Dems could flip even MORE seats after historic wave midterm night (Pod Save Bonus)

What this episode is about

Democrats are riding a historic midterm wave, with early results showing control of a stronger Senate and House majority than many expected, while pundits and past predictions are reassessed as results roll in. The discussion includes live reactions, polling references, and reflections on notable forecasts.

Key takeaways

• Election night rawness aside, petty victories can rally a base—until they erode credibility with broader audiences.
• Abdul El-Sayed’s win underscores how identity and policy intersect: historic milestones matter, but risks to safety narratives linger.
• Polls and pundits misfired together: the real story is how late-stage trends outpaced early expectations—again.
• Sports metaphors aside, Michigan’s OSU jab highlighted how regional rivalries still shape political narratives and memes.
• Vance’s focus on cost of living and war signals voters crave tangible economic security over abstract ideological pivots.

Who speaks in this episode?

• Dan (Guest) · 6 min speaking
• Jon (Host) · 4 min speaking

What is discussed, and when

1. 0:00 – 5:00: Michigan, Mike Rogers, Crooked Media, Washington DC
2. 5:00 – 10:00: J.D. Vance, Israel, Donald Trump, Fox & Friends
3. 10:00 – 15:00: Alaska, Mississippi, Crooked Media, Mary Peltola
4. 15:00 – 20:00: Florida, Chuck Schumer, Angie Nixon, Republican Party
5. 20:00 – 25:00: Mike Johnson, Republican Party, Crooked Media, Vote Save America
6. 25:00 – 25:38: John Favreau

Notable quotes from "Dems could flip even MORE seats after historic wave midterm night (Pod Save Bonus)"

• And bask in the glow of this victorious glory one more time. by the way, please like this video, share this video, subscribe to Podsave America on YouTube. It really helps us…

  about Pod Save America · at 0:23

• Not only are we going to New Hampshire, Tom Harkin, we're going to South Carolina and Texas and Michigan, AND THEN WE'RE GOING TO WASHINGTON DC TO TAKE BACK THE WHITE HOUSE. [screaming] YEAH. A. [snorts].

  about Michigan · at 1:15

• One thing we didn't get to say last night cuz the race wasn't called is the historic first the that Abdul just achieved which is the first Crooked Media podcaster in the Senate.

  about Abdul El-Sayed · at 3:05

• That nakedly racist and bigoted a campaign and let's just be honest like Mike Rogers, Donald Trump calling him a terrorist, calling him a jihadist, they were putting Abdul's…

  about Donald Trump · at 4:45

• Three, put America first. Four, change our relationship to Israel. JD later writes, The reason we lost is the war.

  about J.D. Vance · at 5:53

• On Brandon Presley, who ran for governor in almost won recently, was pointing out that the remaining county, the main county where the most votes are left in Mississippi, is a…

  about Mississippi · at 14:40

• So expensive. Schumer and them didn't go in on Texas until later. Yeah. Like relatively speaking. And so if Angie Nixon was running in South Carolina or Mississippi, you could…

  about Florida · at 17:17

• Yesterday he tweeted, Holy cow, I'm screaming. Republicans just flipped the governorship of Guam from blue to red.

  about Republican Party · at 19:32

Who and what is mentioned in this episode?

