🔴 BREAKING NEWS!! Deflation, Inflation, National Debt...This is just a warm up

What this episode is about

The content discusses the return of the theme music to the show, plans for improved production quality, and the introduction of sponsorships to the podcast for a more business-oriented approach. Additionally, it emphasizes the importance of internet privacy through a sponsorship with ExpressVPN, aiming to enhance audience engagement and monetization.

Key takeaways

• The comeback of the theme music proves nostalgia can revive even digital podcasts – a classic never goes out of style.
• In a world where podcast sponsorship is essential, treating content like a business can turn hobbyists into industry players.
• Job losses near two and a half million this week raise the question: Are we really ready to reopen our economy?
• The Fed’s balance sheet has ballooned to over $7 trillion – a monetary maze few seem to navigate or care about.
• With the Fed's policies doubling past measures, history begs the question: Is this really growth or a precarious bubble waiting to burst?

Who speaks in this episode?

• Peter Schiff (Host) · 1 h 24 min speaking

What is discussed, and when

1. 0:00 – 10:00: Recession, QE3, ExpressVPN, Peter Schiff
2. 10:00 – 20:00: Federal Reserve, Financial Crisis, Money Supply, Recession
3. 20:00 – 30:00: Federal Reserve, Puerto Rico, S&P 500, ExpressVPN
4. 30:00 – 40:00: ExpressVPN, Gold Mining Stocks, Gold Fund, Puerto Rico
5. 40:00 – 50:00: Federal Reserve, Gold Bullion, Gold Mining Stocks, Europe Pacific Bank
6. 50:00 – 1:00:00: Gold Money, Gold, Gold Mining Stocks, Puerto Rico
7. 1:00:00 – 1:10:00: Federal Reserve, Gold Fund, US
8. 1:10:00 – 1:20:00: Federal Reserve, Gold, Gold Mining Stocks, Financial Crisis
9. 1:20:00 – 1:28:47: US, Federal Reserve, Gold Mining Stocks

Notable quotes from "🔴 BREAKING NEWS!! Deflation, Inflation, National Debt...This is just a warm up"

• All have sponsors so i might as well do the same thing so the first sponsor for the peter schiff show podcast is expressvpn so i want to thank them they are sponsoring today's podcast you probably don't think much.

  about Peter Schiff · at 1:33

• And those are the balance sheets fed balance sheet and the weekly money supply number so the balance sheet was up a modest 103 billion dollars on the week and i say modest because we've had some much.

  about Money Supply · at 4:52

• Buying up all the bonds and now they're doing that i mean they're buying not only treasuries but munis and corporate bonds all the stuff i was warning about it's just that we managed to kick the can down the road for an entire decade.

  about QE4 · at 9:41

• This was money that didn't even exist and now poof it's here the fed waves its wand and there's a quarter of a trillion dollar trillion in dollars that wasn't here now is the fed adding any value to the economy no the.

  about Federal Reserve · at 11:29

• Except we're doing it in an even weaker economy because we never really recovered from the recession of 08 we papered that over with a bigger bubble so instead of correcting the imbalances that existed we made the imbalances.

  about Recession · at 13:44

• But not the value of the shares but of course i still am a big advocate of my mutual fund the europe pacific gold fund hey by the way thanks to all the people who are buying my gold fund i have the fastest growing gold fund.

  about Gold Fund · at 34:14

• By the way you know when you're buying gold stocks you're actually buying the gold that's in the ground right you're buying physical gold these gold mining companies have the gold underground.

  about Gold Mining Stocks · at 35:21

• So now they're going to succeed in destroying even more value even quicker so the case for gold has never been stronger than it is right now next question is from europe do you have a real example of a successful country both for people.

  about Gold · at 1:19:06

Who and what is mentioned in this episode?

People

• Peter Schiff — Person · Host / primary speaker · 1 mention · first at 1:37
  He drives the episode: critiques Fed policy, argues inflation/hyperinflation risk, promotes gold/gold miners, and answers audience Q&A.
• Larry Kudlow — Person · Referenced commentator (historical example) · 1 mention · first at 6:39
  Used as an example of early QE skepticism in 2009–2010, contrasted with today's complacency.
  Kudlow i talked about that i made that youtube video with the star wars theme cuddler was worried he didn't like what the fed was doing a lot of people i wasn't the only one i mean i was one of the only ones that was.

Companies & orgs

• Federal Reserve — Company · Primary criticized institution · 11 mentions · first at 11:22
  Central villain in Schiff's narrative: QE expansion, balance sheet growth, money creation, and inability to fight future CPI inflation.
• Europe Pacific Bank — Company · Schiff business project / solution vehicle · 1 mention · first at 43:46
  Schiff describes plans to open the bank to Americans and offer gold-denominated accounts with debit card spending and FX conversion.
  Hopefully by next year right what i am hoping to do with europe pacific bank is a i'm going to open it up to americans i mean the whole purpose for me not allowing americans initially was because i didn't want to be.
• Gold Money — Company · Referenced payments platform · 4 mentions · first at 54:13
  Schiff mentions having a GoldMoney account and discusses how regulatory compliance hindered GoldMoney's small-account vision.
  On gold miners based on your advice can i pay you a commission of a gram of gold via gold money yeah you know anybody can send me money i have a gold money account and so people can send me money i.
• Auburn University — Company · Venue referenced · 1 mention · first at 8:03
  Schiff cites a 2009 lecture given at/associated with Auburn University as evidence his warnings were early but correct.
  Again you know and this is a lecture i did down at i think auburn university the mices institute henry haslet lecture in 2009 and it's not on my youtube channel i actually tweeted out the link today.

Products & tech

• Gold — Product · Core investment theme / hedge asset · 2 mentions · first at 52:04
  Schiff frames gold as protection against Fed money printing, currency debasement, and future inflation; he also discusses transacting/banking in gold.
• Gold Mining Stocks — Product · Core investment vehicle discussed · 6 mentions · first at 35:24
  Schiff argues miners provide leveraged exposure to rising gold; discusses exchanges, ETFs vs active management, and crash behavior.
• Gold Bullion — Product · Proposed account denomination / spending base · 2 mentions · first at 46:05
  Schiff describes bank accounts denominated in gold bullion and spending via debit card where gold is liquidated into local currency.
  But you're having a bank account where the currency for your account is gold bullion and i've written that into our core banking software and so now anything you do with that.

Concepts & topics

• Money Supply — Concept · Key metric supporting inflation thesis · 2 mentions · first at 4:56
  Schiff highlights weekly money supply increases (hundreds of billions) as direct inflation and as future driver of CPI inflation and dollar weakness.
• QE4 — Concept · Current policy focus / escalation · 10 mentions
  Schiff labels the current massive asset purchases as QE4 and argues it is far larger and more dangerous than prior rounds.
• Recession — Concept · Macro condition discussed · 3 mentions · first at 3:43
  Schiff frames the downturn as deeper/longer than expected, citing unemployment claims and arguing the economy never truly recovered from 2008.
• Financial Crisis — Concept · Historical anchor / precedent · 4 mentions · first at 6:53
  Schiff references 2008 to argue the Fed papered over imbalances with bigger bubbles and is repeating the same mistakes at larger scale.
  All the stuff that i was saying about what we were doing wrong following the 2008 crisis we're doing all the same stuff now only bigger following this crisis and i think back then i did not believe at that time back in 2009 i did not.
• QE3 — Concept · Benchmark for scale comparison · 2 mentions · first at 5:10
  Schiff compares current weekly balance sheet growth to QE3's $85B/month to emphasize how much larger QE4 is.
  Sheet i mean so this is a big number remember the peak from qe3 was four and a half trillion and the lowest we got it was a little bit below 4 trillion 3.8 ish we've now about.
• QE1 — Concept · Historical policy reference · 1 mention · first at 6:24
  Schiff references QE1 as the start of repeated QE programs and notes early skepticism that has since faded.
  You know people were worried initially i mean i remember in 2009 2010 when the fed first launched qe1 right and again it wasn't qe1 it was just qe because people didn't know…
• S&P 500 — Concept · Market benchmark / bubble proxy · 3 mentions · first at 23:36
  Used as shorthand for U.S. equities and as an example of assets the Fed/government tries to prop up; appears in Q&A about crash effects.
  Silver equities mag silver first majestic when the s p crashed will these get brought down with it like in march look all the stocks went down in march the gold stocks went down in fact they.
• H-22 Fair Tax Bill — Concept · Policy proposal discussed in Q&A · 2 mentions · first at 36:33
  Schiff discusses the FairTax as preferable to income tax and especially to inflation-financing, but says it requires major spending cuts to work.
  I've you know advocated the fair tax i mean it's certainly better than what we have right now the fair tax is basically a national sales tax and look the worst possible way for the government to collect revenue other than.
• Economic Productivity — Concept · Supporting concept in tax argument · 2 mentions · first at 39:52
  Schiff argues income-tax compliance and avoidance waste resources and reduce productivity; he frames simpler consumption taxes as less damaging.
  And all of that money and all that time and effort spent complying with taxes diminishes economic productivity to say nothing of individual liberty where now the government is spying on everybody and we've lost all of our.
• QE2 — Concept · Historical policy reference · 1 mention · first at 10:19
  Mentioned as part of the sequence of QE programs that created complacency about money printing.
  The reason is we got away with it last time we are so complacent you know because of the fact that we did qe one two and three right and nobody thinks there was a problem no one thinks we got the.

