San Francisco's housing market is entering a full scale correction (2025 supply explosion)

What this episode is about

This episode argues that the San Francisco Bay Area housing market is already in a steady correction, with inventory more than doubling over two years to its highest level in nearly a decade and home values down about 8% from their 2022 peak. The host breaks down the pressure points: 7% mortgage rates paired with a median price around $1.2 million have crushed buyer demand, pushing sellers to cut prices or list lower. Listeners looking to buy, sell, or invest will find county-by-county price data and real examples of properties losing value, though the host also stresses that homes remain expensive even after the declines.

Key takeaways

• Bay Area inventory has more than doubled in two years to over 7,000 homes, the highest in nearly a decade.
• Demand has collapsed: April 2025 home sales ran about 40% below the 2021 pandemic peak, with 7% mortgage rates doing the damage.
• Sellers are quietly cutting prices, but many still list high, so 'cheaper' doesn't mean affordable in San Francisco.
• San Francisco County values are down 14.5% since mid-2022, while the metro overall has dropped 8.1% from its peak.
• Buyers finally have leverage, but they should tread carefully, since falling prices can still catch them mid-slide.

What is discussed, and when

1. 0:00 – 3:00: San Francisco, Northern California, Reventure App, Reventure App
2. 3:00 – 6:00: Northern California, San Francisco, Marin County, Santa Clara County
3. 6:00 – 9:00: Northern California, Stockton, Inventory Surplus or Deficit, Marin County
4. 9:00 – 12:00: San Francisco, Northern California, Reventure App, Reventure App
5. 12:00 – 12:34: Northern California, Reventure App, Reventure App

Notable quotes from "San Francisco's housing market is entering a full scale correction (2025 supply explosion)"

• Could a big correction be coming for the San Francisco, California housing market in the second half of 2025? Some of the data we are now seeing in the San Francisco and Northern California housing market suggests that a.

  about San Francisco · at 0:00

• Thing you need to understand is the demand is way down. But check this out, everyone. Data available on Reventure app shows that there was 2600 home sales in the San Francisco…

  about Reventure App · at 1:27

• Condo is originally worth around 1.8 million in 2021. Now, it's worth 1.2 million. So, Zillow is saying the value of this condo is going down 30%. The previous owner actually…

  about Zillow · at 3:09

• They've also gone down in Marin County.

  about Marin County · at 3:56

• Francisco Bay area metro situation. It's also down to Santa Clara County. It's up in Sanwaqin County, which is Stockton.

  about Stockton · at 4:54

• Reventure app that I really, really like and that I would encourage you guys to check out. It's called inventory surplus or deficit. And this is showing you how much excess…

  about Inventory Surplus or Deficit · at 6:23

• The downside could be. To do this, we're going to go to Reventure App and look at a metric called percent crash from 07 to 2012. And you could see in that last downturn from '…

  about Percent Crash from 07 to 2012 · at 9:27

Who and what is mentioned in this episode?

Companies & orgs

• Zillow — Company · 2 mentions · first at 3:14
• Redfin — Company · 1 mention

Products & tech

• Reventure App — Product · 6 mentions · first at 1:31

Concepts & topics

• Inventory Surplus or Deficit — Concept · 1 mention · first at 6:25
• Percent Crash from 07 to 2012 — Concept · 1 mention · first at 9:30

