Transcript

Haley Stevens Flips Against El-Sayed & the Media Goes Poll-Crazy | The Daily Show

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· 26 min · 3,051 words · 34 timestamped sections

This is the full, timestamped transcript of "Haley Stevens Flips Against El-Sayed & the Media Goes Poll-Crazy | The Daily Show", an episode of The Daily Show published November 3, 2026 (26 min, about 3,051 words). It mentions 41 people, works and ideas, including John Stewart, Opinion polling, Midterm Elections, The Daily Show, Democratic Party.

What this episode is about

Haley Stevens challenges El-Sayed in a heated political race, while media enthusiasm for poll results runs rampant. The segment also critiques the president’s midterm messaging and noisy public performances.

Key takeaways

  • Political spectacle outlives substance: pool maintenance eclipses policy, signaling priorities more performative than pragmatic.
  • Midterm betting markets hype a blue wave, yet real drama lurks in candidate feuds and PR misfires.
  • Announcer-driven buzzwords ('bombshell', 'tsunami') often mask ordinary campaigning—tone over tangible policy shifts.
  • Media friction around endorsements reveals the real battleground: who gets invited, who gets amplified, who’s ignored.
  • Personal animus in campaigns can eclipse ideology: loyalty tests and public feuds distort voter-perceived choices.

Who speaks in this episode?

What is discussed, and when

  1. – 5:00: Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, Midterm Elections, Donald Trump, Blue Wave
  2. – 10:00: Mike Rogers, Haley Stevens, Michigan, Anderson Cooper
  3. – 15:00: Israel, Opinion polling, Midterm Elections, Democratic Party
  4. – 20:00: The New York Times Magazine, Democratic Party, Republican Party, North Carolina
  5. – 25:00: Democratic Party, Harry Enten, Republican Party, Kalshi

Notable quotes from "Haley Stevens Flips Against El-Sayed & the Media Goes Poll-Crazy | The Daily Show"

  • [GROANS] But it's closing arguments time.
    about Midterm Elections · at
  • That was-- that was the president of the United States on the day before the midterms, choosing to make a speech at the Reflecting Pool to talk about the Reflecting Pool.
    about Donald Trump · at
  • But Stevens has always been very clear as to their shared goal of defeating Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers.
    about Haley Stevens · at
  • Man, this split between Haley and Abdul, it raises all sorts of uncomfortable questions about the ability for one issue to split a nascent Democratic coalition.
    about Democratic Party · at
  • Polls are just a snapshot in time.
    about Opinion polling · at
  • This program ignores most polls most of the time.
    about The Daily Show · at
  • If history holds in terms of the GOP outperforming their September polls, well, there's a very, very strong chance that Republicans hold on the United States Senate.
    about Republican Party · at
  • So to the cable news media, I am begging you.
    about John Stewart · at

Who and what is mentioned in this episode?

