Transcript

FINAL Midterm Takes: How Bad Could It Get for Trump and Republicans?

From Pod Save America · Episode page · Watch on YouTube

· 1 h 25 min · 17,807 words · 264 timestamped sections

This is the full, timestamped transcript of "FINAL Midterm Takes: How Bad Could It Get for Trump and Republicans?", an episode of Pod Save America published November 3, 2026 (1 h 25 min, about 17,807 words). It mentions 97 people, works and ideas, including Democrats, Donald Trump, Abdul El-Sayed, Pod Save America, Times/Siena polls.

What this episode is about

The discussion analyzes the final midterm landscape, highlighting polls showing Democrats' strong chances to retake the Senate and possibly the House, and examines the messaging Trump is using to blunt that momentum. It also note events and promotions surrounding the election, including live coverage, guest appearances, and limited-time ticket sales.

Key takeaways

  • Midterm momentum pivots on messaging: Democrats’ Senate odds hinge on turnout-driven tone rather than policy nuance.
  • Trump’s final-day theatrics—algae, sod, and archways—reveal campaigns win or flop on spectacle, not substance.
  • Media framing biases: poll averages clash with on-the-ground sentiment, highlighting polling limitations before polls close.
  • Celebrity-driven politics: live streams, flash sales, and headliners now compete with policy for voter attention.
  • Staff control paradox: even powerful figures appear to lose grip when personal narratives overshadow strategic coherence.

Who speaks in this episode?

What is discussed, and when

  1. – 10:00: Donald Trump, Tucker Carlson, Iran, North Carolina
  2. – 20:00: Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, Democrats, Haley Stevens
  3. – 30:00: Haley Stevens, Michigan, Democrats, Mike Rogers
  4. – 40:00: Haley Stevens, Wildgrain, Abdul El-Sayed, Democrats
  5. – 50:00: Kansas, Alaska, Dan Sullivan, Adam Hamilton
  6. – 1:00:00: Democrats, Donald Trump, Alaska, Texas
  7. – 1:10:00: Walmart, John Husted, Donald Trump, The New York Times Magazine
  8. – 1:20:00: Democrats, Citizens United, Michigan, North Carolina
  9. – 1:24:33: Democrats, Donald Trump, Pod Save America, North Carolina

Notable quotes from "FINAL Midterm Takes: How Bad Could It Get for Trump and Republicans?"

  • Finally here. And the final round of Time Sienna polls show what the averages have been saying all fall. Democrats have a great chance of retaking the Senate and an even better…
    about Democrats · at
  • Show before polls close in the final midterm election of the Trump era in American politics. No president since Harry Truman has been this unpopular heading into election day.…
    about Donald Trump · at
  • Would not endorse Rogers. and so that was a turn of events that Stevens had just a bit of trouble explaining in an incredibly [snorts] awkward interview with Anderson Cooper on…
    about Michigan · at
  • Yeah, I think she's doing the most damage to herself right now. I mean I think like for a duel like obviously this is not how you want to close out the campaign. this is not the message.
    about John Lovett · at
  • I think it was I think it was a roying issue online in certain communities. I think in crass political terms Abdul's job is to talk about the things he wants to talk about in a…
    about Abdul El-Sayed · at
  • Seems to be running way ahead of Turk in the governor's race. He's up more than seven in Nate's average. Tommy, what do you think? Do you think there's going to be a bunch of…
    about Tommy Vietor · at
  • Best part of the show is when it gets a little loopy.
    about Pod Save America · at
  • And then Cook had an interesting in Amy Walter's final analysis piece.
    about Times/Siena polls · at

Who and what is mentioned in this episode?

People

  • Donald Trump — Person · President (referenced subject of discussion) · 14 mentions · first at
    Primary antagonist in hosts' analysis—his approval, actions (war, tariffs, rallies), messaging (reflecting pool speech) and effect on midterms are core to the episode.
  • Abdul El-Sayed — Person · Senate candidate (referenced) · 8 mentions · first at
    Central Democratic Senate candidate in Michigan discussed throughout the episode; hosts analyze polls, controversies (Haley Stevens endorsement) and his campaign messaging.
  • John Favreau — Person · Co-host · 2 mentions · first at
    One of Pod Save America's main hosts; leads discussion and framing of episode topics.
    All right. The day has arrived. Our last show before polls close in the final midterm election of the Trump era in American politics. No president since Harry Truman has been this unpopular.
  • Tommy Vietor — Person · Co-host · 3 mentions · first at
    One of the show's regular hosts; participates in analysis and discussion throughout the episode.
  • John Lovett — Person · Co-host · 2 mentions · first at
    One of the show's primary hosts, contributes to commentary and humor throughout the episode.
  • Haley Stevens — Person · Congresswoman (referenced, controversial endorser) · 22 mentions · first at
    Her surprise endorsement of Mike Rogers in Michigan and subsequent media appearances are discussed as a destabilizing moment in that race.
    To do with Haley Stevens I just as I like just want to separate out Haley Stevens does not get to be the arbiter of what counts as anti-semitism she does not get to be the…
  • Mike Rogers — Person · Republican Senate candidate (referenced) · 9 mentions · first at
    Michigan Republican Senate candidate opposed to Abdul El-Sayed; his campaign and the impact of Haley Stevens' endorsement are discussed.
    Average in some of these polls. That pretty much lines up with where Michigan would be in the poll. Abdul is winning 96% of Kla Harris voters and only 2% of Kla Harris voters…
  • Tucker Carlson — Person · Referenced media figure/sourced commentator · 8 mentions · first at
    Referenced as a media personality who published sourcing about possible strikes on Iran and whose footage/quotes appeared in campaign ads; discussed as influential in shaping narratives around Trump and candidates.
    Who knows? Like his usual there was also some wild, by wild, I mean terrifying reporting from Tucker Carlson who cited anonymous sources close to Trump saying that the president may be within days of launching a nuclear strike.
  • Adam Hamilton — Person · Referenced (candidate/figure) — transcript misrecognition noted as Adam Hamilton · 6 mentions · first at
    High - central to political discussion in transcript
    James Taro up seven in Texas. Troy Jackson up six in Maine. Shared Brown up five in Ohio. Adam Hamilton up five in Kansas. Mary Pelola up two in Alaska.
  • Nate Silver — Person · Polling analyst referenced · 5 mentions · first at
    Hosts cite Nate Silver's aggregate model/average as a reference point for interpreting state polling.
    Fundamentals, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas are still R plus I think Nate has it.3 to two just on to plus two on the simple fundamentals. So a huge like the generic ballot polling was correct nationally.
  • Sherrod Brown — Person · Incumbent Democratic Senator (referenced) · 1 mention · first at
    Ohio incumbent being defended as a strong contender; polling and matchup against J.D. Vance discussed.
    Houston is 3648. so it's not like anyone likes John Houston and people do like shared Brown but again the you know Donald Trump won this by double digits.
  • Dan Sullivan — Person · Incumbent Republican Senator (referenced) · 6 mentions · first at
    Alaska incumbent whose campaign is discussed with respect to ballot-stacking controversy and legal challenges.
    Sullivan ballot stacking scandal. The two Dan Sullivans, the Dan Sullivan. on Sunday, a federal judge dismissed the Department of Justice's Trumpord ordered lawsuit trying to…
  • Josh Turek — Person · Democratic Senate candidate (referenced) · 5 mentions · first at
    Iowa Democratic Senate candidate; hosts discuss tight polling with GOP opponent and potential coattail effects from the gubernatorial race.
    As we've discussed, Democrat Rob Sand seems to be running way ahead of Turk in the governor's race. He's up more than seven in Nate's average. Tommy, what do you think? Do you think there's going to.
  • Nate Cohn — Person · Referenced poll analyst · 5 mentions · first at
    Referenced for commentary about why the Times/Siena batch was published and for perspective on polling adjustments and reliability.
    Nate Silver's average has Abdul up just shy of five points. all very encouraging signs that are just getting slightly overshadowed by Haley Stevens shocking decision to endorse.
  • Mary Peltola — Person · Democratic candidate (referenced) · 4 mentions · first at
    Alaska Democratic candidate (incumbent congresswoman turned Senate candidate) mentioned as competitive vs Dan Sullivan.
    Over in Alaska, the race is closer with Mary Pelola just two points up on Dan Sullivan according to the Times. it's not far off from where Nate's model has the race where Pelola is up by around two and a half points. it is.
  • Roger Marshall — Person · Incumbent Republican Senator (referenced) · 4 mentions · first at
    Kansas incumbent attacked over past medical debt collection practices; hosts discuss his ad and campaign troubles.
    Went around his staff to record this ad with his own film crew which he then posted on Twitter. Amazing. Let's watch.
  • Susan Collins — Person · Incumbent Republican Senator (referenced) · 3 mentions · first at
    Maine incumbent whose approval has declined; hosts discuss her matchup with Troy Jackson and shifting polls in Maine.
    Yep. Right. Yep. That brings us to our last state, Maine. Time Sienna has Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins by six, 51 to 45. Woohoo.
  • J. D. Vance — Person · Republican Senator (referenced) · 2 mentions · first at
    Mentioned as a Trump-era pick whose nomination to the Senate in Ohio created a contested seat and helped put Ohio on the map; hosts debate his selection's consequences.
    Threat and the people that enable him deserve to be held accountable. And that will continue to be the case when someone like JD Vance tries to run for president. basically denying the version of Trump we all recognize is real. So yeah.
  • Barack Obama — Person · Referenced former president · 2 mentions · first at
    Referenced when comparing Trump's unpopularity and to contrast past presidents' midterm positioning; used as historical benchmark.
    Show before polls close in the final midterm election of the Trump era in American politics. No president since Harry Truman has been this unpopular heading into election day.…
  • Dan Pfeiffer — Person · Host / recurring contributor · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as planned to join the hosts for a bonus episode reaction after election results; part of the Pod Save America team context.
    It doesn't really matter because there's rank choice voting, what was the value of doing it? We Dan and I talked about this on Friday and it like there wasn't a ton of value in…
  • Jocelyn Benson — Person · Referenced election official/contextual comparator · 4 mentions · first at
    Benson's margin referenced as a benchmark for Abdul El-Sayed's polling in Michigan; used to contextualize polling performance.
    That we've seen. It is he matches Jocelyn Benson's margin pretty much in this poll. He matches he and Benson match the generic ballot in Michigan in this poll. So it's about…
  • Trey Jackson — Person · Democratic Senate candidate (referenced) · 3 mentions · first at
    Maine Democratic candidate trailing/leading Susan Collins depending on poll; hosts note improving position for Jackson.
    Of Troy Jackson in this poll so that is probably a big reason why he's leading and the house generic ballot now and Hannah Pingry is running for governor they're like more 5542…
  • Ashley Hinson — Person · Republican candidate (referenced) · 2 mentions · first at
    Iowa Republican Senate candidate discussed as competitive and personally mentioned in Trump's rally remarks (and hosts discuss polling).
    Points behind Abbott. and so, the governor's race is obviously much tighter, but we will see. In Iowa, the race continues to look pretty tight as well. Time Sienna has Josh Turk up just one point on Ashley Henson, 4847.
  • Rob Sand — Person · Iowa gubernatorial candidate (referenced) · 2 mentions · first at
    Iowa Democratic candidate for governor discussed as running ahead and potentially providing coattails to Senate candidate Josh Turek.
    As we've discussed, Democrat Rob Sand seems to be running way ahead of Turk in the governor's race. He's up more than seven in Nate's average. Tommy, what do you think? Do you think there's going to.
  • Elon Musk — Person · Referenced major spender/influencer · 1 mention · first at
    Named as an example of wealthy individuals/actors who can spend large sums in elections, used to discuss money's influence in politics.
    Are about the team you're on more than anything else. And then the money because if Elon Musk can spend half a B in half a billion dollars in these races and the crypto…
  • James Talarico — Person · Democratic candidate (referenced) · 4 mentions · first at
    Mentioned as a Democratic figure in Texas context (transcript variants of name appear); hosts note Democratic strength in Texas races.
    That's true. I also just think they tried really hard to make Tyler Rico into a boogeyman.
  • John Fetterman — Person · Referenced senator/political example · 3 mentions · first at
    Mentioned in discussion about expectations and party-switching/speculation about behavior of other senators post-election (referred to as 'Federman' in the transcript).
    Hope they're right. but I also do worry we just went through this Haley Stevens news cycle. I take Federman's word that he doesn't want to switch parties. I also don't wouldn't…
  • John Husted — Person · Republican candidate referenced (typoed as 'Houston') · 3 mentions · first at
    Medium - candidate in discussion
    Room for the poll to be wrong of him still to it's a dumb Emerson poll that came out right before he recorded that has Houston up three.
  • Amy Walter — Person · Referenced analyst/commentator · 2 mentions · first at
    Cited for analysis and framing (Cook Political Report) and referenced in discussion of Sarah Longwell's focus group and election analysis.
    You know what's interesting about the poll? Look, you Nate Cohen to his credit talked about why they put this out even though obviously it is if like if it turns out that it's closer, they're going to be Oh, wow. They.
  • Amy Acton — Person · Republican candidate referenced (typoed in transcript) · 2 mentions · first at
    Medium - referenced in context of polling/ads
    Imagine. Here's my big hope. I am hoping that Vive Ramwami being the worst person in the world and running one of the most shameful ads in history against Amy Actton will collapse the electorate, throw the election to both Actton and shared.
  • Vivek Ramaswamy — Person · Republican presidential figure referenced · 2 mentions · first at
    Mentioned as a 2024 figure whose actions/ads (or references) might affect down-ballot dynamics; hosts criticize his messaging.
    Which is like a funny goofy thing to imagine. Here's my big hope. I am hoping that Vive Ramwami being the worst person in the world and running one of the most shameful ads in history against Amy Actton will.
  • Sharice Davids — Person · Referenced case study · 1 mention · first at
    Used as an example of polling accuracy in Kansas (2022) to contextualize why NYT/Siena polls might be believable there.
    Had a piece where he wrote about how the Times in 2022 had a poll that had Sharice Davids up 14 points in the third congressional district in Kansas. They downplayed it because…
  • Laura Kelly — Person · Referenced elected official · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as an example of a Democratic governor in a red-leaning state (Kansas) to contextualize how Democrats can win there
    Our friend Kathleen Sabir Sibelius has been you know very popular Democratic governor like it's not crazy that there would be a Democrat elected in Kansas or at least not as…
  • Sarah Longwell — Person · Referenced pollster/analyst · 1 mention · first at
    Her final focus group (Alaska voters) referenced for anecdotal insights about Alaska electorate behavior and polling difficulty.
    I would say Sarah Longwell's final focus group was Alaska voters. I was listening to the episode over the weekend and she's talking to Amy Walter.
  • Ted Cruz — Person · Referenced political figure · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned in discussion of Texas politics and Republican context (implicit references to Texas political environment).
    By three and a half points in Nate's model. Like Trump, Paxton's also closing strong. His campaign appeared to cancel the final event of his come and take it tour which was set to take place at the Alamo. He canled the event at the Alamo.
  • Justice Samuel Alito — Person · Referenced justice · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned when discussing potential judicial appointments and ideological balance of the Court (Alito referenced as conservative justice).
    Supreme Court appointments and like dozens of other judges. And if we don't, Alto and Alto probably and maybe Thomas, then we're going to get two more justices that are like Eileen Cannon or worse in their 30s for decades. So that to me is.
  • Judge Aileen Cannon — Person · Referenced judge example · 1 mention · first at
    Used as an example of a lower-court conservative judge whom future appointments might resemble; invoked in conversation about long-term consequences of Senate control.
    None of that the Senate, it really like we get the Senate, we can hold off two Supreme Court, one or two Supreme Court appointments and like dozens of other judges. And if we don't, Alto and Alto probably and maybe Thomas,.
  • Ruth Bader Ginsburg — Person · Referenced justice (symbolic) · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned in passing when discussing Supreme Court and judicial legacy; invoked as a contrast to conservative justices.
    You're making me remember when RBG did that wedding or performed that wedding.
  • Harry Enten — Person · Referenced analyst/commentator · 4 mentions · first at
    Mentioned (as 'Harry Anon') for pointing out poll artifacts and commentary about polling and electorate behavior.
    He's like the best candidate we could have run. Harry Anen pointed out that there are people respondents in polls who think that shared is the incumbent.
  • Rahm Emanuel — Person · Referenced advisor/commenter · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned in an anecdote about how an advisor (Rahm) would have reacted to a reflecting-pool-renovation event pitch — used as a humorous critique of Trump's staff choices.
    About how his staff now has no control over him. I talked to Rahm for like 3 minutes today, like one of those two-minute ROM phone calls, and he was If you came into my office and pitched me on a day before the midterms event about the.

