The TRUTH About the Complicated Geopolitical Situation in Iran and Why Trump is Right To Be Cautious

What this episode is about

The geopolitical situation in Iran is complex and differs significantly from other authoritarian regimes, as it relies on an entrenched system involving collective power rather than a single leader. The Islamic Republic's governance structure, established after the 1979 revolution, is highly resilient and suggests that any potential changes might lead to a future state that resembles Pakistan's model, where real power is wielded by military and intelligence entities rather than elected officials.

Key takeaways

• Iran's power structure isn't a monarchy; it's a complex web of institutional interests, not just one leader.
• Predicting Iran's future is like playing 'Deal or No Deal'—no options look promising behind those closed doors.
• Don't confuse protesters' desires with Western ideals; many seek reform, not a Manhattan-style revolution.
• Stable regimes can survive leadership change; Iran's system is a resilient network, not a single point of failure.
• U.S. interventions often have ulterior motives—democracy isn't always the goal; consider the geopolitics behind the curtain.

Who speaks in this episode?

• Megyn Kelly (Guest) · 10 min speaking
• Yashar Ali (Guest) · 4 min speaking
• Glenn Greenwald (Guest)
• Mark Tissson (Guest)

What is discussed, and when

1. 0:00 – 3:00: Yashar Ali, Deep State, Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist, Ayatollah Khamenei
2. 3:00 – 6:00: Glenn Greenwald, Democracy
3. 6:00 – 9:00: Democracy, AEI
4. 9:00 – 12:00: Butler
5. 12:00 – 14:43: Birch Gold Group

Notable quotes from "The TRUTH About the Complicated Geopolitical Situation in Iran and Why Trump is Right To Be Cautious"

• Here's Yashar Ali, who I definitely trust on his Iran reporting. he's he's posting the following. Once again, I'm making no predictions, but so many of you need to be reminded that the.

  about Yashar Ali · at 0:00

• E Faki, forgive the pronunciation. I'm sure it's wrong. Which means guardianship of the Islamic jurist is in its final years. I have little doubt about that. That said, I…

  about Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist · at 1:19

• Boob. And other times it would be a new car and it would be totally sick. And what I'm gleaning is we have no idea what's behind door number one, two, or three. But so far…

  about Deal or No Deal · at 2:51

• Believe that the reason we're intervening in places like Venezuela or Iran is because our government is just pro-democracy and just really wants to help these people who want…

  about Democracy · at 5:08

• But you also have to listen to Mark Tissson of AEI who I love and adore and made a star on Fox News who's on totally the other side.

  about AEI · at 6:17

• Sickening threat against President Trump Wednesday, broadcasting a picture of the commander-in-chief during the 2024 Butler rally assassination attempt with the words, This…

  about Butler · at 9:31

• There are forces pushing the dollar lower right now and gold higher, which is why they believe every American should own physical gold. So, until January 30th, if you are a…

  about Birch Gold Group · at 13:45

Who and what is mentioned in this episode?

People

• Yashar Ali — Person · Referenced expert/source · 2 mentions · first at 0:00
  His posts are used to frame Iran as an institutionalized system rather than a one-man regime and to speculate about a potential post-clerical model resembling Pakistan's security-state structure.
• Glenn Greenwald — Person · Referenced commentator / skeptic voice · 2 mentions · first at 4:56
  Cited as a skeptical counterweight on foreign intervention, arguing that stated pro-democracy motives often conceal other interests.
  Glenn, our mutual friend, Glenn Greenwald, was making the point because, he's very, very skeptical of all of these foreign interventions. and he was making the point that, he was a little sharper on it, but basically, if you.
• Ayatollah Khamenei — Person · Referenced leader/symbol · 1 mention · first at 0:45
  Mentioned to argue that removing a single figure would not dismantle Iran's system because power is institutional and backed by many protected elites.
  Sha to survive leadership changes and internal crisis. I keep seeing people saying take the Ayatollah out or suggesting doing to Ayatollah Kamei what was done to Maduro. Kamei…

Companies & orgs

• AEI — Company · Referenced institution (policy viewpoint source) · 1 mention · first at 6:17
  Mentioned as the affiliation of Mark Thiessen, representing an opposing foreign-policy perspective to Glenn Greenwald's skepticism.