People

  • John Stewart — Person · Host · 1 mention · first at
    Main speaker delivering the monologue that ties together the reflecting pool speech, Haley Stevens' endorsement, and media obsession with polls.
  • Haley Stevens — Person · Referenced political actor · 4 mentions · first at
    Her endorsement of Republican Mike Rogers (after contest with Abdul El-Sayed) is a key news item used to illustrate intra-Democratic tensions.
  • Donald Trump — Person · Referenced political figure · 3 mentions · first at
    Referenced for giving the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool speech and as context for GOP alignment and midterm stakes.
  • Mike Rogers — Person · Referenced political candidate · 4 mentions · first at
    Republican Senate candidate in Michigan referenced as the target both Democrats hope to defeat and the candidate Haley Stevens unexpectedly endorsed.
    Mike Rogers has shown that he's just going to go along with whatever Donald Trump does.
  • Abdul El-Sayed — Person · Referenced political candidate · 2 mentions · first at
    Democratic Senate candidate in Michigan whose rift with Haley Stevens is discussed as a factor in the race and coalition tensions.
    Of course, we all knew there was drama in Michigan when Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed defeated Haley Stevens in a contentious primary for the Democratic nomination.
  • Harry Enten — Person · Referenced poll analyst · 2 mentions · first at
    Mentioned as someone who provides poll numbers (and calming analysis) that Stewart finds both useful and anxiety-inducing.
    Now, I appreciate guys like Harry Enten giving us the numbers to ease the anxiety that we all feel from guys like Harry Enten giving us the numbers.
  • Michael Lewis — Person · Scheduled guest (referenced) · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned at top of episode as an upcoming guest with a new book about the deep state.
    Not only is the comedy going to be tremendous, the great author Michael Lewis is going to be joining us later.
  • Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. — Person · Referenced historical figure · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced as part of the symbolism around the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool and the I Have a Dream speech.
    In the shadow of the Lincoln Memorial, with the echoes of Dr. King's I Have a Dream speech, please lay out for the American people what you think is most important for them to know.
  • Anderson Cooper — Person · Referenced journalist · 2 mentions · first at
    Mentioned in a joking exchange about an interview dynamic with Haley Stevens (Cooper as interviewer who got sassed).
    You just turned Anderson Cooper into Andy Cohen.
  • Benjamin Netanyahu — Person · Referenced international leader · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned in the context of Israel/Palestine discussion and criticisms around support for Netanyahu and Gaza.
    Supporting Netanyahu and their campaign in Gaza doesn't make you Jewish.
  • Mitch McConnell — Person · Referenced political figure · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned in a punchline implying he benefits from both 'ice cream and blowjobs' — used as satirical critique of his politics.
    If history holds in terms of the GOP outperforming their September polls, well, there's a very, very strong chance that Republicans hold on the United States Senate.
  • Andy Cohen — Person · Cultural reference · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced jokingly as a comparison to Anderson Cooper after Haley Stevens' sassy behavior.
    You just turned Anderson Cooper into Andy Cohen.
  • Steven Little Miller — Person · Cultural reference · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced visually as a comparison when describing Haley Stevens' fiancé's appearance.
    That guy looks like I tried to draw Stephen Miller from memory.

Companies & orgs

  • The New York Times Magazine — Company · Referenced news organization · 4 mentions · first at
    Cited as a 'gold standard' pollster while simultaneously being criticized for acknowledging its own poll uncertainty — used to illustrate media contradictions.
    But The New York Times poll is one of the gold standard polls, and today's New York Times poll of the South Carolina Senate race has shocked Republicans in South Carolina.
  • Comedy Central — Company · Distributor · 1 mention · first at
    Network that airs The Daily Show; included in episode context.
    The Daily Show airs weeknights at 11/10c on Comedy Central.
  • CNN — Company · Referenced news organization · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as a source of 'brand new CNN polls' used to stoke narrative about a Democratic wave.
    These people, they don't even believe in polls.
  • Kalshi — Company · Referenced prediction market · 1 mention · first at
    Used as an example of prediction-market-based probabilities for election outcomes, which Stewart mocks alongside polls.
    Just look at some of the latest numbers from our partners at Kalshi.
  • SUNY Binghamton — Company · Referenced institution · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as an example of a college awaiting admissions decisions in a comedic analogy about craving poll results.
    We're like college kids waiting for that acceptance to come on through. Come on!
  • Buffalo Bills — Company · Personal reference · 1 mention · first at
    Used as a quick personal aside (sports fandom) in a joke about randomness and hope.
    As a big Buffalo Bills fan, let's say, let's go.

Products & tech

  • Zero Holes condoms — Product · Passing joke/product mention · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced in a humorous line about safe sex to illustrate misuse of margins of error language.
    I always use Zero Holes condoms, plus or minus 11.

