Year-End Special: My 2026 Economic and Market Forecasts

What is discussed, and when

1. 0:00 – 5:00: Silver, Dow Jones, Peter Schiff
2. 5:00 – 10:00: Silver, Chinese yuan
3. 10:00 – 15:00: Silver, Chinese yuan
4. 15:00 – 20:00: Silver
5. 20:00 – 25:00: Silver
6. 35:00 – 40:00: Silver, Dow Jones
7. 40:00 – 45:00: Silver

Notable quotes from "Year-End Special: My 2026 Economic and Market Forecasts"

• You are about to enter the Peter Schiff show.

  about Peter Schiff · at 0:20

• But anyway, the Dow Jones was bringing up the rear of the three major indexes.

  about Dow Jones · at 1:43

• Earlier this week, I think it was on Monday, silver, the star performer of the year, up just over $140%.

  about Silver · at 2:56

• We're at the beginning. And in fact, look what happened with the Chinese yuan. The dollar closed on the low of the year against the Chinese yuan or R&B just below 8 to1. The dollar's off about 5% year to date against the.

  about Chinese yuan · at 9:00

Who and what is mentioned in this episode?

People

• Peter Schiff — Person · 1 mention · first at 0:20

Concepts & topics

• Silver — Concept · 28 mentions · first at 2:59
• Dow Jones — Concept · 2 mentions · first at 1:43
• Chinese yuan — Concept · 2 mentions · first at 9:03

Full transcript with timestamps

0:02 You make no friends in the pits and you take no prisoners. One minute you're up half a million in soybeans and the next boom, your kids don't go to college and they've repossessed your family. Are you with me?

0:10 The revolution starts now. Starts now. We have to pass the bill so that you can uh find out what is in it.

0:18 TURN THOSE MACHINES BACK ON. You are about to enter the Peter Schiff show. Tell me the money.

0:25 If we lose freedom here, there's no place to escape to. This is the last stand on earth. The Peter Shiff Show is on.

0:31 I don't know when they decided that they wanted to make a virtue out of selfishness.

0:35 Your money, your stories, your freedom. The Peter Shift Show 2025. The markets closed a little over an hour ago and that's it for the year and I want to update everybody on what's kind of happened so far in the markets in 2025. It was another positive year for stocks. Although interesting uh tidbit, all the indexes closed in the red today and this is actually the fifth year in a row where the final trading day was down and that's actually a record that hasn't happened before. Uh but that hasn't stopped the bull market because stocks have been moving higher despite the fact that they end the year on a a sour note.

1:43 But anyway, the Dow Jones was bringing up the rear of the three major indexes. It rose 13% on the year. S&P 500 up 16.4% and the NASDAQ uh as the top gainer up 20.4% 4% and that is because again of the AI uh trade uh leading the markets you obviously have a bigger impact from tech on the NASDAQ and a bigger impact on the S&P than in the Dow. So it was technology that was the story for the stock market. Although the stock market was overshadowed by the precious metals market, gold rose by 64% [clears throat] on the year. It settled the year just above 4,300.

2:42 It hit a record high earlier this week. I think it was about 4,550. A little bit higher than that was the record before we had a pretty sharp $200 selloff. uh earlier this week, I think it was on Monday, uh silver, the star performer of the year, up just over $140%. Silver closed around $71 and an ounce last I I looked at it. That's about where it was. I'll double check it again. It's been it's been very volatile. In fact, silver got clobbered today. It was down over $5, I think, today for silver. Gold only down about 20 bucks. So, about a half a percent.

3:36 Silver down $4.60. So, it closed over 7150. So, it snapped back a little bit uh in the last hour or so of trade, down 6% on the day, but closing the year above 71 and a half. I think that probably means that the year-to- date gain uh was above 140% for silver. The high that silver hit this year was Sunday night. That was um just after well it had a big rally on Friday the day after Christmas Boxing Day. That's when silver sword closing above $79 on Friday last week. And then on Sunday night it almost traded as high as $84.

4:26 Got to 83 above 8350 before it had a violent correction. Part of that was I think caused by the futures exchanges. I think twice they raised the margin requirements on silver because of these outside uh you know swings that were you know not normal to see silver moving by so much in in in in just a trading day. But you know if you throw all that out and look at where silver ended up. It closed the year again above $70. Silver is still several dollars higher than it was when I did my last podcast before I left Puerto Rico for Christmas. But I did record a Xspace on Boxing Day on that Friday when silver closed above 79.