Places & events

• US — Place · Primary macro setting · 3 mentions · first at 1:04:50
  The episode centers on U.S. Fed policy, unemployment, deficits, national debt, and questions from U.S. listeners.
  Adrian day a manager and you get a lot of diversification next question is from the u.s what's your take on the h-22 fair tax bill do you think it's a viable option look.
• Puerto Rico — Place · Host location / tax and access context · 5 mentions · first at 19:39
  Schiff records from Puerto Rico, discusses travel to Connecticut, geo-restrictions solved by VPN, and mentions capital gains tax benefits.
  When you have something like this but i'm in puerto rico and there's a lot of content that i can't access from puerto rico i go there and i try to look at it says it's not available in my area because for some reason it's not.

Sponsors

• Gold Fund — Product · Promoted investment product · 5 mentions · first at 34:18
  Schiff repeatedly recommends his Europe Pacific Gold Fund, citing inflows and performance and emphasizing active management over ETFs.
• ExpressVPN — Company · Sponsor / advertised product · 6 mentions · first at 1:40
  First sponsor of the podcast; Schiff reads ad copy about privacy, encryption, and geo-unblocking content.
  And nothing you're doing is actually going to be traced back to you and in addition everything that you're doing is 100 encrypted all of your data is encrypted so it's protected from hackers or things like that and you know i know.

Full transcript with timestamps

0:14 well as you can tell by popular demand the peter shift show music the theme song is now back i figured out a way to incorporate uh the music into uh the new uh live video format so people have been uh messaging me about it that they missed that music well now the music is here and you know another thing that i'm going to be doing i mentioned that i'm trying to up the quality of the podcast uh you know gotten in some new equipment you know i am intending on building out my studio here but kova 19 has kind of put that on the back burner uh you know you could barely get anybody to do anything on the island right now so i'm going to have to wait a while before i can do that but another thing that i am doing is i am introducing sponsors uh to my podcast you know i haven't had any sponsors at all although i did when i did the petership radio show i had sponsors i had commercials but then when i moved to the podcast

1:14 i just never bothered to do that but i really want to treat this uh podcast more as a business and and not a hobby because i think as a business uh it could be a lot bigger and that's my goal i want to have a bigger audience and all the big podcasts out there they all have sponsors so i might as well do the same thing so the first sponsor uh for the peter schiff show podcast is expressvpn so i want to thank them they are uh sponsoring today's podcast you probably don't think much about internet privacy on your own home network but expressvpn will secure your privacy and protect your information so visit expressvpn.com gold and get an extra three months free on your one year subscription so expressvpn slash gold the slash gold that's me so that lets them know that you heard about it on my uh podcast uh but you know i mean all the big podcasts as i said have sponsors joe rogan of course is the biggest of them all uh and you

2:21 know he's got sponsors in fact he just announced that he's moving over to spotify and by the way uh i am in the process of scheduling my fourth appearance on the joe rogan experience so i don't have a set date yet but it should be coming up i'm gonna be doing it remotely i mean normally i do the joe rogan's uh in studio in southern california uh but given uh the covet 19 and everything he's having some of the interviews remotely and since i really didn't have any plans to visit southern california we're going to do a remote uh version so i'll let everybody know uh when that is scheduled as soon as it is so you can make sure and and listen to that i'm excited about going on that show he's got a much bigger audience now it's like every time i come on the show again he's even bigger uh than he was the last time i was on but hopefully i can emulate some of that success and bringing on sponsors and really treating

3:19 this thing like a business uh will uh will help me achieve that anyway so getting into uh today's topics uh first of all you know i want to talk about some of the uh data that came out yesterday you know we got to get every thursday you know we get the uh unemployment numbers and i didn't really pay much attention to them obviously before uh this recession started and we keep getting these huge numbers and this week was no exception we ended up with almost two and a half million two million four hundred and thirty eight thousand was the number of people who lost their job in the most recent week and of course you know as we're getting closer and closer to when we're supposed to be reopening the economy and in fact some of the states now are gradually opening things back up where are the jobs you know why are we still losing millions of jobs per week right if we were so close to this you know

4:20 turning the economy back on wouldn't some of these companies be getting a jump on it wouldn't they be bringing back some of their workers or at least stop laying them off i mean the fact that we can still keep losing jobs by the millions uh in the span of a week uh just shows you that you know we've got a lot more to this downturn uh than than people think but we also got the other data points that come out on thursdays which you know i think are a lot more important than the the mainstream uh media seems to think and those are the balance sheets fed balance sheet and the weekly money supply number so the balance sheet was up a modest 103 billion dollars on the week and i say modest because we've had some much bigger jumps in weeks past but again remember that qe3 was 85 billion a month right so i mean we routinely beat that every single week uh with qe4 but also uh more important about

5:24 the last week is we brought the balance sheet now over 7 trillion for the first time it's 7.037 trillion is now the size of the balance sheet i mean so this is a big number remember the peak from qe3 was four and a half trillion and the lowest we got it was a little bit below 4 trillion 3.8 ish we've now about doubled almost doubled that balance sheet since the fed went back to qe which is an amazing feat i mean not like in a good way in a really really bad way and clearly i mean we could be a 10 trillion this calendar year in 2020 we could have a 10 trillion dollar balance sheet and the the crazy thing about it is nobody cares nobody is worried about this you know people were worried initially i mean i remember in 2009 2010 when the fed first launched qe1 right and again it wasn't qe1 it was just qe because people didn't know other than me that they would keep doing them but there were a lot of

6:34 people who were skeptical about it who were worried even though it was much smaller than what we're doing now even larry kudlow i talked about that i made that youtube video with the star wars theme cuddler was worried he didn't like what the fed was doing a lot of people i wasn't the only one i mean i was one of the only ones that was warning about the financial crisis going on television talking about the housing bubble and what was going to happen but once i was proven right on that once we had the crisis and the fed on land uh you know announced this program and when all the government spending increased i wasn't alone in criticizing it i was the only one that was talking about inflation and how this was very dangerous but a lot of those people that were worried about it back then they're not saying anything now i mean they're totally good with this uh even though it's it's much bigger and

7:27 again the the reason is we got away with it last time we are so complacent you know because of the fact that we did qe one two and three right and nobody thinks there was a problem no one thinks we got the inflation everybody thinks it worked and so they have no qualms about doing it again you know i i happen to watch a old uh speech of mine on youtube and then i tweeted about it somebody had reminded me about it and so i started watching it again you know and this is a lecture i did uh down at i think auburn university the mices institute uh henry haslet lecture in 2009 and it's not on my youtube channel i i i actually tweeted out the link today on their channel i want to because it's got like 450 000 views most of those views were from 10 years ago it was a pretty popular um a youtube video back in the day when i recorded it and you know it is an entertaining lecture i mean i was laughing myself and

8:33 i'm watching what i said myself nine years ago 10 years ago and i'm actually laughing out loud myself because a lot of stuff i'm saying is pretty funny so it's an entertaining hour but the interesting thing about it is really i could be given that lecture today right not 10 years ago and you know a lot of the things that i said were going to happen are happening a lot of them are happening now but one of the things that i got wrong in that was the timing of the the migration of inflation from financial assets to consumer prices i really expected a much bigger increase in consumer prices i was worried that we would have price controls that we would have such a big reaction in consumer prices to what the fed was doing that we would have price controls uh during obama's first term clearly that didn't happen but it could easily happen uh during um biden's first term i mean everything i was worried about

9:33 is going to happen it's just happening 10 years later than i thought but i did talk in that lecture about how the fed was going to ultimately be buying up all the bonds and now they're doing that i mean they're buying not only treasuries but munis and corporate bonds all the stuff i was warning about it's just that we managed to kick the can down the road for an entire decade but we're repeating all the same mistakes everything i said a decade ago is probably more relevant today because the crisis is now a lot closer because there is no way yes i you know i didn't anticipate that we'd be able to delay the consequences as long as we did but there's no way we're going to do it again but what everybody else thinks is that because it worked last time it's going to work again because we got away with qe1 2 and 3 well we'll get away with qe4 even though it's much bigger so even though the deficits under trump

10:29 and the bigger deficits that are coming under biden or even under trump if he gets reelected even though these deficits are much bigger in fact i'm looking online you can see the national debt is now almost 25 and a half trillion we just hit 25 trillion last week we're almost halfway to 26 trillion i'm sure we'll hit 26 trillion probably sometime next week i mean these trillions are just adding up pretty quickly but even though we have much bigger uh increases in uh government spending and deficits and money supply i didn't even mention that you know we got the money supply numbers yesterday as well another uh 225.4 billion in new money in one week that follows the 198.9 billion that we got last week when you're talking about a quarter of a trillion the federal reserve conjured into existence a quarter of a trillion dollars last week this was money that didn't even exist and now poof it's here