Companies & orgs

  • The New York Times Magazine — Company · Polling source / referenced media outlet · 7 mentions · first at
    Hosts repeatedly reference the NYT/Siena polls and Times/Sienna final batch as the basis for state-by-state analysis.
    Nate Silver's average has Abdul up just shy of five points. all very encouraging signs that are just getting slightly overshadowed by Haley Stevens shocking decision to endorse.
  • Crooked Media — Company · Producer / parent company · 8 mentions · first at
    Producer of Pod Save America; hosts and sponsorship structure tied to Crooked Media's platform.
    Friends to vote. Votesamea.com if you need any help. and we'll see you on the other side. Positive America is a crooked media production. Our show is produced by Austin…
  • FiveThirtyEight — Company · Polling/analytics reference · 3 mentions · first at
    Referenced (as 'Silver Bulletin') for its polling/averaging model and national/state projections
    Let's go to Kansas where Time Sienna has Adam Hamilton leading Roger Marshall by five points, 49 to 44. Silver Bulletin's average has him ahead by a bit more than three points.…
  • Cook Political Report — Company · Referenced analysis outlet · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced for its seat counts and commentary on the number of Republican seats in the toss-up column and longer-term implications for Senate control.
    Like Democrats have to flip at least two seats that Donald Trump carried by double digits. Cook has five Republican held Senate seats in the toss-up column that Trump carried…
  • YouTube — Company · Platform referenced for live coverage · 5 mentions · first at
    Hosts promoted a live results stream and referenced posting of clips/unedited conversations to YouTube; used as distribution platform for Crooked content.
    To try to blunt that momentum. What could it be? before we get to all that, quick reminder to join Alex Wagner tonight for a live stream of election results and analysis. The…
  • Writers Guild of America East — Company · Union affiliation · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced to note that the show's staff is unionized under WGA East
    Ferrell, David Tols, Mia Kelman, Ryan Young, and Naomi Single. Our staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.
  • Emerson College — Company · Polling/academic reference · 1 mention · first at
    Educational institution referenced via poll
    Room for the poll to be wrong of him still to it's a dumb Emerson poll that came out right before he recorded that has Houston up three.

Concepts & topics

  • Democrats — Concept · Primary political group discussed · 30 mentions · first at
    Many episode segments analyze Democratic prospects, strategy, and candidates across battleground states.
  • Times/Siena polls — Concept · Core data source · 3 mentions · first at
    A batch of final polls (The New York Times/Siena) drives much of the episode's state-by-state analysis and narrative about the midterms.
  • Citizens United — Concept · Structural/legal context · 6 mentions · first at
    Invoked in conversation about campaign finance, money in politics, and how electoral influence can be purchased post-decision; shapes the discussion of outside spending.
    Are about the team you're on more than anything else. And then the money because if Elon Musk can spend half a B in half a billion dollars in these races and the crypto…
  • Trump Department of Justice — Concept · Referenced institutional actor · 2 mentions · first at
    Medium - referenced in political analysis
    Sullivan ballot stacking scandal. The two Dan Sullivans, the Dan Sullivan. on Sunday, a federal judge dismissed the Department of Justice's Trumpord ordered lawsuit trying to…
  • Crypto Industry — Concept · Political funding source / influence · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as a source of large campaign spending that could influence election outcomes
    Are about the team you're on more than anything else. And then the money because if Elon Musk can spend half a B in half a billion dollars in these races and the crypto…

Places & events

  • Congressional elections — Event · Core event · 2 mentions · first at
    The episode is centered on the U.S. midterm (congressional) elections and their implications
    American politics. No president since Harry Truman has been this unpopular heading into election day. He got us into a war that spiked gas prices to record highs, imposed…
  • Michigan — Place · Battleground state discussed · 15 mentions · first at
    Episode covers Michigan polling for Abdul El-Sayed, Nate Silver averages, and Haley Stevens' endorsement controversy affecting the race.
  • Texas — Place · Battleground state discussed · 4 mentions · first at
    Hosts discuss polling showing Democrats competitive in Texas (James Talarico/Jocelyn Benson mentions), Paxton's weaknesses, and demographic trends.
    It's weird to feel good about Texas. It's mostly because of the demographics, like 40% Latino. it's because Paxton is such a historically terrible candidate. he gave a he gave a pedophile a sweetheart deal. He.
  • Ohio — Place · Battleground state discussed · 2 mentions · first at
    Hosts discuss Sherrod Brown vs. J.D. Vance/Vance-related messaging, early voting records and turnout challenges in Ohio.
    That still means that just based on fundamentals, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas are still R plus I think Nate has it.3 to two just on to plus two on the simple fundamentals. So a huge like the generic ballot polling was correct nationally.
  • Alaska — Place · Battleground state discussed · 12 mentions · first at
    Alaska Senate race (Mary Peltola vs Dan Sullivan) and ballot-stacking controversy are covered; hosts note polling difficulty there.
    Over in Alaska, the race is closer with Mary Pelola just two points up on Dan Sullivan according to the Times. it's not far off from where Nate's model has the race where Pelola is up by.
  • Kansas — Place · Battleground state discussed · 12 mentions · first at
    Hosts analyze the Kansas Senate contest (Roger Marshall vs Adam Kinzinger/Hamilton confusion) and polling showing a possible Democratic pick-up.
    We got a we got Kansas, South Carolina, Mississippi for God's sake. New paradigm. Trump is over.
  • Iran — Place · Foreign policy topic referenced · 4 mentions · first at
    Hosts discuss potential military action, tensions, and how foreign policy may factor into Trump's messaging and political strategy.
    Ourselves, but I think it's worth talking about what's next for Trump after Tuesday. lots of reporting the last few days that Netanyahu is pressuring Trump to start striking…
  • Iowa — Place · Battleground state discussed · 4 mentions · first at
    Hosts discuss Iowa Senate race (Josh Turek vs. incumbent), Trump rallies, and whether agricultural/tariff issues will move voters.
    And Nate and his average has it at 7. So, by any measure, it's effectively a tie. Trump was in Debuke on Sunday where he tried to break the race open by rallying his supporters around this message.
  • Gulf — Place · Geopolitical region · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced in discussion about the Iran conflict, escort missions, and regional pressures influencing U.S. foreign policy decisions
    Yeah. So, the Iranians just floated a deal to reopen the trade of hormuz that included some things like lifting sanctions and billions and frozen asset relief that make it hard for me to.
  • North Carolina — Place · Referenced battleground state · 8 mentions · first at
    Mentioned in the discussion of Senate map and how candidate selection and intra-party decisions influenced races in southern states.
    Results and analysis. The stream starts at 9:00 p.m. Eastern, 600 p.m. Pacific on the Pods Save America YouTube channel. She'll have lots of great guests from the network and…
  • Alamo — Place · Referenced venue/metaphor · 6 mentions · first at
    Discussed as the site Ken Paxton planned an event and used as a cultural/metaphorical touchpoint in commentary about last-stand rhetoric.
    That he somehow that like black Democrats in Michigan should be wary of Abdul because of because Tucker Carlson is in an ad for 5 seconds saying that he wouldn't vote for Mike…
  • Maine — Place · Battleground state discussed · 3 mentions · first at
    Hosts cover the Maine Senate race (Troy Jackson vs Susan Collins) and note improving polling for Democrats in the state.
    Yep. Right. Yep. That brings us to our last state, Maine. Time Sienna has Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins by six, 51 to 45. Woohoo.
  • Georgia — Place · Referenced battleground/state example · 2 mentions · first at
    Referenced when discussing Trump-era decisions and how candidate selection affected Senate contests (Kemp, Collins, state-level decisions).
    And Kemp is kind of a double there, right? Because if Trump wasn't president or Trump didn't hate Kemp, maybe Kemp would have run for Senate and that probably would have given us off the toughest race. But then Kemp had a.
  • California — Place · Referenced population movement context · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as source of migrants who moved to Texas, used to explain some demographic shifts that affect state political dynamics.
    It's also funny to think about mismanagement in California caused a lot of people to move out of this state. And a lot of those people did end up in Texas. Now, I think that's probably a more conservative group than a typical.
  • Appalachia — Place · Geopolitical/regions · 1 mention · first at
    Geographic region reference; needs transcript-anchored evidence
    App every state that touches Appalachia is the so it's like eastern Ohio western pens like you start getting these areas of the country that are different than the Republican…
  • Mississippi — Place · Referenced battleground/state outcome scenario · 5 mentions · first at
    Mentioned as an example of a deep-red state where Democrats competing would be notable; used in hypothetical sweep discussion.
    Political mentors, people she was with at dinner and then culminating in like this is what Anderson Cooper was trying to get out like what changed between midnight like Saturday and Sunday morning. It's inexplicable. Yes.
  • Cincinnati — Place · Referenced city · 1 mention · first at
    Used to illustrate urban/suburban vote patterns and party gains within Ohio
    The Republican voters in the plain states but The other thing is you have like you know Hamilton County where Cincinnati is has become like much more democratic right. So like…
  • Cleveland — Place · Referenced city · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as a key population center in Ohio whose turnout can affect statewide outcomes
    Offset the rest of the state in some of the rural areas then do you get enough to turn out in Cleveland which sometimes lags but like you know Sherid did this eight years ago…
  • Pennsylvania — Place · Referenced location · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as part of broader discussion about regional political trends and electoral map context
    Online and so boy 52 seat Senate really enures against that problem I kind of think it's also it matters which red states we win or potentially lose here for long term right…
  • Nebraska — Place · Referenced state · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as an example where Ben Nelson's vote mattered for national legislation
    Immutable fact of politics. The ACA passes in part because you have people like Ben Nelson in Nebraska, right? It's just not we're not that far off from having Democrats as…
  • Fontana — Place · Referenced state · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced in passing (citation of a Montana senator's comment about seating a winner in Alaska)
    Event on Monday after posting a photo of the final Alaska ballot with the word scam. You got Tim Shehy who's the senator from Montana saying, Of course we should never seat…
  • Arizona — Place · Referenced state · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced in the context of cross-state political tactics (a Green Party candidate living in Arizona recruited to run in Alaska)
    Side. And I think this cycle, the main Republican super PAC spent like 500 grand to get a Green Party candidate who lives in Arizona to run. And there was like there was a lot…
  • Dubuque — Place · Referenced location · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as a place Trump campaigned in Iowa (DeBuke/Dubuque referenced when discussing Trump rally)
    And Nate and his average has it at 7. So, by any measure, it's effectively a tie. Trump was in Debuke on Sunday where he tried to break the race open by rallying his supporters around this message.