5:22 And we had a big rise too, record high in platinum. Palladium was up like 13 or 14%. I mean, it was a huge precious metals rally. In fact, it was a metals rally. Copper also rose to an all-time record high. So, it was metals just going up. But I recorded this spaces a space on X and I and I uploaded it to my YouTube channel. So, if you missed that, you can go back and watch it. It was about four hours. So, I broke it into two videos. So you got the first one which was about a half hour which was my introduction where I discussed what happened and then I took questions for about 3 and 1/2 hours. So you can listen to the entire thing. So I I don't need to rehash a lot of what I discussed at that at that point. But the significance is the rally and the breakout. We are now what $20 above 50. Right? That was the double top. We're now more than 40% above that. And I know a lot of people are now talking about a blowoff top.

6:31 They're trying to say that this is it for silver. And in fact, silver stocks didn't really gain very much. In fact, they barely rose at all on Friday. Then they got killed on Monday. You know, I was looking at the market yesterday and silver was up 15% on the month. Now, it's given up some of those gains today, but as of yesterday, when silver was up 15% on the month, silver stocks were not even up 2% on the month. So, silver stock investors have not been that enthusiastic about the recent rally, which to me is again bullish because we had the same uh situation happen with gold stocks in gold the whole way up, right? The gold stock investors were very skeptical of the gold rally. They kept expecting gold to collapse. Meanwhile, it just kept climbing that wall of worry. Well, most of the stories, the financial stories I've seen about silver are about, uh-oh, another blowoff top just like 1980,

7:34 just like 2011. Silver had a big spike and now it's dropped. And so, this is the end of the bull market. And again, I think this skepticism is very bullish for silver. I don't think the action over the past week looks anything like what we saw in 1980 or 2011. Now, if you go back to the 1980 blowoff, that was a 50x move. Silver went from a dollar an ounce to basically $50 an ounce in one decade. So that's 50 times. What's happened recently isn't even close to something like that. And of course, it ended with the Hunt brothers trying to corner the market and the Fed jacking interest rates up to 20%. The Fed is cutting interest rates right now and there is no Hunt brothers trying to corner anything. Uh so very different situation than what was going on in 1980.

8:41 Plus of course in 1980 the dollar was bottoming out after losing twothirds of its value. We had a major dollar bare market from 1970 to 1980 where the dollar got killed. That's not happening now. We're not at the end of a dollarbear market in 2025. We're at the beginning. And in fact, look what happened with the Chinese yuan. The dollar closed on the low of the year against the Chinese yuan uh or R&B just below 8 to1. The dollar's off about 5% year to date against the the Chinese yuan. But I think the market for the dollar looks much weaker for 2026.

9:25 So, we're going to get a weakening dollar, which again is very different than what we had in the 1980s when we had a strengthening dollar because those high interest rates pulled a lot of money into the US dollar. Well, now the Fed is going to be cutting interest rates. And not only is the Fed cutting interest rates, it just went back to quantitative easing, even though it hasn't officially acknowledged that that's what it's doing because it's pretending that QE is not QE. But, you know, it doesn't matter what they want to pretend. I don't care what they say.

9:57 I look at what they do. And so, it's a very different situation. And by the way, the fact that the Chinese yuan is so strong this year proves that China is not eating our tariffs, which is exactly what Donald Trump promised. Because if you go back and listen to the rhetoric, the reason that they claimed that China was going to eat our tariffs was because the Chinese currency was going to drop substantially. And so it was going to be a strong dollar and a weak one that was going to enable uh China to eat the tariffs. But the the Chinese currency has gone up, not down. So, not only are China the Chinese not eating our tariffs, but we have to pay our tariffs in addition to the weak dollar adding another 5% in the FX on top of the tariffs. Um, you know, so China is winning this trade war. And by the way, yes, Chinese exports to the US are down about I think 30% or something like that um this year. So

11:08 yeah, you know, China is selling less products to America. Why? Well, because Americans can't afford to buy them as much because the prices have gone up. Obviously, if the price of Chinese goods had not gone up, then you wouldn't see a big decline in exports to the United States. The only thing that explains why Americans are buying fewer Chinese products is because they're more expensive. That's why we're buying fewer Chinese products, right? we're, you know, so we're either buying products from someplace else or we're not buying products at all. But meanwhile, the Chinese are selling most products.