Concepts & topics

  • Opinion polling — Concept · Core topic · 1 mention · first at
    Central concept in Jon Stewart's monologue criticizing media reliance on polls and their unreliability ahead of the midterms.
  • Democratic Party — Concept · Political actor · 6 mentions · first at
    Referenced throughout as the party expected to perform well in polls, and as the party experiencing internal tensions (Stevens vs El-Sayed).
  • Republican Party — Concept · Political actor · 4 mentions · first at
    Referenced as the party potentially disadvantaged by polling but historically prone to outperforming polls in elections.
  • Blue Wave — Concept · Narrative framing · 2 mentions · first at
    Media shorthand for a large Democratic victory that Stewart critiques as speculative and poll-driven.
    Regardless, the Democrats appear in position for a wave election, not just the House, even the Senate, as long as the remaining couple of days before the election are bombshell-less, drama-free, non-earthquake key.

Places & events

  • Midterm Elections — Event · Contextual event · 3 mentions · first at
    The temporal and political backdrop for the segment — Stewart critiques pre-election media behavior and discusses races and polling ahead of the midterms.
  • Michigan — Place · Relevant battleground state · 4 mentions · first at
    Location of the contested Senate race and the Stevens/El-Sayed dynamic discussed in the segment.
    REPORTER 2: A bombshell out of Michigan.
  • Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool — Place · Setting (referenced event location) · 4 mentions · first at
    Site of President Trump's pre-midterms speech that Stewart mocks extensively; used as a symbol for misplaced priorities.
    That was-- that was the president of the United States on the day before the midterms, choosing to make a speech at the Reflecting Pool to talk about the Reflecting Pool.
  • Israel — Place · International issue referenced · 3 mentions · first at
    Referenced regarding Abdul El-Sayed's criticism and intra-Democratic debate over Israel/Palestine positions that contributed to the Stevens-El-Sayed rift.
    Supporting Netanyahu and their campaign in Gaza doesn't make you Jewish.
  • North Carolina — Place · Swing state example · 2 mentions · first at
    Mentioned as one of multiple states that could determine control of the Senate, illustrating media scattershot coverage of many states.
    But The New York Times poll is one of the gold standard polls, and today's New York Times poll of the South Carolina Senate race has shocked Republicans in South Carolina.
  • Iowa — Place · Swing state example · 1 mention · first at
    Listed among states that could determine control of the Senate; used to show media shifting focus across many states.
    The path to retaking the Senate might just run through Iowa.
  • Gaza — Place · International issue reference · 2 mentions · first at
    Mentioned in connection with discussion of Israel and Palestinian humanitarian concerns within the intra-Democratic debate.
    Supporting Netanyahu and their campaign in Gaza doesn't make you Jewish.
  • Maine — Place · Swing state example · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as one of many states the media cycles through when discussing paths to Senate control.
    The path to retaking the Senate might just run through Iowa.
  • Ohio — Place · Swing state example · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced among various states media highlight as decisive for Senate control to illustrate scattershot framing.
    If you want to focus in on one state, it is Ohio.
  • Iran — Place · Issue reference · 1 mention · first at
    Listed among policy topics (immigration, tariffs, Iran) that the media ignores in favor of poll coverage.
    Immigration, tariffs, Iran, ooh!
  • Kansas — Place · Swing state example · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as one of many states media cite as having potential influence on the Senate outcome.
    Could the path to a Democratic Senate majority run through Kansas?
  • Texas — Place · Swing state example · 1 mention · first at
    Listed among states that media sometimes highlight as decisive, to mock scattershot focus.
    So goes Texas, so goes the country.
  • Alaska — Place · Swing state example · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned fleetingly as one of many states that could be decisive in the Senate outcome, highlighting media scattershot coverage.
    And it all comes down to Alaska.

Media & podcasts

  • The Daily Show — Media · Program · 2 mentions · first at
    The show producing the monologue; Jon Stewart is the host and uses the platform to critique media and politics.
  • Fargo — Media · Cultural reference · 2 mentions · first at
    Used as a humorous comparison when describing the Stevens-Rogers endorsement as a diabolical episode of Fargo.
    This is the most diabolical episode of Fargo I've ever seen.
  • Curb Your Enthusiasm — Media · Cultural reference · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as part of a joke listing types within Judaism, used for comedic effect.
    You see, in Judaism, there is reform, conservative, Orthodox, and Curb Your Enthusiasm plot line.
  • Caddyshack — Media · Cultural reference · 1 mention · first at
    Used as a pop-culture analogy (Caddyshack quote) to make a joke about mixing tone.
    It's like at the end of Caddyshack when he goes, hey, everybody's going to get laid.

