Transcript

A Blue Wave is Coming for Trump. How Big Will It Be?

From Pod Save America · Episode page · Watch on YouTube

· 1 h 10 min · 14,047 words · 208 timestamped sections

This is the full, timestamped transcript of "A Blue Wave is Coming for Trump. How Big Will It Be?", an episode of Pod Save America published October 30, 2026 (1 h 10 min, about 14,047 words). It mentions 36 people, works and ideas, including Pod Save America, Dan Pfeiffer, John Favreau, South Carolina, Crooked Media.

What this episode is about

The content previews a political discussion focusing on Trump’s rally in South Carolina, campaign dynamics in Georgia and Alaska, near-final polling, and voter anxieties ahead of the midterms, with updates on election-night coverage and related events. It also mentions plan for live Q&A and appearances at Crooked Con.

Key takeaways

  • Trump’s self-selected swing-state theater doubles as a chaotic data point: rallies amplify emotion, not accuracy.
  • The Times' portrayal vs. reality reveals a campaign strategy mismatch: fear-and-loyalty messaging against dwindling midterm bets.
  • Ballot-stacking fears in Alaska show how procedural drama can overshadow policy debates in punditland.
  • Alex Wagner hosting election night is less about coverage, more about brand continuity and audience loyalty.
  • Crooked Con and relentless promo guardrails prove political media ecosystems survive on event-hooks, not policy clarity.

Who speaks in this episode?

What is discussed, and when

  1. – 10:00: South Carolina, Pod Save America, Crooked Media, Dan Pfeiffer
  2. – 20:00: South Carolina, SimpliSafe, Crooked Media, Remi
  3. – 30:00: South Carolina, Minnesota, Pod Save America, Detroit, Michigan
  4. – 40:00: The Cheesecake Factory, Bombas, Pod Save America, Crooked Media
  5. – 50:00: BetterHelp, The Cheesecake Factory
  6. – 1:00:00: Virginia's 5th congressional district (VA-5), South Carolina, Tom Perriello, Dan Pfeiffer
  7. – 1:09:55: Pod Save America, Crooked Media, Barack Obama, votesaveamerica.com

Notable quotes from "A Blue Wave is Coming for Trump. How Big Will It Be?"

  • On today's show, we'll take you to Trump's rally in the newly minted swing state of South Carolina, to Atlanta, where Barack Obama closed out the campaign with Jon Ossoff, Keisha.
    about Dan Pfeiffer · at
  • Save America YouTube channel. It's going to be Alex, a bunch of your favorite Crooked hosts, including us, and a bunch of great guests. it's Tuesday, November 3rd, election…
    about Crooked Media · at
  • For example, here's the president stumping for Darlene Graham in South Carolina on Thursday.
    about South Carolina · at
  • I don't want to read too much into one man's successful infiltration of a Trump rally but we did get a Time Siena poll of South Carolina on Wednesday which was a bit of a…
    about TIME/Siena College Research Institute · at
  • Pod Save America is brought to you by Remi. It's spooky season, but nothing is scarier than the sound of night time teeth grinding, except ignoring your oral health during National Dental.
    about Remi · at
  • Can I know this wasn't on the outline, but can I ask you about the Minnesota poll?
    about Minnesota · at
  • I heard the president was not happy when I joked over the weekend that he's got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory. I lived at Chuck-E-Cheese.
    about Barack Obama · at
  • Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production. Our show is produced by Austin Fisher, Saul Rubin, McKenna Roberts, and Michael Goldsmith with Reed Cherlin, Elijah Cohen, and.
    about Pod Save America · at

Who and what is mentioned in this episode?

People

  • Dan Pfeiffer — Person · Host / Co‑host · 2 mentions · first at
    Co‑host who provides polling analysis, field guidance for listeners, and co‑leads election‑night planning commentary.
  • John Favreau — Person · Host · 1 mention · first at
    Co‑host of Pod Save America; leads discussion on midterms, polls, and strategy throughout the episode.
    Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
  • Barack Obama — Person · Referenced speaker / surrogate · 3 mentions · first at
    Referenced for his rally in Georgia and his Cheesecake Factory joke that prompted White House reaction; used as an example of effective political messaging.
  • Tom Perriello — Person · House candidate / referenced politician · 2 mentions · first at
    Running in VA‑5; referenced as a litmus test for Democratic strength in traditionally Republican districts.
    District, which is where our old friend Tom Perriello is running for Congress again. This is sort of in and around the Charlottesville area. this was supposed to be a very Democratic district if the Virginia maps had come in.
  • Maria Elvira Salazar — Person · Referenced incumbent candidate (House) · 1 mention · first at
    Representative in Florida (FL‑27) whose race is highlighted as an important indicator for Latino voter behavior in the state.
    Then we're going to get poll closings in North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, and Georgia. In Florida, it's Florida 27 that I'm very interested in. That's Maria Carolina?
  • Jon Ossoff — Person · Referenced surrogate / rally participant · 2 mentions · first at
    Mentioned as one of the participants at Obama's Georgia rally; referenced in the episode's rundown of Obama's stop.
    And for all the conservative pundits and mega warriors who thought it was wise to pick a fight with the most popular political figure in America over a joke about Donald Trump's interior design.
  • Alex Wagner — Person · Announced livestream host / guest host · 1 mention · first at
    Named as host of the Pod Save America livestream on election night; promoted as part of the episode's event promotion.
    And we have a couple of announcements before we get into it. on election night, Alex Wagner will be hosting a livestream of the results on the Pod Save America YouTube channel.…
  • Keisha Lance Bottoms — Person · Referenced surrogate / rally participant · 2 mentions · first at
    Mentioned as another participant at Obama's Georgia rally; part of the roundup of Obama's appearances.
    And for all the conservative pundits and mega warriors who thought it was wise to pick a fight with the most popular political figure in America over a joke about Donald Trump's interior design.
  • Peggy Flanagan — Person · Referenced candidate · 1 mention · first at
    Named as leading in the Time/Siena Minnesota poll; used to illustrate polling variance and analytic concerns.
    Can I know this wasn't on the outline, but can I ask you about the Minnesota poll?
  • Richard Hudson — Person · Referenced Republican figure · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as head of the NRCC and representative connected to competitive districts where Democrats are investing (NY‑style examples).
    9, which is a district that Trump won by double digits. It's also the home district of Richard Hudson, who also happens to be the head of the NRCC, the Republican House…
  • Andy Barr — Person · Referenced incumbent (House) · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as the incumbent in Kentucky 6 (reference point for that district's competitiveness).
    Harbingers of things to come. And I'm going to start with Kentucky 6. Polls close in Kentucky first. Kentucky 6 is the seat held by Andy Barr, who is running for the Republican…
  • Elaine Luria — Person · House candidate referenced · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as a candidate in Virginia (Virginia 2) and as part of the set of House races used to measure Democrats' night.
    That's Elaine Luria. She's running to get her seat back. So that's like the most gettable, right? I think that's like And they Trump won that by like less than a point, right?
  • Ashley Moody — Person · Referenced candidate (Florida) · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as a candidate in Florida context—callout that a quick call in a race for her would be notable if not called quickly.
    Going to tell us how Latinos in the Rio Grande Valley move, but still I think very interesting. And also, if they don't call that race for Ashley Moody quickly, that'll be very interesting as well.
  • Chuck Edwards — Person · Referenced former incumbent (NC‑11) · 1 mention · first at
    Keeps canonical form of a real person’s name
    In North Carolina, I'm interested in North Carolina 11, which is the seat that was the Chuck Edwards seat before he resigned. And Jimmy Aggers there.
  • Amy Walter — Person · Referenced analyst / guest on related episodes · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as a past podcast guest who contributes electoral analysis; referenced to add analytical credibility to episode discussion.
    Yes. And I when I did that I did our Sunday podcast with Amy Walter a few weeks ago, it's worth like these are all potential signs. It's not we should be.

Companies & orgs

  • Crooked Media — Company · Parent company / producer · 8 mentions · first at
    Producer of Pod Save America and host organization; repeatedly referenced (brand, CrookedCon, subscriptions).
  • The Cheesecake Factory — Company · Cultural reference / comedic hook · 11 mentions · first at
    Referenced because Obama's joke comparing Trump's White House decor to 'Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory' sparked a media/White House reaction discussed on the show.
    The White House even called the Secretary of the Treasury.
  • votesaveamerica.com — Company · Call to action / mobilization site · 1 mention · first at
    Site recommended as a resource for listeners to take action (find volunteer opportunities, voting info) and support Democratic turnout.
    Find five people in your life who you think may not have voted yet and remind them to vote now.
  • NRCC — Company · Referenced organization / GOP House campaign arm · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced as the Republican House campaign arm (affiliation with Richard Hudson) and target of Democratic efforts in specific districts.
    9, which is a district that Trump won by double digits. It's also the home district of Richard Hudson, who also happens to be the head of the NRCC, the Republican House…

