Top Trump Official EMBARRASSED BADLY In HUMILIATING Interview

What this episode is about

The discussion focuses on the political fallout from recent events, including Donald Trump's controversial stance on violence in response to protests, his aggressive rhetoric towards international relations, and the escalating tensions with the Federal Reserve over monetary policy. Key points include an investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell sparked by Trump's dissatisfaction with interest rates, highlighting the administration's broader pattern of targeting dissent within financial institutions.

Key takeaways

• When the government sends agents to combat protests, it’s a masterclass in misdirected violence—don’t shoot the messenger.
• Trump's pondering military action in Iran feels like a world leader playing Risk with real lives at stake—game on?
• Investigating Powell for alleged lies about renovations showcases the administration’s warped priorities—watch out for marble countertops!
• Former Fed chairs say rule of law is key—reinforcing that even economic watchdogs aren’t above political whimsy.
• Powell pushing back shows bureaucratic backbone—will the Fed defend its independence or bend to Trump's pressure cooker?

Who speaks in this episode?

• John Favreau (Host) · 33 min speaking
• Tommy Vietor (Host) · 25 min speaking
• Lel Brainard (Guest) · 17 min speaking

What is discussed, and when

1. 0:00 – 10:00: Janine Piro, Leil Brainard
2. 10:00 – 20:00: Janine Piro
3. 40:00 – 50:00: Strawberry.me
4. 1:00:00 – 1:10:00: Leil Brainard

Notable quotes from "Top Trump Official EMBARRASSED BADLY In HUMILIATING Interview"

• Let's start there. The news broke Sunday night that former Fox personality Janine Piro approved the investigation into Powell, which is supposedly related to his congressional…

  about Janine Piro · at 0:41

Who and what is mentioned in this episode?

People

• Janine Piro — Person · 4 mentions · first at 0:45
• Leil Brainard — Person · 3 mentions · first at 0:30
  Then former Federal Reserve vice chair Lel Brainard stops by to talk to Tommy about Trump's DOJ launching a phony criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell because the president doesn't care for his monetary policy. So.

Companies & orgs

• US Federal Reserve — Company · 10 mentions
• ICE — Company · 6 mentions
• Strawberry.me — Company · 2 mentions · first at 44:35

Full transcript with timestamps

0:00 Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm John Favro. I'm John Love it. I'm Tom Vtor. On today's show, the government is responding to the killing of Renee Good by sending more agents to commit more violence against the people of Minnesota as protests break out all across the country. Donald Trump says he's pondering military strikes against the Iranian regime as the anti-government demonstrations there heat up. Meanwhile, Trump has declared himself the acting president of Venezuela and said that he's going to take Greenland whether they like it or not.

0:28 Then former Federal Reserve vice chair Lel Brainard stops by to talk to Tommy about Trump's DOJ launching a phony criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell because the president doesn't care for his monetary policy. So uh let's start there. The news broke Sunday night that uh former Fox personality Janine Piro approved the investigation into Powell, which is supposedly related to his congressional testimony last summer about the ongoing renovations at the Federal Reserve headquarters, which are over budget. And we know how seriously this administration takes spending too much on renovations to federal buildings. So maybe we shouldn't be too surprised.

1:08 Trump has been publicly attacking and threatening Powell for a year now, including with termination and legal action, for not bringing down interest rates fast enough. Powell had mostly turned the other cheek. But almost immediately after the news broke on Sunday, the Federal Reserve posted a two-minute video statement from Powell where no punches were pulled. No one, certainly not the chair of the Federal Reserve, is above the law. But this unprecedented action should be seen in the broader context of the administration's threats and ongoing pressure. The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public rather than following the preferences of the president.

1:51 This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation. Public service sometimes requires standing firm in the face of threats. Asked about the investigation later on Sunday night, Trump told NBC News, quote, I don't know anything about it, but he's certainly not very good at the Fed and he's not very good at building buildings. He's not good at Fed. He's not good at Fed.

2:20 He's not good at On Monday morning, every living former Fed chair and a bunch of former Treasury and White House leaders put out a joint statement saying that the investigation quote has no place in the United States whose greatest strength is the rule of law. Used to be uh which is the foundation of our economic success. All right. Uh thoughts on the substance of the investigation and Powell's reaction to it? Well, first of all, in terms of the substance, this is not not as if the administration did a press conference and said, "Here's what we're investigating." We're learning about this in a pretty strange way. Like, apparently, this began in November. Uh Powell apparently was already aware of some sort of grand jury uh investigation uh when they're now Bessant is now uh there's now reports of Bessant being peeved about this and telling that to Trump. So the whole thing whole thing is

3:08 like sort of convoluted and strange like we're learning about it through news reports but as far as we can tell they're saying that uh uh Powell uh lied to Congress when he was asked about the renovations uh and I apparently did so said like you know look am I the chair of the Fed. Do I have great responsibilities? Yes. that I'm going to uh commit a a a crime in front of Congress to dissemble about a VIP dining room at a specific federal building uh and put my entire career at risk to to protect my my designs for a nicer marble countertop in my in my office. That's sort of I think the claim basically.

3:46 Well, yeah. Initially, they accused him of violating the National Capital Planning Act uh because they didn't get approval for some of these changes because again, we know Trump cares deeply about federal permitting uh when he changes buildings. But then in June, Pal did this testimony in front of the Senate Banking Committee and he denied that there was a VIP dining room or new Marple or whatever. And they the Trump administration had clearly laid down this narrative in the New York Post because they had a big story about it.

4:09 And so now they're investigating him for lying to Congress. And so what what I liked about Pal's response is um he like just didn't talk about any of that. He was just like, "No, this is about Trump is mad that I won't c cut interest rates more quickly because he thinks it'll juice the economy in the short term and that's all he cares about." Or more likely, he wants to do something that'll juice the stock market and he wants to make his rich friends richer and he wants to make his real estate buddies richer. Um, so I'm glad he's pushing back. I'm glad he's being honest. I tried this with La. My free advice for Jerome Powell was tell Trump that if he doesn't back off, he's going to triple interest rates like fire with fire. She didn't like that idea. I I had the same reaction, Tommy, that I was like, you know what, by giving the statement that he did, Powell instantly made the story about

4:53 Trump's political prosecutions and the motivation behind them as opposed to, you know, what a lot of bureaucrats would do and probably have done when faced with a threats and intimidation from Trump, which is like calmly refuting each detail of the allegation, which would have made it about that, you know, did he do this, did he do that? I mean, it seems pretty simple when he was talking to Congress about this. The original plans had some of the stuff, the more exorbitant renovations that they had submitted, and then Powell said, "Yeah, but since then, uh, we either those plans either like fell out or I stopped them or whatever else."

5:25 Yeah. Every contractor gives you a plan with too much in it. You got to go through and get the get the budget down. The Yeah, the the this one's like it's so ridiculous on its face. It's not that different. I think this is more ridiculous than the Comey one, right? But really what they're doing is when one of their enemies has at some point testified before before Congress, they're like, "Oh, let's go through that, find something we can claim is untrue and then claim uh it was someone lying to Congress as a pretense for an investigation and and and

5:50 per lying to Congress and and second home mortgages. That's the that's the bread and butter of the uh criminal investigations uh that DOJ is conducting right now,

6:01 basically. Good for Powell, though. Like I you know what? More people should stand up to Trump like that. It's like good for and he's the Federal Reserve and he's supposed to you know Federal Reserve chairman you're you don't get into politics. Most Federal Reserve chairman do not get into politics at all. Try very hard to be apolitical. Even Powell we all remember when he was standing with Trump to

6:20 they tour the building and the renovations. Well that's when he brought it up the first time like Trump has been on this for a while.

6:25 It's been this has been his little like pressure play. And admittedly look is a $2.5 billion renovation absurd. Yes. But I mean I don't know that's clearly not what this is about. Yeah. Uh Powell's term ends in May, at which point Trump will get to name a new Fed chair, uh who will still have to be confirmed by the Senate. Powell also has the option of staying on the board as a Fed governor through 2028, uh which you have to imagine this might make him more likely to do. Why do you guys think Trump would do this right now?