People

• J.D. Vance — Person · Referenced politician and commentator · 6 mentions · first at 3:36
  Former Trump administration official and 2028 presidential hopeful whose tweets and op-ed-length take on the election, the Iran war, and relationship with Israel were discussed and critiqued extensively.
• Donald Trump — Person · Referenced former president and driver of administration policy · 3 mentions · first at 4:49
  Mentioned as the central political figure whose decisions (including on the Iran war and statements about candidates) shaped the administration's actions and Republican politics discussed in the episode.
• Abdul El-Sayed — Person · Referenced newly elected senator (victor in Michigan) · 1 mention · first at 2:00
  Celebrated as the winner of the Michigan Senate race; hosts discussed his victory speech (joke about JD Vance) and historic firsts (first Crooked Media podcaster in the Senate, first Muslim senator for Michigan).
• Dan Pfeiffer — Person · Co-host · 1 mention · first at 0:13
  One of the Pod Save America hosts contributing analysis and commentary throughout the episode.
  Angeles. We are blurry eyed, a touch hung over, but libbing out harder than we have lived out in decades. We literally had to beg Dan to turn off the Hamilton soundtrack before we started recording. Not going to miss your shot, Dan.
• Tommy Vietor — Person · Co-host · 4 mentions · first at 0:00
  One of the Podcast's hosts offering commentary and analysis throughout the episode.
  [clears throat] lashing out about it, not like a 100% their choice. The second is the Israel part. I'm a bit surprised that relationship to Israel was a top four issue. it does…
• Chuck Schumer — Person · Referenced Senate leader and decision focal point · 4 mentions · first at 16:01
  Discussed in context of Senate strategy, resource allocation decisions for competitive races, and credit for spending decisions that helped win seats.
  Big a majority as you can possibly get. But what you have to do is get the majority. If you spend a bunch of money when you're at a massive resource disadvantage on a bunch of…
• Mike Rogers — Person · Defeated Michigan Senate candidate · 3 mentions · first at 2:03
  Republican opponent to Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate race; hosts criticized his campaign rhetoric and bigoted attacks discussed in the episode.
  Like I mean we talk about how Obama got a lot of hate and other candidates like I mean they just called him a terrorist you know like the his opponent the president of the…
• John Favreau — Person · Co-host · 2 mentions · first at 3:27
  One of the Pod Save America hosts, contributing analysis and commentary occasionally referenced by first name.
  Angeles. We are blurry eyed, a touch hung over, but libbing out harder than we have lived out in decades. We literally had to beg Dan to turn off the Hamilton soundtrack before we started recording. Not going to miss your shot, Dan.
• Mary Peltola — Person · Candidate in Alaska Senate race · 2 mentions · first at 13:14
  One of the top contenders in the Alaska Senate contest (discussed alongside Dan Sullivan); race noted as close and likely to use ranked-choice tabulation.
  Pollah and Sullivan are nearly tied with over 70% of the vote counted. and unless one of them pulls away and gets over 50%, it's probably going to take a while because they…
• Benjamin Netanyahu — Person · Referenced political leader · 1 mention · first at 11:20
  Mentioned in discussion about U.S. policy toward Israel and as shorthand for Israeli policy preferences in the Iran/Israel debate
  Know BB Netanyahu wants me to bomb Pickax Mountain with a nuke you know option. [snorts] The really hard part of the administration and why the Iran the Iraq comparison is…
• John Lovett — Person · Co-host · 3 mentions · first at 0:00
  One of the Pod Save America hosts; referenced in the show credits/context as part of the hosting team.
  Jon Favreau, Jon Lovett, Dan Pfeiffer, and Tommy Vietor.
• Angie Nixon — Person · Referenced Florida candidate · 3 mentions · first at 15:29
  Mentioned as an example of a Florida candidate where some criticized allocation decisions; her race raised questions about whether Democrats should have invested more in Florida.
  So expensive. Schumer and them didn't go in on Texas until later. Yeah. Like relatively speaking. And so if Angie Nixon was running in South Carolina or Mississippi, you could…
• Mike Johnson — Person · Referenced outgoing House Republican leader · 3 mentions · first at 20:30
  Mentioned for resigning as House Minority Leader after a major House loss; hosts joked about his brief speakership and legacy.
  There is no moderate precedent for this Democratic tsunami. The ballot may end up being D plus13. and Mike Johnson just announced he will not run for House Minority Leader. I…
• Dan Sullivan — Person · Referenced incumbent Alaska senator · 1 mention · first at 13:12
  Mentioned as the Republican candidate in Alaska's close Senate contest against Mary Peltola, with race potentially decided by ranked-choice tabulation.
  Pollah and Sullivan are nearly tied with over 70% of the vote counted. and unless one of them pulls away and gets over 50%, it's probably going to take a while because they…
• Brandon Presley — Person · Referenced regional politician/analyst · 1 mention · first at 14:40
  Cited as pointing out county-level vote patterns in Mississippi that favored the Democratic candidate, used to argue optimism about a Democratic chance in the Mississippi Senate race
  And then in Mississippi, it seems based on Brandon Presley, who ran for governor in almost won recently, was pointing out that the remaining county, the main county where the most votes are left in.
• Jim Jordan — Person · Referenced Republican politician · 1 mention · first at 20:57
  Mentioned briefly in reference to running for House Republican leadership after a large GOP loss in the midterms
  If it was in front of me, I can see it today. Yeah, I see a lot of blue going to the right. So, that's the big Oh, it's it's the by the years it is the biggest.
• Ben Wikler — Person · Referenced state party leader · 1 mention · first at 23:23
  Named in celebrating Democratic state-level successes (Wisconsin trifecta), credited for state organizing and wins
  So new Democratic trifectas, governorship and the state legislature, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, congrats to Ben Wickler and all our friends in Wisconsin. Minnesota and.
• Nate Silver — Person · Data analyst referenced · 2 mentions · first at 20:24
  Mentioned for tweeting a map and as a representative of poll/forecasting analysis used to interpret the size of the Democratic wave.
  Was. Here is a graph from the New York Times from a Nate Con piece titled, There is no moderate precedent for this Democratic tsunami. The ballot may end up being D plus13. and…
• Ann Selzer — Person · Referenced pollster · 1 mention · first at 1:50
  Mentioned approvingly for having been accurate on an Iowa call (insight into polling credibility)
  Just like Anne Seltzer with that Iowa poll.
• Marco Rubio — Person · Referenced Republican example/strategy · 1 mention · first at 9:36
  Mentioned as an example of a political operator who aligns with the administration while avoiding explicit discussion of controversial issues (advice for JD Vance's political strategy).
  I think that you do what Marco Rubio has done, which is be the administration and just never say the word Iran.
• Benny Johnson — Person · Right-wing influencer referenced · 1 mention · first at 18:13
  Shown in a clip reacting pessimistically to early returns; hosts mocked his premature predictions that the blue wave was not materializing.
  Mega influencer Benny Johnson looking at the votes coming in yesterday before the polls closed. Let's watch. Benny, if Florida and Texas are any indicators, then you are going…
• Scott Presler — Person · Referenced right-wing activist/influencer · 1 mention · first at 19:14
  Raised as an example of a pundit reacting to election results with partisan cheer; hosts criticize his credibility and style
  Yesterday he tweeted, Holy cow, I'm screaming. Republicans just flipped the governorship of Guam from blue to red.
• Clay Travis — Person · Referenced media personality/critic · 1 mention · first at 19:49
  Mentioned as an example of commentators who showed no introspection after the midterms; hosts call out his poor take
  Yeah. Yeah. Klay Travis has learned nothing. No introspection there. he said 2024 was awesome. Tonight mostly sucked except for Florida and Tennessee.
• Howard Dean — Person · Referenced political figure (humorous anecdote) · 1 mention · first at 1:34
  Referenced in an early pre-election clip as part of the hosts' banter; used as an inside-joke cultural reference
  Not only are we going to New Hampshire, Tom Harkin, we're going to South Carolina and Texas and Michigan, AND THEN WE'RE GOING TO WASHINGTON DC TO TAKE BACK THE WHITE HOUSE. [screaming].
• Pete Hegseth — Person · Referenced administration figure (target for hypothetical replacement) · 1 mention · first at 10:54
  Person mentioned in context of defense/policy discussion
  Could try to like pivot tactics surge in Iran. Well, what I would do is make a hard play to get Pete Hegsth pushed out of the Pentagon and have someone professional named to…
• Tom Harkin — Person · Referenced political figure (clip reference) · 1 mention · first at 1:17
  Name invoked in a pre-election clip audio the hosts played as a fun deep cut reference
  Not only are we going to New Hampshire, Tom Harkin, we're going to South Carolina and Texas and Michigan, AND THEN WE'RE GOING TO WASHINGTON DC TO TAKE BACK THE WHITE HOUSE. [screaming].