Places & events

• San Francisco — Place · 15 mentions · first at 0:02
• Northern California — Place · 9 mentions · first at 0:10
  In the second half of 2025? Some of the data we are now seeing in the San Francisco and Northern California housing market suggests that a correction might actually already be…
• Stockton — Place · 4 mentions · first at 4:59
• Marin County — Place · 3 mentions · first at 3:56
• Oakland — Place · 2 mentions · first at 3:52
  Where they're down by double digits, but they've also gone down in Alama County where Oakland is. They're also they've gone down in Contraosta County.
• Santa Clara County — Place · 2 mentions · first at 4:32
  Interestingly, Santa Clara County is up over the last 3 years, but maybe not for long because the inventory in Santa Clara is also going up. And if we actually change this map to the.
• San Mateo County — Place · 1 mention · first at 4:30
• Sacramento County — Place · 1 mention · first at 5:01
  It's up in Sacramento County. We're also seeing the values now drop in Soma County, Napa County. So, pretty much all of this area here in Northern California is now starting to.
• Napa County — Place · 1 mention · first at 5:06
  It's up in Sacramento County. We're also seeing the values now drop in Soma County, Napa County. So, pretty much all of this area here in Northern California is now starting to…
• Alameda County — Place · 1 mention
• Contra Costa County — Place · 1 mention
• San Joaquin County — Place · 1 mention
• Sonoma County — Place · 1 mention

Sponsors

• Reventure App — Sponsor · 6 mentions · first at 1:31
  Thing you need to understand is the demand is way down. But check this out, everyone. Data available on Reventure app shows that there was 2600 home sales in the San Francisco…

Full transcript with timestamps

0:00 Could a big correction be coming for the San Francisco, California housing market in the second half of 2025? Some of the data we are now seeing in the San Francisco and Northern California housing market suggests that a correction might actually already be occurring with inventory levels skyrocketing and prices dropping. The question is just how much more are these values going to drop and when, if ever, will it be finally affordable to buy in San Francisco? With the big issue right now being inventory, the number of homes for sale in the San Francisco metro has more than doubled over the last two years to north of 7,000, which is the highest level of homes for sale going back almost a decade. This inventory is piling up in all of the counties across the San Francisco metro, including San Francisco, Marin, Alamita, as well as Contracasta. Such a large volume of listings on the market is now causing

0:54 sellers across the San Francisco metro to begin cutting the price. And many of these sellers, folks, they are listing their property still very, very high. The typical value of a home in the San Francisco metro is 1.2 million, which is the second highest in America. And the issue for San Francisco is that those high home prices are now intersecting with 7% mortgage rates. And quite simply, no one can afford to buy at these prices and rates. And as a result, the demand has collapsed. So if you're a buyer or an investor in San Francisco trying to understand the market, first thing you need to understand is the demand is way down. But check this out, everyone. Data available on Reventure app shows that there was 2600 home sales in the San Francisco Bay area in April 2025. You can see this home sale figure is down about 40% from the pandemic peak in 2021 and it's about down about 22% from the long-term average. So, when you

1:50 see demand down that low, it's a signal of a struggling market. And since there's so few buyers, we're now seeing the listings really begin to pile up and sellers, they're they're starting to freak out. And what they do, what they tend to do in San Francisco, everyone, is they don't just like do massive price cuts off the bat, but often a seller will just, you know, list the price cheaper than they did before. And these prices, everyone, they're going down, but they're still expensive. For instance, if we take a house here in Berkeley, California, it's a threebed, two bath on the market for $9.95. Now, that's an insane 761 a foot, but as you can see, it's only 31% more than the house was listed for in 2008. So, there's only been 31% appreciation on this house over the last 17 years, which is less than 2% a year average appreciation. So, the values here, they have corrected. They are correcting. If

2:47 we head on over to urban San Francisco, you can see again it's very expensive. A 2x1 house, 825 ft, 1.1 million, listed at $1300 a foot. Absolutely crazy. Here's a three bed, three bath condo for 1.2 million, $700 a foot. Now, you can see in this case, the values have gone down. This condo is originally worth around 1.8 million in 2021. Now, it's worth 1.2 million. So, Zillow is saying the value of this condo is going down 30%. The previous owner actually bought it in 2024 for 1.2 million and they're trying to flip it for the same price. I think they're going to have a difficult time doing that. There's one thing you got to understand, everyone is that the home values in San Francisco have actually been going down for the last 2 and 1/2 years. This has been a market that has been in a steady correction. Values in the San Francisco metro are down 8.1% from their peak in 2022. That's one of

3:41 the highest corrections of any large metro in America. These prices have gone down the most in San Francisco County where they're down by double digits, but they've also gone down in Alama County where Oakland is. They're also uh they've gone down in Contraosta County. They've also gone down in Marin County. And here's kind of the lay of the land for you home buyers out there in Northern California so you can understand just how much these values have corrected so far. So, downtown San Francisco, San Francisco County is down 14.5%.