11:44 They're exports are actually up on the year because they're selling more products to other countries than they are to the United States. So they're they're fine, right? They they produce all these products uh and they're able to sell them to other customers who aren't burdened by having to pay a tariff. [snorts] But all of this is going to show up, I think, in a much greater degree in the CPI next year. But I'm going to get to that in a bit. Let me just go back to where I was on on silver. So, what we've seen uh in the last week doesn't look anything like 1980. So, you can't go back and say, "Yeah, this is another blowoff top just like then, and now silver is going to be in a bare market for 20 years." It's not going to happen. number one. Now, looking at a more recent example of silver having a big move up was 2011 when it almost got to 50. It didn't quite get there. It got up to what 47ish, 48, but that rally also started

12:49 in the year 2000, 1990. It was another 10-year move. Silver started around four bucks. So, silver went up more than 10x before it had that big surge. Also, the significance of that surge was that it encountered resistance at $50. So, it didn't break through the prior high. That's why it pulled back, but it also had a tenfold gain. Now, the most recent rally, if you really want to trace where the rally began, I think it began when silver broke above 30. And so, the move from 30 to 80 was not even quite a triple. But more significant, the move didn't stop at the $50 resistance. It paused there, but then it blew through 50 and went all the way up to 84. That is a massive breakout. This is not a blowoff top.

13:56 This is a breakout of huge resistance that goes back to 1980. This is very significant technical action. The fact that we've pulled back to 70 doesn't negate the significance of the breakout above 50. And what I think is even better for people buying silver right now because if you were looking at $70 silver a couple of weeks ago, people might have been afraid to buy the top. I don't want to buy 70 because it's going to could go back down to 50. Well, now if you're buying $70 silver, $71 silver, you're not buying the top. The top was 84. We've had a significant correction in the silver market and it's still above 70. So the correction is already out of the way. It's not like there's a correction coming. It already came. And in fact, I think now the support for silver is around 70. It's not 50. It's 70. Right? 50 is gone. The opportunity to buy $50 silver doesn't exist anymore.

15:09 And that is the reason that I was pounding the table to buy silver way before it got to 50. I was telling everybody on my podcast that once we went through 50, we were going to make a quick move up to 100. And my forecast was $100 silver by next year. And we're certainly on track to get there, finishing this year above 70. You know, I mentioned this too on MySpace, but I'll mention it again because it was really ridiculous because I was watching uh CNBC on that uh Boxing Day morning and I'm watching Squawkbox and Steve Leeman, who's the senior economics reporter, they're, you know, they're they're pointing out Gold and Silver and they're kind of laughing about how much they're up and how much they're up on the year.

15:59 And then Steve Leeman says, "Yeah, you know, nobody saw this coming. I I can't think of a single person who is pounding the table to buy gold or silver at the beginning of the year. Yeah, he can't think of a single person because none of the guests on CNBC were smart enough to be pounding that table, but I was pounding it as loud as I could. See, the problem is Steve Leeman blocks me on X, so he hasn't seen any of my posts. And I guess he doesn't uh listen to my podcast, so he doesn't realize that I and other people. He just couldn't think of those other people were in fact pounding the table. I was pounding it.

16:35 In fact, I literally said, "I'm pounding the table to buy gold and silver." And I, you know, all all year from the end of last year when a lot of people were bearish because of the election of Donald Trump, people thought that Donald Trump's election was bearish for gold and silver. Uh because it was going to be great for the US economy, great for the dollar. It wasn't. The dollar went down. You know, it didn't crash, but it went down. Maybe it's going to crash in 2026. You know what everybody on CNBC was pounding the table on when the year began was Bitcoin. Ironically enough, right? Yeah. Every guest that came on CNBC was saying you got to buy Bitcoin. After all, we got a Bitcoin president. We got a Bitcoin strategic reserve. We got Micro Strategy or Strategy buying Bitcoin. We got all these new uh Bitcoin treasury companies. uh we've got all these ETFs. You can't lose, right? You got to buy Bitcoin. Bitcoin was one of