11:33 the fed waves its wand and there's a quarter of a trillion dollar trillion in dollars that wasn't here now is the fed adding any value to the economy no the fed doesn't produce anything not one widget right not one product no services there's no value associated with that money it's just new money that's spent into the economy and all it is doing is adding claims on the stuff that's there right the fed doesn't increase wealth it just creates more claims on the wealth that's there and who gets the claim it's whoever gets the new money right somebody gets a check from the government and now they have a claim on some of the goods and services that exist well at whose expense at the expense of somebody who already possessed that claim somebody who already had some money now that money buys less because somebody else gets to buy something with the new money that the fed created now sure you know

12:34 we can still suck in imports the dollar hasn't collapsed yet all of that is going to happen right everything go back and re-watch uh that talk that i did and just imagine i just did it because all the stuff that i was saying about what we were doing wrong following the 2008 crisis we're doing all the same stuff now only bigger following this crisis and i think back then i did not believe at that time back in 2009 i did not believe that the fed was going to succeed in reflating the bubble i mean i knew it was going to try i mean it was in the process it was printing all this money i just assumed that they would fail instead they succeeded right they they reflated a bigger real estate bubble than the one that popped in oh eight and they inflated a bigger stock market bubble than the one that popped in 2000 you know and now they both popped again in particular the real estate bubble commercial real estate is already uh

13:39 getting killed uh and so we're repeating those mistakes on a grander scale except we're doing it in an even weaker economy because we never really recovered from the recession of 08 we papered that over with a bigger bubble so instead of correcting the imbalances that existed we made the imbalances bigger we went even deeper into debt and so now that this bigger bubble has popped the fed is back to you know the drawing board doing exactly what it did uh back when i gave that talk only printing a lot more money running much bigger deficits and so this time there is no way to kick this can right we are going to now experience everything that i assume we were going to experience back then only much worse only a much deeper collapse even more inflation uh than than we had then but what i want to talk about now i read a couple of uh op-eds last couple of days by two very different people right paul krugman

14:49 and stephen moore right and so these guys are supposedly at the opposite side of the spectrum right i mean steve moore is a republican a libertarian a free-market guy he was a advocate of the gold standard at one time uh he walked that back a bit when he was in consideration for being on the federal reserve board uh but he's known as a very conservative free-market libertarian guy and he's obviously a trump supporter now um and then you got paul krugman right i mean paul krugman is a complete keynesian right big government guy big democrat you know nobel laureate right or nobel prize winner economist which means he basically knows nothing about economics in fact i often joke you know if you could lose a nobel prize for for being really dumb for saying something really stupid you know he would have lost his nobel prize a long time ago he would be short many many nobel prizes you know he'd owe

15:47 a bunch of them but of course you never have to give him back i mean i'm not even sure what he got it for but i'm sure whatever it was uh i would disagree with it but in any event uh they're very opposite guys yet they're on the exact same page when it comes to the federal reserve right both paul krugman who supposedly believed in sound money in the gold standard and paul krugman right who doesn't believe in the gold standard at all right but these two guys both want the federal reserve to print a ton of money keep on printing right they're both advocating government deficits right i'm sure uh steve moore would prefer the deficits resulted from tax cuts but he doesn't care he just wants deficits so even if it means more government that's a trade-off he's willing to make because he wants the fed to print more money right because uh steve moore according to him the the prosperity killer is deflation

16:43 that was his article his op-ed that i read it was like the real prosperity killer is deflation right so we can't have deflation so the most important thing is that the fed saves us from this menace of deflation now of course i've talked about that this on the podcast deflation is not something that we have to be saved from deflation doesn't kill prosperity deflation causes prosperity right at least you know when he is talking about deflation he's talking about falling prices falling prices are what we want because when prices go down we buy more stuff right which is good we want to have more stuff the cheaper the better right and you know i know people say well that's bad for business no it's great for business because their costs come down right their costs are also prices and when your costs come down and your prices go down you can maintain your margins but what you can do when your prices are

17:44 down is you can sell more stuff so you do more volume you make more money selling more affordable merchandise so deflation is not a prosperity killer now the mistake they make right they go back and they look at the great depression of the 1930s right oh prices went down yeah prices went down that's not what caused the depression they want to act like because prices went down in the 30s that's why we had a depression no that's not why we had a depression it's the depression that caused prices to go down but prices going down weren't the problem they actually mitigated the problem they cushioned the blow for people to see that you know the cost of living went down to try to blame the depression on the fact that prices went down that's like you know blaming uh uh the rain on on wet sidewalks the sidewalks are wet because it rained it didn't rain because the sidewalks are wet so when you say that we had a depression because

18:45 prices went down you got it backwards prices went down because we had the recess the depression and you know the same thing happened i talked about that on one of my podcasts not too long ago uh when i saw the airfares right airline prices ticket prices just collapsed right i was talk i think you know i mentioned on the podcast i saw like a three dollar or six dollar fare from san juan uh to uh to boston i mean just crazy price right i mean ridiculously low prices that was the knee-jerk reaction you know all of a sudden nobody was flying so the airlines just cut their prices right and that actually hit the cpi one of the reasons that we got such a low print was because of the collapse in in airfare well anyway i happened to go on the internet a couple of nights ago because i want to fly back to connecticut i've been here in puerto rico and i want to come back in early june and go back to

19:44 connecticut and so i'm looking online and sure enough the airfares have gone way up i mean there are more than they used to be right the the coach fares that i was looking at uh were anywhere you know i could get a there was sometimes you can get a flight for i think the cheapest i saw was 185 uh 185 dollars one way but most of the flights were 225 250 300 400 uh that's not what they used to be if it wasn't a holiday right so obviously if you want to go thanksgiving weekend or something like that yeah they jack the fares up but to just go on a normal day the cheapest fares one-way coach were usually around 115 125 and there were plenty of them that you could find 150 175 mostly those are gone and a lot of the flights there used to be a jet blue had a direct flight uh to hartford sometimes you could take that because it's not that bad they canceled all those flights they don't exist the only way to get to

20:44 hartford is you have to connect and it takes forever but the business class seats you know i like to fly business class uh delta is the airline i typically fly they had generally the best business class uh going between new york and and puerto rico and the last time i flew i checked i looked at my receipt i paid 345 one way for business that tells you how cheap it was because coach i probably could have got a coach ticket for 150 but i paid 350 345 for business right the cheapest business fare i saw for delta was like a hundred even eighteen hundred dollars like eighteen hundred and change and there were barely any flights to choose from most of the days there weren't even any flights at all i mean they had flights every day before so they have completely reduced the flights even coach on delta i couldn't even find a one-way coach fare on delta for less than twelve hundred dollars in fact on the one

21:45 flight i was looking at that had eighteen hundred dollar business the coach was almost seventeen hundred there was only like a hundred dollar difference between coach and and business so what's happened is after the airlines you know you know took a lot of planes and put them off in the desert somewhere right and they're storing them and they canceled all these flights now the prices have gone way up i said this was going to happen the knee-jerk reaction is that prices went down but now prices are way up now are consumers better off now that the prices are way up of course not they were much better off before they went up now of course most people still aren't flying so what difference does it make right if you weren't going to fly anyway it doesn't matter what the price of a ticket that you're not buying is but if anybody has to fly or they want to fly it's a lot more expensive now than it

22:38 was before covent and it's way more expensive than it was in the immediate weeks after covid but according to like more the problem isn't that airfares went up and said that they went down that the falling price was the problem no it wasn't the problem it was a consequence of the problem but for the economy are we better off now that we have to pay more to fly of course not but those are the realities of a falling standard of living but the reason that steve moore is trying to set up this phony boogeyman of deflation is he wants the fed to print more money and so the way to justify wanting more inflation is by saying that deflation is terrible and we have to prevent that and we need these uh uh uh the fed to print more money now of course what steve moore really wants is the fed to help trump get reelected and he thinks the best way to do that is to prevent the stock market from going down

23:39 prevent the real estate market from going down and just print a bunch of money to finance all these tax cuts or increases in government spending to put a band-aid on this cancer long enough to to re-elect trump but it is amazing to see a guy like steve moore who's a nice guy i know him you know personally i met him many many times we we speak at a lot of the same conferences or we did before they all started uh to get cancelled now that people aren't going to them uh but to see him advocating for massive deficit spending and money printing because he thinks that we need to be saved from the ravages of a fallen cost of living we don't need to be saved from that we need to be saved from big government it's the increased government spending that is the problem and monetizing that debt paying for that spending by printing money is an even bigger problem and uh steve moore should know that but no