Media & podcasts

  • Pod Save America — Media · Podcast (this episode) · 5 mentions · first at
    Source program where hosts discuss midterm polling and strategy; production and sponsors are described.
  • Siena College — Media · Polling partner (Siena/DNYT polls referenced) · 9 mentions · first at
    High - polling partner referenced
    Yep. Right. Yep. That brings us to our last state, Maine. Time Sienna has Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins by six, 51 to 45. Woohoo.

Sponsors

  • Walmart — Sponsor · Sponsor (episode advertiser) · 3 mentions · first at
    Episode includes an ad read promoting Walmart's low-price merchandising and Great Value product line; provided a call-to-action link.
    Potty America is brought to you by Walmart. Every single week, Walmart keeps prices low for 150 million Americans across the country. It is all part of their decades long commitment to hardworking families that started back.
  • CrookedCon — Event · Promotional event · 3 mentions · first at
    Hosts promoted CrookedCon (Crooked Media event) with a flash-sale code in episode preamble; part of Crooked Media programming referenced for listeners.
    That's what croo's about. but I do think that if Abdul runs close to Joselyn Benson, doesn't have to get right up next to Joselyn Benson, but doesn't kind of perform I think…
  • Wildgrain — Sponsor · Episode sponsor · 4 mentions · first at
    Read as a paid sponsor advertisement offering baked goods subscription and a promo code to listeners.
    Wild Grain delivers sourdough breads, seasonal pastries, and French butter made with simple, recognizable ingredients by small independent bakeries. All delivered to your door and.
  • ZipRecruiter — Sponsor · Episode sponsor · 2 mentions · first at
    Paid sponsor read offering free trial and CTA for employers to post jobs via ziprecruiter.com/crooked.
    Let Zip Recruiter find the right people for your roles, seasonal or otherwise. Try it for free today at zipcruiter.com/crooked. That's zipcruiter.com/crooked.
  • Vanta — Sponsor · Episode sponsor · 1 mention · first at
    Low - sponsor attribution in ad copy
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Full transcript with timestamps

Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm John Favro. I'm John Love it. Tommy Vtor. On today's show, the midterms are finally here. And the final round of Time Sienna polls show what the averages have been saying all fall. Democrats have a great chance of retaking the Senate and an even better chance of taking the House. We'll go through the final state of play state by state and the message that Donald Trump is using to try to blunt that momentum. What could it be? Uh before we get to all that, quick reminder to join Alex Wagner tonight for a live stream of election results and analysis. The stream starts at 9:00 p.m. Eastern, 600 p.m. Pacific on the Pods Save America YouTube channel. She'll have lots of great guests from the network and beyond, including us, right after we get back from doing Jimmy Kimmel Live tonight. So check that out, too, if you'd like. Uh and then we'll be recording a bonus

episode tonight when we have a handle on all the results. Dan will be here, too. So look for that in your feed tomorrow. Also, if you haven't yet grabbed your tickets for Crooked Con this Saturday, today and tomorrow only, we're having a flash sale. Are we?

It's a flash sale. $30 off your ticket with code CC Midterms 26. CC Midterms 26.

That's CC Midterms 26. Crooked Con Midterms. You got it. You figured it out. Got it.

Uh, it's in the episode description as well. Uh, this flash sale ends Thursday and it's the last chance for discounted tickets. So,

what's a flash sale? Is it just a limited time? Yeah. Boom. We're It's on sale.

Yeah. It's happening. Flash. Uh, and Haley Stevens is now coming. So, that's exciting.

Yeah. Headliner. Yeah. She's going to be there. She's going to moderate a panel.

Mhm. crookedcon.com to get yours and see if Love It's Joking or not. See you this weekend in DC.

All right. The day has arrived. Our last show before polls close in the final midterm election of the Trump era in American politics. No president since Harry Truman has been this unpopular heading into election day. He got us into a war that spiked gas prices to record highs, imposed crushing tariffs on everyone, deployed paramilitary squads to terrorize communities, made billions of dollars for himself and his friends, put states into play that Democrats haven't won in decades. And on Monday, he delivered one final pitch at the Lincoln Memorial to Americans who still haven't made up their minds about whether to keep Republicans in control of Washington for two more years.

Tremendous algae problems. And you have that picture with the algae. It's not an easy thing. The algae is brutal. The green, that's not grass, that's algae. That it took over the entire pool. The pipes, the pipes now are totally renovated. They're brand new pipes put in. It's also something very important in terms of the algae. It creates the bubbles and creates what's necessary that the algae doesn't form. We fixed the granite. We recocked it. All of this has been reccocked. The granite stone is so strong. It literally has a

thousands of years of life. The grass in front of the White House was a very inferior grass for many, many years. And that's a big deal regressing. the sitting president doesn't win the midterms. But

we gave this a very strong shot. I mean, [sighs] if we if we don't win this one, pack it in, guys. Pack it in.

Talking about sod. It was like a resistance lib joke came to life. Like my jaw dropped watching this. They brought the charts out like couldn't believe this was actually happening.

Takes a lot to surprise us 10 years into this But we were watching it live on Fox, our favorite channel with the Chiron said like president speaks one day before critical midterms.

Guys, he literally said in his remarks, "We have a lot of great things planned for the nation and we could get into that, but we don't have enough time."

He don't have enough time, sir. Now is the time because there's a lot of grass to talk about, a lot of algae. after like what like 30 or 40 minutes on uh Renault, he then did a kind of

sad they're going to trans your children sad kind of low energy communist jihadist kind of stuff,

right? Uh and he did it with a mic in front of his face like this and a hat pulled down really low so you couldn't even see him.

His heart wasn't in it. But he also doesn't seem down oddly enough for thinking that he may lose the midterms as he said there and looking at all the polls. He kind of just seems like look I'm here. This is what I care about. I'm trying to keep my moods lifted.

Right. Yeah. Like it's like he's I he's heard that Americans are angry about all these construction projects and he thinks it's because of

anger at them not going well enough as opposed to say the incorrect focus. Yeah. They don't know enough about the success.

Once they hear about what the bubbler's been up to and the challenging sod conditions we were working under, it's very hard to regress.

Very challenging. I think he just doesn't give a I think he doesn't give a either. It's also like it really is a story about how his staff now has no control over him.

Um I talked to Rahm for like 3 minutes today, like one of those two-minute ROM phone calls, and he was like, "If you came into my office and pitched me on a day before the midterms event about the renovations at the reflecting pool, I would have ripped your arm off and thrown you out of the office." It's insane.

I think he wouldn't have even done that at first cuz he would have laughed at you and thought it was like a practical joke that you like a prank that you guys

and throw me in the fire. Did he do a follow-up thing on the arch afterwards? Well, everyone cut away. So, we cut away cuz we were like, I guess that's it. And then I and then cuz then Doug Bergam got up and spoke and then I guess he came back to talk about the arch.

He came back after I they they cut away when I was watching after cuz I was I was literally

he had to get to all of his teller rallies. Uh Donald Trump. He's doing a lot of teller rallies today.

I was at I was at the dentist and my deal and I was like, "Oh, I got to prepare for the pod and so I can so I don't have to do the odd conversation while you're on the dentist chair." So, I so I was watching from my dentist chair.

So, I've evolved on this. I'm now fully headphones in like noise cancellation listening to something cuz first of all I I get huge anxiety the dentist and it's also you can't talk to them anyway. They try to talk to you.

Yeah, I know. I know. Anyway, we're like Trump just talking about the dentist here on the election day in addition to um all of Trump's governing fuckups. Uh did you guys see that Semaphore put together a great roundup of Trump's political fuckups? Yes. That that almost single-handedly put the Senate in play. Um and uh and which do you think were the most consequential? Great list.

Yeah. Well, so I think unforced error list number one I would say is going to war with Iran. That's probably let's just let's just

we have all the governing ones. Let's right. But uh it's tough category. I think Paxton over Cornin is probably the cleanest because it just absolutely put I mean who knows what the actual race would be now if it were Cornin versus Telerico but totally changed the dynamic. And they were saying even before Paxton was the nominee, their their best case scenario was nominating Paxton, a win would require at least another hundred million. So that was the hand the handicap before they even uh went through with it. So I'd say that maybe second being for inexplicably deciding that uh uh Darlene Graham shouldn't just be the interim sen senator, but should also go for the full term.

That certainly put South Carolina on the map. It's crazy. I I I really I think those are better choices and more accurate choices. I really like pushing this idea that choosing JD Vance was a historic mistake.

Yeah, you're same way. Put Ohio on the ballot in 26. And if he hadn't done that, if I hadn't chosen JD, you could imagine Trump getting mad about this and ranting about how if I hadn't chosen JD,

things would be different. Yeah, cuz JD would still be, you know, senator from Ohio.

Really annoying senator. There wouldn't be there wouldn't be a race there. I also I hadn't thought about Tillis either.

Yeah. Um pushing Tillis. Now look, I think bowing out. I think Roy Cooper versus Tillis. Um I still would give that in this environment to Cooper. Um but certainly didn't help.

But we're spending in that scenario, right? We're spending tens of millions of dollars. Like there's all this effort going into North Carolina and the party kind of walked away from it months ago.

And Kemp is kind of a double there, right? Because if if Trump wasn't president or Trump didn't hate Kemp, maybe Kemp would have run for Senate and that probably would have given us off the toughest race. But then Kemp had a guy, this guy Douly, that he wanted to run against OAF. Trump took that guy out with uh with Mike Collins, the bigot. And so um yeah, there goes Georgia. So that's what So that's what So Trump really helped put the Senate in play. Um so we'll see see how that worked out for him. Uh not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but I think it's worth talking about what's next for Trump after Tuesday. Um, lots of reporting the last few days that Netanyahu is pressuring Trump to start striking Iran again as soon as this week. Um, Trump kind of sort of maybe threw some cold water on that to reporters today, but he kind of he was like, "No, not right afterwards. I'm not going to, but maybe.