Companies & orgs

• Crooked Media — Company · Producer/brand behind the show and movement · 6 mentions · first at 0:17
  Host organization producing Pod Save America; referenced as part of the hosts' identity, activism network, and the Crooked dozen effort.
  Last night cuz the race wasn't called is the historic first the that Abdul just achieved which is the first Crooked Media podcaster in the Senate.
• Vote Save America — Company · Civic engagement initiative referenced · 2 mentions · first at 24:15
  Mentioned as the get-out-the-vote and volunteer arm tied to Crooked Media that helped raise funds and mobilize volunteers for the election.
  Crooked dozen, I believe. Yes. the 12 House seats held by Republicans that we targeted. Our listeners raised over 3.7 million dollars for candidates and organizations. We got…
• NBC News — Company · Referenced media outlet · 1 mention · first at 0:50
  Cited as the source projecting House seat totals (e.g., projecting Democrats would win 258 seats)
  Waiting on results from Mississippi and Alaska, but Democrats feel pretty good about both. Democrats have officially won 228 seats in the House, but NBC News is projecting that…
• Senate Majority PAC — Company · Referenced political organization · 1 mention · first at 16:58
  Mentioned in context of campaign spending decisions and overall Democratic Senate investment strategy
  Not spending because they didn't like Angie Nixon or this candidate didn't say they were going to support Schumer. I mean I think to the Senate majority pack and Schumer's…
• New York Times — Company · News outlet referenced · 3 mentions · first at 6:59
  Cited for election graphics and commentary (Nate Cohn piece referenced) and for coverage of specific races.
  Speaking of the House, let's talk about the House and how big the wipeout was. Here is a graph from the New York Times from a Nate Con piece titled, There is no moderate…
• YouTube — Company · Platform for episode distribution · 1 mention · first at 0:22
  Hosts asked listeners to like, share, and subscribe on YouTube; the episode/promo clip is on YouTube.
  And bask in the glow of this victorious glory one more time. by the way, please like this video, share this video, subscribe to Podsave America on YouTube. It really helps us…
• Substack — Company · Referenced media platform · 1 mention · first at 8:14
  Mentioned jokingly as a route JD Vance (or others) might use to publish longform political arguments outside mainstream outlets
  Just that's just modern media. Come on, get with it. [snorts] Can and will. Yeah. It's just like a weird It's a weird thing to tweet. look, the Iran piece is I agree.
• Vote Hub — Company · Referenced election data/community · 1 mention · first at 13:56
  Cited as Zachary Denini's affiliation and as a source for analysis on Alaska ballot patterns and RCV implications
  Think that she's in a strong position to win because most of the vote out is her vote. Zachary Denini at Vote Hub said she's in a strong position though the race may be closer…
• CNN — Company · Media outlet referenced · 2 mentions · first at 7:04
  Referenced as a platform where JD Vance has appeared (CNN contributor) and as part of the broader media ecosystem discussed around polling and coverage.
  Passive observer of his own administration. That's not really going to work. I'm not sure how people in the administration felt this morning when he said that about the war. As…
• Facebook — Company · Referenced social platform · 3 mentions · first at 0:00
  Listed in show description/social links as Crooked Media's Facebook presence — part of show promotion/where to follow
• Instagram — Company · Referenced social platform · 3 mentions · first at 0:00
  Listed in show description/social links (context block) as Crooked Media's Instagram handle — part of show promotion/where to follow

Concepts & topics

• Republican Party — Concept · Primary opposing party discussed · 4 mentions · first at 18:24
  Central political actor in the midterm results; hosts discussed Republican losses, internal shifts, and personalities like Mike Johnson and JD Vance.
• MAGA — Concept · Political movement referenced · 2 mentions · first at 6:51
  Used as shorthand for Trump-aligned conservative politics; discussed when characterizing JD Vance and Republican base politics and reactions to the midterms.
  What did you make of JD's take here? first of all, this is we can get to the substance, but JD Vance is someone who is a MAGA convert, a later MAGA convert who came up in elite circles, Yale, Silicon Valley, the New York Times op-ed page,.

