gold will be in the future what it's been for thousands of years in the past right things have to just stay the same gold has to just do what it's always done in order for bitcoin to work out it's got to do what it's never done and believe me there's been all sorts of uh you know a fool's gold that have come and gone over the centuries where people thought they had the next gold and they ended up uh being fools but i digressed under this whole uh bitcoin round when i was talking about dave portnoy and his brief venture into bitcoin but let's go back uh from the ridiculous to the sublime and and talk about stocks and his attitude about the stock market and the stock market always going up look if you are buying overpriced stocks right and it's it's pretty clear right

one of his favorite stocks has been tesla but he has some other uh you know tech darlings that that he likes but clearly the stock is way overpriced based on what it's earning today nobody knows what it's going to earn in the future that's pure speculation but even if it earns a tremendous amount in the future is still overpriced but what has been keeping this market going unbeknownst uh to portnoy is the federal reserve right the federal reserve's ability to create inflation to prop up asset prices to prop up the stock market and it has succeeded in doing that but can it continue to succeed in doing that now personally i think it can but i think the stock market could go down quite a bit more before it's willing to print enough extra money in order to do that and now the question is about the politics of this you know are they willing to allow the market to fall quite a bit between now and november

which would pretty much assure abide in victory or do they want to really pull out the stops and print as much as they can to try to give trump the best chance he has of reelecting which is to kick this stock market bubble can uh down the road long enough for the november election to pass now the question is do they want to do that and even if they wanted to do that can they do that because i think they would have to increase the amount of money printing so dramatically i don't think they could just hint about it or talk about it anymore this market is so expensive and so ripe for a collapse that the fed is really going to have to surprise the market by getting out in front of the expectations that already exist right everybody already knows that the fed's not raising interest rates any time in the next several years right five years 10 years we all know that right the fed's not even thinking about

thinking about thinking about raising interest rates you know if they add another thinking about what's that going to do right oh we're thinking about thinking about thinking about thinking about raising interest rates no i don't think that's going to move the markets talking about uh doing more qe in the future when they're already doing so much qe in the present that's not going to move the needle anymore right the the the addict has such a big drug habit that the only thing that's gonna work is just shock and awe on a massive uh new uh fix of drugs that's way beyond what even uh anyone in the market the most optimistic crazy bulls had expected so we need just some something really out of left field and we might get it but if we do then you got to worry about the bigger bubbles because the stock market is a bubble and this is the biggest stock market bubble we've ever had that's why i titled my

last podcast the biggest bubble ever but you know i really should have qualified it but you know when you're doing these titles you don't want to make them too long you want it short and sweet but it's really not the biggest bubble ever it's the biggest stock market bubble ever because the stock market bubble really pales in comparison to the bubbles in the bond market and the u.s dollar that's the real bubble and they're really related and i i mentioned this i think in the last podcast but the the bond market bubble is really part of the dollar bubble because bonds are in effect dollars right they're just dollars that pay some interest right and they don't pay much interest but if you own uh regular dollars think of a dollar bill as like you know like a zero coupon uh bond but it's not in perpetuity you know because you could cash it in right you could you could spend it it's you know whenever you want

but it doesn't pay anything you'd have to loan it to somebody uh to get income but it's just like it just pays no yield now when you own treasuries they're basically dollars except you have to wait until the treasury matures to actually get your dollars but if you want you can sell the treasuries prior to maturity and get maybe a little bit less than the face amount right because if you want to get out before maturity if interest rates have gone up a little bit then you're going to take a bit of a haircut and you won't get the full face value but if you hold your treasury to maturity you'll get the face amount that's denominated on the node or the bond whatever it is so they're really all dollars right so because if you own u.s treasuries you own dollars you know somebody owes you dollars and so you are a creditor who will be collecting dollars so it's all part of your faith and your confidence

in the dollar and that is where you have the biggest bubble because people are so confident in what the dollar will buy in the future that they're willing to loan their dollars to the us treasury for 30 years for about 1.4 percent interest even though the current inflation rate even the way the government measures it is higher than 1.4 percent so you're talking about a massive bubble which again it's not necessarily fueled by investors who are actually dumb enough to want to make these loans it's being fueled by central banks that don't even care how dumb these loans are because they're not investing money that they actually had to work for and it doesn't matter if the money is lost because they'll just print some more it doesn't cost them anything so you've got all these central banks that are perpetuating this bubble but then you also have traders right who are in the bond market who are

