What the Shutdown is Really About | The Ezra Klein Show

What is discussed, and when

1. 0:00 – 10:00: Recisions, Affordable Care Act, Filibuster, article one
2. 10:00 – 20:00: Medicaid, Kaiser Family Foundation, Affordable Care Act, Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)
3. 20:00 – 30:00: Medicaid, Speaker Mike Johnson, Affordable Care Act, Democratic Party
4. 30:00 – 40:00: Affordable Care Act, Filibuster, National Guard, Medicaid
5. 40:00 – 50:00: article one, blue states, Department of Education, Mark Carney
6. 50:00 – 1:00:00: blue states, National Parks, New York, New York, Second Avenue Subway
7. 1:00:00 – 1:01:21: End Times

Notable quotes from "What the Shutdown is Really About | The Ezra Klein Show"

• Democratic trust that help set the stage for it. The Affordable Care Act and Medicaid debates that are now at the center of it. And then the way the Trump administration is…

  about Medicaid · at 1:56

• Around it. This is a debate about another term people might be hearing called recisions. what are recisions?

  about Recisions · at 3:41

• Can decide to just not listen to Congress at all and I think that is really the fundamental threat to article one. They are both threats to article one, but it's this…

  about article one · at 6:06

• Really substantial investments and so people are going to see according to Kaiser Family Foundation on average their premiums double.

  about Kaiser Family Foundation · at 10:11

• So I don't know if people realize how big the increase in coverage was under the changes made in the inflation reduction act. So 2020 11.4 million people were enrolled in the…

  about Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) · at 11:01

• There's another group though which are people who live in red states that did not expand Medicaid. And one of the ironies of this fight is that Democrats are shutting the government down to protect and extend tax credits that.

  about red states · at 14:21

• This. from what I've heard of the meeting with Senator Schumer, Congressman Jeff, Speaker Johnson, and Leader Thun, with President Trump, is that the president really does seem…

  about Speaker Mike Johnson · at 19:29

• Well, that's another piece of this. The other thing that they have been doing is freezing money for projects in blue states. It speaks to the irony here of Democrats pushing a…

  about blue states · at 48:55

Who and what is mentioned in this episode?

People

• Speaker Mike Johnson — Person · 4 mentions · first at 19:34
• Ukrainian refugees — Person · 1 mention · first at 23:52
  Undocumented people, nobody crossing the border. We're talking about people like Afghani refugees, Ukrainian refugees, people subject to domestic violence who get protected…
• Mark Carney — Person · 1 mention · first at 49:48
  Expected to be the next Canadian prime minister. And that's in large part how Mark Carney got elected. in Brazil, it has united a lot of sport around Lula.
• Gene Shaheen — Person · 1 mention · first at 57:07
  Like? Do you think any Do you think that is clear? people talk a lot about Gene Shaheen, Democratic senator from New Hampshire, has become a key go-between with the Republicans.
• James Robinson — Person · 1 mention · first at 59:00
  My absolute top recommendation is why nations fail by Darren Aamagloo and James Robinson. the book the essential theme of the book is that inclusive political systems create inclusive economic systems. exclusive political systems create.
• Chris Hayes — Person · 1 mention · first at 59:45
  History but also a warning sign about our future. Sirens, Sirens Call, by Chris Hayes. and here that's very slightly different, but I think the thing and you've talked a lot…
• Annie Lowrey — Person · 1 mention
• Anthony Albanese — Person · 1 mention
• Daron Acemoglu — Person · 1 mention
• John Thune — Person · 1 mention
• Mikie Sherrill — Person · 1 mention
• Neera Tanden — Person · 1 mention
• Peter Turchin — Person · 1 mention
• Russ Vought — Person · 1 mention

Books & papers

• The Time Tax — Book · 1 mention · first at 27:12
  Programs. My wife Annie Lowry is literally writing a book on this. It's called the time tax.
• Why Nations Fail — Book · 1 mention · first at 58:54
  My absolute top recommendation is why nations fail by Darren Aamagloo and James Robinson. the book the essential theme of the book is that inclusive political systems create.
• Sirens Call — Book · 1 mention · first at 59:40
  Think it is also a description of our history but also a warning sign about our future. Sirens, Sirens Call, by Chris Hayes. and here that's very slightly different, but I…
• End Times — Book · 1 mention · first at 1:00:36
  You say. So I think that is a kind of really interesting understanding of the world. And then end times by Peter Churchen which kind of gives a sense of why we are in this…

Companies & orgs

• Kaiser Family Foundation — Company · 3 mentions · first at 10:16
• Biden Administration — Company · 2 mentions · first at 9:13
  And now there's 24 million people in these marketplaces. In part because during the Biden administration, the Congress took two votes to make the marketplaces more affordable.
• National Guard — Company · 2 mentions · first at 36:13
  One of the million policy problems flitting about the ether as Donald Trump sends the National Guard into cities.
• Center for America Progress — Company · 1 mention · first at 2:18
  Tanden is the president of the Center for American Progress, one of the largest progressive think tanks. She worked in the Clinton, Obama, and Biden administrations. Under Obama, she was.
• National Institute of Health — Company · 1 mention · first at 5:47
  By Congress. So the president has just not been spending funds allocated to the National Institutes of Health, to the National Science Foundation. to other elements of the…
• National Science Foundation — Company · 1 mention · first at 5:48
  Not been spending funds allocated to the National Institutes of Health, to the National Science Foundation. to other elements of the government and honestly I don't think we…
• Obama Administration — Company · 1 mention · first at 12:07
  Passage of the Affordable Care Act. I worked on the passage of the affordable care act and the Obama administration and really I think there was a big question. You know the…
• The Wall Street Journal — Company · 1 mention · first at 19:25
  Not think it is an accident that last week the Trump White House has a leak into the Wall Street Journal that they do feel like they have to negotiate this. from what I've…
• Democratic Party — Company · 1 mention · first at 29:58
  Large extent, when I talk to congressional Democrats, to them at this moment, the Democratic Party's brand is not shining, shall we say?
• Office of Management and Budget (OMB) — Company · 1 mention · first at 40:51
  Probably saw that President Trump tweeted an AI generated music video of office of management and budget director and as he put it project 2025 fame Russ vote.
• Department of Education — Company · 1 mention · first at 43:19
  Know, I pay a lot of attention to news. Do we even know if the US Department of Education is fully functional right now? he tried to close the agency. then a court reopened the agency, then they kind of lost a decision. It's really.
• Veteran Services — Company · 1 mention · first at 54:54
  About the national parks and there will definitely be stories about you know veteran services and things like that. I guess you know I think what is interesting about this…
• Clinton administration — Company · 1 mention
• ICE — Company · 1 mention
• USAID — Company · 1 mention

Products & tech

• Second Avenue Subway — Product · 2 mentions · first at 50:03
  Them unfairly, even if it is hurting them, right? New York does not want to see money for the Second Avenue subway frozen.
• Gateway Tunnel — Product · 1 mention · first at 53:00
  These projects, a variety of these projects affect New Jersey as well. Gateway Tunnel, other projects.