Places & events

• Michigan Senate race — Event · Election result discussed · 1 mention · first at 2:03
  Abdul El-Sayed's victory over Mike Rogers was a focal point for discussing historic firsts, campaign attacks, and reactions to bigoted rhetoric during the race.
  About the Ohio State Buckeyes. Although Michigan football sucks this year's he also, we should say, called his shot and he is wins by he won by seven points.
• Florida — Place · Key battleground state discussed · 7 mentions · first at 15:22
  Hosts discussed Florida in the context of resource allocation, expensive media markets, election investment decisions, and specific races (Angie Nixon).
• Israel — Place · Foreign policy topic and voter concern · 3 mentions · first at 5:53
  Mentioned as one of the top four issues JD Vance cited (change our relationship to Israel) and debated by hosts as to whether it was truly a major driver of voter behavior.
  [clears throat] lashing out about it, not like a 100% their choice. The second is the Israel part. I'm a bit surprised that relationship to Israel was a top four issue. it does…
• Michigan — Place · State where a key Senate race occurred · 6 mentions · first at 1:19
  Site of El-Sayed's victory and broader discussion of election dynamics and recounts; referenced regarding football rivalry and electoral math.
• Mississippi — Place · Senate race pending · 5 mentions · first at 0:43
  One of the undecided Senate seats at time of recording; hosts discussed reasons to feel optimistic about the Democratic chance based on remaining ballots and county demographics.
• Alaska — Place · Senate race pending with ranked-choice voting · 4 mentions · first at 0:43
  Discussed as a close race (Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan) where rank-choice voting could delay final results until mid-November.
  54 seats. U Mississippi is a dead heat right now. we probably won't know for a few days. And then in Alaska, Dan Sullivan, Mary Pollah and Dan Sullivan, actually just the two…
• Texas — Place · Battleground state discussed · 1 mention · first at 17:17
  Mentioned in analyses of unexpected Democratic strength (e.g., big margin wins) and expensive media markets; used as example of states Democrats outperformed expectations in.
  The votes coming in yesterday before the polls closed. Let's watch. Benny, if Florida and Texas are any indicators, then you are going to get a Republican Senate and you may…
• CrookedCon — Event · Live event / conference referenced · 1 mention · first at 0:17
  Hosts mentioned traveling to Crooked Con for a live show and promoted tickets/lineup as part of Crooked Media activities tied to the podcast.
  We're about to we're about to fly to DC for live show in Crooked Con. we'll be back in your feeds on Friday morning.
• Washington DC — Place · Destination for hosts' live show · 2 mentions · first at 0:15
  Hosts referenced flying to Washington DC for a live Crooked Con show; DC is also central to federal politics discussed.
  We're about to we're about to fly to DC for live show in Crooked Con. we'll be back in your feeds on Friday morning.
• Iowa — Place · Referenced early indicator/state · 2 mentions · first at 1:45
  Mentioned in passing as part of election call references and pre-election punditry (Anne Seltzer calling Iowa).
  Wow. We're so He was not wrong. He was early.
• Ohio — Place · Cultural reference (rivalry) · 2 mentions · first at 2:35
  Referenced in the Michigan/Ohio football rivalry joked about during El-Sayed's victory speech; used culturally rather than as an electoral focus in this episode.
  Right? I did not find the JD thing petty at all because like it he did the joke at the end and those Michigan Ohio people are crazy about, the rivalry. So that's fine. he says…
• Los Angeles — Place · Setting · 1 mention · first at 0:00
  Hosts note the recording time and their location (Wednesday morning in Los Angeles) to set scene/tone
  It is Wednesday morning here in Los Angeles. We are blurry eyed, a touch hung over, but libbing out harder than we have lived out in decades. We literally had to beg Dan to turn off the Hamilton soundtrack before we started.

Media & podcasts

• Pod Save America — Media · Podcast (this episode) · 2 mentions · first at 0:30
  The show hosting this conversation; the hosts are analyzing election results, candidates, and implications for policy and 2028 politics.
• Fox & Friends — Media · Referenced TV program · 2 mentions · first at 6:42
  Mentioned as the outlet where Trump reportedly made an offhand comment about U.S. military aid to Israel (used to question timing/politics)
  Election day to announce that the US would no longer provide military aid to Israel and like did it in a throwaway interview on Fox and Friends, but like what did you make of…
• Hamilton — Media · Referenced musical · 1 mention · first at 0:07
  Mentioned humorously as the soundtrack the hosts had to turn off before recording, used to convey mood
  Angeles. We are blurry eyed, a touch hung over, but libbing out harder than we have lived out in decades. We literally had to beg Dan to turn off the Hamilton soundtrack before we started recording. Not going to miss your shot, Dan.

Sponsors

• PDS Debt — Sponsor · Episode sponsor · 2 mentions · first at 12:02
  Paid sponsor for the episode; hosts read an ad describing PDS Debt's services, call to action URL, and claims about client savings.
  Yeah, you're going to probably have to take a bad peace deal. Pods of America breaking news is brought to you by PDS Debt. Are you tired of making monthly payments without seeing your balance go down? PDS debt can help you break free.
• Friends of the Pod — Product · Subscription product promoted · 1 mention · first at 24:52
  Membership/subscription offering from Crooked Media promoted to listeners as a way to support the network and receive ad-free episodes and bonuses.
  Everything we're going to try to do to expand on this victory going into the presidential, please consider becoming a friend of the pod subscriber. You get tons of great…

Full transcript with timestamps

0:00 It is Wednesday morning here in Los Angeles. We are blurry eyed, a touch hung over, but libbing out harder than we have lived out in decades. We literally had to beg Dan to turn off the Hamilton soundtrack before we started recording.

0:13 Not going to miss your shot, Dan. We're about to we're about to fly to DC for live show in Crooked Con. Uh we'll be back in your feeds on Friday morning. But first, we wanted to hop on YouTube and bask in the glow of this victorious glory one more time. Uh, by the way, please like this video, share this video, subscribe to Podsave America on YouTube. It really helps us get good information to people about elections, about politics, and everything else. Also, it's free. Uh, so quick update. As of this recording, Democrats now have 54 seats in the Senate. We are still waiting on results from Mississippi and Alaska, but Democrats feel pretty good about both. Uh, Democrats have officially won 228 seats in the House, but NBC News is projecting that Democrats will win 258 seats. Guys, that is crazy. Uh, our producers have prepared some things for us to react to and watch. Some we've seen, some are

1:03 going to surprise us as much as they surprise you. But guys, before that, I came across some pre-election punditry that was so precient that I had to play it for you first. Let's watch.