trading for appreciation because they expect overpriced bonds to get even more overpriced as more central banks print money to buy them and in fact as the stock market starts to fall the number of traders who want to make that bet increases because what's been happening traditionally is as risk assets like stocks go down people buy what they perceive to be safe haven assets like u.s treasuries the reality is u.s treasuries are also a risk asset they're just a different risk and when people figure this out when risk assets go down it's going to include u.s treasuries now the interesting thing is that today even though we were getting a big drop in the stock market the bond market was up but not a lot this was not a big update in the bond market in fact bond yields came down a bit but not nearly as they were up on uh friday so you know we didn't even give back all of the gains and yesterday again

even as stocks were getting killed bonds were getting killed too and now today stocks got killed again and bonds recovered some of what they had lost but we didn't see the flight to uh quality so maybe that trade has already played out and if so that is going to be even more problematic for the stock market because the bond market has actually acted as a buffer to help cushion the stock markets fall because as the stock market gets killed and as people then rush into the bond market as stocks are crashing and now bonds rally that actually makes stocks more attractive because now on a relative basis they look to be a better value because now interest rates are lower and that is a support for stock prices also since bonds compete with stocks as bonds get more more expensive and the yields go down well then the dividends on stocks look that much more attractive so that has acted as a break and so as people have

rushed into bonds because the stock market is crashing the stock investors look over to the rally of the bond market and that is supportive of the stock market and then they start buying back stocks but if we start to see the bond market falling at the same time the stock market is falling that's just going to add fuel to the fire burning in the stock market and it's going to result in stock investors dumping their stocks even faster because that means stocks are getting more expensive as interest rates are rising and when you look at how low interest rates are you can only imagine how much higher they could rise and that is the predicament that the fed is in because the only way that the fed could keep interest rates from rising is to print more money to buy more bonds but by doing that they simply erode confidence even faster in the dollar they're creating more inflation which destroys the value of bonds

which means lenders need to demand a higher interest rate to compensate them for the loss of purchasing power due to the increased inflation that the fed creates to try to buy those bonds and they get themselves into a self-perpetuating spiral and this is the bubble that we all have to be concerned about it's the bubble in the dollar both in the cash and in dollar denominated debt which would include u.s treasuries but uh private debt corporate debt now of course that debt is not necessarily the same thing as the us dollar because in theory private uh borrowers can default if you accept the premise that the u.s government will never default which of course may not be true because it could default i mean the u.s government defaulted on its promise to pay gold i mean think about that for a minute if you think the u.s government will never break a promise that it's made to a creditor right when

people owned us dollars in the 1950s and the 1960s we told them that we will give you an ounce of gold for every 35 dollars that you have every 35 federal reserve notes we promised to pay you it was written on the bills we promised to pay you uh an ounce of gold for your 35 so that was a contract it was a solemn commitment on the part of the united states it's the same commitment that we have now to people that hold our bonds we promise to pay you you know a thousand uh dollars in paper right in federal reserve notes or ten thousand or a million whatever they're holding right we're making a promise to pay well we used to have a promise to pay gold and now we have a promise to pay dollars but we broke the promise to pay gold we told people we're not going to pay we told you we're going to pay we're not going to do it right you loaned us uh money that was redeemable in gold well we ain't paying you back

the same purchasing power that you loaned us that's what we told the world so that was a default there's no other way that you can describe it we reneged on a commitment to make good on the terms of a contract right of an iou iou gold right well so if we defaulted then why can't we do it now why can't we tell holders of us treasury bonds we're not going to pay in fact donald trump even hinted about not paying the chinese he was like look you infected us with this kova 19 the china flew we might not pay you the interest we owe you or the principal you on these bonds so trump even talked about defaulting we're needing on a commitment so people who think that it's impossible it's already happened so you know if it can happen once it can happen again but if you just even accept the premise that it's unlikely that the u.s government will default after all they could just print i mean there's a reason they didn't want

to pay gold because they can't print that but there's no limit to how many federal reserve notes they can crank off right or they can add as many zeros as they want on on those electronic bills so in theory they wouldn't be forced to default so as long as they're not going to default then having a treasury is the same as having a dollar you just have to wait for it to mature to get all of them but of course as the dollar's free fall gets higher and higher and if the dollar starts losing value faster that means you're going to lose that much more if you have to wait right if you're stuck with a 30-year bond and you're not getting your dollars for 30 years if you have to turn around and sell that bond to somebody else what do you think they're going to give you if the dollar is in free fall and they know they have to wait 30 years i mean who knows what if any value a dollar today might actually have if

you're not going to get it for 30 years after all look at the coupon the coupon on that bond is nothing so maybe the price has to fall substantially to where they get an annual coupon of maybe 10 or 15 percent of 20 but think about how low the price of a treasury would have to fall in order for the buyer to have that type of return on the investment and think about how much you're going to lose having to sell the bond at such a big discounted price and of course the price you're getting is still being paid in u.s dollars so you end up getting a huge haircut you don't get anywhere near the face value but the dollar itself has also gone down inflation has caused the price of goods and services to go up so your bond crashes you get back fewer dollars but now your fewer dollars buy even less because of how much value the dollar is lost so you lose twice to inflation if you're holding a long-term