4:10 Since the middle of 2022, sizable correction. We still have a 1.3 million typical home value. Expensive, but it's cheaper than it used to be. Contraosta County down to the east is down 8.8%. This includes cities like Walnut Creek and Conquered. Then, Alama County is down 6.5% and Marin County is down 8.1%. San Mateo County is down 6.6%. Interestingly, Santa Clara County is up over the last 3 years, but maybe not for long because the inventory in Santa Clara is also going up. And if we actually change this uh map to the monthly home value growth from Zillow available here on Reventure app, you could see that the monthly values are dropping everywhere in Northern California. So, this isn't just a San Francisco Bay area metro situation. It's also down to Santa Clara County. It's up in Sanwaqin County, which is Stockton.

5:01 It's up in Sacramento County. We're also seeing the values now drop in Soma County, Napa County. So, you know, pretty much all of this area here in Northern California is now starting to correct because the inventory levels across the entire area are going through the roof. And that surging inventory, it's a sign for you as a buyer that things are getting better for you. Because the housing market is a simple supply and demand equation. How many buyers are there? how many sellers are there and what's the net effect on the amount of listings on the market. And if you look at that inventory data, it's going to really help you understand where the values are going to head over the next 12 months. Because if you're a buyer and you know you're thinking of buying into this market where there's more listings, sellers are cutting the price, you better be careful, right?

5:51 Because you know, you can get a better deal, but then you could also walk into a situation where you end up losing lots of money. Say you buy a house and then the market goes down another 10% after you buy. You want to make sure you know what you're getting into. So, I'm going to do for you guys right now is I'm going to break down this inventory data in all the counties in Northern California for you. Not just San Francisco, but we're also going to do Sacramento. We're also going to do Stockton so you guys can understand just where your market is heading and how favorable it's going to become for you as a buyer over the next year. And to do this, we're going to go to a metric on Reventure app that I really, really like and that I would encourage you guys to check out. It's called inventory surplus or deficit. And this is showing you how much excess inventory there is on the market compared to long-term norms. And

6:34 what you can see here in Northern California is that we have an inventory surplus everywhere. You know, if we go to Marin County, inventory surplus is 46%. There's normally 419 homes on the market. Now there's 612 homes on the market. If we go to Contraosta County, there's normally 1,400 homes on the market in May. Now there's 2200 homes on the market in May. If we go to Alama County, there's normally 1,400 homes on the market. Now there's 2,300 homes on the market. This is also the case in Stockton. Normally 900 homes on the market. Now there's 1300. And I just want to show you guys what this looks like visually over time. So in an area like Stockton, Sanwaqin County, we now like last year only had 783 homes listed in May. Now we have,300 homes listed in May. And that's having a big downward effect on our price forecast at Revenge.

7:25 We're forecasting minus4.3% values over the next 12 months in Sanwaqin County due to this inventory surge. Also encourage you guys to take a look at Alamita County. This is where Oakland is, everyone. Oh boy, we have inventory exploding off the charts in Oakland. We now have 2,300 homes on the market across Alama County. Normally in May, it's only 1,300 homes. So when we look at this inventory data, we look at it in the same month in previous years. So we adjust for seasonality and you can see, wow, the inventory is going through the roof. And typically folks, on a seasonal basis, this inventory peaks in the summer, maybe August to September, uh July to August. So there's going to be a couple more months just on a seasonal basis of this inventory going up. You can see we have a downward forecast of minus 6.7% in Alamita. Now, one comment I need to bring up here about the Bay Area in terms of how much

8:20 potential downside there is is what happened in the last housing crash from 2007 to 2012. And what happened in that last crash was that the Bay Area went down by a lot in that last downturn. And I'm going to show you by how much prices crashed in that downturn in a second because I want you all to understand a simple fact. And that's the case that the Bay Area does have price downside and it's actually a very volatile housing market historically. And the reason I'm taking the time to explain this to you all is because I see a lot of local realtors in the Bay Area try to claim that values never go down in the Bay Area. I see that falsehood perpetuated very often on social media.