Full transcript with timestamps

Welcome to The Daily Show. My name is Jon Stewart. We got a show for you tonight. Not only is the comedy going to be tremendous, the great author Michael Lewis is going to be joining us later. He's going to be joining. Got a new book out about the deep state. Those bastards! But obviously, look, big story, midterms. I know. [GROANS] But it's closing arguments time. And today the president took to the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool to make his final case to the voters. I've kept every single promise I made except far more.

I've actually kept far more promises than I made. That is not possible. Dimensionally, in this realm. That-- now, dementia-ly, yes, that-- that may be possible, but not-- not dimentionally. But you know what? I'm sorry. In the shadow of the Lincoln Memorial, with the echoes of Dr. King's I Have a Dream speech, please lay out for the American people what you think is most important for them to know. And if you could, include visual aids. That-- that-- that would be so appreciated. Today I'm thrilled to announce the official opening of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool.

Now we're giving serious-- In the world, it's almost as tall as two Empire State buildings. Later, we resurfaced the bottom in a beautiful dark blue, very dark blue. They call it American flag blue, but it's very dark. This is a-- it's painted blue for purposes of-- It was all rusted. And we fixed the granite. We recaulked it. I mean, they've had-- All of this has been-- Years here where you couldn't see any water. It was just algae. And it had a bad aroma, to put it mildly. This has been-- this is a massive piece of-- piece of pool.

Good night, everybody. That's just-- I don't even-- I don't even know what to-- just to be clear-- I just want to be clear. That is not AI. That was not artificial intelligence. That was not artificial intelligence or, really, I think you would agree, any kind of intelligence. That was-- that was the president of the United States on the day before the midterms, choosing to make a speech at the Reflecting Pool to talk about the Reflecting Pool. No symbolism, no metaphors, just straight up pool maintenance. That was Donald Trump's "I had it cleaned" speech, if you will.

I have been to the Reflecting Pool. But with the president's priorities so badly misplaced, it is no wonder what the expectation is for tomorrow. ANNOUNCER: An electoral bloodbath. There is the blue wave coming. It's going to be a deluge. A blue tsunami. Blue bomb cyclone. Because Latino voters, this is going to be a blue wave and a brown tsunami.

Is she allowed to say that? And isn't a brown tsunami what ruined the Reflecting Pool in the first place? Or is it-- no, no, no, wait. Regardless, the Democrats appear in position for a wave election, not just the House, even the Senate, as long as the remaining couple of days before the election are bombshell-less, drama-free, non-earthquake key. REPORTER 2: A bombshell out of Michigan. REPORTER 3: A stunning last-minute shakeup. REPORTER 4: A political earthquake in Michigan's Senate race. Drama in Michigan. [GASP] Drama?

In Michigan? Well, frost my flakes. I mean, of course, we all knew there was drama in Michigan when Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed defeated Haley Stevens in a contentious primary for the Democratic nomination. But Stevens has always been very clear as to their shared goal of defeating Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers. Mike Rogers has shown that he's just going to go along with whatever Donald Trump does. He's not going to speak out when erratic tariffs are impacting our auto industry. He wants to just continue on, rubber stamp Trump.

The fight now is Abdul beating Rogers because Rogers is a nightmare. Can I tell you something? There is nothing that sounds bad in a Michigan accent. So what's the problem? What's the bombshell? [BOOING] Is her car in a ditch?

Is she endorsing Mike Rogers after getting in a car accident? Real quick, before I lose consciousness, I am endorsing the nightmare. The [BLEEP] happened? This is like, the most diabolical episode of Fargo I've ever seen. What could have driven, somewhat erratically, I mean,

what could have driven Haley Stevens into the arms of the Rogers campaign? But Abdul made very clear that I was not welcome in his campaign, that he didn't need me there, that he didn't want me there. I understand that. I did endorse the Democratic nominee, and he chose to close his campaign by saying I wasn't welcome. I've never been invited to a campaign event. That's fine. He's busy. He's running all around. I've had primaries before myself. It's not about that.