Places & events

  • South Carolina — Place · Setting / battleground state · 15 mentions · first at
    Location of Trump's rally and a key Senate race (Darlene Graham vs Annie Andrews) discussed at length; used to illustrate polling surprises and turnout dynamics.
  • TIME/Siena College Research Institute — Event · Polling source / news event · 2 mentions · first at
    Standardizes the polling entity name for accuracy and consistency
  • Minnesota — Place · State polling example / battleground · 5 mentions · first at
    Referenced because Time/Siena poll showed a large lead for Peggy Flanagan; discussed as potential 'canary' and analysis vehicle for polling methodology concerns.
  • Virginia's 5th congressional district (VA-5) — Place · Setting / House district under watch · 3 mentions · first at
    Clarifies that this is a congressional district in Virginia, not a generic location label
    In Virginia, we got a bunch of House races. The one that I'm going to look at is Virginia 5, which is a Trump +12 district, which is where our old friend Tom Perriello is running for Congress.
  • Kentucky's 6th congressional district (KY-6) — Place · Setting / House district under watch · 1 mention · first at
    Standardizes formatting to match district naming conventions
    Harbingers of things to come. And I'm going to start with Kentucky 6. Polls close in Kentucky first. Kentucky 6 is the seat held by Andy Barr, who is running for the Republican…
  • Florida 27 — Place · House district under watch · 1 mention · first at
    Highlighted as a heavily Latino, Trump +15 district (FL‑27) where Maria Elvira Salazar's race will be informative about Latino voting dynamics in Florida.
    Then we're going to get poll closings in North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, and Georgia. In Florida, it's Florida 27 that I'm very interested in. That's Maria Carolina?
  • Detroit, Michigan — Place · Regional vote-count / turnout reference · 2 mentions · first at
    Disambiguates city/state to avoid confusion with other Detroits
    Well, the Glengariff poll, the CNN poll, the there was another Detroit News poll that was not that. That was also the same.
  • CrookedCon — Event · Event promotion · 1 mention · first at
    Crooked Media's conference referenced for ticket sales and in‑person appearances by hosts; used for promotional call‑outs in the episode/context block.
    For free. Join the channel. also, if you haven't already, don't forget to get your tickets to Crooked Con. We're all going to be there. We're all going to be celebrating or drinking. Drinking either way.
  • North Carolina 11 — Place · House district under watch · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced as an interesting North Carolina House race (NC‑11) to observe turnout and rural Democratic performance.
    In North Carolina, I'm interested in North Carolina 11, which is the seat that was the Chuck Edwards seat before he resigned. And Jimmy Aggers there.
  • Wayne County — Place · Vote-counting / turnout reference · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced specifically in relation to Michigan counting and Detroit turnout concerns (Wayne County contains Detroit).
    Polls be right and Abdul will win relatively easy, but that's one you can see yourself waiting for Wayne County and being very which is where Detroit is being very nervous…

Media & podcasts

  • Pod Save America — Media · Program / Podcast · 9 mentions · first at
    The show being listened to; central vehicle for the episode content and sponsor reads.

Sponsors

  • Remi — Sponsor · Sponsor · 2 mentions · first at
    Episode sponsor: night guard product featured in ad reads with discount code and purchase URL.
  • SimpliSafe — Sponsor · Sponsor · 3 mentions · first at
    Home security company featured in an ad read with a specific promo (simplisafe.com/crooked) encouraging purchases through that link.
    System. Join the more than 6 million people who entrust SimpliSafe with their home security. Right now, save 60% off with professional monitoring when you visit simplisafe.com/crooked.
  • BetterHelp — Sponsor · Sponsor · 3 mentions · first at
    Therapy service sponsor read with CTA and dedicated URL for listeners.
    BetterHelp is now in network with more than 125 health plans with many co-pays as low as $15 for eligible members. And if you don't have eligible insurance or live outside the US, you can still get.
  • Buoy — Sponsor · Sponsor / product advertiser · 1 mention · first at
    Sponsor for an electrolyte product with CTA, discount code, and health claims cited from a university-led clinical trial.
    Pod Save America is brought to you by Remi. It's spooky season, but nothing is scarier than the sound of night time teeth grinding, except ignoring your oral health during National Dental.
  • Bombas — Sponsor · Sponsor · 3 mentions · first at
    Sponsor read promoting clothing/sock products with charitable donation model and promo code for listeners.
    Facing housing insecurity. One purchased equals one donated with over 200 million donations and counting. Head over to bombas.com/crooked and use code crooked for 20% off your…
  • Buoy electrolytes — Product · Sponsor product · 1 mention · first at
    Product being promoted by sponsor Buoy; described as a liquid electrolyte additive with clinical trial claims and promotional discount code.
    Matcha more hydrating. According to a university-led clinical trial published by the journal nutrients, Buoy electrolytes are clinically proven to hydrate 64% more than water…

Full transcript with timestamps

Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau. I'm Dan Pfeiffer. On today's show, we'll take you to Trump's rally in the newly minted swing state of South Carolina, to Atlanta, where Barack Obama closed out the campaign with Jon Ossoff, Keisha Lance Bottoms, and a second helping of Cheesecake Factory content. We'll also talk about the situation with Democrats ballot stacking in Alaska, what the almost final polls and models are telling us, and hear some voicemails from our subscribers expressing the anxieties we're all feeling.

Then, on this last Friday pod before the midterms, we're going to do what the consultants always say about their candidates, and let Dan be Dan.

At least we have a title At least we have a title for this episode. And Dan, in our editorial meeting this morning, you offered to, quote, "totally nerd out." Are you feeling loose? Feeling limber?

We'll see. We'll see when we get there. I got to warm up through the through all that Trump discourse.

Okay, great. Great. Uh and we have a couple of announcements before we get into it. Uh on election night, Alex Wagner will be hosting a livestream of the results on the Pod Save America YouTube channel. It's going to be Alex, a bunch of your favorite Crooked hosts, including us, and a bunch of great guests. Uh it's Tuesday, November 3rd, election day, starting at 9:00 p.m. Eastern, 6:00 p.m. Pacific. Uh friends of the pod will get a chance to have their questions answered live on air. So, subscribe to the Pod Save America YouTube channel now so you don't miss it. That's what you got to do. Go subscribe to the channel. It's free.

Just go to YouTube if you're watching this on YouTube. If you're not, get on your YouTube app and just hit subscribe for free. Join the channel. Um also, if you haven't already, don't forget to get your tickets to Crooked Con. We're all going to be there. We're all going to be uh celebrating or drinking. Drinking either way. Uh um and it's good cuz we'll all be together, and there's going to be great conversations, and uh you'll get to meet a bunch of friends. So, crookedcon.com. Check it out. Get your tickets now.

Okay, as we head into the final weekend before election day, let's start with some mood music. In a classic of the genre that includes background interviews with 16 current and former Trump officials, The New York Times sees a grim White House and an angry president who has raged against bad stories and and is increasingly cloistered with a small group of aides like Natalie Harp who apparently now works out of Trump's private dining room and Bill Palty whose role one Trump official described as court jester. Um both Natalie and Palty have been feeding Trump a steady diet of fawning press coverage, memes, and AI slop.

Which one? Otherwise known as the president's daily briefing. I was going to say. And you know, to be honest, the whole story a little hard to believe because, you know, the the deranged declining Donald Trump portrayed by the Times, it just doesn't comport with what the rest of us are seeing out there on the campaign trail. For example, here's the president stumping for Darlene Graham in South Carolina on Thursday.

They forced me down his throat. Trandy Annie is a mutilator. If you're black or if you're Jewish and if you vote for Abdul, you're crazy.

Lindsey's looking down. He said, "I'd love to be here, but it just didn't work out.

I don't even believe in polls. Donald Trump is at 42%. At 42% You mean times two and add 20. Boy, they are bad. They're sick people. Fake polls. If you're president, Republican or Democrat, for whatever reason, you don't win the midterms. We have the biggest rallies ever in history and you'll never I hope you enjoy it cuz you're never going to see it again.

Now, that's good news. Um here's hoping. Here's hoping. Do you think um you think the Graham campaign got what they needed out of that event? Uh, the president saying, "Well, presidents always lose the midterms." Uh, Lindsey Graham's looking down but couldn't make it. Uh, a lengthy diatribe about Abdul El-Sayed who's running in Michigan, not South Carolina.

So, it's Walter Tell Rico talking there. Rico, yeah. Tell Rico likes meat. That was the the beginning.

Did a full episode of Poller Coaster about the Wedgewood polling scandal? We didn't include it but there was also like there was a lot of Ilhan Omar. There's There was basically everything except uh, talk about Darlene Graham and and South Carolina. That was I don't know what you think.

there was a teleprompter. Mhm, yeah. Cuz every once in a while he would just look up and then sort of read in a monotone read something about Darlene Graham and then go back to the Trump show.

I mean, it's it's truly it's like he's trying to lose the midterms. Or, I mean, maybe it's maybe a better way to put it is he just wants to do his thing without any regard to anyone else which is shouldn't have been surprising anyone but there's nothing there that would be seen as helpful to the candidate he's trying to help.

I think in his mind um, he has already lost the midterms. I think he believes that about President always loses the midterms.

Yeah. Uh, he probably thinks that, you know, maybe Republicans can keep the Senate. Maybe it won't be as bad as the poll suggest but he kind of knows that like it's not going to go great. Like I I I'm sure he thinks the house is gone, right? And so, at that point he's just having fun. He's going to say what's on his mind and and enjoy these rallies cuz they're his they might be his last rallies.

They're definitely not his last rallies. There's no way he will give this up. We will be watching those rallies. We'll be watching videos of these rallies the rest of our lives and just commenting on them.