24:33 instead he wants uh keynesian stimulus and he wants to pay for it by the federal reserve printing money to supposedly save us from collapsing prices that aren't even collapsing i mean a it's not even a bad thing but it's not even happening yes it happened a little bit initially but you know that's going to go away you know once all the going out of business sales are finished well i mean once you deplete the inventory and you don't restock it prices are going up right what's happening in the airline industry is just a taste of what's going to be happening in the overall economy and so the problem for the fed is what happens when we have an inflation problem as measured by the cpi what can they do about it nothing how are they going to fight inflation how are they going to raise rates they can't how are they going to shrink their balance sheet in order to raise race they got to start selling

25:30 uh treasuries they got to start selling muni bonds they got to start selling corporate bonds how are they going to do that when now everybody is counting on the fed to buy all this crap how are they going to turn around and sell it and who the hell is going to buy it and at what price so they have really put themselves in a box but now you know i want to get to uh to paul krugman right because paul crudman he wrote his article and krugman is now being critical of trump and other republicans who are anxious to get the economy going again right they want to reopen and krugman is like oh this is reckless uh you're risking causing a depression right like the biggest mistake we could make is go back to work too soon right we don't want people going back to work uh because they might get sick right we might spread the virus so in order to uh make sure that we don't infect more people then we got to stay sheltered at home

26:27 longer right and if we come out of hiding too soon that is the risk right and the republicans are just you know they don't care they're just trying to make it look good so before the election and so they're risking depression by bringing people home too quickly what krugman wants is everybody to stay home and not work and have the government to keep on printing money because he was saying that fortunately you know it's fine nobody has to work nobody has to do anything because we could just send out all these checks we can print all this money and give it to people and so krug was not worried about that at all somehow that's not a problem you know there's a big difference between working for money and just having the government print it you see when people go to work they do something at least most of the people right not the government workers but the people that work in the private sector

27:17 you go to work and you are producing something you're helping to produce some good you're helping to provide some service that has value and what you're paid is a percentage of that value that your labor is helping to create so for adding something into the pot you now get money that allows you to take something out of the pot right we all put in with our work and then we get to buy some of the stuff that we helped produce right well if everybody just sits at home and doesn't produce anything but the government just replaces their lost income by printing money there is a big difference there because you're getting money and you're not doing anything you're taking out of the pot but you put nothing into the pot so all that's happening is we're bidding for stuff that's not there right so krugman doesn't think that's a risk at all he is not worried about the consequences of not sending people back to work and about

28:19 continuing to run the printing presses continuing to pay people to do nothing because he doesn't see a problem with that because he loves government spending he thinks government spending creates wealth and right now i guess stephen moore is on the same page because they're both advocating for the same policies nobody is out there on either side advocating sound money saying no no this is wrong we can't do this we can't print all this money we can't run these deficits we have to cut spending we need sound money because nobody wants to deal with the short-term economic and political consequences of doing the right thing so instead we did the wrong thing and because we got away with doing the wrong thing from 2008 until you know the present people think we can get away with doing the wrong thing indefinitely well we can't you know the people who were worried about the problems in 0809 like me we were right

29:17 we were early but we were right the people who weren't worried were wrong right they don't realize they were wrong because the consequences were delayed and because they were delayed guys like krugman think that they were vindicated right because nothing bad supposedly happened and guys like me were proven wrong well what's about to happen is going to prove guys like me right anyway before i get into the questions and we got plenty of questions which i've been answering on friday i want to talk a little bit more about our sponsor uh expressvpn um so i want to make sure you know um expressvpn i mean the thing about it is your um uh yeah you're um isp your internet service provider right when you're just browsing the internet your internet service provider knows every site that you visit i mean everything you do you leave a record of that with your internet service provider and that's that

30:21 information is there and they have it and they can supply it to any government agency that's requesting it i mean you have absolutely no privacy whatsoever when you are browsing the internet but if you use expressvpn that's different because what's happening is everything you're doing is being routed uh through other ip addresses that are shared with multiple users so what actually happens is all of your searches becomes anonymous and nothing you're doing is actually going to be traced back to you and in addition everything that you're doing is 100 encrypted all of your data is encrypted uh so it's protected uh from hackers or or things like that and you know i know they have uh maybe some of these uh uh a vpn's services i think you can get for free but but they're they're really no good i mean you basically get what you pay for and you get a lot of value uh when you're using express vpn in fact one of the things i found

31:15 out when i started using it because i'm here in puerto rico and these are just extra benefits when when you have something like this but i'm in puerto rico and there's a lot of content that i can't access from puerto rico i go there and i try to look at it says it's not available in my area because for some reason it's not licensed in puerto rico but when i'm browsing and i click on the express vpn icon which is on you know on my laptop now and now i start browsing through that all of a sudden the computer you know they don't know that i'm in puerto rico i mean they think i'm in florida wherever i happen to select and so now i i can access content that uh other words i i wouldn't otherwise i wouldn't be able to access and also you know when i'm in puerto rico sometimes i do stuff and it defaults me into spanish right because they figure hey i'm in puerto rico i must speak spanish which i don't but if i'm browsing using

32:09 the expressvpn and i i'm pretending i'm in florida i don't get any of that everybody assumes that that that i'm speaking english so i think there's a lot of benefits uh to uh having this uh this service so anyway uh so to protect protect your online activity today with the vpn that i trust to secure my privacy visit the special link at expressvpn.com gold and you can get three months free on a one year package that's expressvpn.com gold expressvpn.com gold to learn more about the first uh sponsor of the new and improved uh peter shift show uh podcast anyway let me go to the q a

33:03 first question this one comes from the uk from brett stiletto which exchange is the best to buy gold stocks on i am in the uk and have purchased my stocks on the tsx to avoid the u.s dollar or is it better look you know it doesn't really matter what exchange you're using because the gold stocks they're not it doesn't matter what currency they're trading in right it's ultimately the value is the goal that they have and their earnings so whether you trade it on the tsx on the new york stock exchange australia with different uh exchanges you're buying the same thing you're going to get the same return regardless of what exchange so look you know depending on the stock that you want to buy see where it's got the most liquidity i mean obviously you know for americans if it's on the new york stock exchange you're probably going to get a better uh rate you don't have to do the fx conversion versus going and buying it

34:03 in toronto or something like that but once you own the stock it doesn't matter where it's trading it's the same company uh and obviously you know the currencies reflect the price but not the value of the shares but of course i still am a big advocate of my mutual fund the europe pacific gold fund hey by the way thanks to all the people who are buying my gold fund i have the fastest growing gold fund uh in the country right now as far as the percentage gain in the assets under management so the assets under management are going up because the stocks are going up right so gold stocks are rising so that is causing uh the fund to gain value but most of the value year to date has come from people adding money people are buying my fund but you know they're not necessarily buying a lot of other gold funds i mean most gold funds are also getting inflows although there are some of them that have had outflows uh but mine is

34:59 unique i mean the the the inflows into my gold fund are much higher than we're seeing i think i'm about triple the inflows of the average gold fund uh and i think that as the price of gold really starts to move and these gold stocks really shine even brighter than they are now i think we're going to see even more money coming into the sector which obviously is very very bullish for the price of these gold stocks and by the way you know when you're buying gold stocks you're actually buying the gold that's in the ground right you're buying physical gold these gold mining companies have the gold underground they haven't even mined it yet and and the key right is a lot of this gold the market is assigning no value to that gold because they don't think it can be profitably mined because maybe uh the price of gold is 1700 an ounce or 1735 but maybe the cost of mining it is 1800 or 1900 right so it's worthless right

35:53 what's the point of spending 1800 to dig up a metal that you can only sell for 1700 right but what happens when gold is 3 000. all of a sudden that gold that had no value is very valuable and now that value is going to be in the stock price and now the stock is going to have to reflect the present value of all the money they're going to earn in the future mining and selling that gold so it's it's like i think it's a great time to be buying these stocks regardless of what exchange you buy them on uh and again get my fund that way you get uh adrian day a manager and you get a lot of diversification next question is from the u.s what's your take on the h-22 fair tax bill do you think it's a viable option uh look i've you know advocated the fair tax i mean it's certainly better than what we have right now the fair tax is basically a national sales tax and look the worst possible way for the government to collect revenue

36:56 other than through inflation right which is what they're doing now right printing money right this is the most expensive way the most economically damaging way to an economy to pay for government is to have the central bank do it right so we we're doing the worst thing that you possibly can do i mean politically it's expedient to do that uh but it's literally the worst way to pay for government the next worth way is probably the income tax right and a progressive income tax is worse than a flat tax so if we're going to make the mistake of taxing income let's at least have a flat tax where everybody pays the same amount right and and what i like about that too is i don't like voters paying for higher taxes that they themselves don't have to pay right it's one thing to vote to tax somebody else but it's a whole other thing to vote to tax yourself so i think everybody should be subject to any tax