17:37 the only things that was down on the year. In fact, obviously, Bitcoin hasn't stopped trading yet because it trades until midnight tonight. As I'm looking at it, it's around 87,500. But I looked at where the Bitcoin ETFs closed uh because they're done for the year. and the Bitcoin ETFs were down just over 7 and a half% on the year even though the NASDAQ was up over 20% and gold was up over 64%. So, Bitcoin didn't go up with risk assets. It didn't go up with riskoff assets. It just went down when everybody expected it to go up. Now, if something doesn't go up when everybody thinks it's going to go up, that's a pretty good indication that it's going to go down, right? Because if a market doesn't react to good news, right? And you couldn't have gotten more good news than Bitcoin got. So, if a market can't go up on good news, that means all that good news is already priced into the market. So,

18:49 anything that can possibly be good is already factored into the Bitcoin price. And that means all that it can do is go down. And I think Bitcoin is going to have a much much weaker year in 2026 than it had in 2025. And a good indication of that is the performance of Strategy. So, Strategy stock closed the year making a new 52- week low. The low price of the year for strategy happened today. Strategy was down 47 a.5% on the year and it's 67 and 12% below its peak 52- week high. Now, strategy is not in the S&P 500, but if it was in the S&P 500, it would be the sixth worst performing stock in the entire index. So there only would have been five other stocks that would have gone down more than strategy.

19:54 Now this is the poster boy. This is, you know, hey, this is what everybody buys to get maximum leverage to Bitcoin. In fact, all year long, Michael Sailor is out there saying everybody's got to buy Bitcoin. Companies have to buy Bitcoin. The best thing you can do is buy Bitcoin. It's a guarantee. You're going to get 30% a year for the rest of time. Meanwhile, the only thing that Strategy did basically was buy Bitcoin. [clears throat] They borrowed and they they sold stock and issued preferred and convertible notes and they spent $50 billion buying Bitcoin and they got a stock performance that ranks them almost worst in the S&P 500. It was hard to fake, you know, lose 47 and a half percent in a stock in in 2025, but Micro Strategy or Strategy did just that. So, if Strategy did so bad buying Bitcoin in 2025, why should 2026 be any different?

20:59 Why should 2027 be any different? In fact, Micro Strategy or Strategy, I keep saying Micro Strategy has been buying Bitcoin now for over five years. The average price on all that Bitcoin over five years of buying is 75,000. We're at 87,000 in change. That's about a 16% gain, 3% a year over 5 years. What's so phenomenal about that strategy could have bought just about any other asset? Anything else? And it would have done better than buying Bitcoin. Yes, some of the Bitcoin it bought five years ago. Yeah, it's done pretty good on that Bitcoin, but you can't just look at that Bitcoin because he's been buying it for 5 years. You got to look at if he cashed out of his Bitcoin, if he sold everything, how much would he gain on the entire 5 years of investing? 15 or 16%. Now, of course, there's no way he could do that. This is a paper profit.

22:05 If Strategy actually tried to exit, there's no way it can get out for 75,000, right? So, if Strategy were to liquidate its entire Bitcoin portfolio, it would lose money. So, it certainly was the worst thing it could have done. Although, I guess there were some other crypto tokens that it could have bought that were worse uh than Bitcoin. But if you just look at Bitcoin as a proxy for crypto, as a asset class, it couldn't have done any worse, right? It's the worst possible asset class that you could have owned in in 2020 2025. But I think Micro Strategy is going to have much bigger problems in 2026. I think that's when all the leverage chickens uh come home to roost.

22:54 Uh that's when uh they're going to have to start depleting that Treasury reserve that they built up and Strategy is going to have to completely stop buying Bitcoin. It's still buying a little. It bought a little last week. Um, but it's going to have to completely give it up because they raised they sold stock to create a reserve of treasuries to cover their their commitments on interest in dividends. But if they blow through that reserve buying more collapsing Bitcoin, then what are they going to do? So, they're going to have to stop buying Bitcoin. And so, who's going to buy it?