6:53 It seems similar to the Lisa Cook thing. He's just trying to fire, he wants to fire him for cause and just get the slot. He assumes Powell would stay and he wants to have more play more more openings to a point, right? Is it

7:03 more complicated than that? Probably not. I mean, I I do think that there's a piece of this that that Trump's real passion is just punishing his enemies and he doesn't care if it's strategic or not because you're like, and the method to the madness could be, okay, make life hell for this guy, make him quit before uh his term is up in January of 2028 when he will no longer be a governor. Um, but you'd still have to replace him with someone. They'd have to get confirmed by the Senate. So, I I don't know. It's hard to tell. like it does remind me he's he's been attacking the president of Colombia uh the country not the college and it's a similar situation he has done both yeah I'm referencing the country not the college um but it again it makes no sense cuz like pro's term is up in early August um the first round of their elections is in May so it's like why why are you messing with this guy he's going to be gone soon

7:47 it's like well uh I like to you know like this guy this guy messed with me so I'm going to bludge in him and I don't care if you know I'm making his political standing stronger in the near term or making his political party more likely to win the elections. I like to punch people that make me mad.

8:01 And the ancillary benefit is uh if there is a debate about rates between now and the end of his term, uh maybe he feels a little bit more nervous about not doing what Donald Trump wants. Maybe he leaves early because 28 is after the midterm. You know, it's a while away. There's a lot of angles.

8:14 I think Donald Trump has miscalculated. I think this is a uh I think this is going to blow up in his face and already is. Um, there's also we should talk about there's there's some back and forth about how this happened and whether Trump was involved. So, Axios has an administration official saying uh Janine Piro quote went rogue. Uh, another said that another said Trump heard about the investigation after the fact, but that Piro wouldn't have gone forward without a signal that he'd be supportive. That sounds more like uh more like Trump. Um, Politico, they have a different story. They have a bunch of administration sources blaming Bill Py uh the mortgage fraud uh ZAR uh who reportedly recently pitched Trump on firing Powell and actually brought um wanted posters of the Fed chair to his meeting with Trump and apparently it was just at Mara Lago recently that he met with Trump. Um and then PY was asked

9:08 about this this today and he was like I have no idea. I have nothing to do with this. It's DOJ. And so they're all basically going back and forth blaming each other and trying to keep Trump out of it, which here's the thing, they're all liars all the time, but I think it goes to show that they are, it doesn't seem like many people in the administration are all that happy about this.

9:28 So whether it was Janine Piro just taking the hint from Trump and by the way from Trump allies in Congress who who have uh referred him uh referred Powell uh to DOJ for an investigation over this or you know or she they had a conversation. Who knows? There's a simple way to prove that that Donald Trump doesn't think is a good idea. Fire Janine Piro for doing what is obviously a misuse of her of her job. This is ridiculous. Can't politicize the Fed. She's fired. We'll put in somebody better. Of course, that's not what's going to happen. So, whatever the actual uh uh path to this, like Donald Trump wants this, they're doing Donald Trump's bidding.

10:01 Yeah. The only reason it's worthwhile is because they are um they don't see this as a polit I don't think they see this as a political winner right now. And and this is partly why um Republicans Tom Tillis and Lisa Marowsky have already said they will not vote for any of Trump's Fed nominees until this gets resolved. Uh Tillis also said it's now the credibility and independence of the Justice Department, not the Fed, that's in question. Mowski even said that the Justice Department should be investigated by Congress. Uh it really doesn't take both of them to kill a nomination at this point because Tillis is on the banking committee and the split is 1311. And so if he's a no, 1212 does not get the nominee out of committee. So Tillis can single-handedly block um a Trump nominee for new Fed chair. So already Trump has uh this is blowing up in his face. Uh other Republicans in the House and Senate have

10:52 also spoken out about the investigation. Um spoken out against the investigation, sorry. And Axio reported that a source familiar with Scott Besson's call to Donald Trump about the issue said that that the Treasury Secretary let the president know he isn't happy and that the investigation quote made a mess that could be bad for financial markets.

11:09 Yeah, you know, Scott Besson is taking a lot of calls from the CEOs of various banks today and he is trying to distance himself from this.

11:18 And added bonus, maybe it's an opportunity to shiv Bill Py if you remember his enemy. His enemy from the podcast birthday party.

11:24 I think you sh them once before with his elbow. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. So, uh what

11:28 fighter that guy? Um I don't know. You guys think the mini mini rebellion here will have staying power or what?

11:33 I mean, uh Thumb Phillis, a lot of H's in that name. Uh his term ends January 3rd, 2027, so he can make trouble for a while. But Marcowsky won re-election in 2022. So, she's not in presumably will run again in 28. So, if she really sticks to this and like they decide to use their power, it could create real problems for Trump in terms of filling a vacancy here. Um, like just quickly on this, did did Trump know about this thing? I don't believe for a second he didn't know. Like think of the number of times you've heard him get asked a question about something major and controversial and he's like, I don't know anything about that. Right? Like the pardoning of Juan Orlando Hernandez.

12:07 He's been asked about it three or four times now. The narco criminal former president of Honduras that he pardoned, he still acts like he didn't know. There's never a followup from the reporter that's like, "Shouldn't you know who you're pardoning?" Um, but whatever. So, I think he likes to float things and then he'll blame, you know, Jannine Piro, whoever else if it goes poorly. But

12:25 also, if he met with Bill Py recently at Mara Lago and Bill Py brought with him a wanted poster of Jerome Powell.

12:33 Hopefully, there's a photo. The the two of them could have had a nice conversation at Mara Lago where that was the that was it. That was the conversation and maybe he didn't run it through the chain uh of the administration officials. Um but uh I don't know. I just it does seem like uh it does seem like this is going to have staying power. Also, again, if Powell decides to stay on now, then Trump has to name Trump's going to have to name a new Fed chair from the current board of governors because there's not going to be uh or there I guess there'll be one vacancy. He won't get two vacancies right now. He could get two vacancies next year, but if if Powell stays, that's one less vacancy that he that he can fill. and the Fed chair nomination is now going to be uh you know that that person is going to have to really prove their independence from Donald Trump because Tom Tillis and Lisa Marowsky and

13:23 now a bunch of other Senate Republicans are pretty pretty worried about this. Yeah. And he's, you know, talked about appointing one of his various sort of local goons into that role, right? Does he still want to do that? Is that we're going to go through the song and dance of of some Trump adviser pretending that they're going to be independent? Like, you know, we we talked about this earlier today that like the cycle of Donald Trump threatening something that if carried out uh could lead to an economic crisis, double-digit inflation, massive unemployment, just like huge degradation to the economy, incredibly dangerous, like just sort of striking at the foundations of of how our our system works. But the markets don't react. Why?

13:59 Well, because they think cooler heads are going to prevail. They think the the the Marowskis and the Bessants are going to are going to win at the end of the day. But what who he picks to be Fed chair and if that person gets through the Senate, if they take fake assurances, well, we'll we'll be there.

14:15 Yeah. How big of a deal do you guys think Democrats should make out of this? Does it does fit with the affordability message?

14:21 Yeah. I mean, I it's objectively a huge deal. I don't know that voters necessarily know much about the Fed or its independents. I think to the extent we talk about it, it's like this is about Trump trying to help out special interests. Like this is Trump wanting a rate cut for Wall Street and his real estate buddies um who want rates to come down so they get richer even if you have to deal with more inflation forever, right? Like that is the mission of the Fed. So like I was I I wouldn't get down like bogged down with the renovation stuff obviously except to be like well you know this guy's ripping down the east wing or whatever taking bribes from uh billionaire buddies to build a ballroom. Um, but I do think like the reason this has some staying power is Republicans are getting calls from rich donors on Wall Street. And I do think the market's not reacting because of the the same taco phenomenon, right? They

15:04 probably think he's going to cave just like he did with China. Or maybe they they quietly, you know, don't hate the idea of going back to zero interest rates because that makes the market rip. Um,

15:14 especially the tech goons. Yeah. I mean, you're starting to see these interesting

15:17 they love they love a low a low interest rate. It's the best thing for them. that there you're starting to see some articles from Wall Street analysts about how uh like the jobless boom like jobless like because companies are doing well they're like kind of pocketing efficiency from layoffs after COVID and also after from AI um and so they're making more money but uh there aren't any jobs so it's sort of bad politically but it's helping Wall Street

15:42 I think an easy way too is and Jason Ferman um mentioned this in uh one of his tweets about this which is like there's a list of countries where the independence of the Fed was demolished by uh a leader of the country who just wanted to use it for their own political purposes and uh didn't go well for any of their economies.

16:00 Le and I talk about this specifically. Yeah. Yeah. Donald Trump is threatening something that could cause doubledigit inflation. Some of the worst inflation countries have experienced around the world has happened after they've politicized their central banks. And I think the kind of people that would say uh uh that they might like low interest rates, but threatening the independence of the central bank is incredibly dangerous are the kind of validators that reach out beyond like normal political validators. The kind of people that are like on CNBC that are in like like economics and and like financial advice podcasts that will talk about how dangerous and stupid this is. And I like I do think that will matter. I do think that that reaches people that Donald Trump is like a chaos agent and this is dangerous.