[snorts] Even if it's AI. I was Well, that's true but I was going to say like I guess he'll he'll campaign for the he'll campaign a lot for the 28 nominee for the Republicans but like it's it can't be a situation like it was in Mississippi with Cindy Hyde-Smith where their Republican nominee comes on stage for 2 minutes, leaves and then Donald Trump just does the whole rally in 28, right?

Right. Well, I mean, we have the we'll have some gubernatorial elections in 2027 2027 that he can maybe participate in. So, but I think the bigger point here is that if Trump really wanted to win the midterms, he would shut the up and stay in the White House. The best thing Republicans could allow these to be a race between a Republican and Democrat like Abdul versus Mike Rogers, Sherrod Brown versus John Husted, Andy Andrews versus Mallory Graham. That maybe not the best example of Mallory Graham. So, but just there some cases where you can make it about individual Democratic candidates in red states. But Trump cannot see the stage. So, he would rather lose the midterms out in public than win them in hiding in the White House and have there be some narrative that he couldn't, you know, that they won because he was he wasn't out there campaigning or is hiding or whatever else.

Yeah, speaking of um hiding in the White House, uh I don't know if you had any other favorite uh bits from that time piece. Um to your point that you just made, I did like in the piece it it says that Republican advisers and outside groups have warned the White House that Trump's appearances could have hurt candidates in close races. His team has largely discounted that concern.

Yes, I'm sure they have. Yes. Yeah, we can see. And is uh and is concentrating on turning out Republicans in red states.

Even I'll get to the piece in a second, but even if you wanted to say yes, like maybe Trump can be helpful in Mississippi, in South Carolina. These are Trump plus 18 states, plus more than that in some cases. But Trump going to Michigan is bananas. It's just a truly bananas choice, right? Ohio even, which even though it's a state he won by double digits, certainly not helpful, right?

[snorts] But it's to the piece, all right. It offends me to my latent political strategist soul that they're doing something this stupid down the stretch. Like it just it And then they're not enough people are talking about how stupid it is.

Yeah. Like it's so obviously stupid that everyone's so like knocked upside the head with Trump always defies the expectations. It's it's idiotic. Everyone knows it's idiotic. No one in the Republican Party will say it. The fact that Mike Rogers spent all this time running ads saying that he was against the kind of sort of against the tariffs, kind of sort of against the war, or has to stand next to Trump at a rally. Like that's stupid.

[snorts] In the piece, and I'm surprised I assume this is also your favorite part where it says that Trump has been calling allies to regale himself about how long his crowds were, how big his crowds were, but to mention that J.D. Vance is not getting very big crowds.

You know me. That's it. That's That's right top of my list. Yep. It's just so funny.

Yeah. The I mean, the 28 campaign like I'm not looking forward to our primary. Yes, their primary is going to be amazing.

Very much looking forward to that to watch that show unfold. The human psychodrama as Trump tortures J.D. Vance the whole time so good.

It's going to It's like the saving grace for the whole year. Um uh I also like that that Bill Pulte, the the court jester as he's known, um his thing is his thing is memes apparently and he he made a poster of John Hustead.

Uh Was it of John Hustead's ass? That wasn't clear. It doesn't Yeah, it did not specify in the in the in the New York Times cuz God is a sort of respected institution but

New York Times did say they made a poster of John Hustead whose ass Donald Trump has praised.

whose physique Yes, yes, yes. repeatedly I'm reading between the lines. has repeatedly praised. Um and then also as I think Tommy gets this on Tuesday's pod but we did find out that Trump dictated the 1,300 word Bill Maher tirade to Natalie after watching Bill Maher's monologue. So and now we know why Nat- Natalie you know, she had one of the desks outside the Oval Office. Um but he's moved her into the Oval Office or basically to the private dining room off the Oval Office. Um and typical of Trump don't necessarily think there's anything untoward going on there. The reason she's there is so when he can watch the TV, he can just yell to her in the dining room and tell her to start doing some truths and doing some posting.

Well, it'd be really annoying to call her. By the time she gets there, the segment's over. She's got to be in the moment with Trump.

be right there. She's got to be just typing that out. Um so certainly the people who came to see Trump in South Carolina were excited to be there uh minus the several protesters who interrupted the event. That seems to be happening a lot more these days.

I don't I have almost no recollection of it happening for years now and it happens everywhere we go.

Yeah, it's interesting. Uh it could be it could be a sign or not. Um but then there was this guy uh who showed up at the rally.

Tom, why are you here this morning? Well, in the late '70s I was a little too young to get involved and uh go to South America for the Jonestown Massacre but this is as close as I'll ever get so that's why I'm here.

Wait, the Jonestown Massacre? That's right. See? There's nothing like seeing a cult right up front, man.

All right. So maybe maybe this is not a Trump supporter. hero. Yes. Uh I did like that it took the Fox News reporter just an extra beat to get it. He was like, "Jonestown Massacre?" Didn't get it then and then the guy was like, "Yeah, cult up close." And he's like, "Oh. Oh, I get it. You're not a real Trump supporter."

I think the fastest way to the Democratic nomination is to promise that guy the Presidential Medal of Freedom if elected president.

I mean that guy might end up on the ballot. Oh, you know what? If this were 2017, he would be on the he would have he would run right now.

You know, if we were 2017, we would have figured we got to get him on the show.

That's I mean we should How do we not have that guy? Probably because he's at the rally.

Probably probably because he's on the Bulwark right now. Don't It's going to happen. Tim's going to have Tim's going to be talking to him tomorrow. Tim's going to be talking to this guy. Tim's going to be talking to this guy.

He may be doing it right now as we speak. Ah, I'm just I'm just I'm sending some slacks while I'm in this recording.

pause the podcast. Let's send some notes. Okay. Uh I don't want to read too much into one man's uh successful infiltration of a Trump rally uh but we did get a Time Siena poll of South Carolina on Wednesday which was a bit of a surprise partly because we were you and I have been hoping for Time Siena polls all week. Maybe by the time you're listening to this on Friday, there will have been another batch of Time Siena polls uh that we'll have missed because they came out on Friday. But on Wednesday, we got South Carolina, Florida, and uh Minnesota.

Uh but the South Carolina one was pretty amazing because it has the race in a dead heat with Annie Andrews and Darlene Graham at 48% each. Uh Silver Bulletins polling average uh still has Darlene Graham up 1 and 1/2 points. I think Nate's model flipper uh still has like the republic the the projection is three points for Graham. Um but good poll, New York Times poll, 48-48. Is this one as close as it seems? What do you think? You wrote a message box on this.

I do. I think it it by all accounts it seems to be incredibly close. I think this poll is a validation of the idea that Annie Andrews can very much win this race.

[snorts] It's not just that it's tied cuz the poll the race has been tied or within a point or two for a couple months now, but it previously the polls were like 44-43, 45-44. And 44% is what Jamie Harrison got in 2020 in that Senate race. So, the New York Times poll shows that Annie Andrews can grow her vote share to the point where she has a real shot of winning. You look at the internals, people do not like Darlene Graham. She has a There is a negative um she has a net negative favorability rating. Uh a plurality of South Carolinians think she has not she does not have the experience to be an effective senator.

People like Annie Andrews, although she her name ID is still a little bit low, which is a little bit shocking this far into the race. But 54% of South Carolinians think she has the experience to be an effective senator. A the plurality think that she is not uh too far to the right or too far to the left, which is a huge thing there. Um on the issues, the people the people South Carolina think trust [snorts] her more to handle all the major issues except immigration. All very positive. And the thing is 48-48, there are two third-party candidates on the ballot in this election. They did not show up in this poll. They both they both came in at um less than 1% combined.

also named Darlene Graham? They're They're well guys, they're yes, they're Darlene Darlene with a Y

Graham. Um And they have shown up in other polls though. Um so, we'll see. And I I don't know whether the Times asked them by name or asked just are you voting for another candidate? So, it's like I think it Like is it Does it Trump's Let's say Trump won by 18 points. This is a very hard state. But listening to the excellent podcast Still Counting

Mhm. in which they made the point that I think Nate made this point that if South Carolina is a state with a gigantic black population. There's evidence in early voting and voter registration data that turnout could be through the roof amongst black voters. We saw this in the in the primaries in some states. Especially in the South, that if you had presidential year turnout among black voters and midterm level turnout among everyone else, which is white voters,

[snorts] the state would shift nine points to the left. Mhm. So, you can doesn't

Which still doesn't quite get you there. But you need independents and And in this poll, he has just crushed her with independents. And then interestingly enough, also in the Spartanburg-Greenville area, which is where Ralph Norman's from, um she's underperforming significantly there. And you know, there is now a uh sort of undercover write-in Ralph Norman campaign happening. Oh.

Oh. And that Ralph Norman has not um disavowed per se. And he will not be campaigning with her. And he's not happy with Darlene Graham or Donald Trump for the situation we're in.

[snorts] Yeah, I mean, I I think everyone should just The fact that it is tied in this poll and the fact that the where you even talking about this at all when Donald Trump won the state by 18 is crazy.