37:49 so if you're going to vote for higher taxes you should have to pay a higher tax yourself you shouldn't be able to vote for higher taxes that other people are paying but you're avoiding right i don't like that right but i don't like taxing income at all right why would you want to do that right if there's an old economic adage that you get uh less of what you tax and you get more of what you subsidize well we want hard work we want people to save and invest why tax that why discourage people from working and investing by putting a tax on it right so what we should do is we should tax consumption right now that doesn't mean that the rich people escape taxation because you have to consume your wealth if all you do is earn a bunch of money and you never spend any of it well i mean why even tax you you're like a benefactor all you're doing is using your wealth to grow the economy to create goods provide

38:44 services provide employment opportunities but when rich people try to spend the money they've earned then let them pay the tax right and since rich people spend more money than poor people they will pay a higher tax than poor people right i mean because they're going to buy more stuff so you're still going to get more taxes from the rich but you're going to tax them when they're spending their money not when they're earning their money so you don't want to discourage earning plus the other reason to favor a sales tax over a income tax is that it's very easy to pay the tax right you buy something right and there's a tax right let's say there's a national sales tax that was 10 i buy something for a hundred dollars i pay a 10 tax it's real simple i don't need a lawyer i don't need a tax accountant i don't need to keep books and records you know i mean it costs the economy a fortune to comply with the income tax

39:43 right all the record keeping and all the legal and services and accounting services and all of that money and all that time and effort spent complying with taxes diminishes economic productivity to say nothing of individual liberty where now the government is spying on everybody and we've lost all of our rights uh because the government wants to make sure that we're not evading the income tax we'll just have a sales tax it's easy to collect it's simple to collect nobody has to fill out any forms nobody has to swear on the penalty of perjury or risk going to jail or all this stuff and then you don't have to have all kinds of trusts and complicated uh structures that people create to try to minimize their taxes all of this is a waste all the time and effort gone into avoiding taxes is is is effort and resources that can't go into producing goods and services so you want to have a tax that is very simple to collect and

40:40 you want to focus it on consumption the thing is obviously i don't think the government can collect as much revenue from those type of taxes as they do from income taxes which is great because i don't want the government to correct all this revenue but that means we need massive cuts in government spending so if you want a fair tax if you want a tax that doesn't cause you to give up your constitutional rights right then we have to have less government we need cuts in government spending but unfortunately none of the advocates of the fair tax are talking about dramatic cuts to government spending because that's the only way it's going to work next question from europe what do you think about the monetary base rising faster than m2 during qe lowering the money multiplier uh why won't that cause deflation look what the fed is doing right now is massive inflation right it's not even about waiting for

41:34 the inflation we don't have to wait for anything the inflation is here right what we're waiting for is the consequences of inflation to migrate from financial assets to consumer goods that's going to happen but if you wait for that to happen it's too late to do anything about it it's too late to protect your wealth it's too late for the government to do anything about it right that's why they're supposed to be preemptive they're not supposed to wait until they see the whites of inflation's eyes before they fire they're supposed to anticipate the eyes and fire before right that's the whole idea but now they're saying oh no no we don't want to do that we're going to wait until the inflation genie is completely out of the bottle and then oh yeah it'll be really simple to put put her back in which of course it's not it's impossible uh to do that especially when you've inflated a bubble the size

42:24 of the one that we have now which is completely dependent on keeping interest rates at zero how do you raise interest rates dramatically above zero to fight inflation once you've created an economy that's so addicted to keeping rates at zero and how does the federal reserve go from the biggest buyer of treasuries and bonds to the biggest seller how do they unwind this balance sheet they could not even shrink a four and a half trillion dollar balance sheet before we started the hemorrhage in the fourth quarter of 2018. how are they going to shrink this balance sheet which is already 7 trillion and rising you know by the time they finish this program maybe we're going to have a 20 trillion dollar balance sheet how are they going to shrink that and what are they going to shrink it to 19 trillion and then they're gonna have to blow it up again so no i mean deflation is not the problem uh it's inflation and it the real

43:16 problem is hyperinflation that's that's the worst possible risk next question uh todd uh profito um what do you expect shift bank wait shift bank i mean you're observing make the whole deposit in gold in america okay so this is when when is my um my ship uh my europe euro pacific bank going to take americans and have gold deposits hopefully by next year right what i am hoping to do with europe pacific bank is a i'm going to open it up to americans i mean the whole purpose for me not allowing americans initially was because i didn't want to be subjected to all the compliance costs of having americans but now i have those compliance costs anyway even without americans i mean the the amount of compliance that has come into the offshore banking industry since i first started is so enormous right it's costing me a fortune to stay in business and i'm having to do all this stuff that i didn't want to do

44:20 well i mean i might as well just take the americans because there's so much compliance now uh without having americans that's not really going to add anything so i am going to be taking americans but i'm still trying to get uh uh to be a direct issuer of uh visa or mastercard or both um there's still a few things i'm waiting with for you know with uh with the federal reserve uh that i need to get moving on but hopefully a lot of this stuff will uh you know come to fruition by the end of the year uh the government the shutdown covert 19 delayed me some more because you know people weren't working um but hopefully by next year americans will be able to open up accounts at your pacific bank and they can denominate their accounts in any currency they choose any major currency or gold right and i would prefer to see my customers denominate their deposits in gold but the bank will hold your your gold

45:23 just like it would hold your dollars or your euros right i would i would you know just like any like if you went to bank of america and you open up account you have dollars right that you've actually loaned your money to bank of america they have your dollars right and now they you know you're you're a creditor uh your deposit is their liability the same thing would happen at my bank uh your deposit would be my liability but i would hold your deposit in gold and credit your account that gold so now you're basically banking gold right which is i i have the url bank yourgold.com is one of the ways i want to market it but you're having a bank account where the the currency for your account is gold bullion and i've written that into our core banking software and so now anything you do with that bank account is from gold right if you get a debit card and you use it uh you're spending your gold and so

46:22 whether you're using it in the u.s or whether you're using it in europe or asia the gold will be sold to get the currency that you just spent right to buy something right if you want to send a wire right gold would be liquidated to fund that wire and the currency that you're wiring if you're doing it check uh you know buy uh you know online you we're not gonna have physical checkbooks but you'll be able to do that or if you're sending a third party basically anything you could do with a bank account that's denominated in dollars you could do the same thing with a bank account that's denominated in gold right now if you're going to spend your gold directly right while you're in the u.s it would be like you're spending a foreign currency because gold is being viewed just as any other currency so if you have dollars in your account and you buy something in the us using your debit card it doesn't have to

47:14 do a foreign exchange because you have the dollars in your account and you're spending dollars but if you go to europe and you want to buy something in euros and you don't have any euros all you have is dollars well then we know to sell the dollars to get the euros well if all you have in your account is gold any place that you spend it no people are accepting gold now hopefully one day people will and my bank will allow that if you have an account at my bank and you want to sell a product and get paid in gold and one of my bank customers is your customer they can send gold directly to your account and that would be great i mean i'd love to see more people transacting in gold right but since most merchants are not going to be uh you know selling for gold they're going to want dollars or euros or you know yen or wherever they happen to be but you can use uh the the bank account to pay and that

48:04 the reason that i'm going to be able to do this cost effectively is because i've got all the compliance costs anyway of being a bank and it doesn't cost me any more to hold the deposits in gold than it does to hold them in any other currency and i'm not subjected to any additional scrutiny i have all the same regulatory procedures regardless of how i happen to store uh my my clients deposit so i i think i'm going to be able to offer this service in a way that nobody else can do it uh in a competitive way in a cost efficient way and by the way two people will be able to switch so you don't have to you can have your your your bank account you can have some gold you can have some dollars you can have some euros you can have some pounds you can have a basket of currencies that would include gold and you can spend whichever one you want so obviously most people if they're smart will spend all their fiat first

48:57 and only when they run out of fiat will they start spending any of their gold uh anyway but just be on the lookout i mean i will let people know when when this is up and running fully up and running uh i will let everybody know uh that the service is available and they can just go to the website your pacificbank.com and uh or europak bank.com and uh open up an account uh anyway next question oh oh this is uh from was this denmark thanks for the show got a portfolio of gold mining stocks and physical metal since i follow you for years i'm well positioned but when how do i know when it's time to start selling now i get this question a lot right people want to know when i should sell and look i you know obviously you know i made a big mistake with the benefit of hindsight i had a lot of profits uh in my gold stocks in 2011 i mean crazy amounts of profits uh that i left on the table because

49:55 remember back at the time i expected gold prices to go a lot higher i had expected the dollar to go lower and so i wasn't selling a lot of my gold stocks and then we had a big bear market now what i did is i used the bear market to accumulate even larger positions than the ones i had before uh and so now i'm in even better position but the question is how do i know when to sell because clearly i i didn't get it right last time although you know we weren't really big buyers at the highs and i didn't buy any stocks after they went up i mean i was fully positioned before the ride so i kind of wrote it up wrote it down i mean obviously there were people that didn't have any stocks before they went up and they piled in at the highs and then you know they sold out after the collapse and and they got killed um but this time i think we're gonna get the bigger move that i thought we would get last time