Concepts & topics

• Medicaid — Concept · 14 mentions · first at 2:00
• Affordable Care Act — Concept · 10 mentions · first at 1:14
  What it is about in the reality we're living in is healthcare. The Affordable Care Act for the last few years had been supported by tax credits that have made the premiums much lower and have expanded coverage under it enormously.
• Recisions — Concept · 6 mentions · first at 3:45
• Filibuster — Concept · 4 mentions · first at 4:01
  Essentially it takes you know what's interesting about the recisions packages is they are not subject to filibuster.
• Premium Shock — Concept · 3 mentions · first at 1:35
  Year. If nothing is done to keep them from expiring, there will be a huge what's called premium shock and millions of people will lose health insurance.
• Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) — Concept · 3 mentions · first at 11:06
• article one — Concept · 2 mentions · first at 6:12
• Neofascism — Concept · 1 mention · first at 8:25
  What they should try to draw the line on. should it be on neofascism? Should it be on authoritarianism? Should it be on mass men in the streets? Where they decided to draw the line was healthcare.
• American Rescue Plan — Concept · 1 mention · first at 13:20
  Do think it was really not affordable enough to a lot of people. and President Biden as first in the American Rescue Plan with Congress expanded the tax credits and then…
• Project 2025 — Concept · 1 mention · first at 40:53
  Tweeted an AI generated music video of office of management and budget director and as he put it project 2025 fame Russ vote.
• Continuing Resolution (CR) — Concept · 1 mention
• Exchange Markets (Health Insurance Marketplaces) — Concept · 1 mention
• Impoundments — Concept · 1 mention
• One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) — Concept · 1 mention
• SNAP — Concept · 1 mention

Places & events

• red states — Place · 3 mentions · first at 14:23
• blue states — Place · 3 mentions · first at 48:58
• New York, New York — Place · 2 mentions · first at 50:01
  When people feel that you are punishing them unfairly, even if it is hurting them, right? New York does not want to see money for the Second Avenue subway frozen.
• National Parks — Place · 2 mentions · first at 54:18
  Have air traffic controllers getting paid and you begin to have flight delays. You might have national parks close. Usually, you try to stay out of the way of that and blame…
• Georgia — Place · 1 mention · first at 14:50
  Credits. So you have more than 10% of the population now in Florida, in Texas, in Georgia, in South Carolina, in Utah using the Affordable Care Acts subsidies.
• South Carolina — Place · 1 mention · first at 14:50
  Credits. So you have more than 10% of the population now in Florida, in Texas, in Georgia, in South Carolina, in Utah using the Affordable Care Acts subsidies.
• New Jersey (Jersey) — Place · 1 mention · first at 52:57
  In order to maximize pain. But then, these projects, a variety of these projects affect New Jersey as well. Gateway Tunnel, other projects.
• Texas — Place · 1 mention
• Utah — Place · 1 mention

Full transcript with timestamps

0:00 The other Republican argument is that what Democrats are really trying to do here is give healthcare subsidies to, as they put it, illegal aliens.

0:12 Mhm. What is that argument they are making? Okay. I mean, I just need to say this is like the most deeply cynical, ridiculous thing, but I will

0:22 I watched your shoulders actually fall like I can't believe I have to deal with this bull. So, we are officially in a government shutdown. Democrats and Republicans are nowhere near, as I say this, coming to an agreement.

0:38 Government shutdown is now in its second week, and both parties are still pointing fingers.

0:42 Instead of trying to solve this shutdown crisis, Donald Trump spent the weekend golfing and posting memes and deep fakes on the internet.

0:50 I'll tell Jeff right now, if you help us reopen the government, the sombrero memes will stop. President Trump remains adamant that Democrats are responsible for the shutdown and for the potential layoffs of government employees.

1:02 The nature of this shutdown, people had lots of ideas over what if it happened it should be about. Should Democrats demand concessions on tariffs? Should it be about authoritarianism? What it is about in the reality we're living in is healthcare. The Affordable Care Act for the last few years had been supported by uh tax credits that have made the premiums much lower and have expanded coverage under it enormously. Those credits expire at the end of this year. If nothing is done to keep them from expiring, there will be a huge what's called premium shock and millions of people will lose health insurance.

1:40 Let me look right into the camera and tell you very clearly, Republicans are the ones concerned about healthcare. And so I wanted to have an episode diving into the actual policy debates and stakes of this shutdown, the spending fights that led to it, the unusual ways in which Republicans have been breaking Democratic trust that help set the stage for it. The Affordable Care Act and Medicaid debates that are now at the center of it. And then the way the Trump administration is trying to bring very particular forms of pressure to bear on the Democrats, trying to break them, make them capitulate, but they're doing so in ways that might actually be uniting them. The person I want to talk about all this with is Nero Tanden.

2:18 Tanden is the president of the Center for American Progress, one of the largest progressive think tanks. She worked in the Clinton, Obama, and Biden administrations. Under Obama, she was central and helping to craft and pass the Affordable Care Act. Under Joe Biden, she was director of the Domestic Policy Council. So, she knows all of policy here inside and out. As always, my email escline showny times.com.

2:49 Near Tandon, welcome to the show. Thank you so much for having me. So, if you're out there following coverage of the shutdown, you're hearing a lot about something called a CR. What is a CR? Uh CR stands for a continuing resolution and it basically is uh legislation that says that the funding levels of the government will just continue as they are for a specified period of time. Now you know what's different about this CR is that the president has used unilateral powers to kind of endun whatever the agreements are in Congress. Generally speaking, generally speaking, a continuing resolution is a agreement to fund the government.

3:37 Let's go into that little uh disclaimer you mentioned there, the the end runs around it. This is a a a debate about another term people might be hearing called recisions. Uh what are recisions?

3:49 Recisions are legislation that pulls back funding that has been agreed to. So uh essentially it takes you know what's interesting about the recisions packages is they are not subject to filibuster. So it could just takes a simple majority. So if it takes 60 votes to come to an agreement and then it takes a simple majority to pull back funding claw back funding that means that you know whatever you agree to uh in a bipartisan manner can be undone in a partisan vote. So there are often in congressional fights the things that people following in the news know everybody's fighting about and then sometimes some uh more internal procedural things that have completely pissed everybody off. And this recisions bit is actually from my talking to people in Congress pretty significant because what's happening is that you have Democrats and Republicans coming together uh making these funding deals.

4:48 they need 60 votes or more because of the filibuster. And then when in what's fairly unusual uh Republicans then clawing back money for things like PBS and you know public media and USA ID through recisions and so it has created this collapse in I would not say Democrats trusted Republicans a lot before this but the sense that they will now go around the deal you just made has created this harder to answer question of well how do you make a deal at all under those conditions? Absolutely. And you know, I think it's a really combination of things. It's recisions and then another really self-explanatory term, empoundments. So recisions are up to subject to a vote.