Yeah. And also evidence of like just how far the country has shifted or the electorate has shifted. Um

And how bad a candidate Darlene Graham is. And how bad a candidate Darlene Graham is as well. You know, some people say, "Well, the Everyone got really excited about Jaime Harrison in 2020." And you know, the polls showed that he was close and then he lost by 10 to Lindsey Graham. But like someone pointed out the Time Siena final poll in 2020 did have um it had Graham uh ahead of Harrison by six. And we ended up winning by 10. But so like there was no tied poll from from Time Sienna in 2020. And that was a year where all the polling was uh off. And and overestimated Democrats.

the Times polling, too. And the Times polling, too. So that and and you know, it's a presidential year, so it's hard to compare both, but you're right. Like if you get if if if everything has to go right for Annie Andrews to win, right? Which is incredibly high black turnout, uh mid-term white turnout, some depressed turnout among Republicans, um crushing with independents, and you know, some Republicans crossing over to vote for Annie Andrews.

Yeah. It's a I mean, like they said, it's very, very hard, but it's also worth noting that Trump is in South Carolina, was in South Carolina today. Republicans are spending a ton of money in South Carolina. They believe it's a real race, too. This is not just us huffing hopium somewhere.

Today's presenting sponsor is SimpliSafe home security. Kids worry about imaginary monsters, but real-world threats require real protection. Traditional security systems only alert you during a break-in. SimpliSafe stops threats before they happen. Smart AI cameras monitor for potential threats and notify SimpliSafe's live agents. The agent intervenes in under 30 seconds, speaking through the camera to stop an intruder in their tracks, then calls for urgent 911 dispatch when it's needed most. Our CEO recently installed a SimpliSafe on her own and loves it.

She's installed in a couple hours. All the components were up and running in no time. She thinks the app super easy to use, likes that it allows her to arm and disarm the system from her phone. Temperature and water sensors uh allow her to monitor areas of the house as the weather changes as well. So, all in all, excellent review, and she loves the system. Join the more than 6 million people who entrust SimpliSafe with their home security. Right now, save 60% off with professional monitoring when you visit simplisafe.com/crooked.

That's simplisafe.com/crooked. And when you order, please write in Pod Save America in the checkout survey. It lets them know we sent you, and it really helps to support the show. SimpliSafe, ahead of crime in real time. Pod Save America is brought to you by Remi. It's spooky season, but nothing is scarier than the sound of night time teeth grinding, except ignoring your oral health during National Dental Hygiene Month. Join over 500,000 Americans who trust Remi to protect their smile. Remi night guards are the only FDA cleared and clinically tested at-home impression kit night guards on the market. They help prevent teeth damage from grinding, reduce jaw tension and facial muscle strain, and improve your sleep quality. You'll get the same professional quality and comfort as a night guard from the dentist for 80% less of the cost by taking your own impression from the convenience of your

home. Remi saves your impressions, so you can enjoy the convenience and savings with their subscribe and save option, where they'll ship you a new set of night guards every 6 months. Pause, skip, or cancel anytime. Here's how it works. It's really easy. I got this done myself. I got a Remi because I am always grinding my teeth all day long and all night, but at least I can solve the night part now. So, after your purchase, the impression kit comes straight to your door, uh and then you just follow very easy step-by-step instructions to get your perfect impression. You send it back, then Remi crafts and ships you your custom-fit night guard, so you can start protecting your teeth right away. Treat, don't trick your teeth this month with Remi by using code crooked to get 50% off your new night guard with Remi Club. That's 50% off at shopremi.com/crooked with code crooked. Thank you, Remi, for

sponsoring this episode. Can I uh I know this wasn't on the outline, but can I ask you about the Minnesota poll?

Yeah. The Times Siena poll, because so it has Peggy Flanagan up 14 points. Yeah.

Um largest lead any poll has shown for her. By far. By far. There's been some polls that had it quite close and made some people nervous. And you know, you see it up 14 points, you see the top line, I was like, great. And then, you know, we all sent this around to each other. Nate Cohn wrote up his analysis of the polls, and uh he said, you know, if if it turns out that the polls have underestimated Republican strength, we may look back and say that this Minnesota poll was a canary in the coal mine. And the reason he said that is because Minnesota is apparently the only state where um you don't have party registration in the voter file. And so usually you can solve for uh the problem of not getting enough Republicans with the uh party registration data.

Um and because you couldn't in Minnesota, like maybe this is an unvarnished look at what happens when you just can't get enough Republicans in your sample. Um I didn't totally follow why that should be a canary in the coal mine. Um but what do you think?

Yeah, I It's I'm not saying Nate's wrong cuz Nate's quite smart, but I they did self-identification in the poll obviously cuz they say in the poll how many Republicans and Democrats there are and then they weighted it to that. The which is how most polls, the New York Times is a rare media poll that goes off the voter file. They're one of the few media organizations that has the resources to conduct a poll that way. That's how every campaign does their poll. It could could very well be this poll is an outlier. It's clearly an outlier. The one thing I would say though is that if you were just to say look at the political environment and the partisan lean of the state, 14 points is almost exactly what the margin should be. If this is a plus 10 environment, Minnesota's a state that was plus about plus four for Kamala Harris in 2024, you're looking at a 14-point race. Now, that doesn't take

into account And the New York Times' own own national poll Yeah. it has a a 10 and a half point lead, right? So like 10 and a half plus four points,

Yeah. which is what Kamala Harris was which it was to the left of the nation by in 2024, that yeah, you're right. That does it.

So like there's a word which it adds up and it's exactly right. We just don't know.

We'll see. We'll see. Um so while we didn't get any fresh Times/Siena Center polls on Thursday, we did get a new round of CNN polls uh showing Democrats ahead by anywhere from four to seven points in Michigan, Texas, Maine, and Kansas. Uh as of this recording, Flipper Nate's model has the chance of Democrats flipping the house at 95%.

Yep. Uh and the Senate is around 80%. I think it's 79 or something, but it's like right there. Uh and if you're wondering what the White House political team is saying, Trump just canceled his in-person rally in Kansas this weekend, and he's replacing it with a series of tele-rallies, including one on election eve for the Republican Senate candidate in Louisiana.

Um now, Trump was asked by a reporter uh why he canceled the Kansas rally, and he flipped out uh very much matching the Times piece. Called the reporter fat and out of shape. Um which is quite something to say for him. Um and uh and then said he canceled the rally because uh Roger Marshall's doing so well.

Which is what everyone is saying. Everyone is saying that. [gasps] Um anyway, Louisiana. So, uh go ahead, Dan. Unburden yourself. Where are we with 4 days to go? What are How how are you feeling? Look at the whole map. What are you thinking?

Yeah, so I think the way to think about this is you take the house. If you just look at the seats that the Republicans have already conceded, it suggests they've basically conceded the majority and are now just trying to put up firewalls to stop Democrats from winning in huge and deeply in hugely Republican districts and deep in Trump country. It's clear that the race has been actually like remarkably steady for 2 months, but the trend has been growing momentum for Democrats and expansion of the map. Just today, [snorts] Democrats put money into North Carolina 9, which is a district that Trump won by double digits. It's also the home district of Richard Hudson, who also happens to be the head of the NRCC, the Republican House campaign arm. So, they're going after him. You also see Democrats making moves in New York 21, which Trump won by 21 points, which is at least the Fanatics old district.

Um so, Democrat like the map is moving in Democrats' direction. I think on the Senate, where I would put this is all of the key races, the ones we care the most about are within the margin of error.

And still that still that still that way. Yes, and that is that has been that way. Democrats have had a pretty steady lead in the polling averages in all of those states. That lead has not really grown in any way, shape, or form over the last couple weeks. It's stayed the same.

hasn't tightened. But it hasn't tightened and you have you have to dig really deep to find any polls that show Republicans leading in any of the main races. But we started this cycle with this idea that somehow Democrats could possibly win two [snorts] seats out of four deeply red states, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, Alaska. They could get the majority. What has changed in the last month is now we don't have to win 50% of those races because you also have as possibly winnable races, South Carolina, Kansas, Mississippi, and Nebraska.

So, the map is wider for Democrats, which just gives us more shots on goal, which is incredibly important.

Yeah, if you sort of look at all the polling in the last couple of weeks, I would say that in Michigan, at least the polling there shows Abdul sort of creeping up.

Yeah, it's hard it's hard to say. There's there's been so many different polls of middle and quality that some of them have had Abdul with bigger leads than we've seen anywhere. The CNN poll, which is a high-quality poll, had that today, seven points. But then a lot of other bad polls have it at two points, you know.

Well, the Glengariff poll, the CNN poll, the there was another Detroit News poll that was not that. That was also the same. So, that that one's going good. Haven't been a lot hasn't been a lot of polling out of Maine. Still still wondering about that. The Texas polls have just been like really steady. Like how I I don't I don't I can't I've lost kind of how many polls show James Tellerico with like a two-point lead in Texas.

Yeah. Yeah, and the CNN poll had him up a little bit more today. Yeah, so I don't know. And then same thing with Ohio has been steady at two or three, but you're right. It's all it's all within the margin of error. But do you think these things break? Is it more likely they all break one way? Or do you think that in a midterm like this you really could see, you know, one state going one way for certain reasons and another going another way even though they were both like two-point races in the polling up till now?

In a presidential election, the states are highly correlated because it's the same two candidates in every case. That is not that the states are not as correlated in midterms. And you do have some geographic differences and some demographic differences among the electorate that does matter. Like the question in Texas is is the Hispanic swing what we think it is? Right? And if it is what we think it is then James Lankford will win. If [snorts] it is not, that doesn't tell you anything about what's likely to happen in Ohio, Alaska, or Iowa.