Concepts & topics

• Democracy — Concept · Contested justification / core theme · 3 mentions · first at 5:14
  Discussed as a public-facing rationale for interventions that may mask alternate agendas (oil, alliances), and as part of Americans' self-conception that can be exploited.
• Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist — Concept · Core doctrine referenced · 1 mention · first at 1:24
  Identified as Iran's governing doctrine (Velayat-e Faqih) and discussed as potentially nearing its end, shaping speculation about what replaces it.
• Deep State — Concept · Analytical concept / forecasted governance model · 1 mention · first at 1:45
  Used in Yashar Ali's analysis to describe a potential Iranian future where real power lies in security services and economic networks outside public accountability.
  Exist, but real power is concentrated in a powerful military intelligence deep state. a true deep state, not what people imagine here, rooted in the security services, intel…
• Military Intelligence — Concept · Forecasted power center · 1 mention · first at 1:45
  Presented as the likely locus of real power in a post-clerical Iran model, tied to security services, intel apparatus, and economic networks.
  Former formal civilian institutions exist, but real power is concentrated in a powerful military intelligence deep state. a true deep state, not what people imagine here…

Places & events

• Butler — Place · Event location reference · 3 mentions · first at 9:34
  Referenced as the site of the 2024 rally assassination attempt against Trump, used in discussing Iranian threats and alleged plots.

Media & podcasts

• Deal or No Deal — Media · Analogy device · 1 mention · first at 2:23
  Used as a metaphor for uncertainty about outcomes ('doors 1, 2, 3') regarding Iran and intervention choices.

Sponsors

• Birch Gold Group — Company · Sponsor/advertiser · 2 mentions · first at 13:37
  Appears in an ad segment promoting buying physical gold and rolling retirement accounts into a gold IRA with a rebate offer.

Full transcript with timestamps

0:00 Here's Yashar Ali, who I definitely trust on his Iran reporting. Um, he's he's posting the following. Once again, I'm making no predictions, but so many of you need to be reminded that the Islamic Republic of Iran is not like the Hussein regime in Iraq, the Gaddafi regime, or the Assad regime in Syria. It is not based on hereditary succession, nor is it based on one man or even several men. The Islamic Republic, which controls huge chunks of the Iranian economy, is a vast enterprise involving many people who have a vested interest in remaining in power. While the Supreme Leader enjoys absolute power, authorities exercised through an entrenched system that was deliberately designed after the 1979 deposing of the Sha to survive leadership changes and internal crisis. I keep seeing people saying take the Ayatollah out or suggesting doing um to Ayatollah Kamei what was done to Maduro. Kamei is 86

0:53 years old. There are many many many men who are wellprotected and who hold enormous power standing behind him. This is a deeply institutionalized and resilient system of power. Again, I make no predictions, but many of your favorite commentators keep framing this as being about one man, and that simply is not true. In one follow-up post he made, the current governing doctrine of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Velat E Faki, forgive the pronunciation. I'm sure it's wrong. Which means guardianship of the Islamic jurist is in its final years. I have little doubt about that. That said, I strongly suspect, and some other Iran watchers do as well, that what follows will likely be a system more closely resembling Pakistan's model, a state in which former formal civilian institutions exist, but real power is concentrated in a powerful military intelligence deep state. a true deep state, not what people imagine here, rooted in the

1:53 security services, intel apparatus, and economic networks that operate largely outside public accountability. He says all of that would mean that coercive power would remain firmly entrenched within the state's military and intel institutions, preserving authoritarian control through different means. Again, underscoring that he's not making firm predictions. He says anyone who does, by the way, has no idea what they're talking about. that boy that does a great job of explaining like you know back when I was a kid in the 70s Emily they used to show this program which you've probably heard of called Deal or No Deal and you'd the guy would come out and there'd be three doors and you'd get a big prize. He'd give you something to bargain with that you didn't have when you showed up. And then he'd show you like you have door one, two, and three.

2:37 And maybe he'd open one door and it would be like a new bedroom set. And you could keep the bedroom set plus the little prize you had in your pocket. Or you could go for what was behind door number two or door number three. And sometimes it would be just a complete boob. And other times it would be a new car and it would be totally sick. And what I'm gleaning is we have no idea what's behind door number one, two, or three. But so far, like what I'm neither one neither option seems like the Lamborghini,

3:06 right? And the one thing, as Yashar puts it there, that just about everybody who's honest should agree on is that we do not know. We don't know. And anybody who is lacking the humility to admit that I think you should be treating them with suspicion uh because they probably have been wrong in the past time and again. The only thing that we can know right now is that the situation is obviously deeply uncertain and that should be frightening uh because we've gone into a whole lot of situations in the last 50 years but even just the last 20 years pretty confident that we had everything under control and then everything ends up spiraling. exactly out of control. So, it's it's tough because nobody wants to see what happens to the people of Iran. One of the points that Yeshar made there is it's not just about one man. It's the same thing in a place like Cuba or actually in a place like Venezuela. It's not just about