5:34 Empoundments are where the president just refuses to spend. The executive branch refuses to spend money allocated by Congress. So the president has just not been spending funds allocated to the National Institutes of Health, to the National Science Foundation. to other elements of the government and honestly I don't think we even have a full picture of what the executive branch has really not implemented of these congressional deals. So I think it's really both of these issues but it's also the fact that essentially Russ vote can decide to just not listen to Congress at all and I think that is really the fundamental threat to article one. They are both threats to article one, but it's this combination where essentially the executive branch is usurping article one spending powers. I know this is like totally in the weeds here, but Congress is designated to decide how the government allocates

6:33 funding and that's really being watered down. And what's interesting about this debate is I do think probably secretly a number of Republicans, particularly in the Senate and some in the House who were on these committees, appropriations committees, would secretly like the president's powers to be limited because it really is undermining their authority. But I think you're absolutely right. At the end of the day, you know, we have this, you know, this Washington talk about a clean CR, but fundamentally this is very different from any other period of time that I've been in Washington where essentially it's not a clean CR because, you know, you can undo it. I mean essentially you could have an agreement between Republicans and Democrats on what is called a clean CR and then a month or two later Russ could just decide not to spend you know multiple billions of dollars for an agency and then what what have what has

7:29 anyone even agreed to. So I think that is a fundamental part of this debate as well. There's also the reality that if recisions become common practice or empowerment becomes common practice, there will be democratic presidents and you can imagine them using that authority, right? There's a big spending deal. It funds ICE to a certain level. Actually, we're unfunding ICE to that level. We're not spending a bunch of the money on certain kinds of border enforcement. It seems very, as you said, it seems in the weeds, but the question of how you do normal congressional procedure when the deals stop holding is is a pretty big one here. But I think it it would be both selling the Democrats a little bit short and uh selling the Republicans here and their argument a little bit short to say this is just about recisions. Democrats have um increasingly come to the view that they can't let Trump run the government this

8:18 way. There's been a lot of debate over what they should try to draw the line on. You know, should it be on neofascism? Should it be on authoritarianism? Should it be on mass men in the streets? Where they decided to draw the line was healthcare. And so, they're not just asking for a clean, you know, extension of the funding in the government. They are trying to change what is about to happen in the healthcare markets. What is about to happen in the healthcare markets? So uh under the affordable care act there's the uh exchange markets. So this is a way in which basically middle class people can get health insurance through the affordable care act. And these marketplaces exist in every state. And you know the in 2020 there were 12 million people in these marketplaces.

9:08 And now there's 24 million people in these marketplaces. In part because during the Biden administration, the Congress took two votes to make the marketplaces more affordable. Essentially, they expanded the value of tax credits people receive in order to purchase healthcare in these marketplaces. And essentially, that funding is going to run out the end of this year. So what is uh imminently happening is that insurers are sending out notices now to people. It's just beginning. It'll uh increase over the next several weeks. Um because open enrollment, the time where people choose what health insurance they're going to have, starts November 1st. So people are going to start getting notices uh about what their premiums will be in the marketplaces in the coming year. and those they are they they will be subject to premium shock.

10:06 Um the tax the expanded tax credits were really substantial investments and so people are going to see according to Kaiser Family Foundation on average their premiums double. um you know a family of four making you know $55,000 a year are going to see their prices quadruple. So that is a huge price spike and essentially Democrats are saying that we should come together and avoid that price spike. And I will note the Democrats at the end of last Congress um in the at the in the waning days of the Biden administration, they tried to come to a negotiation with Republicans around this premium tax credit. Everyone knew this was coming. People talked about it.

10:59 Republicans didn't want to deal with it then. So I don't know if people realize how big the increase in coverage was under the changes made in the inflation reduction act. So 2020 11.4 4 million people were enrolled in the affordable care marketplaces. Right? So that's Obamacare as we understood it when you know Joe Biden becomes president. By 2024, four years later, the enrollment nearly doubles depending on how you look at it. In some cases, it does double depending on your years. So who are these people? Who is this massive increase of people flooding into the Affordable Care Act marketplaces between 2021 and 2024?

11:37 Well, essentially, uh, there are people who found the marketplace pretty expensive before and now found it and then found it affordable. And, you know, it's I think it's really interesting because, um, a sustained Republican criticism of the Affordable Care Act after it was passed is that it wasn't really affordable. I mean, they didn't want to make it more affordable, but they just said it was it was, you know, it was too expensive. And, you know, I think there was a big question. You know, I I know that you covered the passage of the Affordable Care Act. I worked on the passage of the affordable care act and the Obama administration and really I think there was a big question. You know the truth is the marketplaces there really two forms of coverage in the affordable care act. One is Medicaid expansion which is people who are pretty poor get coverage through Medicaid and then people who are above

12:26 the Medicaid threshold. So these are you know really like 99% of these people are working Americans. They are disproportionately in small businesses. They work for small businesses or own small businesses. Um they make, you know, anywhere from 1567,000 a year. Um but really go all the way to the income up the income. You know, they're really people are making 35,000 40,000 55,000 um individually or as a family. So people are choosing to buy healthcare in the marketplaces and it's subsidized healthcare. the government does help pay offset a lot of the cost, but you know, and people did, as you said, we got, you know, over 11 million people um in the, you know, roughly first 10 years of Obamacare, uh, the ACA to to get healthcare, but I do think it was really not affordable enough to a lot of people. and President Biden as first in the American Rescue Plan um with Congress expanded the tax

13:26 credits and then uh Democrats through the inflation reduction act extended those tax credits until this year and fundamentally we learned that actually people really wanted healthcare if you made it more affordable. Now again everyone has skin in the game. People spend they have to invest their own dollars. people who at higher incomes have to spend more money. But what we really learned is that people desperately want to have health care that is affordable. And when we made it more affordable, as you noted, it basically doubled the number of people who were getting healthcare. And I actually think in this country at this point, the fact that we have um the lowest rates of uninsurance in our history is a good a profoundly good thing for the country.

14:16 So you mentioned that a lot of people we're talking about here are they make a little bit too much money for Medicaid.

14:21 There's another group though which are people who live in red states that did not expand Medicaid. And one of the ironies of this fight is that Democrats are shutting the government down to protect and extend tax credits that heavily disproportionately benefit red states because in a bunch of these red states they didn't expand Medicaid and it means more people uh get the tax credits. So you have more than 10% of the population now in Florida, in Texas, in Georgia, in South Carolina, in Utah using the Affordable Care Acts subsidies.