50:51 but that we didn't get because the fed was successful in convincing everybody that it could shrink its balance sheet that it could normalize interest rates uh and everybody believed them so i think we're going to get a much bigger move this time but what i think i'm going to be waiting for before i really want to cash out right is some sign that we're changing course that we're doing the right thing that we're turning off the monetary spigots that were swallowing the medicine right and things are going to be really bad and i bet everybody's going to be buying gold i mean i'm not going to be considered crazy for buying gold i mean by the time i want to get rid of my gold stocks every portfolio manager is going to own them right now nobody owns them right because they don't think you should but when i really want to sell is when the idea of owning gold and gold stocks is mainstream we never even got there in 2011 right

51:49 i think we're going to get there this time right where you know it's part of every portfolio everybody's going to need gold stocks everybody's going to want gold stocks i mean that's the way it was in 1980 right when that bull market ended in the early 80s right but gold went from 35 an ounce to 850. at the peak of that market everybody wanted gold everybody wanted gold stocks it was just a normal thing you know i remember i used to listen to this radio station in florida i'm trying to remember this the the station what the name of the station was it's still still a big uh fm music station uh in florida but i remember they had a contest right you know and these radio stations have contests all the time right you know you know but the winner got an ounce of gold a gold coin i mean when was the last time an fm radio station gave out a a a one ounce gold coin as a prize right they did it back then

52:49 because people knew everybody wanted gold in 1980 because of how much it had gone up so when i'm gonna sell is when you're gonna have radio stations like that gonna be doing contests where the winner gets gets an ounce of gold but i don't think we're anywhere near that i don't think we're anywhere close to some type of mania in this sector uh where everybody is buying uh so i just think we right now we're gonna go along for the ride and we'll try to figure out uh when to sell uh when the time is right yes i missed it last time because of the head fake because people believe the fed no one's going to believe the fed we're going to get the big move uh that i thought we were gonna get back then and i guess the good news for me are people who fought my advice is because gold's gonna go to ten thousand or twenty thousand now i'm gonna end up making a lot more money than i would have made had it gone to

53:39 five thousand ten years ago because a gold's going higher now and b i have a much bigger position i've been able to accumulate gold stocks for the last 10 years right so i'm in much better position now to profit uh than i was back then and i'm living in puerto rico so i won't have to pay the capital gains tax uh which is even better um let's see next question from matt hernandez peter thanks for putting on your show i made pretty good returns trading options on gold miners based on your advice can i pay you a commission of a gram of gold via gold money uh yeah you know um anybody can uh send me money i have a gold money account and um so people can send me money i think you can just email it to me or text it to me uh a link i forget exactly uh how to do it but i know it's possible that you could send me somebody it wouldn't be commissioned it would be a gift but remember my advice i'm not advising people to buy

54:38 options i mean i think gold is going to go up and if you want to gamble on that and you do it in options you can make money my advice is to be more conservative to buy physical gold uh to buy the gold mining stocks to get your leverage that way but yeah i mean there's a lot of bang for the buck if you time it right when it comes to options but gold money uh although i don't even think you could do the transfers now i'm not even sure if americans could do it i mean i keep you know i'm not up to date on all the compliance that was big problem at gold money was they had a very ambitious program and i really was on board with it it would have been great but what they didn't anticipate was the massive regulatory hurdles that they would be forced to clear because what gold money wants to do technology is very simple the technology is there right that's why all these guys that talk about bitcoin no

55:31 we don't need that the technology that we have today makes it so you can transact in grams of gold you can buy a pack of chewing gum and pay for it in gold that's how small a unit you could break it down right it's very efficient it's the government that is making it inefficient by design right so that's one of the things i'm hoping to overcome at my bank but what i won't be able to do at my bank i won't be able to have a platform where people can buy fifty dollars worth of gold a hundred dollars worth of gold it is impossible gold money had the goal of doing that right they were going to allow people to have a 50 account 100 account and technologically it's no problem you could do it but the compliance costs make it impossible and they would make it impossible for me my bank would lose money on a 50 account in order for me to even break even let alone make a profit and my bank is not in business to break even i want

56:31 to make a profit like every business and so i have to charge my customers enough to make a profit well the problem is i'd have to charge these small accounts so much that it wouldn't even be worthwhile for them to have an account so there is going to be a point where i can charge a fee uh that is worthwhile to the client and and i can make a profit but it's not these tiny accounts i'm not sure what the minimum is going to be to make sense but it could be as low as five to ten thousand dollars right but that does leave people out if people only have 500 bucks or a thousand bucks they can't have the account right because it's just not large enough uh for me to be able to charge a fee to overcome the regulatory costs that are required to offer the service um next question oh here's a hundred dollar one all right this uh this is a big question here um this comes from summer time to 24 13.

57:29 um i love your takes i'm investing in silver equities uh mag silver um first majestic when the s p crashed will these get brought down with it like in march look all the stocks went down in march the gold stocks went down in fact they went down more than the non-gold stocks and i was on this podcast pounding the table telling people buy these stocks they're throwing the baby out with the bath water for whatever reason people were making huge mistakes selling their gold stocks now obviously there were some people that had no choice they had margin calls they had to sell but the people who were choosing to sell because they were panicking were making mistakes and i know i had clients that wanted to make those mistakes many clients i was able to talk them off the ledge and they didn't sell and there are some that did and some of the stocks i own some of these silver stocks are almost triple if you look at what the

58:29 low was i think it was march 23rd my birthday in the morning right the morning after the fed cut rates to zero there are stocks that have almost tripled from where people sold them back in march right feel really bad for the people who sold the people who bought you know got a gift right so if we have another big crash it is possible that the gold and silver stocks will go down again i just don't think they'll go down nearly as much as they went down last time and i think they'll bounce back but they might not even fall a lot of it might depend on what's happening with the dollar and what's happening with the price of gold because initially right we got a drop in the price of gold too but if we get a big move up in gold if we get a drop in the dollar then i don't care what's happening to the stock market even if the stock market crashes my bet is that gold mark gold stocks go up so i would just buy them

59:20 don't worry about the stock market crashing because if it does and if it temporarily drags down your gold stocks it's no big deal just buy more if you have the cash next question um from gary m if you're predicting a collapsing dollar is correct if your prediction of clapton dollars collect is it not counter-intuitive to invest in u.s gold stocks uh will gains not be wiped out of course they won't be wiped out if the dollar crashes your gold stocks are going to soar in value now look even if the dollar loses let's say the dollar loses 90 of its value well now your gold stocks i mean they'll go up a lot more than 10-fold i think but when you sell them you're gonna get a lot more dollars ten times as many 100 times as many so you know the dollar crash doesn't take away your profits because you're going to have bigger dollar profits so you'll get a lot more dollars that have a lot less value

1:00:15 now if the dollar ends up having no value if it gets completely wiped out well then obviously you're not going to sell your gold stocks for dollars you're going to sell them for whatever replaces the dollar right but my guess is that the dollar is not going to go away i think eventually the dollar is going to be backed by gold again just like all the other currencies and so maybe when you sell your gold stocks you'll do it for gold for dollars that are now backed by gold but you're going to end up with a lot more dollars than you'd have now because the value of those gold stocks is going to go way up the dollar is just how we price them the value is independent of that price right because it's just a measure of what it's worth in terms of the dollar but the dollar could lose a lot of value and so now you would get many more of them uh when you go to sell your gold stocks or when you get a dividend on your gold

1:01:04 stocks your dividends will be uh with them up for much more dollars you'll get a lot more dollars in your dividends that now have less value but now you got a lot more of them so now you can afford to buy stuff next question um should i choose junior mining etfs or junior individual companies because of the swap lines that are the safe yeah you know there was there was i mentioned this video uh about you know uh the risk of being in countries that don't have swap lines with the fed and are these countries going to have an economic problem uh are they going to have to nationalize the mines look i i just thought that that warning was more to sell newsletters uh i don't think it's that much of a concern uh and so i would ignore it but i i don't recommend the etfs i recommend my fund right when you're buying an etf you're buying everything you're buying a basket i just think that adrian day who manages

1:02:07 my gold fund with his experience and his knowledge of this industry knowing the players knowing the companies knowing the management teams knowing the minds i think that he is going to give us a better portfolio you know there's you know people talk about the efficient market hypothesis right all the information is out there there's no point in trying to beat the market because everybody has the same information i don't think that's true certainly not when it comes to gold stocks i think there's a lot of people that don't know anything about gold stocks who are managing gold funds i don't think the best and the brightest have gone into gold right they've gone into other sectors and very few people have the experience and know-how that adrian day does that's why i hired him so i don't think it makes sense to just buy everything i think if you've got a smart guy that knows the industry he knows what to buy