9:05 uh they like to present this idea that if you were to buy in the Bay Area, you're guaranteed to get appreciation into the future and that's just simply not true. Uh the Bay Area has a lot of price downside. Yes, the values have gone up a lot over the last 25 years. You know, they'll go down and then eventually they'll go back up. But I want you all to understand just how much the downside could be. To do this, we're going to go to Reventure App and look at a metric called percent crash from 07 to 2012. And you could see in that last downturn from ' 07 to 2012, values in San Francisco went down 32%. So the typical home value went from 657 down to 445. In nearby Stockton, values went down 63%. In Sacramento, they went down 48%. And you know, look, I'm not saying that the values are going to go down this much again. I'm merely showing you what happened in this housing market in the past. in the recent history going

9:59 back 15 to 20 years. There were a lot of people who lost a lot of money buying in the Northern California area. Now, of course, the values rebounded after that last crash. You can see they peaked in ' 06, then went down all the way to 2012, and then rebounded, peaked in 2022, and they've now corrected a bit since then. However, they're still really, really high, everyone. 1.1 million to buy a house in San Francisco. We think the fair home value based off incomes is more like, you know, this is a level that not a lot of people can afford. If you're going to buy with a mortgage in San Francisco, your monthly payment is going to be 7700 a month. And actually, most people here buy with a mortgage.

10:43 According to data from Red Fin, only 28% of home buyers in San Francisco use cash, meaning 73% use a mortgage. In San Jose, only 18% use cash, meaning 82% use a mortgage. So, this is a housing market with a heavy mortgaged home percentage. 67% of the homes in the area have an existing mortgage. People can't afford to pay 1.2 million unless there's debt involved. And so, so long as mortgage rates stay in that high 6 to 7% range. This uh housing market in San Francisco is going to be demand constrained. And I think we're going to continue to see prices drop. The question is, how much are the prices going to drop in your city and zip code? Because there's still some wide varying differences depending on which pockets you look in terms of how much downside there is. What I want to encourage you guys to do if you're a home buyer, seller, or investor or realtor in the Northern California area

11:38 is educate yourself on the data and look at our home price forecast at ww.reventure.app. You can access this one-year price forecast under a premium plan on Reventure app. You can see this forecast goes down to the zip code. There's some pretty big differences actually in how these forecasts are going in downtown San Francisco. Some areas we think are going to drop 8%. Other areas we think actually might go up over the next year. Some markets are starting to recover a bit. So, really depends where you are. You can see our forecast here and the scorecard. You'll definitely want to check this out for your zip code and county in Northern California. So, go to ww.reventure.app and upgrade to a premium plan. Right now, the cost is only $39 a month uh to access data that's potentially going to help you save thousands, if not tens of thousands of dollars on your home purchase. So, go to Revenant app right now, check out our

12:28 forecast, and hit like if you enjoyed this video.

Questions about this episode

What is "San Francisco's housing market is entering a full scale correction (2025 supply explosion)" about?

This episode argues that the San Francisco Bay Area housing market is already in a steady correction, with inventory more than doubling over two years to its highest level in nearly a decade and home values down about 8% from their 2022 peak. The host breaks down the pressure points: 7% mortgage rates paired with a median price around $1.2 million have crushed buyer demand, pushing sellers to…

What is mentioned in this Reventure App Data episode?

19 people, works and ideas are mentioned, including San Francisco, Northern California, Reventure App, Stockton, Marin County, Zillow. Each one on this page links to its own page with every episode that mentions it.

How long is "San Francisco's housing market is entering a full scale correction (2025 supply explosion)"?

The episode runs 13 min; the transcript is about 2,369 words in 16 timestamped sections.

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