1:15 Not only are we going to New Hampshire, Tom Harkin, we're going to South Carolina and Texas and Michigan, AND THEN WE'RE GOING TO WASHINGTON DC TO TAKE BACK THE WHITE HOUSE. [screaming] YEAH. A. [snorts]

1:29 OH, what a wonder deep cut. I wonder how many people watching this uh know that reference to Howard Dus.

1:37 Yeah, that is an inside joke from 22 years ago. Wow. We're so He was not wrong. He was early.

1:47 He was early. He was early. Just like Anne Seltzer with that Iowa poll. Oh, good. Good point.

1:54 Yeah, good point. and was on it. She called Iowa. Uh, all right. Let's start with a race that had not wrapped when we recorded last night. Abdul El Say has defeated Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate race. Here is a fun moment from his victory speech. Let's watch. JD Habimi, there is this delicious irony in the fact that you're constitutionally obligated to swear me in in January.

2:33 So, you know what that means? Wolverine one, Buckeye zero. Donald, look, I I know you you struggled with my name.

2:50 So after JD swears me and in January, you could just go on and call me Senator.

2:56 What do we think, guys? Cocky, fun, a little of both. Look, we did some score settling and pettiness at the end of the pod last night. So, why not a duel? Because as you know, one thing we didn't get to say last night cuz the race wasn't called is the historic first the that Abdul uh just achieved which is the first Crooked Media podcaster in the Senate.

3:16 God damn right. But not but not the last, I'll tell you that. Oh yeah. Also also first Muslim senator. Yeah, that's that's very cool as well. But I I was thinking more first first crooked podcaster. Then we're going to acquire Ted Cruz's podcast and shut it down so another good point. There's nothing more crooked podcaster than just a little bit of pettiness in a moment of victory,

3:36 right? I did not find the JD thing petty at all because like it he did the joke at the end and those Michigan Ohio people are crazy about, you know, the the rivalry. So that's fine. Um he says something about Mike Rogers that was pretty he was like I hope this I hope this state never sees the likes of someone like you again. You chose hate. Now I will say in Abdul's defense like when you have been when you were on the receiving end of what he received over the last several months like I mean we talk about how Obama got a lot of hate and other candidates like I mean they just called him a terrorist you know like the his his opponent the president of the United States the entire right-wing just called him a jihadist a terrorist like I'd be pretty pissed too

4:15 typically I would not recommend that sort of speech but I have grace for it I I felt the same way when at Zoron's victory speech when he said well he'll never you can't name again.

4:23 And you know what, Zoran after that like was never petty again. No. So [clears throat] it was like and I remember complaining about that too at the time, but I was like, you know, sometimes you just got to get it out on election night.

4:33 Yeah. We we all saw up close how hard it would be at times to turn the other cheek in when we were working for Barack Obama. And this was in like another era of politics. Like if someone is running that nakedly racist and bigoted a campaign and let's just be honest like Mike Rogers, Donald Trump calling him a terrorist, calling him a jihadist, they were putting Abdul's life at risk, you know, I mean they were like imagine the signal it sends to like little Muslim kids in this country

4:59 to your daughters to watch have to watch that and hear it. So I I don't begrudge Abdul uh a moment of levity and some talking there. And yes, there's no better way to score points in Michigan than by talking about the Ohio State Buckeyes. Although Michigan football sucks this year's uh

5:16 he also he also, we should say, called his shot and he is wins by he won by seven points.

5:22 Crazy. Which is exactly what he said. So um guys, speaking of JD Vance, so JD tweeted out like an op-ed length take on the election results. I want to read you a little bit because this part caught my eye. So he said he was talking to a pollster who said quote in his polling he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers accounting for nearly all of their responses were one end the war.

5:51 Two, focus on cost of living inflation. Three, put America first. Four, change our relationship to Israel. Uh JD later writes, "The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next six years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay, agree or disagree, that's at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. Any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. Um, so guys, like just two reactions to this.

6:20 Like first on the Iran part, he he talks about the Iran war like it's a thing that happened to them and he's like [clears throat] lashing out about it, not like a 100% their choice. The second is the Israel part. I mean, I'm a bit surprised that relationship to Israel was a top four issue. Um, it does make me wonder why Trump waited until election day to announce that the US would no longer provide military aid to Israel and like did it in a throwaway interview on Fox and Friends, but like what did you make of JD's take here? Um, first of all, this is we we can get to the substance, but um, JD Vance is someone who uh is a MAGA convert, a later MAGA convert who came up in elite circles, Yale, Silicon Valley, the New York Times op-ed page,

7:04 CNN contributor. CNN contributor. He clearly thinks that he is going to like oped his way to the presidency by making these like pseudo intellectual arguments and trying to like reason with uh other elites about why he was actually right. And the Trump administration, I've never heard of the Trump administration. I was always against the war. The Israel thing to me is clearly base politics. It's 2028 primary politics and he knows that like I I don't think it was a top four issue.

7:32 The Tucker crowd. Yeah. Right. And I I know, look, I agree with him on changing relationship with Israel for sure. It was not a top four issue. And um he's just doing that because he he's worried about the Tucker uh the Tucker Carlson part of the uh the Republican base.

7:46 It's absurd. As you said, he's being a passive observer of his own administration. That's not really going to work. I'm not sure how people in the administration felt this morning when he said that about the war. As you pointed out, Tommy, this was not a case where there was an imminent threat and we had to make a decision about how to respond to it. This is not a case where we were attacked and had to decide if we were going to go to war or not. Trump just decided to go to war because and this is this is what has happened. I completely agree. He's doing politics in a way that I don't think makes a lot of sense. And I think just point out you can't oped away the president, but you can substack your way there.