Who knows?" Like his usual Um, there was also some wild, by wild, I mean terrifying reporting from Tucker Carlson who cited anonymous sources close to Trump saying that the president may be within days of launching a nuclear strike

on Iran's Pickax Mountain um, where quote, "Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its nuclear enrichment program." Tommy, what did you think of Tucker's very long post? It

was a very long post. It's always interesting when people write like the OpEd tweet. It's like, huh? He doesn't do that on show. He doesn't tweet. He doesn't tweet a lot anyway.

Yeah. So, the the Iranians just floated a deal to reopen the trade of hormuz that included some things like lifting sanctions and billions and frozen asset relief that make it hard for me to imagine that Trump would take a deal. So, I think renewed conflict is more likely than not. Um, Pickax Mountain is more likely than not to be a target because it is it is the place you hear the neocons kind of froth in the mouth about because of potentially including a new nuclear site. Um, I personally think the nuclear weapons part is made up. It doesn't make sense really militarily or strategically. I think this could be some Gulf source like you know someone in Qatar or UAE or whatever talking to Tucker and trying to spin him up. Um there were other reports that Trump might want to drop something called the MOAB, the mother of all bombs on pickaxe. That's a really big bomb. It's conventional weapon, but it weighs like

21,000 lbs. Um it that option makes sense because it would have no strategic impact, but it would be a thing Trump would like to talk about.

It's kind of the perfect world for him. Um, but you know, the whole thing was weird. I mean, the the the war is not over. Iran attacked 35 ships in October alone. The Journal had a great piece over the weekend about the escort mission. It requires 50,000 US troops, 20 Navy ships, two carrier strike groups, an additional 2 to3 billion a month above normal military spending

in perpetuity. In perpetuity to keep it open. Um, the other thing about the Tucker Post, it said Obama opposes a deal, which like I don't buy the sourcing there, but also that could be someone said to me, "What if that's just a genius way for Tucker to try to get Trump to like the deal?"

If Obama, that would be some real chess from Tucker Carlson. There does seem like no matter what happens uh in the elections, all Trump has is foreign policy stuff like this

and Renos home renos. That's better. I'd rather he do the Renos. I' I've heard that

regime change abroad, renovations at home. I've heard that Rubio, Besson, and Ratcliffe kind of want to keep the economic pressure on and stay the course. That Vance and Wickoff want a deal and sort of the Gulf. I'm

sure does. Oh, absolutely. Excuse me. I'm going to be running for president in this.

Yeah. And then you'll never guess who really wants to run it back and do war 2.0.

Pedex ethic, of course, apparently. And I think Trump is leaning that way because I think he doesn't care about politics. I mean, look, like we were said at the top, the the ballroom press events to like close out the midterms shows. He doesn't care about politics anymore. Um, I think he just wants to show that he can dominate the Iranians and will probably do it. He wants a few like if if things don't go well in the midterms, he wants a few good headlines.

Yeah. He doesn't care how long they last, right? He's not looking for like some permanent peace or negotiation. He just wants a few good headlines. So, if he bombs some things, maybe people will be like, "Ah, he dropped some bombs. He's strong again." That's this is this is as far as the thinking goes.

It wasn't al wasn't as if when uh Bush held that press conference after the shellacking in 2006 where uh he relieved Donald Rumsfeld that suddenly everyone was like, "Oh, good."

Yeah. It didn't didn't buy a lot of goodwill. Did not. It's the right thing to do, but didn't buy him goodwill.

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article.com/crooked and the discount will automatically be applied at checkout. That's article.com/crooked for 50 bucks off your first purchase of $100 or more. All right, on Sunday night, we got the final batch of Time Sienna polls. By the way, Sunday night release, I you know, I was up 4 in the morning.

Yeah, it was rude. I was I thought it was going to happen Friday, Thursday morning, Friday morning, Saturday morning, checking the checking the phone and then all of a sudden Sunday it's like dinnertime Pacific and I'm like what? Now we're getting them. I had to drop everything.

A terrible football game on we're doing things. Anyway, these polls gave Democrats across the country a sinking feeling in our stomachs for the sole reason that they seem too good to be true.

Yeah, we don't trust. That's where we're at right now. Listen, bad polls, we feel the bad the pit in our stomach. good polls, we feel the pit in our stomach.

Well, because it's not real. Good feelings aren't real. That's not real. Only only only anxiety is real. That's our pattern. That's our pattern that we seek to recreate in our politics.

And yet, we still read them anyway with great interest. All right. Abdul Elsad up 11 in Michigan.

Hot poll. Hot poll. Little hot. Feels tough to buy that one. James Taro up seven in Texas. Troy Jackson up six in Maine. Shared Brown up five in Ohio. Adam Hamilton up five in Kansas. Mary Pelola up two in Alaska. Josh Turk up one in Iowa. Um we will take these state by state. We'll start with Michigan. Uh again, Time Sienna has Abdul up 11 over Mike Rogers, 5342. That's the biggest margin of the group. Uh Nate Silver's average has Abdul up just shy of five points. Uh, all very encouraging signs that are uh just getting slightly overshadowed by Haley Stevens uh shocking decision to endorse Mike Rogers on Sunday morning, which included going to church with him in holding a press conference afterwards.

Uh Stevens had told fellow Democrats literally the night before, hours before I think that she that she definitely would not endorse Rogers. Um, and so that was a turn of events that Stevens had just a bit of trouble explaining in an incredibly [snorts] awkward interview with Anderson Cooper on Sunday night. Um, we're going to play a bunch of it. I'm going to do a longer clip here because it's just

it's unbelievable. It's one of the most unbelievable interviews I've seen. Debbie Dingle said that she talked to you at midnight last night and that you told her you were not going to endorse Mike Rogers. If that is true, what changed between then and this morning? Well, look, this is just a weight off my shoulders, okay? A Abdul has been getting angrier and angrier.

Back in August, you posted on social media, quote, "Mike Rogers will be another rubber stamp for Donald Trump's dangerous agenda. We can't afford to give MAGA another Senate seat in November. How do you Why is it okay now? Why can you afford now to give MAGA another Senate seat in November? Well, why is it okay to have the Democratic party and a top nominee, you know, ejecting uh, you know, this type of or injecting rather this type of of anger and lack of kindness. It sounds like you're upset with me too, Anderson.

No, I'm not. I'm just You're not really answering any of my questions. So, I'm It's somewhat frustrating. Do you want Democrats agenda?

I absolutely do. I just I'm just casting my vote this one way. Michigan, there's a lot of people out there voting. I

But with all due respect, you're casting your vote that way and you're on television right now talking about it and you had a press conference earlier. There's reports that more than half of your staff has quit. Is that accurate?

Look, I have an incredible team in Washington. Um, obviously they they cast their votes. You said in a press conference today,

we can't stand with hate. Do you believe that Abdul Al sayed is hateful or an anti-semite?

I'm just sick of who he stands with. He's picking Assan and the uncle wanted to be at a public event uh with him up until some point I guess yesterday. And I it's just an interesting change and I think a lot of people are curious to try to understand it.

Was that a question? Uh, no. I wanted to see if you wanted to fill in the silence, but you don't.

Oh, Jesus Christ. Yeah. Dude, you you told Debbie Dingle you were not going to do this. Is that correct? last night at some point

Anderson that that that is you know nice editorializing and nice bits of information about speaking about what's going on with Michigan politics I'm giving you the courtesy of

I had an opportunity to go to a church service and have a prayerful moment it was Sunday it was very beautiful it was about friendship of which I have many incredible friends in the Democratic party and I care a lot about them.

You don't want to say whether you had a conversation with Deputy Gangle. Okay, Congresswoman Haley, I really Haley Stevens, thank you very much. I appreciate [clears throat] your time.

So, I had not watched it on normal speed. It is so much worse than at like 2x. Oh, man. So, like I, you know, Dan and I uh did a a reaction to the news um on Sunday on YouTube and you know, I sort of got all my anger out there and then I watched that Sunday night and I suddenly like shifted to just feeling like uh people have got to just someone who knows her who uh she's still listening to has to just like get her off TV and stop doing press and cuz like something is just something is off there. That's it. But what do you guys think? I felt bad for her after the CNN interview and then this morning I woke up and saw that she was talking to the free press and Scott Jennings's radio program and was on this endless media tour and so I think I went back to not feeling bad for her.

Yeah. To be clear, I I don't feel bad for her at all. I feel like um for her for her own sake, but also for like doing the dam all the rest of the damage she's doing. Like I think everyone including Haley Stevens would be better off if Haley Stevens just went away for long.

Yeah, I think she's doing the most damage to herself right now. I mean I think like for a duel like obviously this is not how you want to close out the campaign. this is not the message you wanted to be talking about and it's it is catnip for the media. Um and you could see a bit of his frustration coming through when he was getting asked only about this. I think Abdul actually handled the questions about Haley quite well at the press conferences. He did and tried to stay focused on the issues, but like I spent my weekend rage tweeting. I can't imagine how he felt or the people work for him. Um I kind of think her antics won't have a big impact on the outcome. There was a very few undecided voters left in Michigan. I think less than 5%. Um, Democrats have largely coalesed around Abdul. If you were having doubts about Abdul, did you need Haley Stevens to tell you not to vote for him? Like, I don't know. She

also seems, I think, genuinely unwell. Um, she may be in the midst of a mental health crisis, so she's probably not the best messenger, especially as she continued talking over and over again. Um, there is a chance maybe this rallies the base, too. I I don't know, but she looked so petty and small, and I think it laid bare the standard, the double standard that Abdul has held to, which is he is called on to denounce this random ad, all sorts of things in her statement. Uh, but she has no problem endorsing a candidate who is running one of the most bigoted, nakedly racist campaigns that I've ever seen.

Yeah. So, so I when when when I saw this happen, I was like nodding my stomach and I saw people kind of wish casting like, "Oh, maybe this will backfire." And now I look pretty convinced it will backfire in part because she is so incoherent. And watching someone say that they want there to be a Democratic Senate, but they are voting against Abdul and being unable to defend it and being unable to defend how they could violate so many of their principles, including saying they are campaigning against hate. Uh having made a series of demands of Abdul, including the most important one for her that he met and which she praised him for meeting and then turning around. So which which condemning the the contents of the rebellion pack.

Yeah, there's the the rebellion ad by uh uh Jenkuger and the uncle the uncle the uncle clearly impactful clearly like his insertion into this race was was wonderfully helpful. Fantastic work. But he but Abdul did denounce first of all he had already disavowed it. He then disavowed and disagreed with it. Great. Like I had thought it was a good thing for him to do not because he was trying to win over Haley Stevens but because for some small subset of people who were maybe undecided and reluctant and who are be Jewish Democrats specifically in Michigan being delued with anti-abdul hysteria it was a free opportunity to dis to to disentangle having extreme criticisms of Israel while being able to call out anti-semitism. Glad he does that. She still changes her mind. Uh, so she endorses, unendorses, endorses, and then unendorses Abdul while claiming nothing has changed for her. All of that to me adds up to kind of Democrats kind

of coalesing around Abdul. And like you have really strong statements from everyone from Chuck Schumer to the to the left saying that they uh uh uh uh are extremely upset with Haley Stevens for doing this. So in the end, I think it becomes a unifying moment. Plus, he raises a bunch of money off of it. So, in the end, do I think she makes a big difference? Like, there's probably a lot that fiance uh was saying how she was getting a a standing ovation from thousands. I don't know where that was taking place. Uh

some some event I saw some clip of it. Yeah. A Jewish community event, I think, fundraiser. Yeah.

I I have a feeling that she is getting a lot of applause from a subset of Democratic voters who are planning to vote for against Abdul. Anyway, I don't know who is being brought along by Haley Stevens and for everybody else. I think is a a unifying moment about the stakes in the election. And by the way, Abdul's remarks right after where he talked about I just thought were excellent. Uh and uh that's it.

It's just worth pointing out too that like for those listening and thinking, why didn't he just denounce the ad earlier, her ransom note included much more than just denouncing the ad. It was like the ad didn't invent its argument. It dramatized one of Dr. Elsai's made in his own words. So she wanted him to basically condemn his own past statements and policies. also uh get get Israel out of his explanation for everything Michigan can't afford. Apparently, we can't talk about the Iran war increasing costs. She also wanted him to uh take down his advertisement featuring Tucker Carlson,

which by the way, which she said was an insult to the black community. Like, it was just like this crazy all over the place statement from her.