14:57 Talk to me a bit about the both the policy and the politics of that. I mean the the politics of health care has been really odd over these like last decade or so because you know while we have gotten 40 states to do Medicaid expansions there are 10 states that have not passed uh Medicaid expansion in those states you do see a much higher percentage of people on the on the exchange markets just because they're so clearly desperate to have healthcare and they can't really get it. And of course, I think it is kind of insane. We live in a country where you have states where if you're slightly higher income, you get into you get into the exchange markets, but really low-income people don't have it. Um, you know, I do think that is very perverted and I'm glad that over a decade so many more states have come on.

15:49 But that does end up being a situation where as Kaiser Family Foundation has noted, you know, we're talking about 75% of people in these exchange markets um, you know, really being in places that Trump won. So, it's just a long way of saying that um Republicans are, you know, who are choosing essentially to make people in their states who already are struggling, I mean, these are not wealthy people, uh, just face again, not just a slight premium increase, but a real premium shock.

16:23 So, this gets to, uh, the politics of this in an interesting way. The Kaiser Family Foundation did a poll on whether or not people thought these credits should be extended, whether or not the the tax credits should be extended. They did this at the sort of roughly at the end of September. 78% of Americans were in support of extending the tax credits. You don't get that high of a number for many things anymore, but that included majorities of not just self-described Republicans, but self-identified MAGA supporters, right? It had nearly 60% support from people who said they were MAGA.

16:57 There was a Wall Street Journal story the other day where Trump administration officials were starting to say anonymously that they're actually worried about this, that they feel that this is actually a tough thing for them to own. It's not going to be great for them if healthcare premiums skyrocket for millions of people on their watch. The the shutdown fight is a partisan fight. The politics of this, the polling of this, who it helps, who it hurts, are not a partisan issue. It does not break along partisan lines.

17:27 Absolutely. And you know what's interesting about this is this reminds me of where we were in the ACA repeal debate, which is that was another debate, you know, now eight years ago, where we were talking about the president President Trump's effort to repeal the ACA. And, you know, in the heat of that debate, we were in a very similar place. 50% of Republicans did not want to repeal the ACA. U a majority of MAGA supporters did not want to repeal the ACA. Now, why is that? It's because this program is actually helping people that need healthc care coverage.

18:01 And it's just, you know, it's helping people in red states. It is, you know, it is a project of government to actually help people particularly. And I also think we're in a moment which is a little bit different from past moments where people feel that the cost of living is very high across the board. Now it's also really important to remember that when you if these premiums double that a lot of people will choose not to get coverage. People choose not to get coverage over time. You know we will see other people being impacted by that.

18:35 essentially emergency coverage goes up, hospitals shift prices to others. So, you know, we also know that when people lose coverage and the Medicaid with from the one big beautiful bill act, which I just struggle to say so often, but um from that, we know uh that when people lose Medicaid coverage, uh it actually drives up prices for other people in the market. that takes a longer time. But I think people totally understand that in this moment it seems like the opposite of common sense to allow this price spike to happen to people when it's completely avoidable. And the truth is, and just to touch on the last point you made, you know, Republicans know this is a problem. Donald Trump. You know, I do not think it is an accident that last week the Trump White House has a leak into the Wall Street Journal that they do feel like they have to negotiate this. You know, from what I've heard of the meeting with Senator Schumer, uh,

19:34 Congressman Jeff, Speaker Johnson, and Leader Thun, with President Trump, is that the president really does seem to get that he has to deal with this problem and that he might need to make a deal with um with Democrats. And then I'd say the last crazy point about this is people seem to acknowledge they have to deal with it. They just don't want to deal with it now, which I think just sounds nonsensical to most people.

19:57 Well, let me take that that argument. So what you hear if you listen to interviews right now with Senator Thun, with Speaker Johnson, it's that Republicans are happy to discuss this. They would love to negotiate over this. They understand it's a problem, but only after the government is reopened. They're not going to allow the government to be held hostage on this issue. They will not talk about this issue while the government is closed. What's your take on that?

20:20 I mean, I have to say I I I just think it just sounds ridiculous to people, right? I mean, people are going to get their premium shack like their notices in the next few weeks. So, I think the position of Republicans at this point, which you know, look, I think it's important that they're acknowledging that this is a big problem, at least maybe more Senator Thun than uh Speaker Johnson, but um they're acknowledging that this is a problem, but then that's sort of an intellectual trap, right? Because I'm saying like if you I think you're you're like a person who's worried about your health care costs going up. Um how does this sound to you?

20:55 We know it's a problem, but we'd like you to get your premium notice and then at the end of the year after you have to make a decision. You're supposed to start making decisions on whether you're going to purchase healthcare in November. At the end of the year, we'll deal with that. I mean, who thinks who thinks who thinks that that's like what you should do to your constituents? I mean, I think once you've sort of conceded this is a problem, then I don't really understand why the argument is we need to deal with it later and not now.

21:23 And obviously I mean I feel like every Democrat in America feels like they can trust what the congressional Republican leadership says and Donald Trump as as far as they could throw them. I mean it's just like a you know I mean I do think it sounds kind of cuckoo when you think about what the arguments people are making right now.

21:44 Give up your leverage and then we promise you the deal you'll get is great. There was actually a funny moment I thought on the Sunday shows this weekend. I was watching uh Speaker Johnson be interviewed and he's being pressed. Okay. You say this is a real problem. You say you need to deal with it. Are you saying that you support the extension of the subsidies?

22:00 But just to clarify what you were just saying, do I hear you correctly that you as speaker of the house want to see the tax credit extended at a future date? Is that what you were saying?

22:11 No. No. I I I haven't staked out any position on it yet because that's not how this process works. We're in a deliberative body. position because you said I'm telling you my position. I'm I'm the speaker of the house. What I have to do is draw consensus among 435 members of my body. I don't get out and and and project what the final conclusion is going to be. He very very clearly did not say yes. The other Republican argument is that what Democrats are really trying to do here is give healthcare subsidies to, as they put it, illegal aliens.