23:30 If Strategy's not buying it, the other the other um companies aren't going to be buying it. The ETFs are selling now, right? Investors are cashing out. So, the ETFs, they've gone from big Bitcoin buyers to consistent Bitcoin sellers. Soon, they're going to be big Bitcoin sellers because I think a lot of the investors uh who put money were foolish enough to put money into these ETFs a year or two ago, they're going to look back, they're going to meet with their financial adviserss, and they're going to realize that this is bad deal. They're missing out on a lot of opportunities. Uh it's not just the money they're losing in Bitcoin, but the money they're not making in other assets. They they they've tied up uh their investment capital. They could be in the stock market. They could be in the precious metals market and they're not. And so they need to liquidate uh their Bitcoin in order to get into better performing

24:23 assets. And that is what's going to happen in 2026. So, what people should be doing, they're listening to uh this uh podcast, get rid of your Bitcoin above 87,000 or I mean, it's still a very high price and get into the breakout. Buy the breakout in in silver. I don't think gold's going back below 4,000. I mean, I think maybe 4,200 uh could be the support um in gold. Uh, but I think that we're not going to see gold below 4,000 uh in 2025. I think we're going to see it above 5,000. We may even get to 6,000 because in I mean 2026, excuse me, because 2026 is going to be a year of disappointment.

25:17 Everybody has been optimistic throughout all of 2025. Uh they think the economy is in great shape. It's not. They think that inflation is contained. It's not. Uh it's going to be like the year of of of Murphy, right? Murphy's law. Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Well, I think everything that can go wrong will go wrong in 2026. I think the bulls and the bears are going to be disappointed uh in what happens because we're going to get an economy that is weaker than is expected but inflation that is stronger.

26:00 Now all the people who think that the economy is going to be weak think that that means that there's not going to be inflation. So they're buying bonds, right? The people who think the economy is going to be strong think there may be uh a little bit higher inflation but you know they're buying growth stocks uh because they expect the economy to be strong. Both camps are going to be wrong. The economy is going to be weak. Inflation is going to be strong and that is a toxic combination and the Fed is going to look beyond the inflation numbers. It's going to rationalize them, justify them, explain them away. Plus, we've got uh Donald Trump's new handpicked guy that's going to be the new Fed chair midyear. It's an election year. They're going to be pulling out the stops. Uh the Republicans don't want to lose the House and the Senate, even though they probably will given how discouraged voters are going to be, right? They

27:03 voted for Trump because they thought he was part of the solution to their problem. But because the problems that he was elected to solve will all be worse come midterms, Trump goes from part of the solution to part of the problem. And now the Democrats can represent themselves as part of the solution. And I think it's going to resonate uh especially since uh the party in power almost always loses seats in a midterm, but especially when you have a weak economy. But not just a weak economy, but when the president promised the moon and delivered nothing. And in fact, what makes voters more angry is when they're being told how great the economy is and how dumb they are for not recognizing it, right? Because that's why Trump got elected in the first place. the media was trying to cram this narrative down the throats of the voters and so were the Democrats that the economy was good and they kept saying,

28:09 you know, there's a disconnect here between uh the polls, the voters and the economic data, right? The econ economic data is good uh but people are unhappy with the economy. And what I was pointing out was that the media had the disconnect wrong. The disconnect wasn't between the voters and the economy. It was between the data and the economy. The data was wrong. The economy was weak. The voters got it right. That's one of the few things that they get right because they know from their own experience what it's like, right? So, if their personal circumstances are getting worse, they know that, right? If they're deeper in debt, if they're having a harder time paying the bills, they know the economy is bad. They don't care what the government data says. They see with their own eyes what's happening. They go to the store. They go to the supermarket. They see the prices. They get the bills. They get their insurance,

29:11 their health insurance, their property insurance, their auto insurance. Uh they see the cost of living going up. They see they're working harder and have less to show for it. And then you're going to have Donald Trump saying it's an economic boom. This is we got the hottest economy in the world. we got the greatest economy and it's all thanks to me. Well, the voters are going to say, "No, thank you. If you're claiming credit for this economy, then I'm blaming you for my problems." Right? That's what's going to happen. Um, and you know, Donald Trump once again, just in the last couple days, not only was he talking about firing Pal, right? He said, "I want to fire Pal, but you know, I can't do it because, you know, he's only here for another six months." But he's also talked about filing a lawsuit against him. Like what's he gonna sue him for? He's gonna sue him because he didn't cut rates. That's the lawsuit.

30:02 Unless he's planning on suing him over the renovations or something like that. But, you know, he is just pounding and pounding on on Pal and and and what a horrible job he's doing because he's not cutting rates despite the fact that inflation is well above their so-called 2% target. But not only is it above target, it's headed higher. And at the same time that Donald Trump is demanding that the Fed slash interest rates despite high inflation, he's also claiming that we have the strongest economy in the history of the world.