government bond you lose much more than if you're just holding cash you lose either way but the biggest losses will be reserved for the people who are foolish enough uh to own debt instruments denominated in dollars and you know the lower these things are yielding the more you're likely to lose so the biggest losses could be in the treasury market which is why i've been telling people get out i mean if i'm going to go down with a ship i'd rather go down with the s p 500 than bonds i mean i think investors will lose a lot more in the bond market people who think they're hiding out in a safe haven they're worried about the risk in the stock market and so they're buying bonds again that's like jumping out of the frying pan of the fire there's a lot of risk in bonds and you just do not want to go there if you're there get out you need to be mitigating the risk of inflation the fed is promising more inflation and that's one

promise they're going to keep they will deliver on that promise in spades and so you want to not own u.s dollars you want to own real assets foreign assets dividend-paying foreign stocks you want to own real money you want to own gold you want to own silver and you want to move into these assets as quickly as you can you know we are literally living on borrowed time and you know i don't know how much longer we have can we have years sure we could i mean i'm surprised we've made it this many years but you know what's been happening recently so many alarm bells are ringing so many warning signs are flashing that you really can't ignore it and you really can't press your luck and really that's what it's been i mean people who have been in the dollar in the u.s markets for the last decade have been lucky right they they just got lucky they didn't get wiped out because they got lucky because the fed

was able to bail them out well as i said earlier in the podcast there's a limit to how much longer that's going to work because eventually they have to destroy the dollar in the process and that's all you've got you're investing in dollars and dollar denominated assets so once they destroy the dollar it may not matter how many you have if the dollar has no value then what differences make how many units of a worthless currency that you have and of course even if the dollar doesn't become worthless if it just becomes worth a whole hell of a lot less that dramatically reduces uh your living standard the real value of of your assets and the income that those assets are able to generate and then therefore your standard of living that you're able to afford uh with the income from those assets or you know the principle that you may receive uh when you liquidate those assets so before this gets

any worse before the dollar bubble and the bond market bubble really goes pop right and the air starts gushing out you need to get your get your portfolio uh set up if you're already working with me at europe pacific capital if we've already got you invested uh fully invested in foreign stocks and precious metals and gold stocks well then you're fine just sit back and you know not enjoy the show but at least realize that uh you've protected yourself you've protected your family but if you haven't done that yet or if you're just now finding out about my podcasts make sure and call one of the brokers at euro pacific capital and talk to us about these strategies and how they would fit into your portfolio into your retirement accounts if you don't have any physical gold talk to shift gold you know again i just got the numbers for last quarter and we set a new record for quarterly sales at shift gold and that beat

the record that we set the prior quarter which was a record and now we beat that record and in fact even last quarter shift gold is actually selling more gold per quarter than we used to sell per year and we're still just scratching the surface on the demand for gold right the demand for gold is just now starting to pick up but it's still microscopic i mean compared to the amount of money that is going into overpriced stocks and bonds the tiny amount that's trickling into real money gold and silver this is still the beginning i mean it's hard to believe that two thousand dollars is really like the floor on gold but that's basically where we are i mean we're below you know we're at 1900 and change 1931 is the last price i mean we're still holding comfortably uh above the old highs you know maybe we'll get back below 1900 again i mean certainly it's possible that we get into the 1800s or even 1700s

but you know what i wouldn't want to bet on it right i mean i would much rather bet that we go higher then lower because i think the the risks for those people who want to bet gold's going lower and so they don't buy it they're going to lose a lot more if it goes higher without them even if you buy it now at 1930 and it temporarily goes down what have you lost no big deal right how low is it gonna go you know i know harry dent is now calling again for gold to go back down to a thousand of course when it was a thousand he told people not to buy it because he said it was gonna go to 400.

so harry's been bearish on on gold for a long long time i don't expect the price of gold to go back down to a thousand if it goes down there would i buy more absolutely but i really don't think it's going to happen in fact i don't think it's going back down to 1500 again i think those days are gone look at a chart uh it's pretty clear where the price is going look at what central banks are doing it's pretty clear what they're doing now and what they're going to keep doing in the future you don't have to take a wild gamble and bet on bitcoin when we have a tried and true alternative to fiat money which is real money gold and silver bitcoin and other crypto currencies are also fiat their value is based on faith in fact i actually watched an interview with uh pompliano on the rich dad podcast with robert kiyosaki and the reason i was even there is because i i checked out the interview that i did