22:47 Mhm. What is that argument they are making? Okay. I mean, I just need to say this is like the most deeply cynical, ridiculous thing, but I will

22:58 I watched your shoulders actually fall like I can't believe I have to deal with this [ __ ] Uh, I mean it is just like I mean it's really funny to me. It's like you can I mean I worked in the White House and I could just imagine them sort of dialing up an illegal immigration argument as they have to deal with a confrontation on healthcare which of course they know that they have to deal with anyway. So it's it's just totally odd. Okay, the best case of their argument is that during the one big beautiful bill act they the Republicans limited Medicaid coverage to legal immigrants in the United States. They took they they made it more difficult for legal immigrants. No no no illegal aliens, no undocumented people, nobody crossing the border. We're talking about people like Afghani refugees, Ukrainian refugees, people subject to domestic violence who get protected status. So these are all people who have legal status in the

24:02 United States. Now they are doing a card trick to call them illegal aliens. They have legal status in the United States. They are not illegally here. You know, like they they've like shown themselves to the government. we know who they are and Democrats put forward and you know basically they said we'd like to undo everything you did in the Medicaid on your attacks on Medicaid and this was one part of it but really the substance of their argument was undo the massive cuts to the Medicaid program. So that is like just false that it is covering illegal aliens or not illegal aliens. is currently illegal under federal law for federal dollars

24:46 to go to healthcare subsidies for people here illegally. So that is like the number one point to just say about this which is the truth is that for those of us who are old enough to remember and I have some battle scars over this issue having worked on the legislation there's a big robust debate about whether people are legally here illegal aliens undocumented people could get access to the ASA and there is literally a provision that says by statute you cannot receive health care and the premium tax credit cannot go to any illegal aliens, undocumented people, whatever you want to call them. They that is illegal. And that is why they've had to do this mental gymnastics to get to basically transform people who are illegally here into illegal aliens. Like that is just this is like two different words. They have two different meanings and they're just conglomerating them in order to make what you know to have some shred of

25:43 making a lie true, but it is still a lie. So, we've been talking primarily about the Affordable Care Act, private health insurance marketplaces, but when we started talking about the uh questions of immigrants of different forms,

25:57 uh that gets you into Medicaid and as you mentioned the there a lot was changed in Medicaid. The the expiring tax credits come actually from uh Democratic bills, right? These were, you know, tax credits set to expire and as you mentioned, the inflation reduction act. Uh the Medicaid changes were in the OBBBA. Talk me through the Medicaid changes.

26:24 Yeah, I mean his this is this was this is the biggest seismic shift in healthcare in my 25 years of working on it and in a negative way. I mean, this is the Republicans essentially um put put forward a transformation of the Medicaid program. Um they adopted a series of regulations that will mean that millions of people will lose healthcare. um they instituted work requirements, but those work requirements, you know, just candidly are honestly about so much paperwork that it just really becomes hard for people to keep their health insurance. Um

27:05 you use use the complexity of the paperwork to kick people off the programs. My wife Annie Lowry is literally writing a book on this. It's called the time tax.

27:13 I know. I know. I mean, I'm I'm a great student of her work. We try we did a lot of work in the federal government to go the other way and make benefits easier and but um but essentially that is that is kind of the hack. The hack is that they make it's so complicated to access your benefits that people will lose their benefits. And um you know this is highly contested debate you know during the consideration of the bill but the fact has always been clear. Arkansas instituted work requirements with complicated paperwork and lots and lots of people lost their health insurance because you know you ask them to verify every month. The whole system is sort of designed to keep people out of healthcare. So that you know what just to step back and I know there was a robust debate about the one big beautiful bill but it it is you know the heart of that legislation was fundamental it's a complicated tax bill

28:16 but the truth of that legislation at its most base components was that unlike any legislation that has been passed by a Congress in at least my life we were Actually, the legislation itself provided a massive tax cut to the wealthiest. It extended middle- class tax cuts, but it big innovation was largecale tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans, a lot of corporate tax cuts, but really the structure of the legislation at and cuts to SNAP and Medicaid and you know there's the Republicans really had this big argument about fraud, etc. But that was all also just honestly, can I say [ __ ] on this? It was just BS. It was just ridiculous. And the fundamentals of that is Republicans have been trying to undo the expansion of the welfare state. Lots of people got healthc care coverage over the last decade and they really think that that's we're spending too much on that. And that's really fundamentally I

29:20 think why the legislation was so unpopular because you know they are a you know there's a lot of ways they can be in step or both parties are up for grabs but fundamentally I think Americans did not think that the big problem in America is that too many people had healthcare

29:36 which is one reason you know that Americans didn't think that is that Donald Trump never runs saying that he continuously runs saying he's going to protect Medicare he's going to protect Medicaid. He's going to fix the Affordable Care Act, give this country the health care it deserves. And to a large extent, when I talk to congressional Democrats, to them at this moment, the Democratic Party's brand is not shining, shall we say?

30:03 I think that's fair. This is their big political opportunity. This is the issue that Americans care about that they also trust Democrats on. This is the issue where Donald Trump is repeatedly betraying promises to people, right? Saying he wouldn't cut Medicaid in doing so, saying he would fix the Affordable Care Act, and then allowing a gigantic premium spike to happen. And I had a somebody who's very involved in the Democratic effort to take back the House say to me basically, "Look, the most dangerous thing Donald Trump is doing is his effort to sort of corrupt the government to do an authoritarian tool.

30:38 But the most effective tool Democrats have against him is healthcare policy. That they believe that the way they're going to win the House back is on healthcare."

30:49 Yeah. I mean, look, there's a fascinating marriage of convenience between sort of the welfare state, you know, pro- welfare state kind of populists and the and the libertarians. And um, you know, I think, you know, that this isn't popular, not just because Donald Trump didn't run on it, because also Donald Trump never talks about this. He never talks about OBBBA. He never, you know, I mean, I knew we were winning this debate during the consideration of the bill. Unfortunately, we don't live in a world where public opinion actually dictates how congressional leaders act. You know, they were dedicated to they sped up the debate because it is so unpopular. But I think, you know, I think what's really important to think about is like is is is, you know, how people hear these things, right? And we I mean we could talk for hours about there are a lot of people who pay a lot of attention to politics. There are a lot of people who

31:46 don't pay a lot of attention to politics. That has always been the case in the United States. There are always people that like we've always ran elections that way. And I think this is a really crucial part of this discussion which is in a world where lots of people are not paying attention to politics and they are pretty stressed out in their lives. you know, what are the things that they can that feel real in their lived experience? And you know, I just be candid that I just I am genuinely petrified by what the president is doing to weaponize the US military against cities. But I also think we have to acknowledge that a lot of people live in places that are not in cities. And to them, they're kind of not paying attention to the news every day and they're struggling to get by. And it is totally legitimate, and I think we have to say this, it is totally legitimate for that person to be pretty anxious

32:44 about making ends meet and hearing about health care costs for them going up. And I think the truth of this the country that we're in right now and maybe we wish everyone talked about one issue versus another but people understand this cost of living problem. I mean what's fascinating about America but it's not just America it's around the world. We just kept just ran a conference uh with leaders um you know pro-side of center left leaders progressive leaders from uh western countries you know Europe, Canada, Australia and 3 years after uh 9% inflation in the United States people care about cost of living today as much as they cared about it back then which says to me that there is like an overall sense that people are like feeling out of control of how they kind of afford their life. And so in that world, you know, democracies mean leaders have to meet voters where they are. They, you know, there's no like referee. The

33:50 voters win. And you have to And this is an issue, this is an issue where I mean, I think there's actually more opportunity. I mean, the thing that's so fundamentally amazing about the first eight months of Trump, which, you know, I expected a lot of the authoritarian threat. I'm not, you know, I I I finally I am genuinely surprised by their creativity, but uh it is horrifying. But the thing that is most remarkable and amongst the things that is so different from the first four years of his administration is he is actually getting away with hurting workingclass people this time. His big legislation in the first four years that would have hurt working-class people was the Affordable Care Act. And we stopped him. Democrats stopped him. people from outside the repeal effort to undo the affordable care act. Um this this eight months he has passed legislation to me that will mean that people's health they lose

34:48 their healthcare working-class people lose their healthare utility rates will go up and he has a tariff policy that means the price of goods will go up and who faces that cost disproportionately working-class people. So, you know, we have to have I, you know, we have to have alternatives for people, but we, you know, what you talk about really matters, particularly when you're in the opposition. And I think it is crucial that we talk about the pain that Trump is delivering. Trump and Republicans are delivering, having voted on it or or delivered it through his executive actions on tariffs. They are delivering pain to working-class people every day.

