Transcript

Iran's response to midterm results / The blame game / Risks and opportunities

From NPR · Episode page · Watch on YouTube

· 31 min · 5,702 words · 71 timestamped sections

This is the full, timestamped transcript of "Iran's response to midterm results / The blame game / Risks and opportunities", an episode of NPR published November 5, 2026 (31 min, about 5,702 words). It mentions 75 people, works and ideas, including Iran, Mary Louise Kelly, Donald Trump, Strait of Hormuz, Tom Bowman.

What this episode is about

The piece analyzes how midterm results reshape U.S. foreign policy toward Iran, focusing on how Iran’s leverage and potential concessions could impact ongoing conflict and the broader geopolitical landscape, including implications for U.S. domestic political dynamics. It also examines what the election turnover means for U.S. strategy and opportunities or risks on Capitol Hill.

Key takeaways

  • Poll-driven hornet’s nest: voters punished foreign policy fatigue; markets bore the brunt, yet domestic costs outlived warmongering claims.
  • Iran’s trolling isn’t chaos; it’s signal: strategic messaging that escalates with limited targeting, not full-scale escalation.
  • The 'wars cost us the election' line simplifies voters’ views; anxiety over prices often trumps grand strategic narratives.
  • Newsrooms overheat on grunt-work: complex geopolitics demand restraint, context, and counterpoints, not sensational aggregated clips.
  • Trump’s stance survives contradictory signals: nuclear red lines persist even as policy coherence frays under midterm pressure.

Who speaks in this episode?

What is discussed, and when

  1. – 5:00: Iran, Donald Trump, Washington, D.C., Mary Louise Kelly
  2. – 10:00: Donald Trump, Bahrain, Jerry (advertiser), Cure Duchenne
  3. – 15:00: Donald Trump, Donald Rumsfeld, Pete Hegseth, George W. Bush
  4. – 20:00: Bahrain, Strait of Hormuz, Iran, J.D. Vance
  5. – 25:00: Strait of Hormuz, Tom Bowman, Chuck Schumer, Open-source intelligence
  6. – 30:00: Sources and Methods, Europe, Tom Bowman, Pentagon
  7. – 31:24: NPR, Mary Louise Kelly, Sources and Methods, Pop Culture Happy Hour

Notable quotes from "Iran's response to midterm results / The blame game / Risks and opportunities"

  • It is just past noon here in Washington.
    about Mary Louise Kelly · at
  • That's of course, we're hearing in the days before the midterms, President Trump, this drum beat that maybe attacks might resume, allout attacks on Iran might resume. Tom, here…
    about Donald Trump · at
  • Just going to abandon this particular base and pull back farther west. So the Pentagon is still assessing which bases do we keep, in repair, which do we leave? They hope to have something along those lines, details by year's end.
    about Pentagon · at
  • We're back. Come January, as we've noted, Democrats will control both the House and the Senate. So, how might they use that control to push back on President Trump's policies? Policies.
    about 2026 United States midterm elections · at
  • Happen. And A is right. They still have a nuclear program. It's not completely gone. And Iran is in better position now than it was earlier this year because they have a say in…
    about Iran · at
  • They've they've shot up. I was just covering Emirates Airlines, the biggest mediest airline. It's like the you know the airline that keeps Dubai running.
    about Aya Batrawy · at
  • With AARI and Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman. It is true. The finish line is closed. Next week is going to be our last episode of Sources and Methods. So, everybody join me.…
    about Sources and Methods · at
  • You out there listening. I'm Mary Louise Kelly and I am back one more week next week with the last episode of Sources and Methods from NPR.
    about NPR · at

Who and what is mentioned in this episode?