Mhm. Right? South Carolina and Mississippi very Ohio to a certain extent very dependent on high black turnout.

[snorts] Right? That tells you a little bit less about Iowa and Alaska. Obviously, we don't like to uh dig into the early vote uh which has disappointed us before reading tea leaves from the early vote partly because you don't know the how many people are going to turn out. You're missing the denominator uh because a bunch of people vote on election day. But um I I feel like have have you know, I still look at the early vote in different places. In some places it's it's it's more helpful and more useful than others. Um it doesn't seem like there's anything alarming in the early vote.

No. No. feel like that it you you can't look at it and say like, "Oh, great news. We're doing great here. People are trying." But like it doesn't it doesn't seem like anything in the early vote is telling us that the polling is way off so far.

Yes, we just don't we just don't know enough. And then one of the reasons why the early vote has been wrong before is because either it's a party registration state where you know whether it's Democrats or Republicans or you're making assessments based on demographics as to whether this person's likely to vote for a Republican or a Democrat. And in 2020, people were very off because who we thought were Democrats was you know, [clears throat] we were looking at 2016 level Latino numbers and it turns out not what to get not what we had at all cuz there was a shift and then the bigger shift in 2024.

Same thing in 2024 you're like, "Oh, look at all these young people that turned out." That wasn't as good for Democrats as we as it would have been in a different election year. So, we we just don't know, but there is you know, every once in a while there's like this giant warning sign in one state like it's often Nevada where we always get some of the best data. There's nothing there that has said there's a huge

No, in fact I was just going to raise this like in Nevada there's the governor's race which is the most competitive race. I think like the three Democrats that are running in those three districts are doing three of the four districts Democrats are doing really well. In fact like I think the Republicans have sort of stopped spending in in most of them. But the governor's race is close. Joe Lombardo and is the Republican and Aaron Ford is the Democrat. He's been interviewed here on Pod Save America. And I've been reading Ralston's blog John Ralston's blog and and again the reason that you look at the early vote in Nevada is because everyone gets mailed a ballot so you know the whole universe of voters and so you can sort of do the calculations a bit easier. And I mean if you just look at a graph of what was happening in 2024 in which where like things were getting worse and worse for Democrats as the

days went on and then got a little better at the end but still not much and what's happening now which is just like Democrats are just building this huge lead in ballots that is just getting bigger and bigger and bigger every day. It it looks it looks quite good there but we'll see. Don't want to don't want to get too excited but Nevada is looking pretty good. Now, what does that what does that mean for the rest of the country for all these other races? Again, it's hard to tell right because it's a very specific population in Nevada. It's heavily Latino working class. You've got a governor's race there. It's not a Senate race. So, you know, a bunch of different things could be unique there but so far so good. Pod Save America is brought to you by Buoy.

Electrolyte drinks are all the rage these days but most of them are just natural flavors and stevia mixed with table salt. Buoy is different. Buoy is unflavored liquid electrolytes and 87 trace minerals you can add to any drink, even coffee. Support energy, cognitive function, clarity, and cellular hydration with the drinks you're already drinking. Buoy has no sugar, sweeteners, flavors, or artificial ingredients. It uses ocean harvested sodium plus 87 ionic trace minerals. It has more electrolytes than 13 sports drinks in each 2-oz bottle. Plus, it's third-party tested for pathogens, microplastics, heavy metals, and impurities. Just add one squeeze in whatever you're already drinking to make your water, coffee, or matcha more hydrating. According to a university-led clinical trial published by the journal nutrients, Buoy electrolytes are clinically proven to hydrate 64% more than water alone and to

hydrate 49% more than a leading electrolyte. If you want to make your favorite drinks more hydrating, head to just add buoy.com/crooked. Use code crooked to get 31% off and try Buoy risk-free for 30 days. Get 31% off the liquid electrolyte discovery set that includes additional drops for gut health, brain health, energy, immunity, and more. Head to buoy.com/crooked and use code crooked. And if you or someone you know is living with chronic illness, Buoy helps offset your healthcare costs with their chronic illness lifetime support program. It takes 2 minutes to apply. Pod Save America is brought to you by Bombas. Cozy season is upon us.

That means curling up on crisp mornings in soft layers. Bombas makes your comfiest fall staples so you can make the most of arguably the best season of the year. Bombas' new suede moccasins are perfect for fall with cushy soles, a shearing lining, and water-resistant suede. And their slippers are everything you'd want for a cozy night in made with the softest, most cloud-like materials. Then there's Bombas compression sock collection. Choose from specialized designs for travel, everyday, workout, and recovery. There's a fatigue-fighting pair for every moment. Love Bombas socks. Uh everyone in our family has them and they got great designs. They could be plain, they're super comfy.

Um and the best part about Bombas, for every item you purchase, they donate an essential clothing item to someone facing housing insecurity. One purchased equals one donated with over 200 million donations and counting. Head over to bombas.com/crooked and use code crooked for 20% off your first purchase. That's bombas.com/crooked code crooked at checkout. All right, let's talk about Georgia. Where our old boss held his final event of the campaign Wednesday night at a rally with Keisha Lance Bottoms and Jon Ossoff.

And for all the conservative pundits and mega warriors who thought it was wise to pick a fight with the most popular political figure in America over a joke about Donald Trump's interior design aesthetic. Obama had this to say.

I heard the president was not happy when I I joked over the weekend that he's got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory. I lived at Chuck-E-Cheese and California Pizza Kitchen and the Cheesecake Factory. That was my jam for about a decade. Of course, the real problem is prices gotten so high a lot of folks can barely afford to go out to eat. The president wasn't even mad about the Saddam Hussein comparison, but he was very upset about the Cheesecake Factory comments. They mobilized a whole of government response to that joke.

The White House even called the Secretary of the Treasury. They told him he should hold a press conference in front of the Cheesecake Factory.

And and and the Treasury Secretary he happens to be a former hedge fund manager worth half a billion dollars and he was out there in front of the Cheesecake Factory explaining how he ordered the delicious French dip cheeseburger

instead of the egg rolls. I inherited this major financial crisis. I never called my Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner. Said, man, you got to go to Arby's.

This is what I mean when I say these are not serious people. They don't have solutions to actual problems. So, they'd rather have the media and you talking about the Cheesecake Factory. That's the game they've been playing for the last 2 years. Just keep throwing distractions out there and hope that you won't notice that your bills are higher and your life is tougher.

Uh you think he was having fun there, Dan? Yes, just just a little bit. Just a little bit.

Well, I guess that's that. I guess I don't know if Republicans do they want any more? Uh you want to go another round? Let's do it.

I'm sure some of them do. Sure, we can schedule another rally for you if you want to.

didn't really bring it up today, right? Yeah, I don't think anyone's bringing it up anymore. I think that's about that. I think that's about it.

So good. Um uh yeah, he was very uh I I I I have heard from our friends that he was very excited to do that.

Yes. Yes. Uh the And in fact and in fact the response and the thing about Bessent, like that was that was right from him. The Bessent

He had He had clearly caught a clip of Scott Bessent walking out of the Cheesecake Factory and thought that was the both funniest and craziest he had ever seen.

Just so stupid. So much fun. Um not to be too credulous here, but what do you think of the way he's trying to tie Cheesecake Gate into a larger argument about Donald Trump?

I would just say that um I do as as you are as we all are. Um we're very prideful of the old boss. We very uh we always want people like it makes us feel good when people admire him and say nice things about him. And I do love this time of year every year when Obama comes out, does a couple of rallies, and everyone is just they swoon over it. Like I find that very enjoyable cuz it is reminder that he is remains the best communicator in American politics for his generation and maybe some generations to come. So good. And the reason why you see that in this case is like this is how you do modern communications, which is impressive for a guy who's been out of office for a long time now. Is you find the thing that is viral, the thing that people are paying attention to, the people are talking about, and then you attach a real argument to it. You take you you It's attention hijacking, basically. And

so, he makes this joke, which was just kind of a throwaway joke in a rally that was quite funny. The right wing reacts to it, you know, Trump takes the bait, they do it, and then he Obama sees this opportunity to punch back, but do punch back in a way that actually advances the argument, which is the difference between Trump and Obama, or Trump and the and Obama and the right wing here, which is They have no argument about the Cheesecake Factory. It's just they keep crying like they're Even if you could sell like people on the idea that Barack Obama was an elitist for it, how is that helping you win an election?

Is that helping you beat Sherrod Brown, or Annie Andrews, or Josh Turek? It's just It's It's idiotic grievance politics. Obama, he could just get into a pissing match with Trump, which he would have He enjoys doing here, but then he takes it one step further to make it turn into a case for Democrats and a case against Republicans.

Yeah, I mean, look, the most difficult part of responding to that is the whole Cheesecake Factory fiasco is so nuts on so many different levels. It's like the elitist thing is crazy, but also the like Yes, we're making fun of Trump's interior design aesthetic, because all he does is just renovate the White House in his elder years here as he is sundowning while at war in Iran, and he's just running around the White House. And then, the way that Trump responds to all of it is by going down to Mississippi First of all, Mississippi, where he feels the need to campaign, and talking to a crowd about the the fine artisans they're using in the White House, and how he used exterior plaster, and skim coating So much skim coating. Talking about skim coating. And then, like literally right after Obama delivered the riff we just heard, Trump spent several hours truth in photos of the government-owned golf course,

uh, East Potomac, that he's been trying to renovate over over a judge's orders, yes, cuz he cut down a bunch of trees and in the truth claimed that the problems with the driving range netting caused a White House staffer to be quote sadly hit violently in the chest.