16:39 And this is what Nixon did in the 70s and it was a disaster. So, there's a an example here, too.

16:44 Yeah. Vulkar is rolling over in his giant coffin. He is dead, right? He's got to be.

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19:46 their own subjective analysis of various social media videos uh which has now been contradicted by media outlets, former and current law enforcement officials and people who have eyes and ears. Over the weekend, protests broke out in Minnesota and all across the country. And on Sunday, the administration continued to defend the killing with a mix of obvious lies and non-answers, like Christine M did in this viral exchange with Jake Tapper when he asked why the administration treated the January 6th rier attacks on law enforcement so differently. Let's watch. Those are law enforcement officers being physically attacked. By this standard, would any of those officers being justified in shooting and killing the people causing them physical harm? every single situation is going to um rely on the situation those officers are on.

20:32 President Trump pardoned every single one of those people and every single one of these investigations comes in the full context of the situation on the ground. And that's one thing that President Trump has been so focused on is making sure that when we're out there, we don't pick and choose uh which situations are in which laws are enforced.

20:49 I just showed you video of people attacking law enforcement officers. undisputed proof, undisputed evidence, and I just said President Trump pardoned all of them. And you said that President Trump is enforcing all the laws equally. It's just not true. There's a different standard for law enforcement officials being attacked if they're being attacked by Trump supporters. We just saw that

21:13 this individual and these in instances and these investigations all have to be taken and done and done correctly in context of every situation that is happening on the ground. robot just just repeating the word situation 10 times that makes no sense in the way she used it in any of those sentences

21:33 just it was you know we spent a lot of time on the ways Gnome is uh kind of defending the indefensible she's also just like in over her head not up to this

21:43 she's a yeah she's just not a not like clearly just not prepared for how to address any of this there is no way to defend what they're doing or how to make that there's no out of that uh question, but you just see she's just a deer in headlights.

21:55 Every situation is dependent on the situation that the officers are in. It's hard to disagree with that.

22:03 No. Uh three It's so It's so dark. The three of us haven't really had a chance to talk about all this since uh since Good was killed. What's your reaction been to the Trump administration's response uh especially over the last few days and over the weekend? I I mean, I just keep feeling like this is literally the kind of thing you'd expect from Vladimir Putin or Bashar al-Assad or the Iranian regime, which is like a an officer of the state kills a protester by shooting her in the face three times at point blank range and officials at the highest level of government call her a terrorist or a deranged lunatic and they view it entirely through the prism of like, are you on our side or are you not on our side? And so I just like it's so chilling. It should be chilling to every US citizen, especially all the people uh the MAGATypes who put like don't tread on me flags in their social media avatars and said that you know Joe

22:54 Biden making you wear a mask was made him stalin. Um good for Jake in that clip for calling Christine Nome out like that the hypocrisy is so glaring. Um January 6 by the way was just a clear-cut example of terrorism. It was people using violence to advance a a political end. But like you know

23:09 I didn't happen upon it after dropping off their kids at school. Exactly. And and you know, the White House website now includes a section that about January 6th that says Ashley Babbot was quote murdered in cold blood, that she posed no threat despite the fact that she broke into the capital and then tried to climb through a window to get into the speaker's lobby. Um, so like I'm not an expert on on law enforcement procedure. Um, but we've all now read like a million, you know, former ICE member uh ICE officers or cops talking about what this uh individual did in this uh in the case of uh Renee Good. And like this guy, this ICE officer clearly screwed up. He never should have stepped in front of her car.

23:45 He never should have shot her in the face three times when clearly he could get out of the way and avoid getting hit by her car because she was not trying to hit him as we all saw from the video. And I think mostly I've been just disgusted by the total lack of humanity or empathy from elected officials who could have all just said, "A woman died. She's an American. It's a tragedy. Let's investigate." before commenting further. But they did the opposite. And you can see how it's emboldening other ICE officers because there's videos all over social media of them beating up people, beating up Americans, detaining Americans, uh threatening people who film them or otherwise observe them and then saying things like, "Didn't you learn your lesson? Didn't you learn your lesson last week, like talking about the Renee Good shooting?" So,

24:25 I've seen two videos where they say that now. Yes. It's very chilling stuff. Yeah. Look, I was thinking about this over the weekend, which is sort of why why is this important? Why is this one incident important? If the officer had been justified uh in the moment in shooting Renee Good, it wouldn't make their crackdown any less extreme and uh uh uh egregious and and beyond what is required, it wouldn't make their immigration policies any less heinous. And had they just said, "We don't believe anyone should be killed uh uh simply driving their kids home from school and whatever the specifics of this case, we're going to investigate, but we want everybody to feel safe." and you have a right to protest and to write right to know that our agents are going to enforce the law faithfully, right? It would actually have been a less important in less important incident, right? But that's not what they did.

25:15 They decided to defend it. And in defending it, by the way, they've been forced to def because they can't admit error and that's part of their sort of effort to dominate. They have to continue to defend using words like domestic terrorist that they that they use from before they had any information. If you go back to Christine Nome's first statement when she had the cowboy hat on, uh what she said is just has absolutely no bearing, no relevance, no no connection to what actually took place in the moment, but they have to keep it up and keep defending it and keep saying it, right? And so they've just like they are radicalizing each other. They are radicalizing these people on the streets. And by the way, they are radicalizing people in Minnesota uh who are are feeling threatened and unsafe in their own communities. the administration uh leaked a video and then they amplified a video where after the ICE agent uh shot

26:03 Renee Good in the head three times, you hear an ICE agent say, "Fucking bitch."

26:07 Yeah. And and Jake asked uh uh Christine Gnome about that and there's just nothing to say.

26:11 She she basically like smirked. She said, "I don't know, sir." And they seem to think that was helpful for them, helpful to their case.

26:17 Yeah. Which is stunning. Okay, JD Vance. Well, it's telling. I mean, Trump administration has responded to the unrest by doubling down. They're sending quote hundreds more federal officers to Minneapolis. Those sources told CNN that around a thousand border patrol agents are expected to be deployed to the region. They also instituted a new policy limiting congressional access to ICE facilities a day after the shooting. Uh there's a law that allows Congress to do this, but they are changing the policy anyway. Uh meanwhile, local and state officials are asking the public to submit videos, eyewitness accounts, and photos of the incident in order to gather evidence after federal authorities, including the FBI, shut them out of the investigation despite initially agreeing to cooperate. Do you guys think the administration just doesn't see this as a political problem for them, doesn't care, or actually sees

27:08 doubling down as politically beneficial in some way? I think the lying like the amount of lying and dissembling they're doing about this. Uh it does suggest like they are they know that the facts are bad for them. They're trying to tell a story about it that's less politically damaging. But behind all their bluster, like these are not these are not images that like this still America and we have a a suspicion of uh of of of police states of too aggressive law enforcement of of infringements on our basic liberties and what it's what it what it should feel like to live in an American city and and and that continues to be true and they know that. They know that. So I do think the lying is a sign that they view this as a risk.

27:49 Yeah. I I can see it a few different ways. Like I think if we if we really think they're thinking about this politically, like their primary political frame of reference is often strength versus weakness. So not backing down would fit into that. And also they think like nivism, anti-immigrant, anti-Somali rhetoric is beneficial for them or or making that the focus of the debate is beneficial for them. And we also know that racism and xenophobia, xenophobia are Steven Miller's passion and the reason he is here. Uh, and he's surrounded by by like white nationalists throughout the government who are who are advancing that project, too. So, Miller seems like the most powerful person in the White House besides Donald Trump. Um, he is never going to back down. I don't think any amount of data will convince him that he's taking the wrong course either on the merits or politically because he went from random

28:37 racist Hill staffer to, you know, someone called him the prime minister of the White House. Um,

28:42 Steve Bannon or at least the intellectual force behind the Trump project. Yeah. Um, I think the darkest version that might be the most accurate is that Trump doesn't care about the politics and he likes violence. Like, he likes uh violence against political opponents. It's more than just tolerating it. Like, he told people at rallies that he'd pay their legal bills if they beat up protesters. He sked the January 6th mob on the capital. He's hold he's hosting an ultimate fighting event at the White House. Um, he just loves this stuff. And so, I I just everything you see from him, he just doesn't seem like he cares at all that someone was killed.