I was think I've had this sort of um uh this sort of experience of being on both sides of the algorithm in the last couple days, right? Because

straight shooter. Well, because we posted we posted a video of mine saying that Jewish voters in Michigan have a moral obligation to support Abdul, which uh got me just absolutely v like I just oh, you know, you would have you would have been a Jew loading people on the trains. Like that level kind of that's terrific. And then I I point out that I actually do think that that Chankad is anti-semitic and that Abdul should denounce it. uh uh not because he hasn't been against anti-semitism, but just because I thought it was a free opportunity to demonstrate the points he's been making about the difference between uh having a disagreement on Israel and when a ton of people feel as though uh they're being targeted that he'll stand up for them. Fine. Uh uh I think those two things do go together and I think you see why when you have someone like Haley Stevens uh who is abandoning everything that she claims to

care about and claiming to making a decision based on hate while siding with Mike Rogers and making zero demands of him. She makes ridiculous demands of Abdul not just to disavow an ad, which I thought Abdul should denounce before Haley Stevens ever put out a statement, but also to basically relitigate the disagreements they had over the course of the primary and a completely specious attack on an ad with Tucker Carlson. If Tucker Carlson is saying bad things about Mike Rogers, damn right, get that in front of people. Let's stop eating babies. It was ridiculous fake attack.

But then also going over to Mike Rogers, no no no no problem with the hateful rhetoric for Mike Rogers. No reassurances needed for Haley Stevens on any of that. Well, this is I mean I I had a suspicion around the time when she was uh you know the calls to for him to condemn the ad and all that like none of this was on the level that uh and the reason that Abdul's team did not want to make a big deal of going even further to condemn the ad is because they knew that no condemnation is going to be enough for Haley Stevens and the people around Haley Stevens and the people criticizing Abdul and it's like apologize for this.

Okay, I apologize for this. denounce this ad or I denounce this ad. Don't say this. It's like what you want is for him not to have the position he has on Israel. That's what you want. like be beyond that like it's never it's never and then when your criticism of Abdul uh doesn't seem like it's working with enough uh you know Jewish Democrats in Michigan now you're going to throw in that he uh somehow that like black Democrats in Michigan should be wary of Abdul because of because Tucker Carlson is in an ad for 5 seconds saying that he wouldn't vote for Mike Rogers with a gun to his head as if that is some like you know beyond the pale thing to include in an ad. The whole thing is And she proved it because he goes and denounces the ad. And then she's like, I don't want you to just denounce the ad. I want you to denounce what you said in the primary about Israel. And it's like, well, the primary

happened. Uh, he won. You endorsed him without a problem then, and now you're going back and saying he should. I mean, it's just ridiculous.

Yeah. I I I feel like these are separate things. I I agree. You're not I don't think Abdul should denounce the ad to please Haley Stevens or the people that will for whom there will never be enough. I thought it was the right thing to do to announce the ad in part because it's being shared around Michigan as being his ad which I don't think is fair. Uh and the fact that he went from, you know, disavowing to say he disagrees with the statement and which which Haley Stevens seems to celebrate. Like it points out that Haley Stevens is not on the level. It doesn't mean that he isn't that it isn't the right thing to do in that case. Like I thought it was I think it got harder as the week went on. Like I think if he had just said that he disagreed with it from the beginning, I don't think it would have changed Haley Stevens. But clearly like this was a roing issue like

I think it was I think it was a roying issue online in certain communities. I think in crass political terms Abdul's job is to talk about the things he wants to talk about in a campaign and keep the focus on the issues he wants to focus on. So like I I could make a political argument for why you don't denounce that ad because you don't want to get sucked into this morass of like relitigating all the that we fought about in the primary. Like I I could also make the argument that denounce it, put out a statement and move on, right?

I think it's like I I just like I like you could go either way. I think but he ultimately does disavow it, right? Like he does

and it didn't help and well it didn't help with Haley Stevens, right? And it like it it like well first of all it I mean who knows we can't making decisions about what to do in politics.

The point I'm making about the is a messaging focus one which is like she this wasn't about the advert. Like this feels like a political roll out that started with her fianceé which led to this crazy statement which led to this weird back and forth and her lying to like everyone she knows in her life, her political mentors, people she was with at dinner and then culminating in like this is what Anderson Cooper was trying to get out like what changed between midnight like Saturday and Sunday morning. It's inexplicable. Yes.

Right. Which is why I just like don't trust that any of this would have helped because she was the one creating the like firestorm.

Yeah. What I'm trying to separate out, I agree that what I'm trying to separate out is the fact that Haley Stevens ultimately said she was pleased with his statement and then does this crazy back and forth uh Hamlet routine until abandoning Abdul part of whatever is going on in that relationship, whatever she's saying, lying, whatever, I don't have to worry about Haley Stevens, she seems out of her mind. Fine. Uh whether or not it was helpful to denounce the ad, like I think it was the right thing to do. I was glad he did it and I was glad that Haley Stevens said it was the that he that that she was pleased by the statement which seemed to have resolved it like I take your point like uh he could have whether it was like necessary to go further in that first statement whether he could have dispelled with it right at the beginning I don't know that that changes anything to do with Haley Stevens I I just as I

like just want to separate out Haley Haley Stevens does not get to be the arbiter of what counts as anti-semitism she does not get to be the person that sets the standard uh for what uh is sort helpful to a small subset of reluctant Jewish voters in Michigan. Also, that small set subset of reluctant Jewish voters aren't going to be the difference maker in this election to your point, which is why they ended up bringing in all this other about how the Tucker Carlson is anti-black. Fine. Uh I just think those things should be separated because I like I am glad that Abdul denounced the ad in part because my argument to Jewish voters who may not make a difference in the election but who I care about because I'm part of that community. I want them to understand why I believe feel so strongly that it is important because of Jewish values to support this campaign.

And I think what Haley Stevens is doing is helping to make that case. Yeah. And I do think that I mean we'll see how the results go, but just looking at this back to the Times Sienna poll. So this was like obviously you know probably Abdul's best result in a poll that we've seen. It is he matches uh Jocelyn Benson's margin pretty much in this poll. He matches he and Benson match the generic ballot in Michigan in this poll. So it's about what 10 or 11 points. Um if Trump won one won Michigan by what one two points and there's a shift to the nation the shift of the entire nation left about nine points on average in some of these polls. That pretty much lines up with where Michigan would be in the poll. Abdul is winning 96% of Kla Harris voters and only 2% of Kla Harris voters are voting for Mike Rogers. So, Democrats for Mike Rogers is not a real thing, at least in this poll, unless the poll was completely wrong.

Now, uh this was versus 91%. 915 was the split in September. So, last time Sienna did this, Abdul's winning 91% of Democrats, 5% were with Mike Rogers, and now it's 96-2. Abdul's fave favorability rating in this poll. 50% favorable, 38% unfavorable. Rogers is 3749. Trump is 3460. Abdul is favored on cost of living by 5437. Foreign wars 5239. Best for uh Michiganders like you 5339. So again, we could be waking up Wednesday and the whole poll could be wrong, but at least according to this poll, like the the the media narrative, which is pushed obviously by Republicans, but also some centrist Democrats, some is that like Abdullah is extreme, he's too far-left, hateful, footsies with all this kind of like none of that is showing up in the actual numbers in these numbers that we've seen. Again, there could be something hidden, but at least in what we've seen, they're not showing.

Where did the uncle rank on? Yeah, uncle. It was actually it was like cost of living

uncle uh and then and and and hate and just hate and then it was uh the economy again.

You know what's interesting about the poll? Look, you Nate Nate Cohen to his credit uh talked about why they put this out even though obviously it is um if like if it turns out that it's closer, they're going to be like, "Oh, wow. They were so off. They were so in favor of the Democrats in this poll." And they talked about the challenge of reaching Republican voters. and they released the data of what the poll would look like if they kind of adjusted it down and and Democrats are still winning uh in that in that polling. But let's say that that even if the polling is a little bit off, it's not crazy off, right? And and Abdul really does have a sizable lead. I do think a lot of the debate that you see that clearly Haley Stevens is steeped in, her fiance is steeped in, uh is about what it would have looked like if it was much closer, right? The urgent need for him to make concessions on specific policies around Israel, right?

urgent like the effort to tar him in this specific way for a subset a small subset of voters in Michigan, right? Jewish voters are a small subset of Michigan. Uh but based on this polling, that's just really not what's going on, which is making

I also don't want to pin this on Jewish voters in Michigan because there are plenty of Jewish voters in Michigan that are behind Abdul. And then there are plenty of people who are not Jewish at all who have been propagating these narratives about Abdul, including Mike Rogers.

I should be No, no, sorry. I should be I should be I think that like the the effort to appeal to Jewish voters in this way and to appeal to voters who may not this may not be their number one issue but it's a kind of shibilith about being a lefty fine no yes and that that will have turned we'll see we'll see how important that was one other thing I just I watched the Ross Douet conversation with Abdul the full full conversation and

that's the that's mustsee TV uh well and and yeah as long as there's NFL lead in. Some people agree with you.

Well, this is only available online cuz it's the the unedited claim, right? This is the Trump insisted uncut pure uncut doubt. Doubted

Abdul uncut doubted. That's what I want. Yeah. Uh but uh I don't know. I assume it is an uncut doubt.

Okay. Well, it's Catholic. I don't know how it works over there. But so anyway, he's a traditionalist. Uh it's a great conversation and obviously the parts that have been clipped out have been about Israel but it was just interesting to watch Abdul have a long substantive somewhat contentious conversation about healthcare about data centers about the economy and capitalism about democratic socialists and it was just a reminder too that like Abdul in the Senate uh will just be an interesting thoughtful policy voice around a whole range of issues and he's an incredibly smart and talented politician and uh like thinker about democratic politics and policy and that also I think gets lost in this Haley Stevens uh uh uh uh chaos but that I was reminded of that today. Pod America is brought to you by Zip Recruiter. The holidays are fast approaching which means thousands of companies have seasonal positions to

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bit more than three points. As we've discussed, Hamilton has done a great job of making an issue of uh, Roger Marshall's history of sending debt collectors after his patience back when he was in OBGYn uh, and in some cases leading to them uh, going to jail. Marshall apparently got sick of his campaign's refusal to respond more forcefully to these charges. And according to the New York Times, he went around his staff. This is always when you know things are getting good. He went around his staff to record this ad with his own film crew um which he then posted on Twitter. Amazing. Let's watch.

I'm Dr. Roger Marshall and you should know the truth about Adam Hamilton's ads. Their faults, plain and simple. Now, to ensure that 40,000 canons would still have access to care, we did have to keep the lights on. So, we occasionally handed some accounts over to collection agency just like nearly every private medical practice does. To be crystal clear, the Kansas Bill of Rights ensures that no one can go to prison because of indebtedness, and I would never wish that on any patient I had the privilege to serve. My involvement in any patient's account ended the minute it was turned over to an outside agency. I never had anyone arrested, not once. And Adam Hamilton not had anyone arrested is is your closing message. Um, in case you want to parse what he's saying there, it is in the Kansas Bill of Rights that you can't go to jail for having debt. But what happened was people who got the debt collection

notices and might not have known then got a summon if they didn't appear in court for the summons then they went to jail as a result or they were there was arrest warrant there was a arrest warrant from the bench for them as a result. So it is it is still true that people because of the debt collection ended up uh arrested. It's unfair.

I saw this ad and I didn't I actually hadn't seen the reporting about it. I saw this ad and the first thing I thought is he made them do this. His key is he is furious. Uh like like Haley Stevens is in these crazy text messages that's riing her up. He was riing himself up with his doctor buddies about how he's getting the shaft in this campaign.

Your mother was Jason Turkish. Yeah. In the mastermind. The mastermind behind the whole goddamn thing. Well, I'm sure. Yeah. He's probably got the group chat going. Everyone's spinning him up and he's like, "You know what? I'm going to grab my Merllo shirt and I'm going to go out there and I'm going to talk about how I never knowingly had any new mothers arrested." And I think this is going to work for me because the Kansas Bill of Rights says no one can go to prison because of indebtedness. But they might. It's like what do you

someone someone get me that folksy guitar riff that's in all those. We don't need much more than that.