It does sound like it's about that, I-- I have to say. But that says why you're mad at Abdul. But not why you're for Rogers. Rodgers is, hold on, let me find the word, a nightmare! Who is against every principle you've worked for your entire career. I mean, at least say you were visited by three ghosts who convinced you that it turns out people don't need health insurance. This can't really be about getting your feelings hurt. You wanted to be at a public event with him up until some point, I guess yesterday. And I, it's just an interesting change.

And I think a lot of people are curious to try to understand it. Was that a question, Anderson, or-- No, I wanted to see if you wanted to fill in the silence, but you don't. - Oh, oh-- Yeah. Do you see what you just did there, Haley Stevens? Are you happy with yourself? All that sass you made. You just turned Anderson Cooper into Andy Cohen. Is that what you wanted? He didn't want to sass you. He's a newsman. He doesn't want to sass you. You gave him no choice but to sass. Now, to be fair, there is a rift here. El-Sayed has been very critical of Israel.

And obviously, Stevens, as also some other Jewish people in Michigan, have been upset by that. I am not Jewish. What the [BLEEP]? For reals? But then, why all the Michiganas? Her fiance is Jewish. Oh, the fiance is Jewish. That, I buy.

That guy looks like I tried to draw Stephen Miller from memory. But, by the way, ba, ba, ba, by the way, just because he's Jewish doesn't mean he's pro-Israel or Zionist. Judaism is not a monolith. Supporting Netanyahu and their campaign in Gaza doesn't make you Jewish. Although I will say this. Throwing away all of your personal and professional relationships over a perceived personal slight, that's pretty Jewish. That's-- we do do that. That's-- that's, if I may, that is pretty. pretty, pretty.

That's got big aunt who was an ass to light a candle at bar mitzvah energy. You see, in Judaism, there is reform, conservative, Orthodox, and Curb Your Enthusiasm plot line. You didn't invite me to the party? You didn't invite me to the party? Well, then I am now for deportation. Deportation! I say deport, deport! Man, this split between Haley and Abdul, it raises all sorts of uncomfortable questions about the ability for one issue to split a nascent Democratic coalition. It even brings up this country's relationship with Israel and what emphasis our leaders should be placing on their safety, and how to balance concerns for the tragedy for Palestinians with real concerns about anti-Semitism.

These are real, nuanced, complex issues. I wonder how our news media will discuss them. The big question now, how are voters going to react, and will it impact the polls? Doh! Oh, right, the polls. The polls. No matter how hard you try, you cannot keep our news media off the poll. And I know they might say, oh, we're working our way through the electoral college. No! Being on the poll is a choice. And yes, with the Stevens story, as with every story, nuance and complexity matter less than, what do the numbers say.

Because they know that that is what our little reptilian brains are craving. Immigration, tariffs, Iran, ooh! We don't care. What's the score? These numbers are absolutely staggering, and very bad for Republicans. New polls today, giving Democrats something to cheer about, as we inch closer to the midterm elections. A new wave of polling and race ratings has Republicans in a fresh panic. Breaking news. Seeing blue. Brand new CNN polls. Brand new poll numbers. The Republican freakout is here. Hoo, boy, brand new polling.

[HEAVY BREATHING] Oh, my God, thank you. I am so sorry I flipped out at you guys. But here's the question. What if the polls are wrong? Are you [BLEEP] kidding me right now? You mother-- the big polls, whoo, whoo! You can't say, whoo, and then, buh. It's whoo, it's not buh. It's not both. It's like at the end of Caddyshack when he goes, hey, everybody's going to get laid. Then you can't go, but what about that herpes virus? That's something. You can't do that. But that's what they do. That's the media's little game.

They prey on our emotions like little rats in a maze, getting that dopamine hit. We're like college kids waiting for that acceptance to come on through. Come on! Come on, SUNY Binghamton, let's go! They're throwing up these poll numbers on ever expanding screens. It's a giant screen. It's an even bigger screen. It's an even bigger screen. They're even doing big screens that are controlled by little screens.