29:14 Yeah. I mean, if you think about their their their goals, right, one goal is to um increase deportations by a lot, and they're clearly having trouble doing that because um it's hard. They think, first of all, they think that there's like tens of millions of more undocumented immigrants in this country than there are. And also they see as targets people who aren't just undocumented but like legal residents with visas or temporary protect protective status or here on parole or anything else. And so finding all those people is difficult. And so there is a hope for self-deportations. And so what do you need to do? What do you need to do to get people to self- deepport? you need to instill fear that you're gonna, you know, you also need an excuse to send even more uh federal agents to places like Minneapolis um to just start stopping everyone and checking everyone, setting up checkpoints, which they are

30:08 also doing. And then the other thing you don't want is you don't want people to film what you're doing. You don't want eyewitnesses. You don't want protesters because then the country is going to be alerted to what you're doing. And so you want to delegitimize protest and stop the protest from happening. and by dragging protesters by killing protesters by not that I'm saying that the the killing was intentional u part of some plan but if there's violence against protesters then maybe it sends a message which is what those ICE agents were saying to some of those people like didn't didn't you learn a lesson and I do think they want to kind of focus on one incident and do all the freeze frames and all that kind of stuff when I really would encourage everyone to watch a lot of the videos from over the weekend in Minneapolis and love it and I did um a YouTube reaction on Monday to some of these videos, but the clips are

30:55 all over social media. And you know, you see uh they're going up to people in random parking lots who are charging their electric vehicles and just asking them. They're demanding papers. They're um you know, they rammed into a car. They like literally hit a car, demanded papers from the driver, and then when a bunch of people showed up, they sped away. You know, they're they're dragging protesters out of cars and beating them. It's just it's taken each individual incident is enraging and and and you know deep injustices being committed but when you see them all together it's it's nuts.

31:30 It's also it is the first. So this week Homeland Security has been celebrating that they were able to double the number of agents in ICE in a year. Now, it was only a few months ago that ICE officials were saying it takes 18 months to recruit, train, and and and deploy somebody. Yet, in a year, they've doubled it. So, there's a lot of people on the streets that just weren't in ICE before that have been recruited as part of this program. And by the way, a lot of the people that are part of these uh deployments, even if they've been in ICE for a long time, it didn't look like this before, right? And by the way, we're also losing the distinction between Border Patrol, which has a different mission, but is now being kind of co-opted and used as part of one kind of amorphous single mission in these things led by Dan uh Greg Bino say and in many cases are much worse than ICE.

32:18 Yes. Uh but I I do think like the doubling of ICE, you know, we're in Los Angeles. They've done, you know, uh surges into Los Angeles. They've, you know, uh uh tried to instill fear in Los Angeles. It's a giant place. This is the first time they've gone to a city with the numbers. There are what, two times, three times now, as many ICE agents and border patrol agents in Minneapolis as there are police officers in this city. This is the first time they've done it at a scale where it is like it is something that is being felt across the city in a big way. And that I do think is like fundamentally different than what they've done before. And

32:53 I think Chicago is pretty Chicago is a big city too, but I think the force there was massive.

32:58 Yes. But this is a huge number of people that are you you hear it from people that you know in Minneapolis. You hear it from people that are just saying they're from like this is the how it feels on the ground is that this is everywhere. And you have a bunch of people that are radicalized that are angry that feel under threat that feel uh have been trained by their superior or or to sort of instilled in by their superiors to be afraid of the community to be worried about what they're seeing to feel isolated like pilgrims in an unholy land and it's just a powder keg.

33:24 is incredibly dangerous. And ICE is not recruiting the best and the brightest from the United States. I mean, these people are barely trained. Like they're lowering standards. These are people that are are not looking to deescalate, who are not acting professionally, who are, you know, chanting like MAGA slogans at people, who are threatening uh random protesters or people simply observing them, who don't seem to know the rules or the rights of the individuals that they're yelling at or maybe don't care, who don't like they're going to win uh don't look like they're going to win the road race against the fleeing suspect, if we're being honest. like these people are just like are these ICE these new ICE recruits um look like idiots and they're not effective and they seem pretty dangerous and I I like to your point I think there is a counterpoint which I think Stephen Miller and Trump want protests because they want clashes

34:11 like I think personally that's my view on well and also I mean the we've the Renee Good video is you know he he got in front of the vehicle and she was driving away but like you get enough protests and you get enough ICE agents some protester is going to do something stupid, right? And they are going to be at fault for start like starting the violence, right? Like that's just just the law of averages, right? And they're betting they're very excited for when that happens, the Trump administration, because then they can point to someone and see that's a bad person. That person was doing this. I

34:41 I just like the, you know, Trump's thing is like, look, you don't have to like me, but look how tough I am, right? IM immigration enforcement is ugly and look at these crazy people trying to stop me, but this is what you elected me to do. like that whatever that is the kind of lens to see that through and no like even if these things are in the in and of themselves sing like unpopular on their own. You say you have this as one set of images plus all these sort of the the claims of all the things they're trying to do on the economy the kind of populous things they're trying to h do on the economy and then you put those things together and that like I'm really tough even on that looks ugly.

35:13 Here's this thing I'm doing over here. I think that's like the story they're trying to tell.

35:17 The Times interviewed the current Minneapolis police chief today on the on the daily. It's really good. I people should listen.

35:22 Great episode, really worth your time listening to. And it's just, you know, he talks about how much time they have spent trying to dig out of the hole left by 2020 and the George Floyd protest and the lack of trust between local law enforcement and the population. Um, and he just he feels like what ICE is doing in the subsequent protests and tensions are going to completely unravel like five or six years of work. And so there's just a real question of like Donald Trump is selling this is making us safer, but the the police chief of the city where this enforcement act uh operation is happening is saying it's making the entire population less safe and he's scared that it could light the place on fire and no one's listening to him.

35:59 It was also striking how um when asked about the actual situation with Renee Good and what the ICE officers did, he was like it was so matterof fact and obvious from him. He was like, "You never stand in front of a vehicle. you never put yourself in the position like that ICE agent did. You know, it's just it's like an obvious thing.

36:16 Y um so, uh Democrats are now in the situation where there's a funding bill. We got another government funding headline uh deadline and a number of senators uh have said, you know, they don't want to fund DHS budget um with ICE like this, especially an increase for ICE after ICE got more funding already um without some new restrictions on ICE. Chris Murphy um has already is is preparing to propose a bunch of reforms for the agency. Obviously, we've been down this road before. like it's very hard to get something done. Even if there were enough votes to shut the government down, we've seen how much the Trump administration cares about this.

36:57 Shutting the government down would not necessarily stop any of these enforcement operations. Uh they still have plenty of money that they got from the big beautiful bill. So I don't see that it some is happening. But um you know, it's worth pointing out that yukgov poll conducted the same day that Renee Good was killed found that Americans overall are turning against ICE. Plurality support the protests. We'll wait to see a bunch of other polling. It's still early, but how do you think Democrats should handle dealing with this issue?

37:24 So, Fox News asked Benny Thompson whether Congress should use appropriations to rain in ice, and he said that it's above my pay grade. Uh he's the chair of the he's the ranking member on Homeland Security, so it felt like seems like it's sort of right smack in the middle of his pay grade. He's getting paid the right amount to answer that question. So, I think the Murphy answers have been better. And it is also, by the way, complicated. I part of this is there's still the Obamacare funding fight that's ongoing. There's a bunch of other bills and funding bills.

37:49 They're trying to do actual normal appropriations. One of them is for the Justice Department. I think we're kind of watching the full politicization of the Justice Department. It seems as though that would be a place you might want to think about some reforms about how this like kind of rogue uh uh Department of Justice is operating. But put that aside. We're heading towards January 30th. There's either going to be a standalone Homeland Security funding bill. I do not understand how anybody could get behind funding this agency right now given that Gnome is kind of out of control, ICE is out of control, Bavino is out of control, like you're going to just put more money in this that that you're going to vote to fund but what is acting like kind of like Trump's p like state police? That seems insane to me. And then you end up talking about what happens on January 30th if you funded most or some of the

38:37 government but haven't done Department of Homeland Security. And I agree like it's complicated, right? like, well, they'll still be able to do certain things and and they'll actually be able to move money around, but before you even get to the kind of political and kind of strategic machinations, what are the reforms that you think are necessary right now that you would want to have uh on uh a funding bill for ICE, for border patrol, even knowing that Donald Trump is president, Republicans control Congress, is only so much you get. What do those look like? And how far are you willing to go to fight for those?