30:42 Well, if that were true, if the economy were so strong, the Fed should heir on the side of being too tight, right? We have such a great economy. Then why can't we focus on the fact that inflation is above target? See, the only reason that Pal is saying that we're ignoring the high inflation is because we're so worried about the economy. So on the one hand, Donald Trump says there's nothing to worry about. The economy is great. On the other hand, the Fed has said we're worried so much about the economy that we're willing to overlook higher inflation and we're cutting interest rates anyway. So, which is it? Meanwhile, um um Trump is criticizing the Fed not because they're worried about the economy. He never brings that up. He just says, "Well, they should be cutting rates. They are cutting rates. They're just not cutting them as much as he wants." But he's the guy that says that everything is great. If the Fed was

31:45 actually full of governors who believe the economy was as strong as Trump claims, they'd be hiking rates. They would they'd have no excuse. The only reason that they're cutting them is because they know that the president is wrong and the economy is weak. The problem is it's actually a lot weaker than the Fed knows. Because I think if the Fed realized just how weak the economy is, they might be cutting interest rates even more now. Maybe maybe Donald Trump knows that. Maybe despite the fact that Trump is claiming that the economy is booming, he knows that it's on the precipice of a crash.

32:26 Maybe he knows that. Maybe that's why he has to lie so much about how strong it is to cover up from how weak he knows it is. And that's why he wants the Fed to be so loose is because he's hoping that slashing interest rates will prevent this economic crisis that maybe he realizes is around the corner. It is around the corner. I think we could have a major crisis in 2026 as this whole thing plays out because as inflation rears its head and the Fed continues to cut in a weakening economy and we see not only the impact of inflation [clears throat] on consumer prices but the delayed impact of tariffs because there is no way that tariffs are not going to filter through to the consumer, right? It's just impossible. The tariffs have to be paid. We know they're not being paid by foreigners, right? It's not external revenue, right? Donald Trump keeps repeating the lie that we are getting rich off of tariffs. We can't be getting

33:36 rich off of tariffs because we're paying the tariffs. We can't tax ourselves into prosperity. Now, if the government is getting rich off of tariffs, it's because Americans are going broke paying tariffs because that is the source of the tariff revenue. Now, I do believe that some of that tariff revenue may have been absorbed to a degree by exporters initially because, you know, they're hit by those tariffs right away and or the importers. Um but they're they're going to quickly quickly um you know realign uh their distributions to factor into these tariffs and Americans are going to bear the full burden. Now the burden will be split because not 100% of the costs will be passed on to the consumer. they will be absorbed by the the American seller. The company in America, the importer who is selling those products may take a hit to their margins to avoid passing on the full tariff to the customer, but that just

34:48 means lower corporate earnings, right? So, if the consumer doesn't pay it and the American business pays it, well, where's the American business going to get the money? How's it going to cover the added cost? Well, it can lay off some workers. It cannot make some investments that it might otherwise have made, cut back on other spending, but all of that is going to be born uh domestically by the US economy. So, a lot of stuff is going to be happening negative in 2026 leading up to the midterm elections in the fall of 2026. massive amounts of political pressure on the Fed to slash interest rates and to expand its quantitative easing program. I think not only is it going to expand the size of the program, but it is going to go out to longerdated maturities because the bond market end of the year, the yield on the 10-year is still north of 4%, north of 4.1%. The yield on the 30-year is not that far below five despite the

35:55 fact that we've had all these rate cuts. I think we're going to continue to see a lot of pressure on long-term yields, especially too when you look at what's happening where the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond ended the year above 2%. I think we're going to see a big rise in the 10-year uh JGB. In fact, I think sovereign credit all around the world in Europe and Asia is going to get more expensive. So, bonds worldwide are going to go down. This is a global bare market in bonds, pushing up yields, pushing up yields in the United States.