Now I want to be holding the fence. I want to be off to the side of the show. One hand on the fence and and like the way they rolled it out was the staff refused to air the thing. So he emailed it to random people. So one guy posted. So, you get all the earned media of this ad kicking back up the stories about him getting the woman who just had a C-section arrested three times, but you get none of the benefit of paid media getting your message in front of people. It is the biggest like campaign cell phone I could imagine. The first time I I was really like that that that the race really caught my attention was when they had a debate at the state fair uh just and and uh first of all, Hamilton is just a great candidate. Uh but then Roger Marshall couldn't get a word out because he was being booed over this and this has clearly just been dogging him everywhere he's going and it must been driving him crazy and their internals

must not look so great because he's saying, "Well, it. I want this message out there and the staff is refusing to air it and leaking that they're refusing to air it."

It sounds so corrupt. That staff sounds terrible. Yeah. This poll has Hamilton leading a a sample in the poll that leans Republican by nine points and he's ahead by five points. The House ballot in the poll is 50 to 47 uh Republicans. So there's a three-point lead on the House ballot. It's a 9-point lean in the state and Adam Hamilton still up five and this with this electorate in the poll. Um, another thing that was interesting is the number of voters who had either no opinion or didn't know have never heard of him of Adam Hamilton fell from 36% last time there was a good poll from New York Times Sienna in this state to just 13%. So, as he has gotten much more well-known, usually your approval rating goes down um if the negative ads are working, but for him it's only it's only gotten better. Um, and he's got 13% of Republicans supporting him. And Roger Marshall, his favor, his favorable

rating is 39% in this poll. 39% is also his very unfavorable rating. So, not just total unfavorable, it's people who have an extremely unfavorable view of him is also the same as those who have a favorable view of him.

And this is a state where I'm skeptical of the polling for demographic reasons and because I don't know, it seems like it's hard to pull Kansas. But Nate Cohen uh had a piece where he wrote about how the Times in 2022 had a poll that had uh Sharice Davids up 14 points in the third congressional district in Kansas. They downplayed it because it seemed unrealistic and then she won by 12. So they have a track record of actually calling the ball right in Kansas, which was interesting.

I had forgotten about that one. The other one I thought about is in 2022 the abortion ban. So like we've now I mean it sounds the whole Kansas thing sounds crazy but when you think about the shares David's race when you think about the abortion ban which was a statewide ballot initiative and you think about the fact that Laura Kelly is governor right now uh Democrat Kathleen Sibilius uh our friend Kathleen Sabir Sibelius has been you know very popular Democratic governor like it's not crazy that there would be a Democrat elected in Kansas or at least not as crazy as it seems at first look. Yeah, I think there's a lot of people that have taken uh the current specific conditions of uh red states as sort of like some immutable fact of politics. The ACA passes in part because you have people like Ben Nelson in Nebraska, right? It's just not we're not that far off from having uh Democrats as uh uh senators in

these places. The idea that it's uh it's better to talk about abolishing the Senate than actually competing and winning these places, I think is uh pretty foolish.

Closing message from uh Matt Schlap. Remember Matt Schlap? Yeah. Yeah. He did some he did he did some sch slapping trouble got him in trouble. Conservative national conservative Trump guy. Um he he posted, "Dear Kansas conservatives, if we lose the Senate race in Kansas, we most likely lose the majority in the Senate. Vote Republican tomorrow. Even those of you who are hurting, if you don't, it will all get much worse. Your message of frustration has been heard loudly and clearly."

What a what a message. And also, has it has it been heard loudly and clearly by who? by who who has heard the message,

right? I mean, the it's just so hard the the other part of this which is hard to untangle from the polls is okay, there's a concern that some of these rural voters uh these Trump voters may not be as enthusiastic and either they're not going to vote or they're just not talking to pollsters. But also, we know that the tariffs and the and the and the war has had this disproportionate impact on some of his of Trump's best places, right? And so it's just hard to disentangle what that will be. And actually, you know, that's that's why I think it's

the the kind of hurting in polling. It leads to either everyone moving together correctly or everyone moving in together incorrectly. But in this case, I think we have a slightly of a slightly outlier poll saying like maybe things are actually uh uh moving in this direction for real. We'll see.

Uh over in Alaska, the race is closer with Mary Pelola just two points up on Dan Sullivan according to the Times. Uh it's not far off from where Nate's model has the race uh where Pelola is up by around two and a half points. Um it is the only poll in the Times last batch of polls where the margin has gotten tighter for Democrats. I think she was up six or seven in the last one. We also got an update on the uh Dan Sullivan Dan Sullivan ballot stacking scandal. The two Dan Sullivans, the Dan Sullivan. Uh on Sunday, a federal judge dismissed the Department of Justice's Trumpord ordered lawsuit trying to block the election certification. If the incumbent Sullivan lost, Trump is still complaining about the ballot stacking. Of course, he talked about at the reflecting pool event on Monday after posting a photo of the final Alaska ballot with the word scam. You got Tim Shehy who's the senator from Montana saying, "Of course

we should never seat Mary Pelola if she wins." Um what's your level of concern about the ballot stacking issue at this at this late stage? I would say I'm a little there's like two levels to it. One, is this going to bother undecided voters and turn them away from Pelola? We don't know. I'm skeptical that it's gonna be a lot of people, but it could move enough at the margin. And then two, it's like, will Trump try to use this story as a pretext to overturn the results if Republicans lose? I think one, we don't know. Two, absolutely. And the DOJ amended their lawsuit to include all the New York Times reporting um before it was tossed. So, it's very frustrating because uh even like I don't think this is going to really impact the vote all that much because of the way Alaska votes, but uh it was a ham-handed foolish attempt to do some dirty tricks that uh I think is backfiring pretty pretty badly. This is the one where um I

think the one race where I was like my view of the race has gone from the most bullish uh to like now I don't I don't really know. A Alaska is very very hard to poll. Um it's just hard to get people on the phone there. It's hard to get people on the phone anywhere, but especially in Alaska. Um also I think

because it's so cold. You wonder why that is. You' think with it so cold you'd be inside.

Yeah. I think it's just that like it's so rural and people are so spread out. It's all over. I think it's just it's a tough electorate to kind of

um and the but they're not going door to door. I mean I I agree with you. I'm not saying you're doing a grid, but I actually haven't thought about it. Why does them being far apart from one another change the way they answer the phone?

Yeah. Well, they also I mean they're they're doing mail, they're doing online surveys, they're doing all that kind of stuff. Um I think that uh also the Dan Sullivan is a is he's like you're seeing in these polls he's like more well-liked than some of these Republican nominees. So that's it's just it's just hard to it's hard to tell uh what's actually going to happen there. And um so it's you know it's it's it's up in the air.

Yeah. The only the third thing I would just add to Tommy's list is even if there is nothing inherently illegal with having some random other Dan Sullivan run, is there any exposure in the effort to keep it a secret?

Uh, and the the the deception about it uh which I think would play into Trump's hand as well and Trump's DOJ's hands as well. We'll see. Um, here's my question. If the if the if the response is, well, it doesn't really matter because there's rank choice voting, what was the value of doing it? We Dan and I talked about this uh on Friday and it it like there wasn't a ton of value in doing it. There if you really dig into it if you rank the different choices like there's some

some people drop off. Maybe they only vote once I think like yes here's the thing they every every Alaskan voter that they've interviewed since then have been like first of all we knew this was happening the whole time. You have to you have to think we're idiots to not understand which which is says something bad both about the effort to do it and the effort to make people think that the effort to do it was sleazy and beyond the pale cuz most people in Alaska I think are just like yeah of course we know the difference and like what the

it is sleazy but question whether it be efficacious that's what I'm saying right which is I think that people in Alaska were skeptical about

I think weirdly in 2014 there were two Dan Sullivans on the ballot at the same time just by happen stance yeah but um just to be clear like the Republicans do it too in Alaska I think because of the system, there's always just efforts to like leech away a few votes from each side. And I think this cycle, uh, the main Republican super PAC spent like 500 grand to get a Green Party candidate who lives in Arizona to run. And there was like there was a lot of paid communications, like $800,000 worth of paid communications designed to siphon votes away from Democrats to fringe candidates. So, for some reason, everyone just around in Alaska.

I would say Sarah Longwell's um final focus group was Alaska voters. Uh, I was listening to the episode over the weekend and she's talking to Amy Walter. First of all, talking about why it's hard to pull Alaska. Sarah could only get three Alaska voters for the focus group. That's she was like looking far and wide. Um, and you did

one of them was a moose. You did hear these these three women who were like pretty conservative saying like don't like Trump, but like Dan Sullivan's always been they all know Dan Sullivan. They all know Mary Paula, right? Because it's a small enough state. Um but the best anecdote which will confirm all of our priors was um there's this woman who a Trump 24 voter Sullivan 22 voter

or Sullivan 20 voter sorry six years ago um and was like you know I was going to I don't I'm not happy with Donald Trump but I like Dan Sullivan and I was just going to I was going to vote for him again and just vote the same way but then Trump came to the state and did that rally

and now not going to do it. voting for Pelola. It's so funny that Trump goes to Alaska in his rally turned off a voter.

Yeah. The the the other thing too is that the like these polls are all obviously very good news for Democrats if they hold. Uh but one I talked about this with Dan this morning uh on the rapid response that uh it also shows late breaking voters going towards Republicans by plus N which is a little bit confusing. Uh but take that as a fact. Then if people really are breaking towards Republicans, it really won't matter if the margins are where they're at in these other states, you have a bunch of Democrats over 50. But here in in Iowa, in Alaska, where it's this close, people late breaking uh could close the gap.

Yeah, I think I think it makes sense, but it's also not something to it's not unexpected because these are red states that Donald Trump won by double digits. And so the undecided vote is naturally going to be mostly Republican voters. And so you're going to get some to the extent that the Republican creeps up, you're going to get voters coming home, which is why you're getting like these late deciders or later deciders who tune who who are just tuning in late actually go just coming home to

Republicans. It would be Yeah. I Yes. It would be that there are late deciders in an environment where a lot of Republicans who have decided early decided to vote for a Democrat.

Yes. Right. Um all right, let's talk Texas. uh where the times had helico up by seven points and leading Ken Paxton by uh three and a half points in Nate's model. Like Trump, Paxton's also closing strong. His campaign appeared to cancel the final event of his come and take it tour which was set to take place at the Alamo. He canled the event at the Alamo. Well, your other option is get slaughtered by Santa Ana's guys. So, it's just funny. It's funny too because I can see being talked into the Alamo metaphor and then also being talked out of the Alamo metaphor because it is a it is perhaps a place to do your last stand, but of course the reason we do remember the Alamo.

You've got to stand though. You got to go. You can't forget the Alamo. It's got to be a stand in order to be the last stand there. But also, it's not like it's a metaphor about winning. It's a metaphor about getting

imminent death, getting the big L. And it's where PB Herman's bicycle was most importantly.

No basement in the Alamo. No basement in the Alamo. That's what we learned. Paxton also closed his speech on Sunday by saying, quote, "Texas has never been this close to slipping away. We've never been this close to losing everything that we hold dear. If Texas falls, we don't have another Texas to move to," which is technically true. So,

just going to float down the Gulf. I I also just That's a very funny kind of sentence for just a losing candidate. It's just like, "Hey, do you think there's a chance that you're talking about yourself? Are you a little worried?" You know, it's like like this is a very big deal for you to lose. I feel it was very emotional for you, Ken Paxton. Uh, last thoughts on Texas, blue Texas. Is it happening?

I mean, it's weird to feel good about Texas. It's mostly because of the demographics, like 40% Latino. Um, it's because Paxton is such a historically terrible candidate. I mean, he gave a he gave a pedophile a sweetheart deal. He stole from his friends. His staff reported him to the FBI. He was impeached by Republicans. And he seems to uh have a hard time keeping it within the confines of his marriage. Everything like he does. What's funny about that is the next way to say it.

What's funny about that is basically those all apply to Trump. Yeah, that's true.

Every single one. That's true. I also just think they they tried really hard to make Tyler Rico into a boogeyman.