39:06 Because I before we get to kind of answering our own threat with how it might not work and it and that the challenges of a shutdown, I do think it's worth saying like what would we actually think is the right thing to do in this moment and before and if that requires talking through a shutdown, I think that that's worth doing because this is we are we are kind of we keep going like up the escalatory ladder every single time. The next deployment will be worse. The one after that will be worse. And I I I don't know how, look, if I were in Congress, I do not know how I could vote uh to fund this Department of Homeland Security regardless of of the political implications. I I just don't

39:41 You probably wouldn't have to. And uh I wouldn't vote for it either. And then someone some Democrats are going to have to walk the plank and actually vote for it, you know? Like I bet most of them won't vote for it, but it's just going to be just like LA. Look, I'm I was way out there on this and saying like don't don't fund the government last time. Make it over ICE. Make it over immigration. And then watching what happened and watching how the administration just doesn't care and is not going to accept any restrictions whatsoever. I'm like, yeah, they they should talk about it all the time. They should push this issue. They should not be politically fearful of this issue, but I do think we should just be um our expectations of what they might be able to do should be in check.

40:17 Yeah. Yeah, I mean I I agree with I'd like to know what the reforms are, but I there was this sort of sentiment in the wake of the the Renee Good shooting that the video had become a political rose roar stack test and that everyone who saw it only viewed it through a partisan lens. I just don't think that's true. Like I think that's just like a broken like that's that's how Twitter has broken all of us because you know there's a bunch of people that respond in ghoulish ways and make everything partisan and the algorithm rewards it and that's all that we see. I bet you that 95% of the country sees that video and thinks, "Oh my god, that is horrifying. That is a tragedy." You know, like, I can't believe that happened to this woman who doesn't look like a domestic terrorist, Christine Nome. And so, if you could use this funding debate to talk about reasonable reforms, I think you can make the

41:03 argument. I think you you might be able to convince the voting population. I don't think you can convince MAGA or Donald Trump, but you could you could have a conversation or make a political fight in a way that I think would be beneficial.

41:13 I I definitely agree with that. Yeah. But the lesson of the last year or so is to make these fights salient, you have to actually you have to be willing to push for the shutdown. You have to you have to raise the stakes on it because that's why we ended up we're h we're going to have an Obamacare vote uh because they shut down the government. By the way, we were we've talked about this a million times like making that fight about healthcare I think was more successful than a lot of people, myself included, thought it would be. We're watching a a paramilitary group, poorly trained, itchy and twitchy on the streets of a city, like terrorizing people. There's no consequences. There's no government response to half of these incidents. We're now back. We're the because of the decimation of local news, uh the the the the media more broadly.

41:56 We are now just parsing through videos one at a time, hoping they're reliable because there's so little reliable information about what the government is doing and we can't trust what they're saying. are so far down this path and to the like the idea that the Democrats in the Senate are going to that there's going to be whatever you know 10 of them nine of them that are going to willing to go along with this just like come on at least at least lay down a marker for what you want to see in it make a threat that you think you can stand by and see if we can have like at least a debate about what restrictions or some some guard rails could look like even if it's not enough I don't know

42:29 do you have ideas on guardrails I yeah I don't know I don't know I would like I would like to see what Chris Murphy's cooking up. One thing is we have border patrol. It's supposed to operate within 100 miles of the border. That already includes most of the US population. Minneapolis is not within 100 miles of the border. And there's there's legal reasons they're allowed to operate in that way. But but actually disentangling what border controls job is, what ICE control's job, that's great. What happens in the event of an inc? What happens when you arrest American a citizen? What's documented?

42:57 What's not? Why are these guys holding up phones but not wearing body cams? Right? Like there are a lot of simple things you could start to masks. get the masks off. There was a great actually

43:07 the the CPB stuff is uh CBP stuff is like they're counting the Great Lakes as uh as the border and so that's how they're willing that's how they were operated in Chicago. And it's so

43:19 But but the the there was a to you know, look, I know I know it's uh it's, you know, Tony uh Dopals in the barrel. Uh but from inside the barrel, he did an interview both with Border Patrol, but all with or someone a spokesperson for for DHS, I'm not sure who, uh talking about why they're wearing ICE, and then some protesters about why they thought it was ridiculous and and watching these sort of protesters saying, "Our faces are out here. We're at risk of getting doxed. You're a you're a public official. You're serving the country. Of course, you you should be put your face in front of the public. It's so obvious that that's something that we should sort of put in a reform.

43:49 I also think that just more more people more prominent people who have been quiet up until now for the last year and maybe were less quiet in the first Trump term like it's time to speak up. And they could tell themselves that like well it doesn't matter and you know the more people who are seen as elites that speak up the worse it is. But I do think we're in a situation where um being quiet about this stuff uh like like speaking up is not going to necessarily fix it. It's not any kind of magic bullet on this stuff, but not saying anything is letting everyone else know that maybe maybe it looks bad, but maybe it's not as bad as it seems. Like, I do think more people saying something about this and and and being not being afraid to actually speak up is is worth doing right now. Pave America is brought to you by Strawberry.me. You know that feeling when a new year starts and you tell yourself, "Okay, this is the year

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45:53 The first one that you signed up for way back when, I had signed up for it also. Still pay for that, too. And that Yeah.

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46:40 RocketMoney help you reach your financial goals faster. Join at rocketmoney.com/crooked. That's rocketoney.com/crooked. Rocketmoney.com/crooked. All right, lots going on in the rest of the world right now. Uh most notably in Iran, where the regime has responded to massive anti-government protests with a brutal crackdown that has reportedly killed at least 500 people and led to the arrest of more than 10,000. Trump is weighing military strikes. He told reporters on Air Force One that quote, "The military is looking at it and we're looking at some very strong options." He also claimed that the Iranian leadership called up his team and wants to negotiate over their nuclear program.

47:15 And it seems like Iran's foreign minister has been in touch with Steve Wickoff, who else over the weekend. Uh on the plane, Trump said a summit of some kind would happen, but that quote, "We may have to act before a meeting if the regime keeps targeting protesters." Trump cares about protesters. Now, uh publicly, Iran is vowing to retaliate against American military bases or Israel if we do something. Tommy, where do you come down on all this? And uh and what do you think's actually going on?

47:41 So, I mean, the protests themselves, they started in late December. It was a bunch of merchants who were pissed because the currency suddenly devalued um and they were met about other economic grievances and then they quickly just grew in size and geographically and the demands became pretty radical including calls for uh the regime change. And what is so interesting about these is they're not it's not just cities, it's not just women, it's like poor people in rural areas. It's like all across the country and they're they're massive. And so initially the regime tried to seem reasonable and suggest they would sit down and talk and now they're they're cracking down. There's been um they cut off the internet a few days ago and there's just been massacres it seems. So um Trump about two weeks ago, Trump clearly laid down what one might describe as a red line. Um where he said quote if the regime kills protesters,

48:28 quote, "The United States will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go." Um so now he has a meeting on Tuesday uh when this podcast comes out where he'll reportedly make a decision. and the the reg the range of options are like military strike, cyber attack, uh more sanctions, maybe some like communication support for the protesters. I'm sure there's some like covert action stuff the CIA is pitching him on that we don't know about. Um the Journal says that JD Vance is pushing for diplomacy. Steve Wickoff, as you said, is in touch with the foreign minister. Like I don't I have no idea what he's going to do here. I mean, he clearly said if there's a massacre, I will respond militarily. So, it seems like he's on the hook to respond. But um like just like there's not an obvious solution here to the problem.

49:10 Where do where does the nuclear program fit into all of this? And like do you think that these protests um were in any way like fueled by the the the strikes on their nuclear facilities that that Trump ordered last summer?

49:23 I mean I think the the Israeli and US strikes on Iran showed the weakness of the regime mil militarily and they couldn't defend their own people. I mean, I think the difference here is like the the milit the Iran nuclear program strikes were discreet. It was like a clear objective. Um they hit three sites that were all nuclear related in some cases like the planning on those targets had been ready in practice for decades. Like I I remember being briefed on one of the strike packages for um the the Fordo strike. And so the the risk in those was pretty low. It was like you know Israelis had already taken out the air defense systems. Um we have overwhelming military superiority. And it was easy to explain to the American people why bombing Iran's nuclear program keeps us safe, right? Um even if we disagree on the efficacy of the strikes in this case, how do you do an air strike that deters crack on protesters? Like that

50:11 doesn't make sense to me. Um there's not universal opinion on whether it would be helpful or welcomed or not. There's some people who think the Iranians might rally around the flag if we bomb them again or the Israelis bomb them again. And then you just don't know who comes next if the regime is toppled. Like is it the IRGC? Is it hardliners? Is it chaos? Is it civil war? We don't know. And this this threat to retaliate, like, you know, I could see Trump maybe thinks it's uh they're a paper tiger given that the retaliation last time didn't do much to US targets. But what if the regime thinks uh this is existential and they're about to be toppled? Like maybe they go a lot harder. And so Trump has gotten really lucky. Like only by the grace of God were service members not killed when he uh executed Cosmosmani in 2020. remember they fired a bunch of ballistic missiles at a US base. 100 service members got traumatic brain

50:59 injuries but no one died. Um we have since learned that in the Venezuela raid one of the helicopter pilots got shot in the leg three times and if that person had been killed and that helicopter downed like this would be a very different mission. So one of these days something really bad is going to happen. This won't be costfree. Um but I you know it's just it's not it's not clear to me what he's going to do or what a good option even looks like. You see Lindsey Graham said he hasn't slept in three or four days because he's so excited about the possibility of regime change.