1:02:57 and he knows what to avoid so i think it's worth paying a little bit extra to get a great portfolio than to just get a mediocre portfolio buying the good stocks but also buying the bad stocks right just you know so don't buy the etf just buy my fund or have an account set up with me that we manage account for you of individual gold stocks we create your own gold portfolio in your account of junior miners and some of the senior producers and some of the royalty companies and create a very powerful managed portfolio in the best gold stocks and hopefully we end up uh ignoring or avoiding the worst ones um next question comes from the uk backpack tennis that's the guy's name um hi peter is there any private ownership shares in central banks um well look i mean the the fed is a private bank banking syndicate right i mean it's not part of the government officially even though they de facto uh operate as

1:03:57 if they were a branch of the government they're not in fact if you get a letter from the federal reserve you'll notice that there's a stamp on it why i mean they can't frank it you get a letter from a government agency or department they don't buy a stamp but the federal reserve is private they have to buy it they have to buy a stamp in fact the way the federal reserve works they generate a profit but then they pay a hundred percent tax on the profit that exceeds a set amount i forget what that is it might be like five percent or four percent i forget the profit that they're allowed to make but everything above that and they earn a profit you know by collecting interest on their bond portfolio or whatever but they have to pay 100 tax which is one of the reason that these guys are spend frisks i mean you look at that building i mean have you ever seen an image go google it on youtube the federal reserve building it's a

1:04:48 beautiful building it is the most expensive building in washington dc they spared no expense because it was all deductible right it came against their profits right so they had an in they had a vested interest in the most expensive the most lavish building they could make because if they didn't spend the money they were gonna have to give it to the taxpayer give it to the government so it is the most over-the-top uh building in washington uh but yeah i mean they are they are private but there's no way to buy stock in the federal reserve i mean the the stockholders are set a long time ago and there's no way to buy shares um next question silver court metals is based in vancouver and is china's largest silver producer why don't we hear about the miners and could china take uh mines over look i've owned a silver court metals i mean i don't you know really talk about uh individual stocks it's not one of our you know favorite

1:05:49 names in that space we do have some stocks that we like the best i mean in fact talk to your pacific capital brokers uh about uh the stocks that i personally like the best i don't give recommendations on the podcast because of the regulators but you can get them from my broker brokers at europe pacific capital and we do have some silver stocks in the portfolio of the euro pacific uh gold fund but china is a big goal producer now in fact they're the biggest and they don't export any of it i mean they keep all the gold that they that they produce so i think that the chinese have been underestimating the amount of gold that they have i think they have more gold than they let on and i think they're going to continue to be big buyers of gold uh as the price moves up uh next question from joseph sullivan um the funny thing is most blue states support red states with federal tax dollars florida and texas are the only red

1:06:41 states paying their own bills if they leave they will have to raise taxes to pay their own bills uh yeah i mean if you actually look at the dynamics of some of these big blue states like uh california and new york because there are a lot of very high income people in those states paying big taxes that these states are actually paying more in taxes than their citizens are collecting in benefits i mean that's true um but uh if a lot of the um if a state were to secede right from the union if assuming that was possible and they no longer had to pay any federal income tax i think that state would be you know their economy would be so much stronger without having to comply with all the federal taxes and federal regulations that they wouldn't need all the government money that they get right and a lot of that government money hurts the economy right because the government is sending money where it wants it in ways that are not

1:07:53 efficient right we always want the market allocating resources so that resources go to where they're most efficiently used and we want people who are uh increasing uh the economy who are contributing the most to make the most we don't want the government deciding uh who gets the money which is what's happening so i think all of these red states that are actually net recipients of government money they get more in federal dollars than they pay out all of those federal dollars those taxes and the money they're getting back is undermining their economies and their economies would be far more prosperous they would be far wealthier if the federal government got out of the out of the picture completely right but the reason that these uh states are paying so much in is because they have all these rich people but a lot of these rich people are going to be moving out right look i mentioned joe rogan

1:08:52 uh earlier like he's talking about moving to texas i think maybe he will i mean i don't know i mean maybe it'll be harder for him to get some of the guests i mean maybe it's not as many people in texas as southern california that come into the studio but look elon musk is talking about moving out of california now and taking those jobs so if more wealthy entrepreneurs move out of these blue states into the red states then those dynamics are going to completely shift next question from mike phillips from the u.s peter for 30-something with 500k to invest uh would your allocation percentage be to gold gold stocks emerging markets international bonds u.s stocks um look there's a lot of information i don't have about you uh i got you know your age approximately and how much you have to invest but i don't know the rest of your uh portfolio or the rest of your net worth what your actual income is

1:09:50 um and and so i i can't just blankly say what you should do with that 500 000 but yes i mean you should definitely have a good healthy allocation to gold and gold mining stocks i mean more so now than you would normally have because of the tremendous upside potential that is in that sector based on what the fed is doing now and based on what the fed is going to do in the future but you never want to put all your eggs in one basket you do want to have some exposure to the emerging markets which i think are very very cheap you want to have uh money in good dividend paying foreign stocks i mean there is a balance that you can strike i mean the good thing about a lot of these foreign stocks that i'm buying is that even if i'm completely wrong about all the bad things that i think are going to happen in the u.s it doesn't mean that you lose money on these foreign stocks i mean i think foreign stocks

1:10:41 are very inexpensive just you know just looking at them on evaluation terms relative to the u.s market they've underperformed for a decade i mean foreign stocks did great in the first decade of this century uh and american stocks did horrible uh the next decade american stocks did great foreign stocks did poorly i think we flipped again and i think we're starting a big decade for international investing uh commodities emerging markets precious metals so exactly what i've been doing this is now the time for it so yeah i mean we could build a very good portfolio for you i mean i would set up a managed account you know the managed account minimum uh separately managed accounts that your pacific capital is 250 000 so with 500 000 to invest you've got more than enough to meet that minimum so my suggestion is to go to your pacific capital website and speak to a broker and you know get a more personal

1:11:34 uh you know recommendation based on the additional information that you'd be able to share with the representative uh so yeah i mean your pac.com is the website go there and you know give us a call appreciate it uh next question smash bros brawl you say that the s p 500 and artificially inflated home equity are de facto government retirement vehicles therefore not allowed to go down well i do believe that the government is trying to prop up asset prices as a matter of policy right remember this entire recovery right was um was built on the foundation of an asset bubble by design right that was the whole idea i mean ben bernanke laid it out right we're going to make real estate prices go up we're going to make stock prices go up and as a result of that people are going to spend more money like we're going to create all this paper wealth which you know that's exactly how we got into trouble it was all the phony wealth

1:12:39 of the real estate bubble that caused the financial crisis when all that wealth vanished and all the people stopped making their mortgage payment but the fed was just all right well let's just inflate a bigger bubble because that's all they know how to do they have no stomach for a real recovery so we just went back to another bubble because politically that was the one uh that was the easiest path to go down and so yes of course they are targeting asset prices that's why when the stock market goes down the fed cuts rates the fed goes back to qe so they're trying to keep the real estate market up they're trying to keep the stock market up but they're damaging the economy in the process which ultimately is undermining the value of stocks in real estate that they're trying to prop up so the more they try to artificially prop up asset prices the more real value they destroy of the assets that they're propping up

1:13:34 so eventually the whole thing comes tumbling down either in reality or in real terms because we have hyperinflation because the dollar crashes instead of the asset prices going down the value of the dollar that they're priced in goes down and the result is the same you get wiped out right instead of you know having less money you have more money but you can buy less stuff with it and that's where we're headed um next question i'm in my 20s i do not have a lot of money to buy gold is there anything i can do to set myself up to succeed well i don't know how much money you have you could buy silver but you know if you don't have much money look you don't have anything to lose right other than the value of your wages but if you're spending all your wages as you earn them well you know you're not going to get wiped out to inflation in fact if you have some debt uh then your debt will get wiped out i

1:14:28 mean you end up suffering because you're living in a poorer country but as an individual the people who have the most to lose are the people who have the most savings the people who have the financial assets that are going to be wiped out i mean one of the things i i have advocated for people who don't have a lot of money uh is just to stock up on stuff right i mean if you have an extra hundred dollars or two hundred dollars there's no point in saving it just buy more stuff right i mean stuff that you're going to need like buy more food buy more supplies buy things that you're going to need to buy in the future if you got extra cash just buy those things now and store them in a closet somewhere because if you when you go to buy them in the future they're going to be more expensive that's just the reality or they may not even be available right there are a lot of products you might not even be able to buy

1:15:15 uh so stock up on those um next question been watching listening and reading you since 2007. thanks for opening my eyes it's changed my life for the better keep up the great work oh okay that's just a compliment i appreciate that uh zelbach pike it's an interesting weird name but anyway thanks for the compliment up that's the next one too it's just a compliment guy paid me ten dollars thank you for what you're doing thanks for the 10 bucks that is tio next question is chelsea um from the uk how can i convince my family to buy gold they think their money in the bank is safe and they aren't willing to buy gold unless i say i will guarantee that they won't lose yeah you know i get that too and people say hey will you will you guarantee me that i don't lose money of course how can i guarantee that you won't lose money right anybody looking for a guarantee there are no guarantees right the only way i can guarantee that