So it's like what do you expect? And all these people being like oh Obama's like Donald Trump is out there talking about his golf course how he's going to renovate that and then Obama talks about the best part of it is like Obama does the Cheesecake Factory joke. Everyone's like all right, this is our opportunity to turn the attention away from Donald Trump and his corruption and the fact that he's out of touch and the fact that everyone's pissed and we're going to make we're going to do this fake uh thing about Obama being elitist. Great. And then Trump's like uh nope I'm not playing that game. I'm not doing the play.

Yeah. Instead, I'm actually hurt by the joke because I love my home renovations

He loves it. and I think my my sense of design is top-notch and so I'm going to talk about it even more.

It's really the only thing that he cares about. That's it. He he was genuinely hurt

by Obama's joke because he takes great pride in all of the he's doing at taxpayer expense and the expense of focusing on the problems that most people care about and have.

It's just he just cannot help himself. He can't help That makes really it's a gift. I mean imagine like this would be a hard political environment for anyone but he insists on making it worse every day.

It's like what is the critique of me and how can I double and triple down on making it effective?

I also I would love some New York Times, Wall Street Journal, whoever reporting on the backstory of how Bessent got to the Cheesecake Factory. Like what were the conversations?

How did it end up being him? How was it of all the people of Yes. all the people you

It couldn't be It couldn't be RFK Jr. So he probably's off the list. You were you were trying to portray the ex-president as elitist for a jab about the Cheesecake Factory so you send Scott Bessent to the Cheesecake Factory to talk about his French dip.

It's like how did Sean Duffy not get that task? Anyone. I I I don't Pete Hegseth for God's sake. I don't anyone.

Did J.D. Vance? J.D. Vance. He probably volunteered and they told him no. They're like, "You can't pull this off, sir."

It It is goes back to like the trying to lose the midterms. Sending Scott Bessent is something you would do if you were trying to lose the midterms.

Yes. Yes. I remember I think David Axelrod said this to you when you were talking to him, which is if he were trying to lose the midterms, what would he be doing differently? Right, if he wasn't trying to lose midterms, what would he be doing differently?

I don't know. I don't know. All right, there's one new message uh Trump is pushing in the final stretch about Democrats uh that may or may not stick. Uh let's listen.

Mary Peltola should resign from the race. I think she should be prosecuted criminally for what she did.

Whoa. Okay. Whoa. What did she do, John? Well, for those just tuning in, uh that's him responding to the Times report on Wednesday that Peltola's team worked with the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee last summer to find other people named Dan Sullivan to get into the race and draw votes away from the incumbent with the same name, Senator Dan Sullivan. They succeeded, of course. Uh and as we've discussed, uh the DOJ has filed a lawsuit to try to stop Alaska from certifying a Peltola win if it appears to be the result of the other Sullivan's presence on the ballot.

On Thursday morning, the Republican governor of Alaska ordered an investigation into the effort even though an Alaska court already ruled that other Dan Sullivan could be on the ballot. It's unclear what if any laws could have been broken. And uh Republicans worked to help spoilers all the time, uh including in Alaska during the cycle's primary. Um So, question that I hear a lot of people asking, and it's a good one. Why would Democrats do this in the first place, especially in a state where you have a ranked choice between four names anyway?

Um like it doesn't seem like it would have the maximum effect because if you you could just rank both Sullivans if you were confused somehow. Um

Yeah. Let's start there and then we can talk about the I can't really figure out why this was worth that level of effort.

Same. That was that was sort of my first reaction. Now, if someone just looked at the first Dan Sullivan they saw and it was the other the other Dan Sullivan, not the Senator Dan Sullivan, and then put their second choice who was not named Dan Sullivan second, then that would solve the problem. But if if someone got in there and they were like legitimately confused about which Dan Sullivan they were supporting and they just put them one and two, then that that person then Dan Sullivan Center would get that vote in the second round of ranked choice voting.

Yes. So it seems a little like overcomplicating the simple. Now, Alaska has it Alaska is challenging because it's a ranked choice vote and they have a four-person primary. So that ends with the four top people being on the ballot and so they went they think this was smart, they went to great efforts to ensure there was no Democrat other Democrat on the ballot.

Uh And like ultimately the larger math here is you can't in a ranked choice vote and you can't lower the winner below 50 cuz that's the whole point of ranked choice voting is you've got to get to 50 in multiple errors, but you know, I think they thought that if you want if you had multiple Republicans, multiple Dan Sullivans, you might get to the second ballot with Mary Peltola winning.

Right. So you know, there's been a sort of an outcry even not not just on the right, but you know, people who are more center left, moderate, some Democrats were just like, you know, we should should condemn this. This was wrong. And I like so Alaska Public Media went and interviewed a bunch of voters about this and voters who were like either Republicans were voting for Peltola or independents or you know, some not like Mary Peltola fans necessarily, but so one voter who's a unregistered like no party voter um who I think is going to go for Peltola said, "It does give, I think as some of the kids would describe it, icky vibes.

But, at the same time, I think voters are intelligent and can figure out how to rank and can figure out which Dan Sullivan is their person." And I think that's where I land on the whole thing. Like, icky, but also like if it's within the law, which it sounds like it is.

not illegal. It's not illegal. is not illegal. Ballot stacking is not illegal. And is it like a campaign dirty trick like the kind that Republicans do all the time? Yeah. But, it's like if we want to make it illegal, we should make it illegal. If we don't If we think it's wrong wrong enough that it shouldn't be allowed, then there should be laws against it. Right, there are

There are several questions here. There is one, is it illegal? It is not. Two, is it unprecedented? It's absolutely unprecedented. Campaigns do this all the time. In fact, you may remember from that dark period of time known as 2020 that uh allies of Trump recruited Kanye West to run for president in the hope that it would siphon black voters away from Joe Biden. There are efforts underway on both sides to promote third-party candidates in the races where they think that's going to help them. If there's a socialist on the ballot, they're going to try to promote that socialist. The Republicans and the Trump campaign did this with Jill Stein in 2016.

[snorts] Like we have like this is not spend money on this. They promote these candidates.

You normally need like a pass-through separate super PAC. Like it's it is it is legal, but sketchy as basically all campaign finances these days. Um and then there's the question, was this advisable? You know, you know, it's probably not as beneficial. If there were two Dan Sullivans, there was no ranked-choice voting, that would be more impactful than this, but it probably helps on the margins in what is it, you know, it certainly looks to be a very hard, but winnable race. And then there's the question of now that this has been revealed, is it going to hurt Mary Peltola?

Right. This is a big question. I I mean I can't take a few interviews from Alaska Public Media to tell me that it's not going to do it. I would be surprised if it had an impact. I would. And I've And I've seen some I've seen some social listening data which shows that this story is not exactly rocketing across either nationally or in the state. So, I can't you know obviously in a close race everything makes a difference. I would I don't think this is a game changer.

Yeah, I thought I thought that the piece by Alaska Public Media was like a good focus group, right? It's not hard data, but you know, registered Republican planning to vote for Peltola said, "This is nothing we haven't seen before or heard before. Um and then someone else said, "Both sides play pretty dirty pool and if you're stupid enough that you can't tell the difference between an incumbent and a non-incumbent, I don't have any patience for you. Alaskans are smarter than that."

That's what Trump is the one who said people were too dumb to know what an incumbent was.

there's a little bit of that where it's like you hear about the news and you're probably like, "Well, that's kind of scummy, right? Like that's kind of gross that they did that, but what's the different like I thought that's what politics is and that's why I don't like politics and probably hate both parties equally." Like this is probably your median voter, right? And also, "What do you think we're dumb and we can't figure out the difference between an incumbent and not an incumbent?" Like there's also a little bit of that, too, which is like what What what are you talking about?

Like we It says right there, "Dan Senator Dan Sullivan or Dan Sullivan incumbent." And then the other one is Daniel J. Sullivan. And now, I mean, it's public enough and it's getting enough attention that I'm sure there won't be much confusion.

which is one of the arguments for why political arguments for Trump doing the lawsuit, right? It's to draw attention to this.

Right. Um now, I think that so we got the DOJ now trying to investigate. We've got the House Oversight Committee, subpoenas here and there. Like I don't know where any of this goes, but it does seem like unless there is some kind of a campaign finance violation in all of this, right? Like or there's some kind of sketchy financing that's more that's actually illegal and not sketchy, none of the other stuff seems like it is um even close to breaking the law.

Right. I mean, this is ultimately in their minds pretext for a very very long shot to somehow prevent Mary Peltola's election win from being certified.

Yep. Siding voter confusion. Like that like Marc Elias had a good piece on this which got went to like they they drafted the complaint in the suit to make to set the case for or set the context for claiming that voters were confused, which could be an argument that could be used. Although it'd be very very hard I think to prevail on that argument to prevent Peltola from winning from being seated if she won.

And just so everyone knows, uh if Alaska goes to a ranked-choice tabulation because uh no one hits 50%, um November 18th is the date they do that.