51:30 Yeah. Jesus Christ, man. That guy therapy for that guy. Just such a I think this is his therapy.

51:38 Yeah. Yeah. It's funny to think that Trump used to make fun of him all the time. Remember you say like there's no war he didn't want. He's a he's a neocon wararmonger who wants to invade everywhere and now he's just executing his foreign policy. I will say some of the videos that I've seen from Iran of just like, you know, when the when the internet has been on or people have been able to get videos out of just what they're doing to protesters and like the bodies is just horrific.

52:03 If this weren't if this weren't Trump and all that goes along with this being Trump, a US president threatening a dictatorship uh with retaliation on behalf of a protest like a protest of the people against the sort of the the evils of the regime. uh like you know if one outcome of it is the regime is afraid to kill more people in the streets that isn't a bad thing.

52:25 Yeah, absolutely. Look the people are probably looking at scream at their phones right now being like this is Obama and the Syria red line and he failed to implement it and it's been like look I I have a lot of I hear you like I think with the benefit of hindsight he probably should have hit some targets and you know set the message about chemical weapons and why it mattered. I just think if for the Iranian regime, if this is an existential fight against being toppled, no number of American air strikes is going to slow them down in my opinion. Like if they think that

52:53 they are no longer to be in charge, like they're dead anyway. So I think they're going to battle. And so the question is like if you look again at Syria,

53:00 uh Syria ultimately had a change in government that came from within. It took, you know, a decade plus 15 extra years. Um but that's how it happened. And the question is like even Netanyahu is kind of being restrained in this moment like kind of not talking about Iran, not talking about intervention, talking about how this needs to be an Iranian-led regime change because there is concern that if internally it starts to be viewed as kind of jing with the regime propaganda, which is that this is the US and the Zionists, you know, trying to topple the Iranian government.

53:32 That could weaken what is actually a completely organic set of protests. Uh, one thing to know is the turmoil in the Middle East isn't distracting our uh, America's first president, it's now America's first, from his plans for um, hemispheric domination. Over the weekend, Trump said he'd love to make a deal with Denmark, but that one way or another, we're going to have Greenland.

53:55 Wait, is it America's first? Is that a real thing? I just I just thought I thought it was real.

54:00 That's what it seems like now. Uh, he also added whether they like it or not. So, that's nice. Uh Trump officials are apparently going to meet with Danish officials on Wednesday. I think there's a congressional delegation, bipartisan delegation that's also going to meet with them. So, everyone's meeting with the Danes. Uh meanwhile, Bloomberg is reporting that the UK and Germany are talking about putting together a NATO troop presence there to discourage an invasion by us, another NATO member.

54:28 If they think Minneapolis is cold, wait till this administration gets to Greenland. Wait, wait, wait, wait till the videos of guys slipping on ice in Greenland. send ice to Greenland. That'll

54:39 um I have to admit I don't quite get the explanation that if we don't take Greenland, Russia or China will take it since Greenland is currently part of the NATO alliance. Am I missing something?

54:49 Here's the thing, John. You are missing something. So, uh this is what Trump's been saying. Russia or China is going to take it if we don't take it. As if it's like up for grabs.

54:56 In in the game of risk, Greenland is a key point to access Europe. If you can hold Greenland, you can put a lot of your troops into Greenland so that even under withering assault from the European continent, they'd have to roll six after six after six to be able to reduce the number of of troops you have in Greenland.

55:16 Did you notice on that map too and the risk in the game of risk cuz I went back and looked at it uh when happening? Oh, yeah. Well, people have been like posting about it. Venezuela is much bigger and takes up many more countries in South America than it actually does. It's just like you it goes from Mex from Central America Mexico right to like Venezuela taking up basically like a quarter of the thing about South America.

55:38 It does make you wonder like has Trump really been just looking at risk this whole time

55:41 because if you can hold Brazil and Venezuela those two spots you can keep the whole continent of South America.

55:46 The other theory along these lines that I've heard that I actually buy is the Merkar map.

55:49 The Merkar projection. Yes. Yes. So it's a way of drawing maps for those who don't know that makes Greenland really look really big. Like anything around the poles looks really big. And there are some people who think maybe Trump thinks that Greenland's like the size of the continent of Africa.

56:03 Yes, he he here's the thing. He definitely either does or if he knows that it's not that size, he still thinks that owning all of it would be cool because on most Mercer Merkar maps, it will look like we have more territory.

56:16 I am sure the map either one of those things for sure. The map in his mind is the same map that was in our elementary schools when we were kids with that big blob of USSR. He's he's an 80s guy

56:26 and the plasticity in his brain dried up in like 1988 and so that's what he's got. He's got a big Greenland there and he wants

56:34 it's why he also think like Canada's the 51st date because Canada looks pretty big up at north when uh on the Mercer map as well.

56:41 But to to your question, I mean not only is Greenland part of Denmark, which is part of NATO under an agreement that dates back to 1950s, the US has troops in Greenland and it has the ability to put in more. All we have to do is talk to them first. But we can construct, install, maintain, operate military bases across Greenland if we want. We can put personnel there. We can do, you know, anchorages, moorings. Like there's already a base there that monitors missile launches. And so again, we just have to consult them. And so if the Russians or the Chinese tried to take Greenland by force, they would be starting a war with NATO, which is why it's probably not going to happen. But if Trump wants to unravel NATO by taking Greenland, he might make that actually uh an option. So, uh, did you see that the Times like the interview Trump did with the times I think gave up the game on Greenland? He said, um, owning

57:25 Greenland is, uh, what he feels is psychologically needed for success. And I were talking about on,

57:31 right? So, like this is he just wants to be the dude, the president who added a lot of territory. Like this is a legacy project. This is not about security in any way.

57:39 It's it it's real estate, right? It's like, well, you you don't want to lease a building, you want to own a building. That's that's basically what this is all about.

57:45 Yeah. and he and he's got his in his mind like the that the expansion of the country uh like who got the Louisiana territory like who went west who made America bigger.

57:55 I also think it's worth pointing out you're all listening to this probably on on Tuesday which is uh Trump's kicking off the next stop on his affordability tour and what a tour it is because he wants to uh pay each up to $100,000 that that's been floated to buy Greenland. So to make things more affordable for Americans, we are trying to uh arrest the Fed share so that we can uh keep inflation high. Uh he's he just said that we're ruined if the Supreme Court rules against him on tariffs. He al just added more tariffs, 25% tariffs he just announced on any country that does any kind of business with Iran, which is quite a few countries. So we're trying to do more tariffs. trying to spend $100,000 a piece on Greenlanders while Americans can't afford uh most things.

58:42 And also, he did threaten aboard Air Force One to veto a potential ACA extension on the subsidies if it happens. Whose nightmare?

58:50 So, he is just crushing it on affordability day here. Whose nightmare do you think we're in? Are we in Kla's nightmare where she wakes up and realizes she has to give a different answer on the view? Are we in Merrick Garland's answer where he wakes up uh uh after becoming attorney general and realizing he has to move quickly to make sure Donald Trump can never seek higher office again? Whose nightmare is this? Hillary Clinton. Could be Hillary Clinton. That's a long she's been asleep for a long time.

59:12 Whose sleep demon? Whose sleep demon is this? Yeah. Whose paralous even is is troubling us today?

59:16 Oh boy. Um as for Venezuela, because we're not not done with that yet. On Sunday, Trump posted an image of his Wikipedia page mocked up to give him the title acting president of Venezuela. And he also said that he's quote inclined to keep Exxon out of oil development in the country because he didn't like their CEO's statement at the White House the other day that it's too dangerous to make investments in Venezuela unless there are big changes in governance. The sin of telling the truth. Trump seems to have his eye on Cuba as well, posting that they won't be getting any more Venezuelan oil or money and that they should quote, "Make a deal before it's too late." All caps. Cuban President Miguel Diaz Canel wrote back that Cubans are quote ready to defend the homeland to the last drop of blood. These all seem like healthy developments now. Uh, I mean, what's crazy about Trump being mad about the Exxon CEO's comments is

1:00:08 he's talking about their assets getting seized when the Venezuelans nationalize the industry in the 70s and then again under Higo Chavez. And he was criticizing the laws and the political climate under Maduro. And Trump just told us that he toppled the Maduro government and installed Deli Rodriguez to change the exact political climate that this CEO was complaining about. But Trump is like angry that it sounded negative.