People

  • Mary Louise Kelly — Person · Host · 3 mentions · first at
    Host and moderator of the episode guiding the conversation and asking questions about the midterms' foreign policy impacts.
  • Donald Trump — Person · Referenced decision-maker · 12 mentions · first at
    U.S. president whose decisions and statements about the Iran war and related policy are a focus; referenced in relation to domestic political fallout from the war.
  • Tom Bowman — Person · Guest / Pentagon correspondent · 5 mentions · first at
    Provides reporting and analysis on U.S. military posture, bases in the Gulf, and implications of the Iran war for U.S. defense and policy.
    Hey. we are well here. And when I say we, I mean that here with me in our Washington studio is my stalwart and peers Tom Bowman, Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman. Hey there.
  • Chuck Schumer — Person · Referenced legislator / Senate leader · 4 mentions · first at
    Senate Democratic leader quoted promising to 'end the war' — signaling likely congressional approaches such as funding restrictions or oversight.
    He was speaking to reporters on Wednesday. and the founding fathers had the power of the purse as one of the ways of deterring a president who does war without the consent of the American people.
  • Aya Batrawy — Person · Guest / International correspondent · 1 mention · first at
    Provides on-the-ground reporting from the Gulf region and analysis of regional impacts of the Iran war and U.S. policy shifts.
  • J.D. Vance — Person · Referenced political actor · 5 mentions · first at
    Quoted for his public statement blaming the war for Republican midterm losses; his comments are discussed as part of domestic political fallout.
    Yesterday, the vice president, JD Vance, unbburdened himself at length on X. He wrote, and I quote, The reason we lost, we being Republicans, the we the reason we lost is the war. Can you walk me.
  • Pete Hegseth — Person · Referenced official / Defense secretary · 3 mentions · first at
    Key figure associated with the Iran war discussion
    There's no question that Pete Hex is the face of the Iran war, just like Rumsfeld was a face of the Iraq war. he's been the big cheerleader for this. Let's keep bombing. Let's keep going. Others.
  • Benjamin Netanyahu — Person · Referenced foreign leader · 2 mentions · first at
    Israeli prime minister mentioned as having advised or encouraged more aggressive action earlier in the conflict.
    Straight of Horum first. that was in their plan. That didn't happen. And apparently Trump was told by Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli leader, Oh, we're just going to decapitate…
  • Anwar Gargash — Person · Referenced regional official · 2 mentions · first at
    Governor/official cited with varying spellings
    About a romance with the United States that has changed. Actually the UAE senior advisor he's a top Amiradi diplomat named Anar Gargosh was speaking at that security summit in Bahrain over the weekend and he talked about that romance.
  • Donald Rumsfeld — Person · Historical parallel · 3 mentions · first at
    Former defense secretary used as an historical analogy (2006) to discuss possible leadership change following midterm losses.
    So, Donald Rumsfeld was out. Do the parallels to what happened 20 years ago end there, or Tom, should the current defense secretary start polishing up his resume?
  • George W. Bush — Person · Historical reference · 2 mentions · first at
    Used to draw parallels between the 2006 midterms (during Bush's presidency) and current midterm dynamics and consequences for defense leadership.
    And flipped both the House and the Senate to Democrats. If this is sounding familiar, the president back then was George W. Bush. The war was Iraq. Afghanistan was of course…
  • Daryl Caudle — Person · Referenced military official · 1 mention · first at
    High relevance as naval operations figure in transcripts
    Said basically, We're not going back to Bahrain anytime soon. And you're right, almost all the service members, family members have left, and you could see pullback in some…
  • Jonathan Karl — Person · Referenced reporter · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as the reporter who asked the president about Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth's performance.
    And then Carl asked him, Well, you're getting a lot of calls from people who say he's not doing that great a job.
  • David Petraeus — Person · Referenced expert (quoted) · 1 mention · first at
    Quoted indirectly to pose the question about how the Iran war ends ('Tell me how this ends').
    Could be tolls. It could be service fees, but we're going to have to wait and see. And we can ask Senator Schumer if we ever get him on the air.
  • Mike Danforth — Person · Referenced staff member · 1 mention · first at
    Introduced at the top as executive producer of Wait, Wait, Don't Tell Me in a promotional sponsor read.
    Here's a great way to get the perks of being an NPR producer without doing any of the work. Join NPR Plus. With NPR Plus, you get extended interviews, inside looks at your favorite shows, and.
  • Mojtaba Khamenei — Person · Referenced Iranian leader (mis-transcribed) · 1 mention · first at
    Medium relevance in context of Iran war discussion
    That implies Gulf Arab states that have US military personnel here. and they've made very clear mushi the supreme leader that any attack on Iran would be met with an immediate…
  • Tove Jansson — Person · Referenced cultural figure · 1 mention · first at
    Low to medium relevance in cultural reference
    Finding catharsis amid the trauma of World War II. I crept into an unbelievable world where everything was natural and benign and possible.