8:16 Just that's just modern media. Come on, get with it. [snorts] Can and will. Yeah. It's just like a weird It's a weird thing to tweet. I mean, look, the Iran piece is I agree it's totally accurate. I guess on some level I'm glad he said it. But also I think Donald Trump is about to ramp the war back up. And it's just an interesting

8:33 statement to make like right before that happens because you know the second it happens JD Vance you know when he does his next press conference would be like you liberal media elites are always trying to pit us against each other me and Donald or it's like okay dude like it's your policy. What are you yelling at us for?

8:50 He doesn't have a theory of the case of how he can win the nomination and the presidency. He has not figured how to square the circle from what he believes are the best politics and the reality of the situation he's in as the vice president to the person doing the bad politics that created this context. And so like this isn't if you're really running for president, you have been thinking about what you're going to do the day after the midterms for months.

9:11 Can I Yeah, I was can I ask you two because you're the perfect two people to answer this question. Like just putting our hacks hats on, right? Just staffers. You're JD Vance. You're working for JD Vance. He's in the administration. the president decides to go to war with Iran, you're immediately against the idea. Like what is what would have been the best political play for your 2028 politics other than what JD Vance has done?

9:36 I think that you do what Marco Rubio has done, which is be the administration and and just never say the word Iran.

9:42 I mean, Marco Rubio is doing it. He is he is in the administration. He is not associated with it. He gladly handed off the task of negotiating a potential peace deal with Iranians uh to JD Vance, someone who has zero foreign policy experience, like literally none, and put him in charge of it. And just he's just like the Venezuela, maybe take over Cuba guy, and that puts him in a better position. I think this like JD Vance is just he cannot figure out how to

10:07 like commit to a strategy. One strategy is you're just with Trump and that's going to what that's going to get me the nomination. I'll figure out the rest later. The other one is you try to fully break, which is probably impossible in his position. So he's like cheerleading the war one day, failing to negotiate a peace agreement the next day, and then just like sending signals out that he's kind of sort of not against the war. You're like betw twixed in between in a way that I think is wholly ineffective.

10:28 Yeah, he's in a rock and a hard place here. I mean, he can't buck Trump in any way, shape, or form. Uh or else he'll just get thrown out of the White House and never allowed back in. I I guess one one pivot you could try to make is sort of similar to the Bush, you know, 200567 pivot, which is like, oh, it was not it was not the war itself that was the problem. This was the Iraq war. It was how it's been conducted so far. And you could try to like pivot tactics

10:52 surge surge in Iran. Well, what I would do is make a hard play to get Pete Hegsth pushed out of the Pentagon and have someone professional named to actually manage the war because there could be a version of this conflict that is dumb and expensive and I don't think is a good idea. Um but that just kind of continues the status quo that they're doing now of like the blockade and preventing Iran from getting oil any oil revenue that kind of bleeds the country out over time. Um that isn't like a you know BB Netanyahu wants me to bomb Pickax Mountain with a nuke you know option. [snorts] The really hard part of the administration and why the Iran the Iraq comparison is imperfect here is Iraq other for the obviously for the people whose families were serving right but like once you did the surge you were able to get a measure of stability in the country at least compared to what was happening before and it took it out

11:42 of the news you can't take Iran out of the news because people are not mad about Iran because they're turning on CNN every day and learning about what is happening in various places it's because they drive go to the gas station every day so as long as gas prices are up. No matter what your strategy is in Iran, it's going to be very, very damaging politically.

11:59 Yeah, you're going to probably have to take a bad peace deal. Pods of America breaking news is brought to you by PDS Debt. Are you tired of making monthly payments without seeing your balance go down? PDS debt can help you break free. Minimum payments aren't designed to get you out of debt. They're designed to keep you stuck. PDS debt is the way out. They can reduce up to half of what you owe on credit cards, personal loans, and medical bills. And it starts with a free 30-cond assessment at pdsd.com/crooked. PDS debt helps thousands of Americans become debt free. The average savings per client for all PDS debts programs is $20,123.

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13:02 All right, let's look at the overall status of the Senate. So, Democrats have 54 seats. U Mississippi is a dead heat right now. Um we probably won't know for a few days. And then in Alaska, Dan Sullivan, Mary Pollah and Dan Sullivan, actually just the two of them, the Pollah and Sullivan are nearly tied with over 70% of the vote counted. Um, and unless one of them pulls away and gets over 50%, it's probably going to take a while because they have rank choice voting and they won't do all that tabulation until mid November. H how are you guys feeling about those two races?

13:34 I mean, I'm hearing from a lot of people in my life, strategists, you know, pundits, whatever, but they feel really good about Mississippi. I feel like Alaska people just kind of don't know yet. Maybe.

13:45 Yeah. The the all the election nerds who we love um I say that with the most loving in the most loving tone. They think that she's in a strong position to win because most of the vote out is her vote. Um uh Zachary Denini at Vote Hub said she's in a strong position though the race may be closer than the Senate contest in South Carolina, Iowa, and Kansas. After applying RCV, she's roughly tied right now. Mail shifted three points toward her in the primary. not callable yet, but a loss would be surprising. And then some people were doing like where the extra mail is coming from. And I think it's like Anchorage and places where she's uh where she's doing well. So they think that she won't need RCV. Um like she might get but like still the ballots won't come in until I think November 11th or 12th.