4:00 Maduro. It's not just about Castro or who's in charge of Cuba right now or who's in charge of Iran right now. It's about the fact that they still have supporters also inside of the country and even the people who don't support them don't necessarily still support the US either. It's not as though you have people on the streets of Iran saying turn us into Manhattan. Maybe some of them would love that. Maybe some people would like to get out of Iran and go to Manhattan, but that's not the sentiment that is animating these protests universal universally. And to act like it is, again, anybody who's doing that should be treated with deep suspicion.

4:35 Well, I think the problem for us in analyzing this as Americans is we we have freedom in our blood. We really do. I mean, it's in our DNA. And so, we're like, "Fuck yeah, let's do it. They want they want to be free and we want to help them. We're the United States of America. a. Sorry." But I think that that's how most of us feel in our hearts. And, you know, Glenn, our mutual friend, Glenn Greenwald, was making the point because, you know, he's very, very skeptical of all of these foreign interventions. and he was making the point that, you know, he was a little sharper on it, but basically, if you believe that the reason we're intervening in places like Venezuela or Iran is because our government is just pro-democracy and just really wants to help these people who want democracy in Iran, he's got a bridge to sell you. You know, it's about, for example, the oil in a place like Venezuela and possibly

5:25 in Iran, too, or about backing a strong ally, Israel, uh, in some places in the Middle East. So, you know, he his urging is to always consider the alternate agenda that the government is not laying on the line with us while it tries to like tap our serotonin by wrapping itself in the flag and being like, "America, our military, go." Because I think we're all very susceptible to that. You know, it's only now truly, as I've said after the Venezuela thing in my career that I've finally been through enough of these that I'm like, "Let's slow our roll. I don't want that serotonin receptor tapped. I want to analyze this much more soberly, taking into account what the risks are the way I'm sure President Trump is doing.

6:10 Yes. This is why we keep our commie friends like Glenn around. Sometimes we have to uh take him take him seriously.

6:17 But you also have to listen to Mark Tissson of AEI who I love and adore and made a star on Fox News who's on totally the other side.

6:24 Yeah. And I think there are some people who are frustrated that others are listening to both. like maybe that people like you and I are listening to both and taking this seriously and I think part of the reason is that there's less control like the gatekeepers obviously have so much less control. You were talking about Fox News last week and it is sort of remarkable to now have the contrast between new media and old media as it's happening uh because you just get the split screen. And the good news about new independent media is that there is this uh kind of cacophony of different opinions and people who you know if you respect your audience you know they're smart enough. They're just as smart if not smarter than most of us.

7:04 they can make up their minds uh about what's happening on their own if you present all of the different viewpoints fairly. And I think one of the things happening right now is that people are just so able to see through the propaganda and the spin. That said, well-intentioned people are still swayed by propaganda and spin because there are spin doctors within the foreign policy establishment who are experts at this and also in other like foreign countries that are trying to exploit the American people and pray on the American people and uh exploit the goodwill towards freedom and democracy that Americans genuinely have. And so you see though more easily the minations of that now.

7:42 And I kind of think that's what's making a difference. And that's why we've seen Trump himself again he pushed back on DOP's thousands and thousands number last night which was very interesting on CBS and has uh kind of dismissed PIV. So there's interesting interesting stuff happening right now.

8:00 It's good. It's good he's got the other side in in his ear and I do believe President Trump will make a judicious decision. I don't think he's a hotthead when it comes to this. I mean, he really really takes pride in ending these wars. And it's not all about the Nobel Peace Prize. Yes, he's Trump, so he wants the Nobel Peace Prize, okay? Like, we all know that's part of his character makeup. But I I think he genuinely abhores war and the random killing of people, the unnecessary taking of lives. And I don't think he's going to do that in Iran or elsewhere if he doesn't think it really endures to the benefit of the United States. I genuinely believe that, but I would love an explanation. You know, I I really I hope it's better and more wholesome than we got after Venezuela, which really just he never really fully explained it. It was like the explanation kept changing, you know.