35:28 And we have to keep our eye on that ball. One of the arguments that I made about a shutdown and that others made about a shutdown is that there it's an intentional event.

35:37 That it is the problem Democrats have had is not that they don't have a message. They have lots of messages, arguably many too many messages. It's that nobody cares what they're saying because they don't have power. And the shutdown, what it's already doing is forcing a debate. I mean, you you know, turn on the news and you see Johnson and you see Schumer and you see Jeffre and you see Thoon and they're talking about health insurance subsidies, right? They're talking about the Democrats best issue. We are devoting a full show to it here because there's something happening on it, right? It's not just out there as one of the million policy problems flitting about the ether as Donald Trump sends the National Guard into cities.

36:16 You know, Democrats have been very uh skittish about using the leverage they have. I think people don't actually realize how much leverage they have not been using. They didn't just skip the shutdown in March, but they're, you know, giving, you know, helping Republicans get closure on the National Defense Authorization Act and all kinds of things. They are not throwing sand in the gears and creating crises as much as they could because they've been, I think, quite frightened about, well, what do they get out of it? Um, and what happens if Donald Trump um moves into a reprisal mode, which we'll talk about in a second. But one thing they get out of it is a modicum of control over attention. And then they actually have to win the argument, right? You can't pick a bad argument and lose. It's not going to help you. But already the, you know, you see the Trump administration starting to take their own danger on

37:00 health insurance subsidies seriously. Nothing matters in politics if people don't know about it. Nothing matters if people either can't feel it or even if they are feeling it, but there's not the attention to tell them how to interpret what's happening to them. But one thing the shutdown is doing, it seems like it's working, is shining light on this issue in particular, which is, you know, what Democrats on some level in addition to whatever negotiations they have set out to achieve.

37:29 Yeah, I agree with that. I guess I would just I'd say I I might offer an amendment which is I think the reason why this is getting coverage is because Democrats have leverage on the 60 votes and I think that look Republicans, Democrats, we all live in a media ecosystem which is a a challenge of it is there is a lot of news created by the Trump administration but also you know if something feels like a fat company it does not actually get that much attention. I'll give an example which is, you know, Republicans nuked the filibuster uh essentially nuked the filibuster in the leadup to the OBBBA.

38:10 And we don't have to get into the really hard to explain details, but essentially they blew up the filibuster on um being able to package uh nominees together. You know, Democrats basically didn't go along. They blew the vote. They blew up the filibuster. And like you know no one in America knows about this and you know that might have been a big debate a year or two, three, four, five years ago in normal politics but in a world in which Trump is you know threatening the National Guard into cities it does seem like kind of a minutia. And so I think the real issue here is having a fight over a major scale issue and also having the ability to like there is some sense you could possibly win the fight and at a time where you know I think the part of the democratic brand is is poor because people perceive it even Democrats perceive it as weak and that is why it is important for all leaders within the party to use opport

39:11 opportunities where they have leverage to um you know to speak out and just to say you know leadership is a social contract right I just think people like wherever it is it's a social contract it's like I'm going to follow you and you are going to protect me or look out for me or do something for me and here you know I think we we've talked about some of the authoritarian threat in the country and a real sense of just anxiety and fear amongst Democrats about how much our country is transforming in our eyes. And it is not unreasonable for in that moment when you are scared to look for your leaders to be strong. And so I think that is also part of the politics of all of this, which is here's an opportunity for Democrats to stand up for, you know, not just like willy-nilly something that helps them, but something that actually helps the American people in a way that every voter can understand. As you can see from this

40:19 poll, like it's not an intellectual exercise about congressional powers versus article one versus article 2 versus article 3. It is a real life debate about people's lives and that is an opportunity that has not come before and may not come again before the midterms.

40:36 So the Trump administration's response on this separate from their messaging is you think a shutdown is leverage for you? No, it's leverage for us. You probably saw that President Trump tweeted uh an AI generated music video of office of management and budget director and as he put it uh project 2025 fame Russ vote.

40:57 Nice of him to acknowledge. Yes. A year after the election, right? Um tweeted this music video of Russ Vote as the grim reaper. Here comes the reaper. Here comes the reaper. Going to tie your hands. Here comes the reaper.

41:20 The idea is that the shutdown gives Trump and vote powers to remake the federal government in some wholly new way that they can do things during a shutdown that they couldn't otherwise do. And Democrats should fear what they're going to do. What powers does it give them?

41:36 I mean, legally, it doesn't give them more powers. legally it's actually supposed to give them less powers because it's illegal to fire people during a shutdown while they're furlowed. That is actually in the law. Now, I appreciate that law is sort of, you know, questionable with these with the president. But, you know, I think there's two things going on here. One, Trump uses fear as an asymmetric asset, right? He he he basically I mean this grim reaper meme is exactly him trying to get Democrats to give in out of fear.

42:14 And you know I just think Trump is like any other bully. And the more you fear at his discretion, the more you're going to, you know, you're going to do what he wants, which is precower. I mean, that's the power of bullying. It makes you do things that the bully wants without without him actually have to throw that punch. But I also think there's something just completely different about this, which is, and I think this is like an underrated part of all this, which is we have never had a negotiation over the budget of the Congress between the Congress and the president. We've never had a negotiation take place like this while the president is fully committed to unilaterally closing down agencies.

42:57 I think the American people blame Trump because he's been closing down agencies or trying to close down elements of this government for eight months. Like it's, you know, voters aren't, you know, I just think the public just sees everything AC as, you know, they're not deciphering news separately. They see all this against a backdrop. And you know, I I pay a lot of attention to news. Do we even know if the US Department of Education is fully functional right now? I mean, he tried to close the agency. Uh then then a court reopened the agency, then they kind of lost a decision. It's really hard to keep track what's open and closed. So, I think, you know, fundamentally, I don't think you should give into the bully just threatening people, and it's kind of horrifying, but um and we shouldn't reward this kind of behavior. But also, um, I mean, I personally understand why people care.