It just it doesn't seem like it's worked particularly well. I don't know. Yeah, Terico's skilled. James Terico is too much of a for Texas. Just didn't work. I think we like he he's his favorable rating in this poll is like plus 10 and P Paxton is uh negative 21. Now if Paxton ends up pulling this out and winning, you can see here he gets Paxton in this poll gets 44% of the vote even though he's at 33% approval. So this is like do enough Texas Republicans hold their nose and vote for Ken Paxton? Not because they like Ken Paxton, not even necessarily because they dislike James Talerico, but just because they're Republicans and they can't vote for Democrats. Like that is the because again, this is a state where Trump won. It's Texas. And so, you know, it's a it's a it's a hard partisan lean to overcome.

It's also funny to think about mismanagement in California caused a lot of people to move out of this state. And a lot of those people did end up in Texas. Now, I think that's probably a more conservative group than a typical California voter, but it is also going to be a subset of people who are very motivated around the economy and just not as not as susceptible to kind of hippie- dippy persuasion.

Yeah. And and so and Tal uh Gina Inosa is uh up in this poll as well. Uh that race has been Talerico's like two points ahead of uh Inosa and Paxton's four points behind Abbott. Um, and so, you know, the governor's race is obviously much tighter, but we will see. In Iowa, the race continues to look pretty tight as well. Time Sienna has Josh Turk up just one point on Ashley Henson, 4847. Um, and you know, Nate and his average has it at 7. So, by any measure, it's effectively a tie. Uh, Trump was in Debuke on Sunday where he tried to break the race open by rallying his supporters around this message.

I knew Ashley for a long time and she was a little bit heavier. She knew the weight that was on her. really literally the weight and she knew the importance of what she was doing.

She went out the oldfashioned way too, not with, you know, give me a shot. Boy, she put herself, she went on a regimen. She put herself in shape. She's in perfect shape. She was good. I thought she was great the other way, but she put herself in shape and she did that for years. Me, I put on a couple of pounds at a time.

I had not seen that. I didn't see. I cannot believe that is real. Oh yeah. Oh yeah.

He did that at that was his rally. What? Well, cuz you know what? He's he wants to treat both genders equally.

If he's going to be talking about John Huad's ass non-stop, he's got to say something about the female candidates.

Look, Donald Trump and she she did it the oldfashioned way. She didn't take the shot like I did.

Yeah. All Yeah. Donald Trump, the one issue he's a Calvinist on is weight loss. The uh the uh Also, it's funny, too. He's like Trump's sexuality has always been really interesting and for him it's about the person.

Stapioexual. [snorts] Yeah. He's just like he he like John Hustead that does it for him. Ashley Henson that does it for him. He just what he what he's attracted to. Yeah. It's a body. It's a body but it's also a mind and he doesn't see gender you know the way that we do. Uh so that's that's kind of cool about him.

I asked Harry Anon if um there's you know the polls tell us anything about a benefit from being caked up. So you got to listen to the Sunday episode to hear that.

What's what's caked up? Having a just a big thick juicy ass. Oh yeah. Bounce a quarter off it.

Like a hu. Yeah. Get two dimes and a nickel back. As we've discussed, Democrat Rob Sand seems to be running way ahead of Turk in the governor's race. He's up more than seven in Nate's average. Tommy, what do you think? Do you think there's going to be a bunch of ticket splitters here? Do you think that that that Rob could help Josh get over the finish line at the end?

I hope so. I mean, yeah, Rob's running a really good campaign. It's a unique campaign. It's sort of this nonpartisan campaign. Um, he's also benefiting because his opponent lives in Kansas.

That's always a good thing when you can run against someone who doesn't live in the state. But like I I was talking

How many points do you give him for looking like you? Dozens. Dozens. Point or two at least in the

That's 4x being caked up in my opinion. Um I was talking to JD Schultton earlier today, served in the Iowa State Legislature, ran for Congress. He personally knocked on a thousand doors uh probably in Western where he lives. He says it's the best environment of his political career, meaning like the best targeting, the best lists, uh, more persuasion conversations, the best conversations overall, and like more people knowing what the hell is going on. So, that's that is optimistic. That tells me that Rob's got a really good field program because he's got a lot of money, and then he can hopefully turn out more Democrats and then independents that are Democratic leaning that you need in that state to win. The pessimistic case for Josh Turk in that Senate race is the Republicans spent I think a hundred million dollars against him and Ashley is a way better opponent regardless of what Trump thinks about

her appearance and how she lost weight. I think the question yeah he does love it. The question for Turks the question I think will will be answered by the election is do tariffs and do diesel prices keep home enough conservative farmers that are enraged about the economy?

Yeah, I think this I think you're exactly right. This is a um environment election more than it is candidate on the Senate side, right? Because first of all, got to give Josh Turk his due here. I think when you um talk to people about all these races and all these candidates and you talk about Josh Turk, everyone's like, "Yeah, he's a good candidate. He's a good candidate. He has the best Democratic net favorability in of any of the candidates pulled in this seven state set by New York Times yet." And like it's just so funny because everyone you know a lot about Abdul and James Telerico and who's popular and who's not. Josh Turk most favorable highest favorable rating of anyone in the poll. Now Ashley

Ashley Hinton has the highest favorable rating of any Republican of the seven. So now you the two people who are the most favorable now hers is still 4343. Like that that's what it takes to be the best rated Republican of anyone in these states. Um, but so I think that's why it ends up being like just does Iowa as a state get over the hump of like what the partisan lean is of that state because you know it, you know, Democrat hasn't won it since Barack Obama did. Positive America is brought to you by Vanta. When you run security for a company that's scaling fast, the stakes tend to heighten quickly. More compliance frameworks, more vendors, more risk, and a board that wants to see it all in one place.

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In Ohio, shared leads John Houston ass man by five according to the times and by three according to Nate. Uh, not much to say here other than the fact that the state has apparently set a a midterms early voting record. Also though, they have this horrible law there. There's like one early midterm voting location per county, which is why it's been so hard to do.

Um, well, because you know there's there's there's the counties. Some are very big and some are very small.

Right. Exactly. Exactly. Uh Vance was also in the state on Monday where he closed out the campaign by you know fear-mongering about quote illegal communities of Somali immigrants quote coordinating to flood the polls and drown out Ohio voters. Excellent. Wonderful stuff from the vice president in his home state. Um what do you guys think about this one? This is another this is sort of like Alaska where as we get closer to the end I'm like h can can we do it in Ohio because it's such a it's become such a tough state for Democrats. Again I I I've always believed if anyone can do it it's shared. And I also and like in this poll Amy Actton is also 4943 over Vake uh which is very close to the margin Sherid's margin. Um and so you know Brown's favorables in this poll is 4644.

Uh Houston is 3648. Uh so it's not like anyone likes John Houston and people do like shared Brown but again the you know Donald Trump won this by double digits. So

yeah I I I share your fear. It's it's such a tough state. I think it's trending against us. I'm so used to seeing polls in the end that have the Democrat like 46 47 and then we lose. Um Harry Anon pointed out to me, I mean obviously Shared's a great candidate. He's like the best candidate we could have run. Harry Anen pointed out that there are people respondents in polls who think that shared is the incumbent. Yes.

Which is like a funny goofy thing to imagine. Here's my big hope. I am hoping that Vive Ramwami being the worst person in the world and running one of the most shameful ads in history against Amy Actton will collapse the electorate, throw the election uh to both Actton and shared Brown and hopefully turn the state to us. That's my great hope.

Yeah. Yeah. That that's my feeling too that that like people have got to be demoralized. If you're watching your gumro nominee do this despicable ad campaign that is completely backfired on him, there's another moment where he's confronted by someone else just he's just constantly being kind of hounded by questions following this. He can't defend it. Um it's it's just he's got to bring people down. And in this poll, right, Sherid is up by five. One second.

Leave it in. That's pundit. That's pundit. Sherid's up by five, right? Like there's still there's still room for the poll to be wrong of him still to

it's a dumb Emerson poll that came out right before he recorded that has Houston up three.

You ruined my day. Did you see the photos? There's a tweet that was went pretty viral of um Vive Ramaswami's haircut and it just said Vague went to his barber and said my up. He's just so unappealing. I guess but I guess the the other point of optimism is like it it doesn't really makes like if if it really is this close in in Iowa in Kansas right in in South Carolina wherever like right it just wouldn't make sense that Iowa Iowa is not a hard state compared to those states

app every state that touches Appalachia is the so it's like eastern Ohio western pens like you start getting these areas of the country that are different than the the Republican voters in the plain states but The other thing is you have like you know Hamilton County where Cincinnati is has become like much more democratic right. So like does that offset the rest of the state in some of the rural areas then do you get enough to turn out in Cleveland um which sometimes lags but like you know Sherid did this eight years ago now eight years ago is still a long time but in 2018 was a Trump midterm. What that was was that eight years ago? Yeah. Jesus Christ doing this a long time.

A long time but you know he he did it with a midterm electorate. Oh, uh, all he has to do is, you know, how much how much is Ohio changed the electorate change in 8 years is the question. And the other thing different from 18 is Trump is much less popular than he was when shared won the state in 2018. So, if he wins, that's the explanation.

Yeah, it's it's worth saying I to talk about this with Dan earlier as well, that in 2018 the economy had a positive approval rating. Donald Trump was not nearly as unpopular he is right now. There wasn't a war in Iran. Right. There's a lot of reasons to believe that this should feel different than 2018.

Yep. Right. Yep. That brings us to our last state, Maine. Uh, Time Sienna has Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins by six, 51 to 45. Woohoo.

Uh, Nate has put that in your boba. Didn't go for a quart of wood joke there. Uh, so pretty stable. Uh, a pretty stable, if not overwhelming lead for Jackson that's actually expanded a bit over the course of the fall. Uh, I don't know what how you guys feel. We felt tense about this one for a while, but you know, at less getting better for Jackson as we get to the close.

Dude, I get to I get to man and I have face blindness. I I got I got nothing. I got nothing. I got nothing going on there.

Yeah, we don't. Yeah. I mean, here's here's the one that if you're just we No feel for it

here. On the other side, like we've been talking about all these red states that have partisan leans where Trump won them by double digits and they're just really Republican state. It's going to take a real overperformance among by the Democratic candidate to put them over the top in Alaska, Ohio, Iowa. This is one where if you're just doing like partisan lean and like the and you're doing the generic ballot shifts nine or 10 points, then Maine's like a plus 17 Democratic state.

Right. Right. And I know everyone's like Susan Collins is magic and she's teflon and all this kind of stuff, but like

her approval is way down. Her her approval Yeah. her approval in this poll is 4849, right? Which is still good, but not what it was not what it was Jackson's still underwater but he's 4548 the independence in the poll uh the times poll where she was leading by three were 4747 it is now 5241 in favor of Troy Jackson in this poll so that is probably a big reason why he's leading and the house generic ballot now and Hannah Pingry is running for governor they're like more 5542 so they're now closer to where Troy Jackson is which which tells you that the partisan lean of the state and the polarization of the state is sort of just naturally, you know, like all the the if you were a Democrat and you weren't sure about Jackson, you're kind of coming home at this point. At least that's what the numbers are showing.

This is She's a good politician. I I never thought she was magic. She's a good politician, right? She has and she has done a lot of just good oldfashioned politics in Maine for a very very very long time and that bought her a lot of goodwill and credibility. The question is can that is that a strong enough uh uh you know seaw wall against the waters that that are rising and and hopefully the answer is no. I like that. Sure. How about that?

But but in Maine they loved their invertebrates like Susan Collins. You know what I'm saying?

We're doing metaphors, right? Right. Yeah. Because then also lobsters are invertebrates.

Yeah. We went from surf to turf from guys. They're kind of big bugs. If you think about a lobster, it's kind of like a big bug. They're big gross bugs.

Big delicious bugs. You boil them alive. Hoping to keep all these hoping to keep all these occasional or new listeners after the election. But this kind of

You don't have to show. off. You don't like Yeah. But sorry. Yeah. No skin off my Listen,

no exoskeleton. Best part of the show is when it gets a little loopy. Yeah. I just want to be clear. You don't have to boil a lobster a lot. You take the lobster, you put it down, you take a knife, you go right in, and you pull back and then you boil.

Are you doing that? The main way to do it? I've done it. Okay, I'm done it, but do it again.

Okay, great. Do it again. It's not aesthetically pleasing, but it's more ethical.

This is a tough process. Final thoughts, guys. This is the section called final thoughts. We've reached it. Got it.

Uh, we generally prefer not to play pundit here. Who said that? Who wrote that?