8:48 First it was like the democracy thing and then it was like the oil which he was kind of explicit about and it kind of kept moving. Then it was they tried to sell it as like a legal operation which was really just the hook they they used to be able to do it without congressional approval. Anyway, I this is too scary to do without like a full explanation of what our plan is, what our objectives are, why we're going to do this, you know, because again, none of this was run on, you know, President Trump did not run on intervening in a Middle Eastern country like Iran. And you know, there's going to be a lot of hesitancy about that one here. This just in from the New York Post. Iran issued a sickening threat against President Trump Wednesday, broadcasting a picture of the commander-in-chief during the 2024 Butler rally assassination attempt with the words, "This time, it will not miss the target." The ominous warning was

9:45 aired on Iranian staterun TV. Um, it marks Thrron's most direct threat yet against Trump following his repeated threats that the US will strike the country if it continues its brutal crackdown on anti-government protesters. Um, do they have a death wish? Like why would they do that? Like my first thought is like did they actually do that? Because that seems like the dumbest most You're not allowed to use the word but that's the word that comes to mind. Um, thing that you could possibly do in the position that Iran is in. What are your thoughts on that? Well, uh, similar to yours and that everyone now remembers, there were, uh, there were reports that Iran around the time of the attempted assassination in Butler had also had a foiled assassination plot against Donald Trump.

10:32 So, if that's coming from uh, Iran, directly from government controlled entities in Iran right now, I actually think that raises us.

10:40 Just to be clear, it was reported by Ajance France Press AFP. So it sounds French media is reporting that it did air on Iranian staterun TV.

10:50 I mean that could be a a throwaway line or that could be genuinely worth digging into because of the proximity between that those two foiled assassination attempts. Well, the Butler one wasn't exactly foiled. I don't want to be giving uh American Intel or security too much credit there, but that's actually interesting just as I'm hearing it. Um, but if they if they really are pushing that, like you said, and they want to stay in power, boy, uh, they're putting, of course, their own people in more danger, as we know. And not that that's particularly a red line for them, but they're putting their own people in more danger. They're putting themselves in more danger because, uh, Megan, to your point, Trump does not like looking weak.

11:36 And I think even people who despise Donald Trump should think about how he's approaching this because one of the things he studied closely since the very beginning is how the Iraq war and the Afghanistan war went wrong for the Bush administration, for the Obama administration. He put himself on the other side of that. Um, and he does not want his legacy to be tainted by forever wars, especially after campaigning against them. So, he's not going to want a long entanglement by any means. And so, that I think opens up another like this. This is Trump does not want to look like he's being taunted by the by the regime in Iran and then has absolutely no response. So hopefully

12:21 remember remember the report before it broke after Venezuela but there was a report that and then Trump actually himself commented on it

12:29 that he was very annoyed by Nicholas Maduro's dancing like kind of making fun of Trump

12:37 and kind of like daring him to come get me and then you know next thing you know we did in this crazy military operation that had all sorts of tools uh according to what I read on the interwebs that people didn't know we had. Speaking of kinetic operations that don't necessarily involve a bomb. Um, and Nicholas Maduro is now sitting behind bars in New York City. So, Trump can be taunted into doing something he otherwise kind of wants to do anyway. I don't think like they could get him like you can't taunt him into like bombing London, but you know, these terrible leaders who deserve to go and like he's on the fence uh they they should keep their their damn mouths shut. uh as as uh Will Smith so so beautifully put it.

13:23 Keep a damn name out your damn mouth or how keep our president's name out of your damn mouth.

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Questions about this episode

Who speaks in "The TRUTH About the Complicated Geopolitical Situation in Iran and Why Trump is Right To Be Cautious"?

Megyn Kelly (Guest), Yashar Ali (Guest), Glenn Greenwald (Guest), Mark Tissson (Guest).

What is "The TRUTH About the Complicated Geopolitical Situation in Iran and Why Trump is Right To Be Cautious" about?

The geopolitical situation in Iran is complex and differs significantly from other authoritarian regimes, as it relies on an entrenched system involving collective power rather than a single leader. The Islamic Republic's governance structure, established after the 1979 revolution, is highly resilient and suggests that any potential changes might lead to a future state that resembles Pakistan's…

What is mentioned in this Megyn Kelly episode?

11 people, works and ideas are mentioned, including Yashar Ali, Democracy, Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist, Deep State, Glenn Greenwald, Ayatollah Khamenei. Each one on this page links to its own page with every episode that mentions it.

How long is "The TRUTH About the Complicated Geopolitical Situation in Iran and Why Trump is Right To Be Cautious"?

The episode runs 15 min; the transcript is about 2,707 words in 26 timestamped sections.

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