Companies & orgs

  • NPR — Company · Producer / broadcaster · 4 mentions · first at
    Organization producing the podcast and employing the hosts/guests; central platform for the episode.
  • Pentagon — Company · Institutional actor · 5 mentions · first at
    U.S. Department of Defense headquarters central to decisions, studies (e.g., about women in combat), and war implementation discussed by guests.
  • US Navy Fifth Fleet — Company · Military asset referenced · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced as a logistical hub in Bahrain damaged during the conflict and altered U.S. posture in the Gulf.
    Summer. a year ago when he launched that shorter war. I was at a security summit in Manama, Bahrain over the weekend. I drove by on the highway past the fifth fleet, the US…
  • International Monetary Fund — Company · Source / economic authority · 1 mention · first at
    Cited for economic statistics about Bahrain's GDP decline amid the war.
    Yes. In these Gulf countries, their economies have been pummeled so hard by this war. The International Monetary Fund says Bahrain's economy is down 11% this year. You have…
  • Emirates Airline — Company · Economic example · 1 mention · first at
    Medium relevance as a referenced airline
    They are their profits are down almost 70% you know for so far this year. and one more thing to point out if I can is that all of these conflicts are interlin. So Gaza, the war in Gaza.
  • X (Twitter) — Company · Platform referenced · 1 mention · first at
    High relevance as social platform in quotes
    Yesterday, the vice president, JD Vance, unbburdened himself at length on X. He wrote, and I quote, The reason we lost, we being Republicans, the we the reason we lost is the war. Can you walk me.
  • Saudi Aramco — Company · Economic example · 1 mention · first at
    Company cited in economic context
    Yeah. So Saudi Aramco's profits are down even though oil prices are sky-high now.
  • Fox News — Company · Contextual reference · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned to describe Pete Hegseth's prior role as a Fox News personality who questioned women in combat.
    Ground combat positions for a decade now. About 5,000 in armor, artillery, and infantry. But Secretary Hegath, when he was a Fox News personality and an author, always…
  • Financial Times — Company · Source (presidential quote reference) · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced as the outlet where President Trump gave a line about not bombing right now — used to illustrate mixed messaging.
    Keep an eye on that. And you're right, President Trump has said, I may bomb. Then he talked to the Financial Times, said, No, I don't think I'll bomb right now. Then you have…
  • Associated Press — Company · Source (reporting cited) · 1 mention · first at
    Cited as reporting on the European flight bomb-threat incidents and as a general news source.
    The Associated Press is quoting a guy named Matthew Borie, founder of Osprey Flight Solutions, that's a UK- based aviation risk company. he says, Look, this could be anything.
  • Osprey Flight Solutions — Company · Expert source · 1 mention · first at
    Cited via its founder Matthew Borie to give analysis of the European flight bomb-threat disruptions.
    Osprey Flight Solutions, that's a UK- based aviation risk company. he says, Look, this could be anything from, one person calling in a threat and now they're all these copycats. It could be, a rogue group. it could be hybrid warfare by.

Concepts & topics

  • Regime change — Concept · Strategic objective / accusation · 2 mentions · first at
    Term used to describe perceived goals and rhetoric around the conflict; appears in Iranian reactions and discussion of war aims.
    They tried regime change, right? They tried regime change. That clearly didn't happen. And A is right. They still have a nuclear program. It's not completely gone. And Iran is in better position now.
  • Power of the purse — Concept · Legislative tool · 1 mention · first at
    Cited by Senator Schumer as an argument Congress can use to deter or end presidential military actions via funding control.
    He was speaking to reporters on Wednesday. and the founding fathers had the power of the purse as one of the ways of deterring a president who does war without the consent of the American people.
  • War Powers Act — Concept · Legal mechanism · 1 mention · first at
    Raised as a potential congressional tool to restrict or require approval for ongoing military action.
    What else could they do? could they basically push the war powers act get that through which basically means you know you can send troops over for 2 months and then at the end of that you.
  • Blockade — Concept · Tactical measure · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced as part of the Iran war's mechanics (e.g., naval blockade affecting shipping and economies); central to debates about sustainability and impact.
    Iran is in a better position now. You're going to have to give them some sort of a carrot. Something is going to have to change to end this war.
  • Open-source intelligence — Concept · Core topic (segment title 'OSENT') · 2 mentions · first at
    Segment of the show dedicated to OSINT observations and small, revealing details found during reporting.
    That brings us to the last section of our podcast, Osent, open source intelligence, not so secret, but telling details that we stumble upon in our reporting. Tom Bowman kicks off.
  • Hybrid warfare — Concept · Contextual threat concept · 1 mention · first at
    Raised as a possible explanation for coordinated-looking but puzzling attacks or disruptions (e.g., flight threats, cyberattacks).
    Threat and now they're all these copycats. It could be, a rogue group. it could be hybrid warfare by state actors. We don't know. Well, we do know Europe was already on edge.…