And they wouldn't put up speculative nonsense in IMAX. Something that large can't be wrong. Because the very presentation is a vouch. News organizations are granting these numbers credence by the very fashion-forward and relentless way in which they report on them. But every now and again, in the quiet of the night, when the media tire of toying with the emotional wreckage that is their audience, they do tend to offer a big pharma-like disclaimer. That would be nice if they made a little bigger. It just feels like every election night we're always like, oh, the polls actually were kind of wrong.

We should all distrust the polls until we get to the election. It's undersampling voters. We've seen polls overestimate Democrats. A lot of people do not answer polls. Who responds to polls, is meant to be random, but it's not always random. Polls are just a snapshot in time. They don't tell you what's going to happen. They are not predictors of anything. In the corner, I see margin of error plus or negative 11. Then why the [BLEEP] are we looking at them? Why? Why are you showing them to us? Why are you talking about them constantly?

Why? Plus or negative 11? In the corner? Why isn't that the biggest number? Or better yet, why isn't that the number that makes you go, I'm not going to show this shit on television? And by the way, why are they the only mother-[BLEEP] who get a margin of error? The rest of us don't get a margin of error. This utilities check is for $217, plus or minus $11. Of course, I'm having safe sex. I always use Zero Holes condoms, plus or minus 11.

For my own blood pressure, can you at least tell me which unreliable numbers I should be focusing on? The path to retaking the Senate might just run through Iowa. Fine, Iowa. All right, fine. At least that focuses it. Iowa it is. The path to the Senate majority very much runs through Maine.

They're not even close. OK, fine, Maine. Got it. North Carolina could decide control of the upper chamber. South Carolina could decide which party takes the Senate. Could the path to a Democratic Senate majority run through Kansas? If you want to focus in on one state, it is Ohio. So goes Ohio, so goes the Senate, so goes the nation. So goes Texas, so goes the country. It is all about Michigan. And it all comes down to Alaska.

I'm just going to go. I don't-- You s-- So, the Senate comes down to the states. And you know what? Even those that pride themselves as polling skeptics cannot resist its siren song. This program ignores most polls most of the time. I have stated time and time again, that I don't believe polls. I don't trust polls. Go on. Boy, the polls that The New York Times published late last night, a shock. But The New York Times poll is one of the gold standard polls, and today's New York Times poll of the South Carolina Senate race has shocked Republicans in South Carolina.

Oh, wait a minute, oh, that's true. These people, they don't even believe in polls. Polls are fly by night. Oh, but The New York Times, gold standard. By the way, did you read the article about what The New York Times itself said about its own [BLEEP] polls? I've got the copy right here. It sometimes comes on paper. [AUDIENCE LAUGHING] Let's see their conclusion about their own polls, which I will be reading for real. [AUDIENCE LAUGHING] This is what they said about their own gold standard polls. They said their own polls could either be-- and I quote-- "dead-on, or they could underestimate Democrats.

Or they could underestimate Republicans." [AUDIENCE LAUGHING] In other words, even the New York Times is saying it's a poll, or it's a hat, or maybe it's a brooch, or maybe it's a pterodactyl. And let me tell you something right now. The only thing worse than your [BLEEP]ing relentless, incessant coverage of polls is when you make it fun. It's so fun. Aren't the polls fun? This is the types of numbers that should absolutely be scary-- scary. Ooh. As a big Buffalo Bills fan, let's say, let's go. It's always a roll of the dice when it comes to these Senate races.

You gotta put on some shades to understand these numbers. Number one, number one. I'm talking about this baby, yeah. Yeah, it's raining in here. It's raining. Please, please, no, no, no. Yes, there is some caution. [AUDIENCE LAUGHING] It's not fun. It's not fun. It's not cute. I don't know if you know this, but enthusiastic bullshit is still bullshit. Now, I appreciate guys like Harry Enten giving us the numbers to ease the anxiety that we all feel from guys like Harry Enten giving us the numbers. But the schizophrenic nature of the roller coaster ride is unbearable.