[snorts] So, buckle up, folks. It's going to be a fun few weeks. This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. We all have those persistent things taking up way too much real estate in our brains. It could be a nagging problem at work, an interpersonal conflict that we just can't seem to crack, or even embarrassing things from our youth that play on endless loop the minute we lay our heads down to sleep. It doesn't have to be like this. Therapy can help you evict intrusive thoughts and reclaim that precious space in your brain. Start the process today with BetterHelp. BetterHelp therapists are licensed, experienced professionals such as psychologists, marriage and family therapists, social workers, and counselors. They have at least 3 years and 1,000 hours of hands-on experience and have the required education, training, exams, and practice.

BetterHelp does the initial matching work for you so you can focus on your therapy goals. A short questionnaire helps you identify your needs and preferences and our 10-plus years of experience and industry-leading match fulfillment rate means we typically get it right the first time. If you aren't happy with your match, switch to a different therapist at any time from our tailored recommendations with no hassle. Therapy is great. You might not think you need it. I didn't think I needed it for the first 40 years of my life, and then you try it out and you realize it helps to talk to someone about anything that's on your mind and anything that's going on in the world and your life, and after a while it just you feel better.

BetterHelp is now in network with more than 125 health plans with many co-pays as low as $15 for eligible members. And if you don't have eligible insurance or live outside the US, you can still get 10 to 20% off your first month. Sign up and get 10% off at betterhelp.com/psa. That's betterh e l p.com/psa. But yeah, so it seems like the most significant consequence here could be, you know, Republicans using the episode as another justification for meddling with elections in the name of rooting out fraud. Um thankfully we haven't seen too many uh troubling signs of that yet, aside from already the Alaska thing they tried to do. They also tried to uh force California to set aside um a bunch of ballots that the federal government is claiming are non-citizen ballots, though an appeals court just said, "No, they can't do that."

Um Uh but there was a there was also a disturbing MS Now story this week about how FBI agents are telling people they're scared they may be ordered to seize voting machines or interfere with people's rights in other ways. Again, it's just a few FBI agents that talked to MS Now, um but still. Um also according to government court filings, ICE and FBI agents will not be acting as poll monitors, but ATF, DEA, and Bureau of Prisons officers will. Uh but they won't be acting as law enforcement officers while they do, and they won't be carrying firearms. Yay.

What do you think people should know about this, Stan? Because, you know, the most common question you get is like, are we going to have a midterm? What's going to happen? Is he going to with it? If I know the polls show Democrats winning, but like, what is he going to do to screw this up?

I think let's start with the fact that yes, Donald Trump would like to interfere with these elections. He would like to do that. He but more than interfering with them, he wants not just to stop the election, he wants you to think he's going to stop the election so that you will voluntarily seed your own political power. You will think your vote will not count. This is what all the stuff about mail balloting is. And we cannot let that happen. And he And here's the thing. More [snorts] than 40 million people have already voted.

Yeah. Right? Donald Trump has a lot less power than he thinks he has when it comes to elections. He doesn't decide how they're administered, he doesn't decide when they're administered, he doesn't count the votes, he doesn't certify the election. He does all he has almost nothing he can do there. And so the thing that I would just encourage everyone is to recognize that Trump is going to try things that Democrats really do have been thinking about this for a very long time. They You get a lot of criticism in the Democratic Party. One thing that we've been very good at is election law over the years. And the best and the brightest in our party have been working on this for very long time. They're working on it right now.

Our job is not to be deterred from voting, not to be freaked out about it. It's to go vote, to get our friends to vote, to make sure our vote counts, and try and go Let's just go win the election. And if we win by enough, nothing they do can stop us.

going to say it's to borrow the Trump campaign mantra from 2024, too big to rig. Like the the larger the margin, the harder it is to pull something off. You know, it's it's Where you get problems is if it's like we're up and we're waiting and there's a recount and it's like a 0.2% difference and then then that's when Trump jumps in, you know? But that's why you got The best thing you can do to like prevent this is like, you know, get a bunch of people who might not have have a plan to vote to have a plan to vote.

And don't freak everyone else out about it, either. You know, there was this thing that happened a few weeks ago where there was this photo taken of these National Guard members standing in front of a ballot box in DC.

Oh, I missed that. Went immediately viral. Everyone freaked out about it. There's no evidence they were doing anything other than standing in front of the ballot box. You know, I don't know that I trust the government officials who said that, but I also don't think that Trump's plan to steal the elections is going to start with the DC mayoral election. Um but that went viral. People are like, "Oh my god, the National Guard's coming out of that." It's like like be calm, carry on, go vote. If we all vote, they cannot stop us.

Stay in line if you're there when polls close. If there's a problem with your registration or eligibility, you can ask the election official about the remedy for that. You can get a provisional ballot where that's available. And you can always report intimidation or voting problems to 866-R-VOTE, 866-687-8683 by call or text. So everyone have that number. All right, Dan, speaking of election day, we thought we'd talk a bit about what the two of us will be watching for as the results start to come in. Got me nervous just saying that.

What's on your list? So, I want to start with some House races. I'm I did a little bit of some poll across I'm going to write a much fuller thing for message box, but just as the polls close on the East Coast, what are the races we should be watching to see how that may be harbingers of things to come. And I'm going to start with Kentucky 6. Polls close in Kentucky first. Kentucky 6 is the seat held by Andy Barr, who is running for the Republican nominee for this for the McConnell seat. He That's his district that Trump won by about 15 points. We have a great Democratic candidate in Zack Dembo there. This race has been seen as competitive.

Republicans are very worried about it. Look at the results there. That'll be the our first sign of whether of how big the wave is. If Dembo is immediately very competitive or even ahead, that's very positive. Then we're going to get poll closings in North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, and Georgia. In Florida, it's Florida 27 that I'm very interested in. That's Maria

Carolina? Yeah, and South Carolina. South Carolina a little bit less interesting on the House races, but in Florida, the House race that is Florida 27 I'm most interested in. That's the Maria Elvira Salazar seat. She's the one who did that very aggressive ad sort of breaking with Trump on immigration. It's a It's a district that Trump won by 15 points. Heavily Latino. Very interested to see what's going on there. The caution I would give is and Nate made this point on Still Counting as well, that how Latinos in Florida move doesn't isn't going to tell us how Latinos in the Rio Grande Valley move, but still I think very interesting. And also, if they don't call that race for Ashley Moody quickly, that'll be very interesting as well.

In North Carolina, I'm interested in North Carolina 11, which is the seat that was the Chuck Edwards seat before he resigned. And Jimmy Aggers there. Republicans have pulled out of that seat out of that race. Jimmy Aggers running there. He's a He's a fourth-generation farmer. Very interested to see it was This of going to tell us a little bit about how Democrats are doing in rural areas. In Virginia, we got a bunch of House races. The one that I'm going to look at is Virginia 5, which is a Trump +12 district, which is where our old friend Tom Perriello is running for Congress again. This is sort of in and around the Charlottesville area. Um this was supposed to be a very Democratic district if the Virginia maps had come in.

Um so I'm fascinated by that one, and if that one is very competitive and they count votes fast in Virginia, another very positive sign. And then in another one I'm going to look at, which closes a little bit later, is Alabama. Alabama 2, which is uh this is the district that the Republicans redrew after the Clay decision. This is Shomari Figures, who is in this race is the incumbent Democrat. Republicans have gotten very worried about this seat in recent days. It's a Trump +15 district. This is [snorts] our This is going to be our sign about black turnout across the South. I think we'll be in this district cuz even though it's much it has many fewer black voters than it had before, it still has a high black population. So I'm very interested in that one. Then we're going to get to Texas. And then our our friend Bobby Politto. I'm interested Very interested in that race is another one. A bunch of races in

Pennsylvania as well. And then I mentioned it earlier, but um in New York, New York 21. I think I'll be very interested in seeing how that goes.

I mean, I don't have too much to add to that. I think Virginia's interesting because there's three House races there.

Yeah. And it's sort of like a ladder of how good the night's going. So like Virginia 2, um I think Nate's model has that uh you know, projected it D +5.9 right now. That's Elaine Luria. She's running to get her seat back. So that's like the um the most gettable, right? I think that's like

And they Trump won that by like less than a point, right? Right. So we should absolutely get that one.

Yeah. And then uh there's uh Shannon Taylor is running against Rob Whitman in Virginia 1. That is lean D. It's like Nate has it as like D +1.6. So then if we're also winning that, that's you know, that's good too. That's a little bit better. And then Virginia 5. I mean, Nate has that as R +5.8 at likely R right now. So I think it like if Tom Perriello is winning in Virginia 5, that's a really good night.

Yeah. That's or at least that's a harbinger of a really good night. Yes. And you know, I I when I did that I did our Sunday podcast with Amy Walter a few weeks ago, it's worth like these are all potential signs. It's not we should be it may be that the wave does not hit

That's true. in the the same way in every single geographic area or demographic group.

Right. Right. It may hit better in red states and blue states. Like you may see underperformance in New York in some places, but overperformance is like in Iowa 2 and Iowa

Maybe better in heavily Latino places than white than wider areas. Same thing with black voters as you just mentioned in Alabama. So yeah, you have to sort of look at the demographic representation of the race that you're looking at in order to sort of make or to compare it to like other places like that all around the country.