14:26 It's so slow. Yeah. So that's just even the ballots. Forget about rank choice. I mean one of the great miracles is that we are not sitting here today with the entire balance of the Senate hanging in uh Alaska as we wait weeks for this to be finished. Yeah.

14:39 And then in Mississippi, it seems based on Brandon Presley, who ran for governor uh in almost won recently, was pointing out that the remaining county, the main county where the most votes are left in Mississippi, is a county in which he did incredibly well, has a very large black population. And so that's why the nerds are pretty optimistic. And that in the New York Time was before they shut it down at 4 a.m. for reasons I can't understand, um, was very favorable towards Colin. It looks like he is a very, very, very real shot to win.

15:05 Probably a slight favorite at this point. Did the needle get tired? Yeah. I don't know. Yeah. Why did they take it down in the I like woke up this morning. I'm like, where's the needle?

15:13 Yeah. I don't know. Come on, Nate. Uh, one thing I want to just talk about with you guys, there are you're seeing, look, everyone's mostly just really really happy with the result. You're seeing some kind of limited recriminations about Florida and questions about whether Democrats could or should have invested more in Florida to win the Angie Nixon race. I just like like I feel like in the with the benefit of hindsight, all of us wish there had been more money spent in Florida, but like there wasn't just a pot of money sitting around that we could have drawn from. There wasn't like a bank loan we didn't take out. Like you would have to have taken from one race to give it to another. And I I don't like even the most optimistic strategist we were all talking to didn't expect the blue tsunami results. So, I mean, these are just like these are not easy decisions, you know? It's like Chuck Schumer would

16:03 have loved nothing more than to win Florida. Like, the idea that this was some purposeful thing or like some massive failing by the party, I I feels pretty unfair to me. But what how what do you say?

16:13 No, I agree 100%. When you're making these decisions, both whether you're running for president or trying to win the Senate, is you look at what you call the tipping point state. What's the state that is going to put you over the top? And then you invest in the states at that one and down below the most because look, Chuck Schumer, you want as big a majority as as you can possibly get. But what you have to do is get the majority. If you spend a bunch of money when you're at a massive resource disadvantage on a bunch of races that will never be there was never a world where Florida, we were going to win, you know, we're going to flip North Carolina and Maine, we were going to win Ohio, and then the next state we were going to win is Florida. Like that just wasn't going to happen.

16:47 And you make the most important point, which is there was no more money. Like there was not some pot of money that was that was sitting there that they were not spending because they didn't like Angie Nixon or this candidate didn't say they were going to support Schumer. I mean I think to the Senate majority pack and Schumer's credit, they spent a lot of money on candidates who said they were not going to vote for Chuck Schumer.

17:05 Yeah. Particularly in Michigan. Now if you had known that we were going to win Texas by 12,

17:10 you obviously wouldn't have spent as much money there. But no one knew that. That was impossible to know

17:14 because in the it's the size of Florida here, too, because remember so expensive. Schumer and them didn't go in on Texas until later. Yeah. Like uh relatively speaking. And so if Angie Nixon was running in South Carolina or Mississippi, you could maybe make an argument that towards the end you dump a bunch of money in there because they're smaller states, you know, but the decision to go into Florida uh towards the end when no one expected that Angie Nixon was going to be the nominee in the first place just is not something that would have materialized.

17:41 Yeah. It's like they could they put $5 million into Kansas late this month and $5 million in Kansas is a huge deal. $5 million in Florida is nothing. It is just it is

17:52 like five most expensive states to run in, right? I think it's probably two would be my guess. Number two,

17:58 if you think three, I guess. Cal, we could probably go California isn't that far. Texas, Florida, and New York are all in that mix.

18:04 Yeah. Yeah. North Carolina is shockingly expensive. Um, all right. So, the the results may have come as a shock for some uh in the MAGA verse. Here's a clip we saw from mega influencer Benny Johnson looking at the votes coming in yesterday before the polls closed. Let's watch. Benny,

18:20 if Florida and Texas are any indicators, then you are going to get a Republican Senate and you may even keep the Republican House. We'll see. But the blue tsunami that has been promised is not materializing. It is going to be a crisis day for Democrats when they realize that they've been lied to yet again. That the polls are wrong yet again and that they are completely and totally despised by the American people yet again.

18:55 Must be tough for an electorate to realize they've been lied to, huh, guys? Yes. I I imagine Benny's probably offline today doing introspection trying to figure out what he got wrong so we can provide better, more reliable trust and information to his audience going forward. Is that what's happening?

19:09 Yeah, I think that's probably right. You guys have any other fun um uh bad takes or petty I saw Scott Pressler. I What does he do for a living? Is he just like a

19:20 I think isn't he the Talking Points USA person? Yeah, I think he's like dodging indictments. No, the the the guy with the weird long hair.

19:27 Yeah. Yeah, scary. Yeah, he's a look, he's a weirdo, like Christian nationalist.

19:32 Uh yesterday he tweeted, "Holy cow, I'm screaming. Republicans just flipped the governorship of Guam from blue to red. Keep going. Don't stop for a gosh darn second." I wonder if he's still screaming, guys.

19:44 Scott, we've all been there on a tough election night. You got to find your silver lining in a very dark cloud.

19:49 Yeah. Yeah. Uh Klay Travis has learned nothing. No introspection there. Uh he said 2024 was awesome. Tonight mostly sucked except for Florida and Tennessee. Uh well we won a bunch of house the Florida gerrymander uh failed. So we won a bunch of house races there. The Republicans lost a rural congressional district in in Tennessee. Um so Clay doesn't know what the he's talking about.