Here I am, 8:30 in the morning, trying to just get on with my day. The Democratic lead, it is building. These are numbers that Democrats should be salivating over. Democrats very much on their way, a staircase to potential electoral heaven. Wow. In a regime that began on an escalator to hell-- [AUDIENCE LAUGHING] --a staircase to potential electoral heaven would be most welcome. Thank you. And I'm sure when I check back in on you 75 minutes later on the same day, that's still the case. Hold on a second here, because we've seen this dance before, and it was not a dance that Democrats like when the votes were actually cast.

If history holds in terms of the GOP outperforming their September polls, well, there's a very, very strong chance that Republicans hold on the United States Senate. Then what the [BLEEP] was the staircase, with the heaven and the stairs and [VOCALIZING]? Oh, well, the numbers say we're dropping you into a field of ice cream and blowjobs. [AUDIENCE LAUGHING] But if history is any guide, both are being given by Mitch McConnell. [AUDIENCE LAUGHING]

[AUDIENCE LAUGHING] Uh, yup. Look, it would be one thing if after months of breathless, semi-informed speculation the polls actually turned out to be right. But if history holds-- If you're hoping that I had landed on exactly why things went wrong, I have not. It just seems to me that the polling did not accurately reflect what was occurring. We have to be really honest in the polling profession that there were some real mistakes made in this election and big misses. I was wrong. We were wrong. We were wrong. I don't have egg on my face.

I have omelet. We've really taken the hood off to look at what we did. That model probably needs a complete overhaul. It was a big surprise. Nobody anticipated it. No polls predicted it. No one saw it coming. How did that happen? Why did the polls miss by so much? About the only way you can hit something right on the nose is through dumb luck. The polls turned out to be about as reliable as a fan magazine account of a Hollywood starlet's rise to fame. [AUDIENCE LAUGHING] You've been wrong since you could still smoke on the news.

[AUDIENCE LAUGHING] Look, an election is an emotional time. The next couple of days will determine the future of our health care, our economy, and the state of our reflecting pools. The news should be soothing our nerves with information and context, not amplifying them with speculation you admit has little value. So to the cable news media, I am begging you. Please reconsider spending so much of your valuable pre-election airtime hyping up polls that you know to be unreliable. I can't think of anything more corrosive to your viewers well-being.

REPORTER: Well, forget about the polls for a second. Just look at some of the latest numbers from our partners at Kalshi. Oh, my [BLEEP]ing God. No, Harry. Harry, Harold, Harry, don't you dare. You can see this right here in the Kalshi prediction market. Look where we were a month ago. We were at 60% chance. Now we're talking about a very nice 69%. You son of a bitch. 69, huh? You old dog. All right. I guess that might not be so bad. Wait, who's the 6? No! [AUDIENCE LAUGHING]

Questions about this episode

Who speaks in "Haley Stevens Flips Against El-Sayed & the Media Goes Poll-Crazy | The Daily Show"?

Jon Stewart (Host), Michael Lewis (Guest).

What is "Haley Stevens Flips Against El-Sayed & the Media Goes Poll-Crazy | The Daily Show" about?

Haley Stevens challenges El-Sayed in a heated political race, while media enthusiasm for poll results runs rampant. The segment also critiques the president’s midterm messaging and noisy public performances.

What is mentioned in this The Daily Show episode?

41 people, works and ideas are mentioned, including John Stewart, Opinion polling, Midterm Elections, The Daily Show, Democratic Party, Haley Stevens. Each one on this page links to its own page with every episode that mentions it.

How long is "Haley Stevens Flips Against El-Sayed & the Media Goes Poll-Crazy | The Daily Show"?

The episode runs 26 min; the transcript is about 3,051 words in 34 timestamped sections.

More from The Daily Show

About this transcript: the episode's spoken words as captioned on YouTube, split into timestamped sections. Reclip.Me locates every person, work and idea in the text, keeps the time it is first named, and quotes the words around it verbatim. Last updated November 5, 2026.