36:31 You know, next year the US national debt is going to go through $40 trillion as more downward pressure on treasuries. gold. Central banks are moving into gold in a big big way to get out of US treasuries. That trend is going to continue in 2026. It is going to accelerate. More central banks are going to get in on the action, meaning that central banks that haven't been buying gold are going to start. Those that have been buying gold are going to buy more. Now, silver has joined the precious metals party. So is platinum. So is platium. In fact, China recently just announced a ban now on exports of of silver. Uh so the supply and demand imbalances are going to continue to move in silver's favor. I think the shorts that are still in this market are still in a lot of trouble. Uh so you have this big precious metals bull market that's now launching into a whole new leg. uh where we're just going to see consistent

37:35 gains, I think, in gold and silver prices that are going to accelerate as we start to see the US dollar really weaken against its fiat uh competitors. That's going to put a lot of upward pressure on both consumer prices and long-term interest rates in the United States, which is going to pressure the Fed to do something about it, to try to buy uh those bonds, to try to artificially suppress those rates, interest rates, mortgage rates, uh that would otherwise be going higher. So, it's just going to be a printfest uh and anticipation of of the midterms. So, it's going to be a weak dollar. It's going to be uh strong gold and silver prices. Not really sure about the stock overall US stock market. I think that it won't be a strong year for tech. I think that to the extent that the US stock market does well, it'll be the basic industrials. I think the Dow Jones will outperform the NASDAQ in in 2026.

38:36 But I think the outperformance that we saw in global markets, people that were invested outside the United States uh doubled or tripled the returns of the S&P. So I think what we're seeing now in the foreign markets, what happened in 2025 is not the end of something, but the beginning of something. What it's the end of is the outperformance of the US market versus the foreign markets. But it's the beginning of the foreign markets outperforming the US market, right? It's not a one-off year that is just going to be like uh you know a throwaway just the exception. This is the new rule. I think we're going to see money flowing out of US dollars and out of US stocks into foreign stocks just like we're seeing money flow out of dollars and treasuries into gold and now into silver. The central banks aren't buying silver, but I think investors and the public are buying silver and and now this, you know, this bull market isn't

39:36 just moving on one leg. In fact, one of the criticisms that it had was that we didn't have the validation from silver. Uh but now we have the validation from silver and even though gold stocks had a great year, they didn't move up nearly as much as they should have given the incredible rise in gold and silver. I think that's going to happen next year. I think as good as 2025 was for precious metals mining stocks, I think 2026 will be even better because this is going to be the year of the earnings beats. This is going to be when these companies report these phenomenal blowout earnings, uh, share buybacks, higher dividends, and this is going to grab the attention of, uh, the Wall Street analysts, the investing public, especially uh, with a collapse in crypto because Bitcoin was stealing gold's thunder uh, for the last several years.

40:34 uh it got all uh the headlines, all the attention. A lot of money that might otherwise have gone into gold and silver mining stocks went into Bitcoin ETFs or strategy or stuff like that. But as the bloom comes off that rose or the tulip, better uh way to describe it. Uh but as uh the bloom comes off that crypto tulip, I think a lot of money that got distracted uh is going to go into the precious metal space. Uh, Wall Street is finally going to start embracing gold and silver mining stocks as businesses that have incredible earnings growth, that have incredible value, and that's going to be where money is going to go as it comes out of crypto and cryptoreated stocks. Now, of course, most money won't come out of cryptoreated stocks. It's just going to go to money heaven. It's going to disappear as these stocks implode. But the people who get out early will get out with something. And I think whatever

41:30 they managed to salvage, that money uh could be uh invested in gold and silver mining stocks to try to make back uh what what they lost. In fact, not only will they make back what they lost, they can add considerable profits because we have tremendous upside not only in 2026 uh but for the rest of the decade and probably into the next uh because this is a major major dollarbear market. I think what we're living through now is the beginning of the end of US dollar hegemony. I think the dollar's days as the reserve currency are now numbered and the number is not that large. Uh so king dollar is being dethroned by gold and when gold is sitting on that throne that is a major change for America. We no longer have the exorbitant privilege of creating uh uh dollars out of thin air and then spending spending them around the world and buying all the things that we don't make. Uh so our uh ride on the global gravy train comes to

42:33 an end. Uh we can no longer just live beyond our means. But that is a major boom for the rest of the world. It no longer has to support the burden of the American consumer. Right? The world now can reclaim its productivity. uh can consume what it produces and invest what it saves instead of loaning it savings to the US government to bloat on consumption. Those savings could be invested productively in their own economies which is why I'm so optimistic particularly on the emerging markets which I think could be the stock market story other than precious metals and energy. By the way, energy was really beaten down. Oil was down on the year.