And then Michigan is going to be like obviously we're everyone's going to have their eyes glued on Michigan, but there is just so much interesting stuff there. Obviously Abdul's race, but then you got a bunch of interesting house races in Michigan. Ones that Democrats should win like Michigan 7, there's Michigan 9, there is how the governor does, you know, relative to how Jocelyn Benson does relative to Abdul just like that is going to be a very very fast one. You're going to have a bunch of these different benchmarks you can use to look to measure success and like which voter groups you're doing well with.

[snorts] Another thing is some of these like I saw this about Michigan, too. You know, it Michigan can count slow sometimes and if Abdul is down or some of these house candidates are down and it's like 1:00 in the morning, but the votes that we're waiting for tend to be like, you know, areas like Detroit or places like that like

Or we hope. Yeah, right. You just got to wait. You just got to wait. Yeah, it's it's Michigan I think is the one that I mean maybe maybe Abdul's new polls be right and Abdul will win relatively easy, but that's one you can see yourself waiting for Wayne County and being very which is where Detroit is being very nervous about, because there are quite There have been questions based on his primary performance, although it hasn't showed up in all the polls, about how he'll do with black voters. And so, you don't know what you're going to net out of there. So, it's It's The whole thing is fascinating. Scary,

Scary. Yeah. Uh last thing before we go, we know you're probably feeling anxious about how Tuesday's going to go, and uh you're not alone. We thought we'd play some questions from our subscriber-only voicemail line, uh and take a crack at responding.

Hi, this is Ted calling from New York. I heard yesterday a recent NPR poll which looked not great. Low enthusiasm for uh younger voters. Little bit of a bucket of cold water. So, I'm wondering, hoping you can uh you can address that poll. Thank you.

Hello, this is Brian. I'm calling from Medford, Massachusetts. What if all these polls are wrong? I'm seriously worried that we're going to have a serious miss, and like the blue tsunami is going to be more like a blue trickle, kind of similar to how the 2022 midterms turned out.

[snorts] Thanks, though. Hey, this is Jen in Philly. I'm wondering, is there historical election data showing whether there's a point in the run-up to a a midterm or even a general when the polling leader becomes meaningfully predictive of the eventual outcome? Is it possible that's a real predictive factor, or can you offer similar reassurances for the bed-wetters?

[snorts] Thanks for what you're doing. I do appreciate Jen trying a different avenue there. Like, is it Can I I'm looking for certainty so bad that I just want to know, is there a specific date by which it is more predictive? I I really respect that question. Um Go ahead, Dan.

So much there, right? And this is we I mean, I I know you hear it, too, from everyone you talk to. This is the fear about the polls. That somehow the polls are wrong, that we're going to This is going to be 2016 or 2020. And I'd say a couple of things with that. One, a polling error is very possible. And you also don't need a polling error for us not to take the Senate. As I mentioned before, the polls could be right and and in all these margin of in a margin of error race, either outcome is within the range of possible outcomes.

So, the polls could be historically correct and Ashley Hinson could win in Iowa because she's only down like two points in the polls whatever it is. Right? Same thing in basically in all of these states. We should not assume Well, and then second second I'd say it is worth noting that the polls are more accurate in midterms than general elections. Like that has been the case the polls were relatively accurate in 2018 and 2022. I just would state again that we should not assume that every single polling error is bad for Democrats.

In fact, in 2022 in the individual states where the polls were off, half of them were off underestimating Democrats.

Mhm. And previous like in 2012, the polls underestimated Barack Obama. Like that does happen and it is possible that the pollsters are so worried about not counting Republican voters that they're waiting they're overcompensating waiting the polls in the wrong direction. That is what happened in 2025 when um in Virginia there was a six-point error and in New Jersey there was almost there was a 10-point error all underestimating Democrats.

I would say put all the polls aside, pretend there were no polls. Um and you had to uh predict sort of what's going to happen just based on the environment. Last time Donald Trump was president and there was a midterm election, it was 2018. The economy was doing quite well. He was only 2 years into his term. And um there was no war in Iran. He went into that midterm, he lost the popular vote by 8 and 1/2 points. Now, this is the second time he's uh been president uh where where there's a midterm. And there is a war going on in the Middle East that we are involved in that has spiked gas prices to a level that they have never been on [snorts] election day in as long as we can remember.

On top of inflation, on top of tariffs that have been also hurting consumers, uh, in a period where um, people's, uh, inflation has outpaced people's wages. And if you put all that together and you think he he lost by eight and a half points last time, it it reasons it stands to reason that this time around it would at least be eight and a half or more, but probably more.

Yeah. Especially because now he's been president, I mean, think of everything that's happened between 2018 and now, there was the whole insurrection thing, there was and like we've seen, you know, his approval rating even in the elections, um, where he outperformed his polls, worse than they were in 2018.

Yeah. And so it's like just if you if you just put all the polls aside and you never looked at a poll and you looked at the map, you would think, yeah, he's going to do at least if not worse, at least as bad if not worse and probably worse than 2018 when it was eight and a half points. If it's eight and a half points this time, does it guarantee that we win the Senate? No, because again, you need to like some of these states are like double-digit Trump wins. But, you know, if it's 10 and a half points like the Time Sienna poll has it nationally, yeah, that's probably enough to to take the Senate.

I mean, a blue wave is coming. It's just a question whether it's big enough to to wash the Democrats into the Senate majority.

Yeah, and I think and I think it was like, you know, it was it was fun for some pundits to talk about a blue trickle for a while, but like if we don't win the Senate, but we win the House, get a bunch of seats and we come close in the Senate, pick up a few seats, like that's not a blue trickle.

No. It's just not. Just the last thing on 2022, everyone's focused on this, the polls were right in 2022. The Republicans never had anywhere near a 8-point, 9-point, 10-point, 11-point generic ballot. It was like three points. And they ended up winning by like two and a half. It is the the the idea of the red wave is not born out by the polls. It came from bad analysis of the polls. The polls were actually correct and they predicted what you would get, which is a narrow Republican House victory and Democrats holding the Senate, which is what we got.

All that said, of course there could be a polling error. Yeah. Of course. We can't give you that certainty. The only certainty we could give you is um if you go have some conversations with people about politics and make sure your friends and everyone in your social network has a plan to vote and uh that you're available to ask any questions if they're not sure to vote for Democrats, then you're going to be in good shape. There's plenty There's plenty to do between now and Tuesday. You go to votesaveamerica.com and we will uh we will have find plenty for you to do.

Find five people in your life who you think may not have voted yet and remind them to vote now.

It's the best thing you could do. It's the best thing you could do. And the next best thing you could do is to become a subscriber. Uh become a friend of the pod because then your voicemail could end up on this show. And more than that, you get ad-free episodes, you get all kinds of subscriber-only benefits and shows that we do.

Coaster, the essential the essential the essential subscriber show. Uh and you get to support. It's the best way to support the work we're doing here at Crooked, which is to try to make sure we have more pro-democracy independent media in this country um because uh right now there's too much right-wing slop out there. So, uh go to crooked.com/friends and subscribe. Thank you to Ted, Brian, and Jen for calling in. And a reminder, you too can leave us a voicemail with your questions if you sign up to be a friend of the pod subscriber. That's our show for today. Tommy will be back in the feed on Sunday talking with CNN's Harry Enten about the state of the race in the closing days. Then Tommy and Lovett and I will have your regularly scheduled Pod Save America on Tuesday morning. And on Tuesday night, Dan will be here in LA with the three of us for election night livestream and then a late-night bonus episode that'll be

out Wednesday. So, lots of content coming. Talk to you soon. Bye everyone. Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production. Our show is produced by Austin Fisher, Saul Rubin, McKenna Roberts, and Michael Goldsmith with Reed Cherlin, Elijah Cohen, and Adrian Hill. Our team includes Matt DeGroot, Ben Herfkott, Jordan Canter, Charlotte Landis, Kenny Moffitt, Adam Lifshitz, Joseph Dutra, Desmond Taylor, Dan Fair, David Tolls, Mia Kelman, Ryan Young, and Naomi Single. Our staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.

Questions about this episode

Who speaks in "A Blue Wave is Coming for Trump. How Big Will It Be?"?

Jon Favreau (Host), Dan Pfeiffer (Host), Alex Wagner (Host), Keisha Lance Bottoms (Guest), Barack Obama (Guest), Jon Ossoff (Guest), Darlene Graham (Guest), Annie Andrews (Guest).

What is "A Blue Wave is Coming for Trump. How Big Will It Be?" about?

The content previews a political discussion focusing on Trump’s rally in South Carolina, campaign dynamics in Georgia and Alaska, near-final polling, and voter anxieties ahead of the midterms, with updates on election-night coverage and related events. It also mentions plan for live Q&A and appearances at Crooked Con.

What is mentioned in this Pod Save America episode?

36 people, works and ideas are mentioned, including Pod Save America, Dan Pfeiffer, John Favreau, South Carolina, Crooked Media, Barack Obama. Each one on this page links to its own page with every episode that mentions it.

How long is "A Blue Wave is Coming for Trump. How Big Will It Be?"?

The episode runs 1 h 10 min; the transcript is about 14,047 words in 208 timestamped sections.

More from Pod Save America

About this transcript: the episode's spoken words as captioned on YouTube, split into timestamped sections. Reclip.Me locates every person, work and idea in the text, keeps the time it is first named, and quotes the words around it verbatim. Last updated November 3, 2026.