How This Country Overestimated Their Population by 7 Million People

What is discussed, and when

1. 0:00 – 3:00: Papua New Guinea, Corona virus, Mount Willam, Rio de Janeiro
2. 3:00 – 6:00: Papua New Guinea, United States Census Bureau
3. 6:00 – 7:06: Brilliant

Notable quotes from "How This Country Overestimated Their Population by 7 Million People"

• Graphic designers call it, is really, really hard. So hard that at one point the government's official estimates range from about 9 million all the way to about 17 million.…

  about Papua New Guinea · at 0:27

• Jacob. By the time 2020 came around for the next census, not only had Team Jacob been vanquished, but a certain novel Corona virus was making census taking pretty hard to do…

  about Corona virus · at 1:25

• Track of every birth and death and then report it in hopes of having accurate numbers. Finally, with the help of Australia, the United States Census Bureau, and the United…

  about United States Census Bureau · at 5:21

• Smart people to come up with new ways to adapt to our changing world. Everyone is a math person in some way, but Brilliant can help you actually transform into a person who's…

  about Brilliant · at 6:21

Who and what is mentioned in this episode?

Companies & orgs

• United States Census Bureau — Company · Referenced expert · 1 mention · first at 5:27
  Assisted in the 2024 census efforts in Papua New Guinea.
• Brilliant — Company · Referenced product · 2 mentions · first at 6:24
  Promoted as a tool for improving math skills through interactive learning.

Concepts & topics

• Corona virus — Concept · Referenced concept · 1 mention · first at 1:31
  The pandemic complicated census efforts in Papua New Guinea.
• Team Jacob — Concept · Referenced concept · 1 mention · first at 1:24
  Used humorously to highlight the outdated nature of the last census.
  But that was a long time ago. For context, that was the year Twilight came out. But weirdly, the census didn't ask how many of those 7 million were Team Jacob. By the time 2020…

Places & events

• Papua New Guinea — Place · Core topic · 2 mentions · first at 0:52
  The episode discusses the challenges of conducting a census in Papua New Guinea, highlighting its unique geographical and cultural barriers.
• Mount Willam — Place · Referenced location · 1 mention · first at 1:39
  Mentioned as a geographical barrier affecting census efforts in Papua New Guinea.
  First, there's this Mount Willam. At 14,793 feet or 45,59 meters, it's the tallest peak in PNG and arguably the tallest Noania, though we don't have.
• Rio de Janeiro — Place · Referenced location · 1 mention · first at 0:40
  Used as a comparison for the population uncertainty in Papua New Guinea.
  To about 17 million. That's a huge margin of error. That 8 million that might or might not be there is more people than live in Rio de Janeiro. Not a trivial amount of…
• Gatlinburg, Tennessee — Place · Referenced location · 1 mention · first at 0:20
  Used as a comparison point for population knowledge.
  I know how many people live in Gatlinburg, Tennessee. But it turns out getting an accurate headcount in Papa New Guinea, or PNG as the cool kids and graphic designers call it, is really,.

Full transcript with timestamps

0:00 Knockk knockock. It's me, Sam. The YouTube thing didn't really work out, so I'm a freelance census taker now. How many people live at this address? Got it. And while we're chatting, how many people live in Papa New Guinea? Wait, you don't know? I've been asking everyone and nobody seems to know, which feels a little odd. I mean, I know how many people live in the United Kingdom. I know how many people live in Gatlinburg, Tennessee. But it turns out getting an accurate headcount in Papa New Guinea, or PNG as the cool kids and graphic designers call it, is really, really hard. So hard that at one point the government's official estimates range from about 9 million all the way to about 17 million. That's a huge margin of error. That 8 million that might or might not be there is more people than live in Rio de Janeiro. Not a trivial amount of uncertainty. So why is it so hard to know how many people

0:48 live in PNG? And why now do we believe there to be about 10 million people there? This is Papua New Guinea. It's not this Guinea or these Guiney's or these Guiney's or even this Papua. Until 2024, they hadn't taken a census since 2011, even though like most countries, they try to do one every 10 years. The 2011 census, which was disputed and considered unreliable by some because the census takers weren't that good at their jobs, put Papo Nug Guini's population at 7,275,324. But that was a long time ago. For context, that was the year Twilight came out. But weirdly, the census didn't ask how many of those 7 million were Team Jacob. By the time 2020 came around for the next census, not only had Team Jacob been vanquished, but a certain novel Corona virus was making census taking pretty hard to do, especially in Papa New Guinea. Here are just a few reasons that it's hard to take a census there.