No. You know what? It's my fault for not looking at this closely. This is on me. This is on me. I got lazy at the end.

We don't like to predict here. We of course play pundit. That's always what we've done the whole episode.

We're not playing pundit. We're living the only wish we were playing. The whole world's a stage.

We're living anyway. We generally do love. We like to live pundit here. Yeah. Live laugh pundit.

There's a dog named Pundit. Do pundit in the room. We try not to do too many predictions. Uh but we're going to do some uh some sort of broader picture stuff at the end here.

There's been some discussion about how anything less than winning both chambers will feel like a loss for Democrats at this point. Do you guys buy that?

Yeah. Yeah. 100%. So much so. Yeah. Expectations are Yeah. No, I'm I look I look be, you know, I play this if I try to say otherwise after uh in this environment with a president this despicable uh with an illegal war with the tariffs, with the Republican Congress rubber stamping this ridiculous, vile, lawless administration. If we can't win both chambers, then yes, that will be a loss.

Yeah. I think I like I'm not I'm not dodging it because yeah like expectations is way out of control and like Republicans will be crowing like you know forever if we don't win the Senate. Um but I really like it to me it's binary right like you it's about the consequences of winning the Senate or not or or like the consequences of not winning the Senate. Like we're we're probably going to win the House like I'm Nate's up to like 95% right and everyone can look at the old Hillary chart in 2016. It was never at 95%. Okay. So, we get the House. No more Donald Trump legislation that Democrats don't approve. So, like that part of the presidency

because he's been on a legislative tear. Yeah. Right. No more big one big beautiful bill. Right. That was terrible.

None of that Um the Senate, it really like we get the Senate, we can hold off two Supreme Court, one or two Supreme Court appointments and like dozens of other judges. And if we don't, Alto and Alto probably and maybe Thomas, then we're going to get two more justices that are like you know, Eileen Cannon or worse in their 30s for decades. So that that to me is the is the binary in the Senate.

Of course, that that's why it would not just feel like a loss, but would be a loss. But I would also like I don't I think if we can win the Senate, that is that is an incredible feat given this environment, right? And it wasn't that long ago that it looked uh if not impossible, very very difficult given the places we're talking about competing now. We're just we are the day before an election and we have a poll uh that has us up in some of the red estates in the country. Like that's remarkable. Uh I hope they're right. Um but I I also do worry we just went through this Haley Stevens news cycle. I take Federman's word that he doesn't want to switch parties. I also don't wouldn't um you know bet my life on it especially when the way we have these arguments online uh we definitely are not sort of you know uh uh uh coaxing right there's a lot of like vitriel directed at Federman these are people that are clearly very

online Haley Stevens is clearly very online I think John Federman is very online and so boy 52 seat Senate really enures against that problem

I kind of think it's also it matters which red states we win or potentially lose here uh for long term right like we have known since the Obama era that states like Iowa, Ohio, um are like just moving away from Democrats just because of the demographics long term. Like it's going to be harder and harder for Democrats to win Ohio to win uh even Michigan and Pennsylvania like as we go on if we I mean we're going to win Georgia most likely, North Carolina if we can also win Texas and then we and and Mississippi, right? like if we start doing better like that matters not just for the Senate like say let's say we lo the Senate right but we win like Texas uh and North Carolina and like that says for 28 and beyond that on the presidential level that we now can compete in some of these southern sunb belt states in a real way that we couldn't before and I think that would be like

if we if we lose Texas if we lose all like if we lose all of them at once then that's going to be terrible. Um, not for nothing, could you? Like, look, we all feel pressure. Uh, no one wants to die.

That's right. Okay. Most people, but we all want to take care of ourselves, for ourselves, for our families. Could you imagine the pressure you feel to stay alive if you're a liberal judge in the Trump administration, like on the Supreme Court,

you are like on the treadmill, get yourself in that bubble. You are crushing up Lipur and doing that guy that lives forever that talks about his his

Yeah. That you're that guy meing his son's erections. Brian Johnson. You're making me remember when RBG did that wedding or performed that wedding. Remember during co there were some of

she planking or something? Then there was that. Even remember that. Yeah. All right. Uh, next question.

I think Pundit farted by the way. I I was just going to ask you. I'm like you have her look on your face like pundit farted.

Pundit Tommy blame the dog. Uh, it probably was her. She's she's she's she's doing that a lot. What is an outcome uh anywhere on the map or the whole outcome uh that would change something you believed about politics heading into the election?

Full sweep would show the the the fever is broken completely. We got a we got Kansas, South Carolina, Mississippi for God's sake. New paradigm. Trump is over.

Yeah. Byebye. I would say that there's been this debate about uh uh Michigan and Abdul's performance in Michigan. And I think there's been these kind of very kind of like polar uh uh questions about uh will he overperform or or underperform more center-left candidates and who would be responsible if that were the case, right? There's a lot of like there's a lot of people like prescore settling on this already, which I find very annoying. It's like, hey guys, this Do you think we're not going to have time for score settling after the election?

That's all that we'll have time to do. That's what croo's about. Uh, but I do think that if if Abdul runs close to Joselyn Benson, doesn't have to get right up next to Joselyn Benson, but doesn't kind of perform I think uh far under in the way that I think a lot of more center figures are predicting. I think that would tell you a lot about um about the the left center left dynamics going into the presidential. And and I I would definitely take that. I I don't I would say that I'm like learning so much from that, but that would be a really important data point for understanding what comes next.

I think if Democrats have a bad night, um it would change my view about uh people voting with their pocketbooks. Like I can't remember an election where people have been like

economic interests. Yeah. I mean it's it's look that has obviously been disconnected from a lot of you know polarization has helped disconnect that from people's voting habits for quite a while. But this is a situation specifically where uh it's not just unemployment rates, it's inflation that has hit everyone plus the tariff, plus the gas, like all of it. And if that does not do it, then that's going to be quite a signal. Um if Democrats have a great night, I think it's also going to change my view, which is also it's started to shift a little bit about how important money is in politics because they have spent more money than God. And if the 200 million plus that they spent in just Texas alone doesn't do it, then it's going to I think it's going to tell us something about the value of uh spending a lot of money.

Well, the the next question on the outline, apologies for jumping ahead. Do it was what happens if results are worse? What's the cause? And my answers were polarization. It's just a a depressing sign that especially lower term midterm like lower turnout midterms are about the team you're on more than anything else. And then the money because if if if Elon Musk can spend half a B in half a billion dollars in these races uh and the crypto industry can spend $200 million in these races, if that money can get Ken Paxton over the finish line, the most odious human being in the worst environment imaginable, it's a reminder that elections can be bought and we're in like a very terrible post Citizens United new paradigm here.

Yeah. What about you, Lo? We if if we wake up to everyone wakes up tomorrow morning the results are worse than we expected. What happened?

So first of all fewer people voted for Democrats. Yeah. I So first of all there would be a polling error really big polling error which would once again tell you something about the electorate. And I think one thing that that would mean is that the midterm electorate actually did look more like a presidential than we realized. And it tells you something not just about polarization, but just for how people are engaging in politics because it just would mean a lot of people they're not they're not responding to pollsters. They're not showing up in a lot of the data, but they were just ready to vote and that they're going to vote every two years, not just every four years. And we do have a huge low engagement population of people voting. And then I do think it would just have to be a lot of soulsearching, not just about whether economic issues drive people, but it would be a real like I I think like

maybe as much as more than 24 which had I think uh uh uh specific indogenous explanations would require a lot of soulsearching about the failure of Democrats to be able to persuade people in an environment like this. Right.

Yeah. Here's one I think that's a little simpler and maybe more understandable for Democrats. Like, so let's say the generic ballot polling is is correct, right? Nationally, and the whole country moves to the left, it's it's plus nine, right? And the whole country moves left. That still means that just based on fundamentals, uh, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas are still R plus I think Nate has it.3 to two just on to plus two on the simple fundamentals. So a huge like the generic ballot polling was correct nationally.

The whole country moves left, we win the House, but those states are still a little more Republican and the Democratic candidate could not quite overcome that generic ballot. So that means and and that that says something too that's tough because it's like these are more moderate candidates in those states. They have basically done everything that all the smart people have said that you do to win in a red state and they just couldn't get there. Um and then Cook had an interesting in Amy Walter's final um analysis piece.

She she put this in perspective. She's like Democrats have to flip at least two seats that Donald Trump carried by double digits. Cook has five Republican held Senate seats in the toss-up column that Trump carried by more than 10 points, which is wild. No election in at least the last 16 years has seen the party in the White House lose more than one Senate seat that the president had carried by double digits. So like what we are it is kind of like a both like if Democrats do great and win the Senate, it's like historic, right? If they lose though, it will be because that just it rarely happens that the party out of power or that the president's party loses a Senate seat that they that he won by more than more than uh double digits.

Yes. And that is certainly what would be the explanation except go one step below that. Donald Trump is an extraordinary president and know I know you know that but just like hey like how did normal how did we allow as a party normal politics to prevail in an environment like that? And by the way, I wouldn't just be blaming Democrats. I think there'd be a lot of of hand ringing about Democrats. It's a societal problem that someone like Donald Trump is winning these states by 10 digits after launching an insurrection, right? Like there's a there's a real like kind of a a culture that has that has sort of allowed someone like Trump to rise. But we continue to struggle to make the case to people that he is an extraordinary threat and the people that enable him deserve to be held accountable. And that will continue to be the case when someone like JD Vance tries to run for president. uh uh uh basically denying

the version of Trump we all recognize is real. So yeah. Yeah. And I think in the opposite scenario where we wake up and everything's wonderful and maybe Annie Andrews pulls it out in South Carolina or Scott in Mississippi, right? Um then it's a whole bunch of Republicans who voted in 24 stayed home. Some of them decided to vote Democrat and a lot of these low propensity voters who either backed Trump in 24 or didn't vote uh in 24 just came out in droves because of costs, war, ICE in their communities, whatever it may be. That that that's the upside.

Yeah. And I also think that has a big impact potentially has a big impact on 28 because that tells you to Tommy's point that the bottom really has fallen out and something big is changing.

Yeah. All right. That's our show for today. Uh reminder to tune in to the live stream with Alex on the PSA YouTube channel. Um we will be back late late tonight with our reaction to the results. Hopefully we will still have this tone in our voices.

Won't be although we've been basket cases. I don't have good memories of that in the past.

Don't like elections, but we'll see. Uh keep your eye on our YouTube for any updates after that. Go vote if you haven't already. Bring your friends to vote. Votesamea.com if you need any help. and uh we'll see you on the other side. Positive America is a crooked media production. Our show is produced by Austin Fischer, Saul Rubin, McKenna Roberts, and Michael Goldmith with Reed Cherlin, Elijah Conn, and Adrien Hill. Our team includes Matt Degro, Ben Heft, Jordan Caner, Charlotte Landis, Kenny Moffett, Adam Liipper, Joseph Dutra, Desmond Taylor, Dan Ferrell, David Tols, Mia Kelman, Ryan Young, and Naomi Single. Our staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.

Questions about this episode

Who speaks in "FINAL Midterm Takes: How Bad Could It Get for Trump and Republicans?"?

J.D. Vance (Guest), John Favro (Host), John Love (Host), Tommy (Host), Alex Wagner (Host), Haley Stevens (Guest), Abdul El-Sayed (Guest), Rahm (Guest).

What is "FINAL Midterm Takes: How Bad Could It Get for Trump and Republicans?" about?

The discussion analyzes the final midterm landscape, highlighting polls showing Democrats' strong chances to retake the Senate and possibly the House, and examines the messaging Trump is using to blunt that momentum. It also note events and promotions surrounding the election, including live coverage, guest appearances, and limited-time ticket sales.

What is mentioned in this Pod Save America episode?

97 people, works and ideas are mentioned, including Democrats, Donald Trump, Abdul El-Sayed, Pod Save America, Times/Siena polls, John Favreau. Each one on this page links to its own page with every episode that mentions it.

How long is "FINAL Midterm Takes: How Bad Could It Get for Trump and Republicans?"?

The episode runs 1 h 25 min; the transcript is about 17,807 words in 264 timestamped sections.

More from Pod Save America

About this transcript: the episode's spoken words as captioned on YouTube, split into timestamped sections. Reclip.Me locates every person, work and idea in the text, keeps the time it is first named, and quotes the words around it verbatim. Last updated November 5, 2026.