43:11 Energy stocks were down but I think they're not out. I think they're going to be a great buy. Energy, uh, emerging markets, commodities, all commodities, especially precious metals related investments, I think are all going to have a great, uh, 2026. So, I'm very optimistic as an investor. Uh, because, uh, everything is lining up to favor the way I have my investments allocated. As an American, I'm a lot more apprehensive. I know that things are going to get very bad and I'm worried about who's going to get blamed and and how the political uh tides are going to shift. Uh but I will do my best in 2026 to make sure that as many people as possible know the truth. Uh you know, maybe Donald Trump, you know, he thinks I'm a loser and a jerk and a hater. uh you know, but maybe somebody in this administration will pay attention to some of the things uh that I'm saying in in 2026. And I would hope that my my

44:16 audience would also contribute uh try to tell your friends uh about my podcast in the new year. Try to get as many people as possible to listen to the Petership Show. I think it's more important than ever that people listen to my podcast given the things that are going to happen and the way the media, the radical left biased media is going to frame this and how capitalism and conservatism or libertarianism is going to get the blame for everything that government and central banking is creating. Uh people need to hear uh the truth from me. And so if my audience could help spread the word, tell people who don't listen to the Petership Show about it. Hopefully this Tucker Carlson interview that I did, which should drop, I guess next year, uh or hopefully the first week of January, maybe it'll go live. Uh we recorded it on December 16th. Uh but hopefully, you know, I'll reach some new people there. They'll

45:14 start listening to the show. Get your friends to follow me on social media. I'm just shy of 1.3 million uh followers on X. I'd like to get to two million. That's a good goal to get to 2 million uh ex followers uh in 2026. You know, I finally was able to crack through uh 600,000 subscribers to my YouTube channel. But I'm, you know, maybe 603 604,000, but you know, I'd like to get I'd love to have a million subscribers, but it seems like that's going to take an eternity. Uh but maybe who knows if enough people help me, if enough uh enough of you who are subscribing get a couple of friends to subscribe, uh maybe maybe we can get there. Anyway, that's it. It's getting a little bit late here. I got to start preparing uh for for New Year's Eve. I want to wish again all of my uh followers, all of my subscribers uh a very happy and healthy New Year. Be careful in the drive. make sure everybody uh survives the night. Uh and

46:19 you know, at least we got Uber. If you have too much to drink, you know, you could always call you always call Uber to get yourself home. Uh but uh you know, I know a lot of people that listen to uh my uh videos have already celebrated New Year's, right? They already started in New Zealand, Australia quite some time ago. In fact, it's probably uh getting close to New Year's now in Europe, Asia, it's already passed. So, a lot of people, you've already had uh your New Year's celebration. Uh but for those of you listening in the United States, depending on when you hear this, you know, many of you won't hear it until after the New Year's because you're busy tonight. You probably don't have time for the Peter Shift Show podcast. But again, hopefully everybody has a great New Year's Eve and a great and prosperous 2026.

47:06 And I will be doing everything I can, as I said, uh to uh bring all of my subscribers, uh the real story, uh cut through all the BS, uh talk about finance, talk about economics, talk about politics, uh the way few people uh in in this space seem to do. I don't there's not a lot of people that are combining uh the three uh I think the way the way I'm able to do it. And I think a lot of the people uh who follow me and listen to these uh podcasts on a regular basis agree. And so hopefully I can expand my reach because I don't really have the mainstream media uh really anymore like I used to. I mean I'm on once in a while. Uh but I mainly count on social media and on the internet uh to spread my message and it's a message that needs to be spread and I need as much help uh as possible to do it. Anyway, that's it.

48:02 Take care everybody and I will be back again in 2026.

Questions about this episode

What is discussed in "Year-End Special: My 2026 Economic and Market Forecasts"?

In order: 0:00 Silver, Dow Jones, Peter Schiff; 5:00 Silver, Chinese yuan; 10:00 Silver, Chinese yuan; 15:00 Silver; 20:00 Silver; 35:00 Silver, Dow Jones; 40:00 Silver.

What is mentioned in this Peter Schiff episode?

4 people, works and ideas are mentioned, including Silver, Dow Jones, Chinese yuan, Peter Schiff. Each one on this page links to its own page with every episode that mentions it.

How long is "Year-End Special: My 2026 Economic and Market Forecasts"?

The episode runs 48 min; the transcript is about 7,538 words in 56 timestamped sections.

More from Peter Schiff

• All analyzed episodes
• People mentioned on Peter Schiff
• Topics mentioned on Peter Schiff