20:14 Yeah, he's uh not good at predicting or speaking of the House, let's talk about the House uh and how big the wipeout was. Here is a graph from the New York Times from a Nate Con piece titled, "There is no moderate precedent for this Democratic tsunami." The ballot may end up being D plus13. Uh, and Mike Johnson just announced he will not run for House Minority Leader. Uh, I can barely see that graphic, guys, cuz I'm on my home computer and it's very either.

20:42 If it was in front of me, I can see it today. Yeah, I see a lot of blue going to the right. So, that's

20:47 the big Oh, it's it's the by the years it is the biggest since 74, right? Which was 15.6, six, I think.

20:52 Yeah. Uh, Speaker Johnson resigning. Does anyone care? No. Uh, but Jim, didn't Jim Jordan announce he's running? So,

21:00 in Scaliz. Yeah. So, no. Mike Johnson will go down as a footnote in history. Yeah. It was a it was a it was a brief brief

21:06 accidental speaker. Um, didn't do anything with his speakerhip. Basically, just tried to avoid being ousted a speaker. That was basically the the whole of his speakership. And then he passed a bunch of I guess he shephered through a bunch of cuts to Medicaid and a giant tax cut. And then the greatest wipeout in 50 some years.

21:23 Yeah. So that's that's Mike Johnson. Mega Mike Johnson. Magga Mike. Just a little elf kind of

21:30 supplicant. Uh interesting. I guess he's going to he's going to start the lawn business.

21:34 Yeah, he's lawn care. He's going back to Louisiana to do some lawn care. That's what he said. That's what he said a couple months before. Yeah,

21:39 maybe he can, you know, get the Covenant Eyes app. You know, [snorts] there I always forget the name of it. Thank you.

21:44 Covenant eyes. Yeah. Um interesting note. But I saw heavily Hispanic counties swung more to Dems than any other in the Texas districts that are more than 90% Hispanic switched by a staggering 24 points. Uh Democratic Latino candidates claimed victories across the entire map even. But of the battleground races, the GOP so far has won lone survivor. Maria Salazar in Miami by just over a thousand votes. Uh I copied and pasted that from somewhere. I no longer know where. Sorry for plagiarizing whomever. I just thought it was an interesting note.

22:14 Yeah. Yeah, I just I feel like we've been so focused, rightly so, on on the Senate and the House. Like Nate Silver tweeted this map last night. Um, Democrats are going to now hold governorships in states totaling 392 electoral votes. Like the importance of what happened at the state level, I think, is has not been getting as much attention and hopefully it will uh in the coming weeks. But like this means that in 2028, like all the fears we have about certification and Trump trying to steal the presidency or do what he did in 2020, like we're going to be in a great position with governors in just about every single We have governors in every single swing state, Democratic governors.

22:55 And Democrats picked up state legislators all across the country. Yeah, I think there's going to be by some estimate I saw which once again um it was someone from Vote I believe um point out that it could be a loss of 8900 Republican legislators lost their seats.

23:09 So yeah, uh Daniel Nanny and Taniel on I I literally just pulled up Daniel too.

23:15 So new Democratic trifectas, governorship and the state legislature, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, congrats to Ben Wickler and all our friends in Wisconsin. Minnesota um and Michigan. All of them trifectas and oh is Nevada going to happen too?

23:32 Yeah, that's as of an hour ago he tweeted that and and we are 268 votes away in North Carolina.

23:39 Dem flip we flipped governorships in Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Texas, breaking the Republican trifectas in those states and the Republican trifecta in New Hampshire was also broken. Um, and just amazing amazing stuff. Like that's going to mean a lot on the state level for like efforts to like, you know, unrig uh the the map and unrig like the the, you know, how the map is tilted against Democrats and then just all the wonderful stuff they're going to be able to do for people on a state level.

24:07 Yeah. Yeah. It's uh an extraordinary night. All right, let's just take a minute to acknowledge that this does not happen on its own. We want to shout out to all of our listeners and everyone who got involved in this election through Vote Save America. We flipped the whole crooked dozen, I believe. Yes. Uh the 12 House seats held by Republicans that we targeted. Our listeners raised over 3.7 million dollars for candidates and organizations. We got 20,000 people to volunteer to help Democrats uh in this election. So, thank you everyone who got involved, got off the couch, did something. Uh if you want to figure out what you can do in 2028, go to votesaveamea.com.

24:44 Also though, if you just want to help us build Crooked Media here, um, and everything we're going to try to do to expand on this victory going into the presidential, please consider becoming a friend of the pod subscriber. You get tons of great content. You get ad free episodes. You get bonus uh bonus episodes. You get great newsletters, discounted crooked tickets. So, crooked.comfriends to learn more. Guys, any final thoughts before we head to the airport?

25:11 What a night. What a night. It's never thought I'd see this. All right, talk to you guys soon.

25:16 We'll see you then. Bye, everyone.

Questions about this episode

Who speaks in "Dems could flip even MORE seats after historic wave midterm night (Pod Save Bonus)"?

Dan (Guest), Jon (Host).

What is "Dems could flip even MORE seats after historic wave midterm night (Pod Save Bonus)" about?

Democrats are riding a historic midterm wave, with early results showing control of a stronger Senate and House majority than many expected, while pundits and past predictions are reassessed as results roll in. The discussion includes live reactions, polling references, and reflections on notable forecasts.

What is mentioned in this Pod Save America episode?

56 people, works and ideas are mentioned, including J.D. Vance, Pod Save America, Republican Party, Donald Trump, Abdul El-Sayed, Michigan Senate race. Each one on this page links to its own page with every episode that mentions it.

How long is "Dems could flip even MORE seats after historic wave midterm night (Pod Save Bonus)"?

The episode runs 26 min; the transcript is about 5,309 words in 82 timestamped sections.

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