1:16:10 you don't lose money is don't invest it right keep it in you know take your dollars and put them under your mattress or your or your pounds if you're in the uk and you won't lose them most likely i mean it's possible you can still lose them somebody can steal them but you know you won't lose them but there's no guarantee that the money has any value that is the problem so there's no guarantees in anything even the things that people think are safe are not safe so what people have to decide is what risks do they want to take so if you own gold you risk the value of gold going down if you own dollars or pounds you risk the value of pounds going down now in my mind the odds of the dollar or the pound losing value are much greater than the odds of gold losing value now obviously you know in a very short time horizon a day a week or month then maybe the odds are greater that gold loses value than dollars or pounds

1:17:13 but as you go into a longer time horizon i think the overwhelming odds favor gold after all the supply of gold is increasing very slowly the supply of dollars or other currencies is increasing very rapidly and will likely increase even more rapidly in the future so you have a depreciating asset and now you have central banks that have told you right they're telling your parents we want our currency to lose value we want prices to go up we guarantee that you'll lose see your family wants you to guarantee that you won't lose money if you buy gold but the central banks the bank of england the federal reserve is already guaranteeing you that if you hold their currency you will lose money by design they want you to lose it's a sure thing if you hold fiat currency you are guaranteed to lose so if you don't want that if you don't want to lose your money for sure then you got to do something else with

1:18:13 it right and let them know hey gold is a much better alternative right and just look at the history just show them a history a long-term chart you know you have there's a long history of the of the pound right in terms of gold you can go back hundreds of years and you can see a beautiful long-term trend of the british pound losing value relative the goal so what do you think is that trend going to continue or is that trend going to change right i think a trend that's been going on for hundreds of years is likely to continue not change and if you want to bet on the trend continuing then you bet on gold if you think the trend is going to change then you can bet on the pound but if you look at what's been driving the pound and other currencies lower it's it's even more now right what governments and central banks were doing to destroy the value of their currencies they're doing more of it now

1:19:06 so now they're going to succeed in destroying even more value even quicker so the case for gold has never been stronger than it is right now next question is from europe do you have a real example of a successful country both for people and businesses that has a small government well look yes i mean you could look now at countries that have less government right look at singapore right look at hong kong or look at even countries that have gone from a lot of government to less government like new zealand right or look at countries where the countries have been split where you have the same culture the same people but you split it right look what happened when we had west germany and east germany right look at taiwan versus mainland china when mainland china was really communist or look at hong kong uh versus versus china look at north and south korea look at vietnam when you had you know

1:20:06 uh you have all these examples where you take a culture of people that are identical in every way and then you separate them and and one group has a socialist economy with more government and then one group has a freer economy with less government it's always the freer people that prosper the less government you have the more prosperous you are look at all these countries that rank really high in economic freedom they're the wealthy countries look at the countries that are at the bottom of the list when it comes to economic freedom they are among the poorest countries in the world so there is a direct relationship between the amount of government and the amount of wealth right the less government the more freedom the less government the more prosperous uh people are and then you can look at countries and you can look at how they've evolved countries have gone from a lot of government to less government

1:21:03 or from a little bit of government to a lot more government and they always do better when they have less government right so as they shrink government prosperity grows as they grow government prosperity shrinks uh and it's amazing how few people can learn such a simple lesson and that's because all the politicians they have a vested interest in not learning that lesson because they get elected promising more government promising something something for nothing so they ignore uh the lessons and have history and that's why we constantly repeat those mistakes okay i'm finally at the last question okay um do you think the government will ever enact executive order 6102 again if gold silver prices rise is it possible the government will confiscate gold again and what recourse should we do what will that do to gold mining stocks look i mean obviously there is a lot of uh concern about government confiscation

1:22:02 uh roosevelt did it in 1933 but first of all again you got to remember why roosevelt confiscated gold roosevelt wanted to devalue the dollar because before roosevelt confiscated gold uh it was 20 uh dollars an ounce right so you need each ounce of gold you could buy an ounce of gold for 20 and roosevelt wanted to devalue the dollar but before he could do that he had to get everybody's gold so the executive order everybody turn in your gold right and if you're a patriot you're going to turn in your gold now some people didn't turn in their gold nothing really happened to them right it was kind of like an honor system yes there were penalties criminal penalties for not turning in your goal but look you know there are people like if there's gun control there are people that don't turn in their guns they don't want to turn them in and now they're a law breaker so there were law breakers who resisted uh really an

1:23:02 unconstitutional order uh to surrender their goal but once roosevelt took all the gold then he devalued the dollar and now all of a sudden you needed 35 to get an ounce of gold right so the the impetus for the seizure was the devaluation now the government doesn't have to do that anymore we're not on a gold standard the dollar has no value so they could just print as many as they want so the reasons that existed to confiscate gold in 1933 don't exist today uh so gold will not be confiscated again for the reasons that it was confiscated back then now that doesn't mean it won't happen it just wouldn't happen for the same reason now a reason that the government might seize gold would be the dollar is crashing right i mean the dollar is collapsed there's hyperinflation it's basically worthless right and so now no matter how much money the government prints they can't buy anything with it right

1:24:09 so now the government needs real money they need foreign exchange they need gold right because they you know they got to pay the workers they got to pay the soldiers right whatever so maybe they seize your gold because they're broke it's like a national emergency and they're kind of requisitioning your property they're seizing your property but if the government resorts to seizing property they probably won't just seize gold they'll probably seize other assets i mean they'll probably seize your bank accounts especially if they're in foreign currencies they'll seize those they might seize other assets they might start seizing stocks because gold is hard to find right the the easiest thing for the government to seize is the stuff that it can easily get at right the stuff in your bank accounts the stuff in your brokerage accounts that's easy to seize they can take that whenever they want seizing the gold that you have stored in

1:25:03 your house that's hard to get because what if you don't turn it in see they can easily get the banks to give them your foreign deposits they can get brokerage firms to give them your stocks because hey i mean they don't give a damn it's not their money they just do whatever the government says the government says hey give us all the stocks in this brokerage account where do you want to send i mean they all these businesses do everything the government says if they don't the government shuts them down right uh so it's actually going to be harder to seize your gold now if you have your gold stored with a third party then they might be able to get the third party to turn it over but if you have the gold yourself they're not going to get it unless you give it to them which you how they're going to make you do it how are they going to know that you have it right there are they going to send government troops to everybody's house

1:25:50 to shake you down and see if you have gold i mean even if they had a record that you bought it they don't know that you still have it it's gone i lost it i gave it away i spent whatever i mean i don't know i don't have it anymore you know uh and they're not even gonna have you know when you buy gold i mean all these gold companies they're not required to keep records it's not like a securities firm i mean there aren't a lot of records you go to ship gold you buy some gold i mean you know we don't have to keep records of what you bought we're supposed to keep records of what you sell because we're supposed to tell the government something's been sold i think and here you know we paid out money to so and so but when you just buy some gold coins you're not required to report that i mean there's no record and that's you know people go into coin shops you know they can they go in they buy a gold coin there's no

1:26:35 record they walk out they you know it's like you're buying a product right when you're buying gold you're buying a product it's like going to a grocery store and buying food they don't you know the government doesn't they don't have to report uh that you bought these items so when you make a purchase when you purchase some gold i mean you just bought something uh so the reality is seizing gold is going to be a lot more difficult than a lot of other assets that are going to be the low hanging fruit that the us government might seize and they might look we could have exchange controls the government can do all sorts of things when there's a monetary crisis see right now they don't have to they just print money right because the money they're printing still buys things the dollar hasn't fallen yet so they don't need our taxes they don't need our assets they can keep printing money once the

1:27:19 money they're printing doesn't have any value anymore that's when they need our stuff and that's when you have to worry about the government season stuff but i think the thing that they're least likely to seize successfully is your gold now what would that mean to gold miners yeah if the government started seizing the gold from the mining companies uh yeah they can get the mines in the u.s they're not going to be able to seize the gold that's mined in canada or the golden mine in central america or australia or anyplace else so yes that could potentially put the deposits of gold mining companies in the u.s at risk right which is why i think the political risk in the united states is being understated right somebody asked a question earlier about uh you know should you invest in mines that are in countries that don't have swap lines with the u.s federal reserve you know because of the political risk i

1:28:11 think that there's a lot of political risk in the united states not just for gold companies but for all companies right because when you know they can't just print money anymore they're going to start seizing stuff they're going to start nationalizing stuff and so there is a lot of political risk and all sorts of assets here in the united states anyway that's it for today's podcast have a great weekend everybody and i will be back again next week with more of the peter shift show podcast uh bye for now you

Questions about this episode

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Peter Schiff (Host).

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23 people, works and ideas are mentioned, including Federal Reserve, Gold, Peter Schiff, Gold Mining Stocks, Money Supply, QE4. Each one on this page links to its own page with every episode that mentions it.

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The episode runs 1 h 29 min; the transcript is about 16,290 words in 93 timestamped sections.

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