with robert kiyosaki you know robert and i you know i've been going on these real estate guys cruises with him and he and i have become friendly he's a really great guy he's got some real interesting stories if you ever find yourself you know having dinner with him he's got some great stories from his old days uh but i i did his podcast so if you haven't listened to the interview check it out he also got into the media because he's he also has bought some bitcoin in along with uh gold and silver and i you know i told him i think he's mistaking uh to buy buy bitcoin but you know he's you know he's gambling on it uh like a lot of other people have gambled on it but mainly because he believes the dollar is toast he believes that we're going to see a crisis in the dollar and so he's buying whatever he thinks is a hedge and he knows that gold and silver at a hedge but a lot of people have been promoting bitcoin as a hedge

and so he's bought into some of that too hopefully he'll get out of it before he loses too much although i don't think he has that much money in it i don't know exactly how much so i can't say uh but knowing him i would imagine it's uh small compared to what he has in gold and silver or in other assets but the interesting thing about that interview was anthony pompliano uh affectionately known i guess in the bitcoin community as pomp and i think he's a nice guy as well i don't know him as much as i know robert as well uh but an interesting thing that that anthony said was that he said bitcoin's value comes from faith which is true that's exactly where its value comes from it comes from faith just like fiat currency it has no real value it has no real independent use people value it because they have faith that people always accept it in the future in exchange for goods and services and the same thing applies to bitcoin

the faith is that people will always want bitcoin why does anthony think people will always want bitcoin because it was first because it was the first cryptocurrency and therefore it's got the best brand and it's got the most people who believe in it the most people who have faith in it and there's a whole infrastructure that has been built around that faith and therefore it will continue well look it doesn't last forever in fiat currencies all of these faith-based currencies end up collapsing eventually but what keeps the faith going for extended periods of time is that government recognition is that legal tender status is that tradition of use is the fact that dollars or euros or yen are used in contracts in in insurance uh policies you know for wages and all sorts of things so there is a reason that faith can persist as long as it does but ultimately the faith goes right it's a confidence

game it's a con and the government can only con the public for so long into having faith in a piece of paper and eventually they all collapse the same thing is going to happen to bitcoin except its lifespan is going to be a lot shorter because it is not legal tender it does not have a government behind it it is not uh used as a media of exchange it's not used in contracts it doesn't have this long history of use uh as money no it just has faith i agree it has faith the difference is gold's value doesn't come from faith at all gold's value comes from the inherent properties of the metal all of the things that you can use gold for all the things that you can use gold for today all the uses that gold had in the past and all of the unknown uses that will be discovered for gold in the future my bet is that there's going to be more uses for gold that we don't even know about yet that will be discovered in the

future as we continue to advance as a society so it's those properties that never decay over time that you're storing when you're storing gold so gold does not require faith in anything gold is not simultaneously anybody else's liability you don't put your faith in anything it's when you don't want to trust something that you own gold because you don't have to trust gold because you have it you don't have to trust anybody there is a lot of faith uh inherent in in owning bitcoin and anthony admitted that and and that's why you don't want to own it because anything that's based on faith right based on confidence what happens when the confidence is lost well the value is lost too because the value only exists so long as the confidence exists and the confidence is going to go you only have 10 or 11 years of history to bet on right so you don't want to take a chance when you're looking at a massive

currency collapse the potential of hyperinflation you don't want to take chances and gamble on on an untested speculative uh potential alternative when you have the real thing that's right there so buy gold buy silver buy these dividend-paying foreign stocks make sure and talk to europe pacific capital if you're foreign euro-pacific asset management and shift gold

Questions about this episode

Who speaks in "🔴 BREAKING NEWS!! Air coming out of stock market bubble. The coming crash will likely be worse"?

Peter Schiff (Host).

What is "🔴 BREAKING NEWS!! Air coming out of stock market bubble. The coming crash will likely be worse" about?

The stock market is experiencing significant declines, with the Dow Jones dropping 632 points and the Nasdaq facing a correction of over 10% in just three days. This trend aligns with historical patterns indicating that September is typically a weak month for stocks, raising concerns about a potentially severe market downturn ahead.

What is mentioned in this GLOBAL NEWS PODCAST episode?

8 people, works and ideas are mentioned, including Gold, Federal Reserve, Dave Portnoy, Tesla, Inc., Bitcoin, Winklevoss Twins. Each one on this page links to its own page with every episode that mentions it.

How long is "🔴 BREAKING NEWS!! Air coming out of stock market bubble. The coming crash will likely be worse"?

The episode runs 60 min; the transcript is about 10,826 words in 62 timestamped sections.

More from GLOBAL NEWS PODCAST

About this transcript: the episode's spoken words as captioned on YouTube, split into timestamped sections. Reclip.Me locates every person, work and idea in the text, keeps the time it is first named, and quotes the words around it verbatim. Last updated January 27, 2026.