1:39 First, there's this Mount Willam. At 14,793 feet or 45,59 meters, it's the tallest peak in PNG and arguably the tallest Noania, though we don't have time for that argument. Now, from this peak, all things flow and roughly 3/4 of the country is mountainous. That means it's very hard to get through it and around it. Around here, you can't exactly do the sort of walking door to door census taking that I'm doing right now. Second, about the same amount of the country that's mountainous is also rural with 80% classified this way. In parts of Papa New Guinea, like the western province, the population density is low, averaging just three people per square mile, one person per square kilometer. Hello. Those rural communities are indigenous and diverse with more than 800 languages officially spoken among them. Meaning that across the country, there are pockets of people separated by rugged terrain, not always

2:30 aware of another pocket of people just over the ridge. And on top of that physical barrier, if they did come into contact or know about each other, there'd also be a language barrier. Third, with a lot of census taking practices in countries like the US or Australia, which bankrolls the paponugini census, the method really relies on counting all the people in a household. In a typical census in countries with the tools and money to do so, they send a form that they beg you to fill out. And for those that didn't, people called enumerators go doortodoor and kiss every person in the house on the forehead or whatever to count them.

3:00 But when people don't live in houses, going doortodoor is tough. To get around this obstacle, PNG officials turned to the most responsible and trusted source on the planet, computers. Instead of doing a proper census in 2021, they did a genensis. That wasn't an official census, but more of a study where computers guess the number of people. This is in fact not the first time the United Nations population study has developed this technique that includes satellite modeling, housing data, and household surveys because there are other rural places in the world besides Papo New Guinea. to build population models for these kind of studies and hard to guess the number of people places. Satellite imagery can actually pinpoint the number of structures in rural areas and then assign a number of estimated residents based on previous population studies and censuses. There was just one big problem with the results when they

3:45 did the genenses. It placed the population at 17 million, which is more than double what most officials estimated it to be. If you've ever hosted a party with a bunch of surprise plus ones, you know why this is a problem. But on a national scale, the consequences are worse than oops, we need to buy more ice. At the top of the list, an 8 million person overcount would mean that the country is much poorer than officials thought. Having its per capita income from 3,230 to about 1,770 a year. And sure, numbers on paper might not mean that much, but they have real consequences for the residents who aren't being counted. Basically, being left off the list means they aren't getting healthcare, they aren't getting education, they aren't getting infrastructure, and they surely aren't voting on the issues that could impact them. Governments need real numbers of people to provide these services and account for how to build

4:32 things like bridges and hospitals. For example, if the government thinks there are 5,000 people in a province and there's one doctor to take care of them all, that doctor is already busy. But if there are in reality 10,000 people in that province, then that doctor is too busy. That doctor is going to burn out. that doctor is going to mix you up with your brother and give you his apamctomy and give him your antibiotics and then we'll all be sorry. In turn, residents aren't really even part of a country when they're absent from records. So, when officials got this draft from the Gensus, they were displeased. The results from the study were leaked to a newspaper in Australia, but they dropped such a bomb that Papa New Guinea placed a gag order on the initial findings and pulled the Ereak. The United Nations revised the number in 2023 and started to come up with ways to count people that didn't involve cameras in the sky.

5:16 In rural villages, one of those methods was ward record books, which means they paid people in villages to keep track of every birth and death and then report it in hopes of having accurate numbers. Finally, with the help of Australia, the United States Census Bureau, and the United Nations, Papo Nini committed to an official orchestrated census from June to October in 2024. They used the traditional methods by counting people on tablets and came up with a real number that everyone mostly agrees on. 10,185,363. That means the population still grew by 40% since 2011, but wasn't nearly close to the 129% increase that scared people. And so finally, we have a solidly accurate agreed upon picture of how many people live in Papua New Guinea for now. Anyways, in 5 years, who knows what'll happen. Anyway, thanks for chatting. I should probably move on to the next house. My supervisor says I need to stop doing five minutes of fun

6:08 facts at every door. But I think the best part of being a census taker. Oh, okay. Bye. But wait, one more thing. Counting every person in the world, as I found out, is actually very hard. It takes a lot of smart people to come up with new ways to adapt to our changing world. Everyone is a math person in some way, but Brilliant can help you actually transform into a person who's better at math. Some of the ways that it does this is visual interactive problem solving and personalized practices. One that was curated for me was exploring data visually, which helps me learn to create information that I can share with you through graphics. If you want to learn how to do that right now for free, head to brilliant.org/h ai or click the link in the description. Brilliance has also given hi viewers 20% off an annual premium subscription, giving you unlimited access to everything on Brilliant every day. So, if you

6:56 want to get even smarter, get that. Thanks.

Questions about this episode

What is discussed in "How This Country Overestimated Their Population by 7 Million People"?

In order: 0:00 Papua New Guinea, Corona virus, Mount Willam, Rio de Janeiro; 3:00 Papua New Guinea, United States Census Bureau; 6:00 Brilliant.

What is mentioned in this Half as Interesting episode?

8 people, works and ideas are mentioned, including Papua New Guinea, Corona virus, United States Census Bureau, Brilliant, Mount Willam, Rio de Janeiro. Each one on this page links to its own page with every episode that mentions it.

How long is "How This Country Overestimated Their Population by 7 Million People"?

The episode runs 7 min; the transcript is about 1,448 words in 10 timestamped sections.

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