43:46 They care about human beings and I do too. But fundamentally, he's going to get worse if he's not stopped. Right? This is the other part of all of this. We're in eight months, month eight. This is an opportunity to push back. What is really crazy, I think, and really just terrible is Republican House and Senate members have lost power to the president. And they, this is a system that Trump has hacked that, you know, our founding fathers expected Congressional leaders to care about their power over that. That's like the idea of separation of powers is that while the president might have a lot of power, members of Congress of both parties would jealously guard their their power. That is what he has hacked.

44:29 He has hacked his like scaring his own members into like basically seeding power to them. And so what really should happen here is Republicans who actually care should like basically secretly hope that Democrats win this debate so they can get back to being like I mean I'm also I just wonder every day like what's do you have self what's do you look in the mirror and just like have dignity like I just wonder what these people think they're doing. the specific argument that they're making about what vote can do is that they can do mass firings.

45:00 There's like two things worth talking about with that. So one is as you say that is facially under the law illegal. Now they've done a lot of illegal things. Supreme Court seems to be relatively um

45:12 eh they're relatively eh of relatively eh about things you would have thought were illegal but but but there's that and this would be you know pretty flagrantly illegal. Mhm.

45:23 The other though is I think a more like fundamental conceptual question. This idea that destroying a federal government that you run is like a good move for you. They're they're treating the federal government, which they are in charge of, as a hostage Democrats need to stop them from shooting. And to be clear, I do not want to see the federal government shot. But usually when you're the president and you run the executive branch, you don't want the executive branch to fall apart. And if you've been listening to some of Trump's cabinet appointees, they don't seem to want their agencies gutted. I mean, I believe this is why Doge functionally stopped. So, I guess you could just try to attack things only Democrats like in government. I think that would be illegal. But I'm curious for how you think about that because my view is that if they had wanted to continue gutting the federal government, they would have.

46:22 They have the power to do it. The fact that Russ Vote has not been doing much more than he's been doing suggests to me that the Trump administration actually has not wanted to do all these things. At a certain point now, they're running the federal government and they needed to work for them. Um, and that a lot of this is, you know, smoking mirrors. they would be like shooting at their own administrative body now as opposed to, you know, just something that's the Democrat's job to protect and and manage.

46:50 Yeah. So, I I think that what's fascinating about this whole like I'm going to shoot the hostage that is actually my agency is look, I have been on the other side of this. I was in the White House in the last four years where you know we were worried about Republicans shutting down the government and the truth is we you know I think honestly people generally think that the president is in charge and so you do the president is always worried or they should always be worried about owning a shutdown but also when you have a shutdown it really m it really matters what happens in the first 24 36 48 hours you know so I mean if you're thinking rationally about this this is what I think is so interesting is they basically threatened to have the firings, right? And so the real opportunity, the moment that you should really want to scare everybody would have been Thursday. You know, I really thought RV vote was going to start his

47:48 mass firings, you know, Thursday, Friday morning in order to pressure Democrats very quickly on uh to vote to reopen the government. That didn't happen. And I think the reason and it still hasn't happened. I mean, they keep threatening it. Still hasn't happened. Now, I don't wish it to happen. I hope they don't. I hope it doesn't happen. But I actually think that when Donald Trump does things like this, it makes clear to people he's kind of relishing the whole situation and that he owns the shutdown more than anything else. Like, it basically looks like he's in control of the situation, that he's basically using it as an excuse to fire people. And he literally says, "I'm going to fire people from Democrat agencies." Now, what is that?

48:33 What is a Democrat agency? The agencies that help working-class people, the agencies like is labor a dem who knows? But essentially, I think fundamentally the weird back and forth. And I think Republicans are clearly back channeling to him not to do this. I mean, I think it makes them look like they own the pain to people because they do own the pain to people.

48:55 Well, that's another piece of this. The other thing that they have been doing is freezing money for projects in in blue states. It speaks to the irony here of Democrats pushing a shutdown to try to protect tax credits that uh help red states and Republicans responding by freezing infrastructure money in in blue states. I've been talking to Democrats about this and universally what they are saying to me is that it is uniting their side and hardening their resolve. Um, I think there's a bit of an analogy to the tariffs here.

49:29 Trump has used tariffs to break a bunch of other countries uh and try to bring them closer in line with what he wanted. And in trying to do that to say to Canada, he united Canadians and destroyed the political career of the more Trump-like,

49:43 you know, right-wing figure who was expected to be the next Canadian prime minister. And that's in large part how Mark Carney got uh elected. Um, in Brazil, it has united a lot of sport around Lula.

49:56 When people feel that you are punishing them unfairly, even if it is hurting them, right? New York does not want to see money for the Second Avenue subway frozen. It tends to turn them against you. People don't enjoy being bullied. And so, I think these two levels, right? Normally what the president does during a shutdown when the shutdown is pushed by the the opposition party say listen I'm a thoughtful reasonable person here I would love to negotiate over anything my you know what I want to do is turn the lights on and I'm not going to let you hold the federal government hostage and instead Donald Trump what he's saying is that I am so excited to use this shutdown as cover to push an extremist agenda I wouldn't even have done 3 weeks ago I'm going to freeze a bunch of money from blue states and I'm not really going to negotiate with you.

50:49 It's not a way of deflecting blame. No. And I think I think people, you know, like I think people sniff this stuff out. I think, you know, this is it's really interesting mentioning Carney, you know, like look around the world. Who are the leaders who are actually popular in their countries? you know, Carney Lula in Australia, uh, Prime Minister Albenezy, these are people who are are actually gaining in popularity because they are standing up to Trump, right? I mean, I think this is the, you know, what's so fascinating about this moment is that Trump is basically like he has a motive operande that has worked against a series of institutions over this last eight months. It is to bully and scare you and to use the power of the federal government against them. In a world in which media networks are caving, law firms are caving, some universities are caving, this has been a very effective strategy for him to just literally scare

51:50 the [ __ ] out of people. And I think the truth of it though is like bullies work by bullying. If you are not bullied by the bully, then like half of their job is gone. So I think the irony of this whole situation is that you know he has a way of working which is to try and scare you and if you just hold firm you know and let it pass it will it's will be okay and that people would prefer I mean I've heard from people and agencies who are worried about getting fired but they think it's more important for Democrats to hold firm to Trump because they know if he is allowed to get away with this it will only get worse. It's also a longtime strategy that Trump's various opponents have used against him, which is to provoke him into overreaction.