1:00:32 Yes. is because it it's because it's like, "Hey, hey, you're making me feel you're making it sound like what I did isn't going to work. I don't need that right now. I want positive people at my table. I want I want people I want people that can

1:00:43 I want to hear Yes. Yeah. Let's Yes. And my my my invasion of my not invasion of Venezuela.

1:00:48 This is toxic, guys. Yeah, that's right. It's toxic. It's toxic. Yeah. I just again I can't get I can't believe it's been like just over a week since we invaded Venezuela. We bombed Nigeria on Christmas. He bombed Syria again over the weekend. They're talking about toppling Cuba. We're talking about taking Greenland by force. We're talking about bombing Iran again. Actually, there's two different pitches in the hopper for bombing Iran. There's the the bombing to support the protesters. Then Netanyahu has been saying, "Hey, let's bomb the ballistic missile stuff." So, maybe we'll get a two for one. I don't know.

1:01:16 Also, like Marco Rubio, who's out there just getting, you know, profile after profile. and my friend in the barrel

1:01:25 and everyone else um is is out he's you know taking great pains to be like we're we're all we're doing is using our oil embargo on Venezuela to sort of you know to nudge them towards the right direction and the right policy and we're and then Trump's like acting president of Venezuela it says so on my Wikipedia page

1:01:44 it's um it's uh we're so far from the things I think we should be doing to make America succeed and I just was like thinking like okay well I don't think this is good for the long-term health of the country or the short term and it's like well what would be some things like I don't know maybe

1:02:00 not invading Venezuela STEM education better schools like maybe some some some better transmission lines for clean energy I'm dunman pill as you all know and

1:02:10 and just we're just abundance bro over here but it but it just like what the there's such a it's I know it sounds stupid but and we're so far from it but they have such a lack of understanding of like what made America a powerhouse in the first place and it like it like power and force

1:02:25 and there listen there was plenty of hegemonic America America kind of asserting ourselves on the world stage but but in the country like why are we why do we have such a big economy we had really smart people inventing really amazing things that transformed the world and there's something about our culture and our people and all the people who came here and all the people who were forced to come here that have something magical about them that makes make amazing things happen and there's just absolutely no there's no thought to that that the success of America is about like growing America. It's about how we slice the pie of what like oil derks in South America.

1:02:59 I'm sorry. Growing America isn't taking Greenland and Venezuela. That seems like

1:03:04 I guess you're right. I guess you're right. Sort of geographically. There would be more. I do think I think we do do great with

1:03:09 we're kicking out a bunch of people. We're building a fortress around a much bigger country. I think that's that's

1:03:14 Let's take some of the failing schools here in the US and build them on Greenland, you know, and then you can be like James K. Pulk. Yeah. Uh just just to be a baby for a minute, the Rubio profiles are making me so crazy. It's like I've never seen a group of people spike the football on first down before. Like don't you guys remember mission accomplished in Iraq and everything like the the Venezuela operation the the Delta Force raid day one will almost will very likely be the best day.

1:03:37 The uh the first profiles do not matter. The first profiles they they become a joke in history. Donald Rumsfeld was the remember how much they loved him. the press would get they would love his little questions, his little snowflake briefs that he was dropping all about the building. That's the same vase you're seeing it twice. Like people thought he was a cat, a fun a fun guy. What a what an old old fun geyser up there.

1:03:57 My favorite is there's a there's a political profile and um there's a quote in there from someone that says like, you know what though, Rubio is building up a lot of capital right now inside the GOP and you know it really he really could make a run at 2020. I'm like oh yeah, oh yeah. We all know how valuable the capital inside the GOP is talking about inflation and has been in the Trump era, right? Yeah. No, usually it's the the insiders in Washington who didn't really want to see Trump uh to come to power in the first place.

1:04:28 They're the ones who were going to decide 2028, right? Marco Rubio Marco Rubio building a beautiful kind of uh cathedral of his ambitions. And Donald Trump just tweets Rubio fartuji. It's over. Just truly is one post away from being eviscerated by this guy. Out of ridiculous. Oh gosh. All right. When we get back from the break, you'll hear Tommy's conversation with Lel Brainard about why it's so crucial to have an independent Federal Reserve Bank. I can't wait to learn. Uh but two announcements before we get to that.

1:04:58 I'll be so different. Joy. Thank you for your question. What a great question. How different from Joe Biden? Let me count the ways. You won't believe it.

1:05:06 It's what would you have done differently? So many things. So many things, Joy. I honestly I don't think we have time. I don't think we have time to talk about how many different things I would have done than that old him. I'm different. Uh, two announcements before we get to that. The interview. Uh, Strict Scrutin is coming to the West Coast in the spring. The show in San Francisco is sold out, but you can join Kate, Melissa, and Leah in Los Angeles on March 7th at the Palace Theater. You think we can get tickets to that?

1:05:37 Yeah, we can. We can get or worst case we can just sit backstage. Oh, look. It says in brackets mention if you plan to attend. Thank you. Yeah, we'll be there.

1:05:44 Okay. Grab grab your tickets at crooked.com/events. Also, love or leave it is back with a whole new slate of shows at Dynasty Typewriter for 2026. Love it. Here's when I ask who do you guys have coming up and hopefully you know.

1:06:00 We've got Ted McInley, legend Michael Yuri. They're both in uh shrinking. Uh Robin Theiti is coming. We have Frankie Kenyon. We have Lisa Rena.

1:06:10 Wow. Coming up. We have a bunch of amazing shows coming up at Dynasty. Go to crooked.com/events. Come to the show Thursday nights. It's very fun. We cut a lot of the stuff that we can't include in the pod.

1:06:21 You mean future fed chair Lisa Rena? That's good. Turns out she doesn't traders. Turns out she doesn't traders.

1:06:26 Go to crooked.com/events to check out the lineup. We're always adding guests. Pave America is brought to you by Incogn. We live in a world where personal information is more accessible than ever. Sometimes a little too accessible. Data brokers collect and sell your private details, your name, your home address, your phone number, even your browsing habits without you ever knowing. That's where Incogn comes in. It works behind the scenes to remove your data from these databases, reducing your exposure to marketers, scammers, and anyone else who might use it without your consent. Your privacy should be yours to control. Take back your information with Incogn. Think of Incogn as your personal digital cleanup crew, sweeping your data off the internet while you sit back and scroll through memes. All you need to do is sign up, give them permission to act on your behalf, and they go out and demand that

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1:08:39 they know we sent you. Helixleep.com/crooked. Today I'm lucky to be joined by an economist who's held several of the most senior economic posts in the US government, including director of the National Economic Council from 2023 to 2025, vice chair of the Federal Reserve from 22 to 23. Then you had a bunch of other roles at the Treasury Department, uh deputy national economic adviser during the Clinton administration, the list goes on. Uh welcome to Pod Save America, Leil Brainard. Great to see you.

1:09:05 Well, it's great to be here. Thank you so much for doing this because I don't know much about the economy, but so let's just start with like a a quick Fed 101 for listeners who uh might be like me and aren't that familiar with, you know, what the Fed actually does. Can you just give us like the quick description of what the Fed's mission is and why it's so important that it be independent and what it needs to be independent from? Exactly. So look, the Fed is really important uh to keeping inflation under control and uh also having a strong job market in uh the US.

1:09:38 Back in the 1970s when the Fed uh was being pressured by the White House, uh they lost control of inflation. Inflation went up to double digits. It took a decade, Paul Vulkar, and doubledigit unemployment to get inflation back down. So, the Fed is just central to affordability in the American economy, to people's ability to plan their budgets over the next few years and have a sense of what they'll be able to afford. And it's also really important um for the long-term economic stability of our economy. You asked about independence, independence from what? So politicians generally operate on electoral cycles and in every country and certainly uh in US history, heads of state, elected presidents, they are very focused on their next election.

1:10:41 And so they often just want interest rates to be low and that leads to longerterm high inflation. And that's the reason that central banks all around the world but particularly in the US are asked by Congress to operate in a way that is independent of the president. independent in order to make sure that inflation stays low over many years rather than juicing the economy for the next election and then living with high inflation for many years after that.

1:11:18 Yeah. So, President Trump, he wants Chairman Powell to to take steps to cut interest rates. Um, could you just talk about why Chairman Powell is hesitant to do that and what the impact could be, you think, of a of a premature rate cut? And then are there international examples from other countries where maybe the Fed got politicized or the central bank got politicized and it created some sort of economic challenge or you know disaster?