52:37 Yes. And also, I think here, like this is a great example to me of an overreaction. He closes Second Avenue subway. He's closing all these construction projects. I think the idea was to punish Chuck Schumer and uh Hakee Jeff um in order to maximize pain. But then, you know, these projects, a variety of these projects um affect New Jersey as well. Gateway Tunnel, other projects. So, it's not just limited to New York City. And then, of course, that raised the question of what does everyone think about that? So, Mikey Cheryl, the Democratic uh candidate for governor, immediately attacked the president for unnecessarily closing down this project, stopping this project. Um, and then the question went to the Republican candidate and, you know, he basically said, I don't, you know, no one's asking me about this. he really is avoiding saying Donald Trump is something done something wrong even though I think

53:32 there's 95,000 jobs at stake. And so I do think it creates um interesting counter pressures in ways that perhaps Republicans have not thought through.

53:42 It it gets to this what is usually the question of the shutdown. A shutdown over time will cause pain.

53:48 What what Trump is trying to do is accelerate um with the the grants and the the funding. He's trying to cause pain to blue states faster than a shutdown naturally would. If Russ Vote begins, you know, laying off vast amounts of the federal workforce, maybe that would cause pain faster than than things otherwise would. But we're pretty early in this. The thing that will happen is that functions of the government, if there's not a deal, will begin to either degrade or to shut down. You know, you might not have air traffic controllers getting paid and you begin to have flight delays. You might have national parks close. Usually, you try to stay out of the way of that and blame the other party for it. But but talk to me a bit about what that might look like if if this week there's no deal, if next week there's no deal. I mean, if we're if we're starting to look at a shutdown of four weeks, you know, 5 weeks, 6 weeks,

54:37 what when this stops just being a media story about a a negotiation and begins to be something that's happening to Americans, what will they feel? will be stories about people not being able to get passports as easily and stories about the national parks and there will definitely be stories about you know veteran services and things like that. I guess you know I think what is interesting about this shutdown debate which I've been in various shutdowns but you know there's two issues in people's heads like what does the government do broadly and then you know if Democrats are capable of holding on to this line which I think they will be is you know there'll be another pain in people's heads as well which is premium shocks and I think you know these are two things and right now I And what's been really interesting about the shutdown is that there hasn't been as many stories as we usually get in a shutdown of in

55:33 the first couple of days of problems and other things in part because I think there might be a little bit more of people to those kinds of stories given the world we're in. But there will be more and more stories like that. I mean everyone sees things online. The argument of Republicans for the last year has been we should we should do Doge. we should do Doge on steroids because the federal government is useless and now they're the big champions of keeping it open. I just think at a fundamental level people understand that this is sort of [ __ ] you know. So, I mean I mean the whole thing this debate comes down to is like Democrats basically being let me help you, help me help you. Like you don't want these premium tax rates and you know if I were Thun and Johnson I would know that Trump basically wants to make a deal as well at some point. He's not going to like live like this forever. And you know, I'm sure he's

56:27 like much more focused on the National Garden Cities, but fundamentally his voters are going to be hurt by this. In a world where his economic approval numbers are already low and cost of living numbers are already low, anyone rational in the White House will know that they want to make a deal eventually. And he, you know, and do you think he's going to be so loyal to Johnson and Thun to not like basically pull the rug under their under underneath them? No. So I mean my take on all of this is this, you know, I think maybe before we get the mass firings, we will get a deal.

56:59 Do you have any sense yet of the outlines of what that deal might look like? Do you think any Do you think that is clear? I mean, people talk a lot about Gene Shaheen, Democratic senator from New Hampshire, has become a key go-between with the Republicans. Are you hearing outlines of something taking shape or not yet? I mean what I hear is that there are a lot of conversations but that none of them are engaged with soon and you have to engage the leader and he's holding on to his posture of really not negotiating on this and you know maybe things will change. I think you know I think Republicans had a lot more confidence last Wednesday that Democrats would fold. I think they expected the Republican message machine to work on immigration which it is not. people are not buying this immigration debate. Um two to one Republicans even think this debate is around healthcare and not immigration. So I think the fact that

57:56 they kind of went to their go-to scaring people about illegal immigrants and not it hasn't worked and you know the coverage really still is on healthcare and again it's going to get worse and worse and worse on healthcare because people are going to get these you know shocking premium hikes in the mail and then people will have to decide people will decide not to get coverage. You know these are going to be stories we all live with. So, um I fundamentally think that the the challenge here, you know, and just to be honest, Mike Johnson basically saying he's not going to take up this legislation. He's not even he doesn't even have the House in this week. I mean, how seriously are they taking this? It really has made it difficult for moderate Democrats to say, well, like yes, we can negotiate because whatever deal they strike with Thoon has to get agreed to by Johnson. And otherwise like what are they all doing?

58:47 And then I mean but fundamentally this will come down to Trump. Then always our final question. What are three books you'd recommend to the audience?

58:54 My absolute top recommendation is why nations fail by Darren Aamagloo and James Robinson. Um the book uh the essential theme of the book is that inclusive political systems create inclusive economic systems. Um, exclusive political systems create extractive economic systems, which basically to boil it down is saying that democracy is good for capitalism and markets and actually people's economic success and that maybe we describe oligarchy uh is really bad for uh economic growth and it is why countries uh tend to fail. Um, so I think it is also a description of our history but also a warning sign about our future. Um, Sirens, Sirens Call, uh, by Chris Hayes. Um, and here that's very slightly different, but I think the thing and you've talked a lot about this um, the most important element of politics is attention. You know, we talk a lot in politics about political leaders biography and

1:00:04 geography and their ideology, but like fundamentally their ability to convince people of their position and what they where they want to take the country and defend against attacks and have a vision for the future all depend on, you know, how much people want to hear and listen and be led by them. And that is all a really is all a function of people being first willing to pay attention to what you say. So I think that is a kind of really interesting understanding of the world. And then end times by Peter Churchen which kind of gives a sense of why we are in this moment itself and what explains the Trump era um based on essentially um how people probably have felt stuck for a long time and uh it makes me think about how we need a political system that is answering more fundamental questions than perhaps it has so far.

1:01:04 Near tendon thank you very much. Thanks so much for having me.

Questions about this episode

What is discussed in "What the Shutdown is Really About | The Ezra Klein Show"?

In order: 0:00 Recisions, Affordable Care Act, Filibuster, article one; 10:00 Medicaid, Kaiser Family Foundation, Affordable Care Act, Inflation Reduction Act (IRA); 20:00 Medicaid, Speaker Mike Johnson, Affordable Care Act, Democratic Party; 30:00 Affordable Care Act, Filibuster, National Guard, Medicaid; 40:00 article one, blue states, Department of Education, Mark Carney; 50:00 blue states, National Parks, New York, New York, Second Avenue Subway; 1:00:00 End Times.

What is mentioned in this The Ezra Klein Show episode?

59 people, works and ideas are mentioned, including Medicaid, Affordable Care Act, Recisions, Filibuster, Speaker Mike Johnson, Premium Shock. Each one on this page links to its own page with every episode that mentions it.

How long is "What the Shutdown is Really About | The Ezra Klein Show"?

The episode runs 1 h 1 min; the transcript is about 10,650 words in 101 timestamped sections.

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