1:11:40 Yeah. So the reason that the US Congress established really important protections for the independence of the Fed, including that the members of the Fed should not be able to be fired by the president except uh in very limited cases. um is because we can see historically and around the world what happens when short-term political considerations drive interest rates. What happens in those cases? And we've seen this very recently in Turkey where not only does inflation go up to double digits, but it can soar. Um and it's really hard to get very high inflation under control again.

1:12:26 So once you lose that uh credibility of the central bank then inflation starts to go higher and people lose confidence that the central bank can bring inflation back down and it ends up costing the economy just a decade of lost growth. And we've seen that in Argentina. We've seen it in Turkey. But we also saw it back in the 1970s after Richard Nixon famously pressured Arthur Burns to juice the economy for Nixon's reelection. Um, and then the American people paid the price in terms of unaffordable houses, unaffordable groceries for more than a decade. Mhm. So, Chairman Powell released this video Sunday night um talking about this investigation into uh essentially a plan to remodel the Fed and whether or not he misled Congress about it. Um but we we'll set that aside. But, you know, he released this video um basically saying, "Look, this is not really about whether or not I misled Congress. This is about Trump

1:13:34 wanting me to do his bidding and I won't." Were you surprised that that Chairman Powell pushed back so forcefully? He seemed like someone who is um pretty reticent to kind of get into the political fray like that.

1:13:46 Absolutely. So, uh the chair has uh been I think uh very much uh characterized by restraint by trying to stay out of the political fray which is of course the hallmarks of a good independent uh Federal Reserve chair. He was supposed to really not be swayed by short-term political consideration. So to see that kind of a forceful uh statement coming out I think took everybody certainly uh took Fed watchers uh people who are in the financial markets by surprise. But of course it comes after a series of actions that are all very unprecedented that this White House has taken to pressure the Federal Reserve. And so in the context of a series of unprecedented steps, it does really raise the alarm that the Fed could lose its independence and that would be bad for inflation in America.

1:14:49 Yeah. So I mean Powell's term as chair ends in May, but he could remain a Fed governor through 2028. Do you think this fight makes him more or less likely to want to stick it out through what I think January 31st, 2028?

1:15:01 It's a good question. I mean, I think the thing that you kind of have to ask given that he only has a handful of meetings at which interest rate uh cuts will be debated before the new chair uh comes into uh the Federal Reserve. It's really a puzzle why uh the Trump White House would be taking these actions at this juncture. The Federal Reserve just cut rates three times in a row uh in order to uh help uh strengthen the job market and cushion the US economy. And the most recent GDP data is strong. So, it's a real puzzle why they're so close to getting what they want, which is a new chair. Uh why this extraordinary move now? And I think it goes to what you're asking about, which is the chair can stay on as a regular member of the board, just a voting member, which he was before he became chair for another 2 years, which is until 2028. And so the real question mark given that he's going to step down

1:16:10 as chair in May anyway is are they trying to persuade him to leave the board altogether in May with with this kind of extraordinary threat and many people might actually counel uh that in these extraordinary circumstances it's important not to bow to that kind of pressure. So, I don't think we know what's going on behind the scenes, but it certainly raises that question of what are they trying to accomplish here?

1:16:40 Yeah, I I asked that about this administration uh often. Uh here's my idea. I was thinking maybe just between you and us that you could relate to Chairman Pal. I think he should threaten to raise interest rates a thousand basis points if Trump doesn't back off. What do you think? Good idea, great idea. So, um, let's just say that the Federal Reserve is best when they are doing their job looking at the data, boring, non-political, and certainly uh not in uh a kind of political back and forth uh with, you know, the most powerful person uh in America and maybe the world. Uh, so much better for the American people. um to have the Fed just continue doing their boring job, which is to keep inflation low and to keep uh jobs plentiful.

1:17:35 That's what they're really good at. And if um Americans are focused on affordability, and I think this is their number one concern on the economy right now, Americans want a more affordable set of prices. The Fed is central to that. Keeping affordability front and center over multiple years, not not just with a view to the next political election.

1:18:03 All right, I'll take that as a maybe. Um, so ever since the financial crisis, I I feel like, look, I I'm like a casual kind of stock market observer, but I felt like ever since the financial crisis, like the Fed's decisions uh have been the primary mover of the stock market, you know, like it's been Fed decisions around rates or bond purchases. They've had a greater impact on the stock market than like earnings or the economy or unemployment, like the things you would think are really the scaffolding or the import of the uh economy. And so it seems strange to me that today, Monday, January 12th, the markets and other kind of market indicators seem to be kind of shrugging off this attack on Chairman Powell and the Fed's independence. Do you have a theory for why that that is?

1:18:47 You know, I think you're exactly right. um that the kind of threats to the Federal Reserve's independence that you know the White House uh keeps engaging in um should really uh have a lot of people who are in financial markets who are trading stocks and treasuries. It should have them very worried because it's not a today story only. It really goes to the fundamental stability of US financial markets and the ability of the Federal Reserve to keep inflation predictable and low. It goes to the strength of the dollar. You know, people who are investing in dollar assets um really depend on low inflation in the United States. And so, you saw a little bit of a move right after that video came out in the kind of direction you would you would think you would expect.

1:19:42 stocks down, treasuries uh down, and um the dollar down. But you're right, the markets uh rebound, and I think the markets are just uh getting to the point where they're overwhelmed by just very unprecedented actions on the part of this White House.

1:20:02 If investors do start doubting the Fed and the health of the US economy, are there places where you think it might begin to show up, like the dollar? Is it people buying gold? Like what should we be watching for?

1:20:14 Yeah, absolutely. So, we have seen uh some of that uh concern about the dollar in the value of gold and the fact that central banks uh in other countries are holding relatively more gold compared to their treasury holdings than they were just a year ago. Um, you also will see it in long-term interest rates on Treasury securities because people get more nervous that their Treasury securities are not going to hold value if inflation goes up a lot because the Fed loses its ability to be independent. And that's bad, not just because we're already paying a trillion dollars of interest on our national debt and we need some relief there, but also because that then translates into higher mortgage costs, higher car loan costs.

1:21:09 So, it's bad for American households. This whole thing seems bad. Every day there's something new that's bad. You know, if it was about a week ago, we were bombed Venezuela and all of a sudden we're doing this. I mean, that just it's hard to keep up with this stuff. It's madness. Well, it is really hard to keep up with and um it is so unprecedented, but it's really important for Americans to stay focused on it because if they care about affordability, they really do care about the Fed's ability to control inflation.

1:21:39 And if the White House can go after this chair, they can go after the next chair. And that makes it much harder for any chair and any Federal Reserve to actually do their job, which is to really promote long-term affordability for Americans.

1:21:56 Yeah. Well, good for uh Chairman Pal for for pushing back. I was glad to see it. Uh Leil Brainer, thank you so much for helping me understand this stuff. I really appreciate it and it's great to see you again.

1:22:04 It's great to see you. Thank you. That's our show for today. Thanks to L Brainer for coming on. Dan and I will be back with a new show on Friday. I reading my favorite favorite rumel snowflake memo.

1:22:13 Uh two, Doug Feith. Uh subject issues with various countries. Body the memo. We need more course of diplomacy with respect to Syria and Libya and we need it fast. If they mess up Iraq, it will delay bringing our troops home. We also need to solve the Pakistan problem and Korea doesn't seem to be going well. Are you coming up with proposals for me to send around? Thanks. That

1:22:31 I remember that memo. It is so funny. It's like uh hey u listen if I don't see it before the end of the day. Solve Pakistan. Pakistan. It's a great boss. Defense Secretary.

Questions about this episode

Who speaks in "Top Trump Official EMBARRASSED BADLY In HUMILIATING Interview"?

John Favreau (Host), Tommy Vietor (Host), Lel Brainard (Guest).

What is "Top Trump Official EMBARRASSED BADLY In HUMILIATING Interview" about?

The discussion focuses on the political fallout from recent events, including Donald Trump's controversial stance on violence in response to protests, his aggressive rhetoric towards international relations, and the escalating tensions with the Federal Reserve over monetary policy. Key points include an investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell sparked by Trump's dissatisfaction with interest…

What is mentioned in this Pod Save America episode?

5 people, works and ideas are mentioned, including US Federal Reserve, ICE, Janine Piro, Leil Brainard, Strawberry.me. Each one on this page links to its own page with every episode that mentions it.

How long is "Top Trump Official EMBARRASSED BADLY In HUMILIATING Interview"?

The episode runs 1 h 23 min; the transcript is about 16,948 words in 201 timestamped sections.

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