Places & events

  • Iran — Place · Primary actor · 5 mentions · first at
    Nation at the center of the conflict being discussed; its military posture, control of Strait of Hormuz, and political position are examined in relation to U.S. politics.
  • Strait of Hormuz — Place · Strategic chokepoint · 6 mentions · first at
    Crucial maritime passage discussed as central to the Iran war's strategic dynamics — control affects Gulf exports and global shipping.
    Neighbors. That's going to take a very long time to rebuild if it can be. But at the same time, they control the straight of Hermuz. I don't see any scenario in which the…
  • 2026 United States midterm elections — Event · Triggering event · 3 mentions · first at
    Broad political event referenced as context for timeline
  • Capitol Hill — Place · Legislative arena · 4 mentions · first at
    Where Democrats will exercise newly won authority, potentially influencing war funding, oversight, and foreign policy decisions.
    Oh, already there's there's been a problem on the Hill getting through the supplemental money for the Iran war. 67 billion. So they could just basically say, We're not going to fund this war.
  • Bahrain — Place · Regional setting / military hub · 6 mentions · first at
    Site of U.S. Fifth Fleet base discussed for its damage, reduced personnel, and role in U.S. regional posture amid the Iran war.
    Blackened. You can see that right there from the highway driving by. And there used to be 8,000 military personnel there and,300 family members.
  • Washington, D.C. — Place · Setting · 4 mentions · first at
    Specific east-coast setting indicated
    On the podcast, we dive deep into the biggest national security stories with NPR reporters here in Washington and around the world. This week, that is NPR international correspondent Aab Trrowi.
  • Saudi Arabia — Place · Regional actor / affected state · 4 mentions · first at
    Discussed in relation to Houthi attacks, strikes in Yemen, airport disruptions, and economic impacts from the wider regional conflict.
    Ceasefire that isn't really holding in Gaza these you know attacks by Yemen's Houthies on Saudi Arabia. I can't get to Riyad today. The airport there really isn't open because…
  • Israel — Place · Regional actor / referenced ally · 4 mentions · first at
    Mentioned in relation to its role in encouraging military action against Iran, its ongoing conflict in Gaza, and how U.S.-Israel ties factor into regional dynamics.
    Remember, they said three or four weeks.
  • Gaza — Place · Regional flashpoint · 2 mentions · first at
    Referenced as another ongoing conflict in the region that interacts with the Iran war and influences wider instability.
    Yes. we have the tenuous ceasefire in Gaza that is hardly holding really at this point. We still see daily killings by the Israeli military in Gaza, civilians being killed…
  • Tehran — Place · Actor reference (Iran's perspective) · 3 mentions · first at
    Mentioned in episode title/context and referenced as the Iranian capital observing U.S. elections and policy shifts.
    Both houses and as we just said, Senator Schumer wants to find a way to end that war. So, if I'm an Iranian official looking at that, it's like I'm in a better position. I can…
  • Dubai — Place · Base of reporting / setting · 2 mentions · first at
    Location of NPR's Gulf bureau and where guest reporting (Aya Batrawy) is based; used to provide regional context and reporting perspective.
    This is like a travel hub. This is a connection between the East and the West. And I'm thinking I would have to find a ride in cash to get back from Bahrain to Dubai somehow…
  • White House — Place · Setting (site of presidential remarks referenced) · 2 mentions · first at
    Referenced as the place where President Trump made comments about the war and the ballroom anecdote.
    This is a little taste of him. He was with reporters. He was at the White House raising a beam in his new ballroom and talking about the ballroom.
  • Gulf Cooperation Council — Place · Regional organization · 2 mentions · first at
    Referenced implicitly when discussing coordination (or lack thereof) among Gulf Arab states responding to the Iran war.
    The skies here during the war to shoot them down because interceptors are so expensive and running low. But when it comes to just the golf coordination, I was pretty surprised…
  • Manama — Place · Reporting location / Gulf hub · 2 mentions · first at
    Site of a security summit referenced by the reporters; used as vantage point for Gulf reporting and travel disruption anecdotes.
    Was hit earlier this week by the US on some I guess some launch pads there for Iran. I was in Bahrain and I thought to myself in the middle of the night when that happened, how…
  • United Arab Emirates — Place · Regional actor / economic example · 2 mentions · first at
    UAE (Emirates) cited for economic impacts of the regional conflict, and an Emirati diplomat quoted about U.S.-Gulf relations.
    I've seen Gulf Arab countries talking about a romance with the United States that has changed. Actually the UAE senior advisor he's a top Amiradi diplomat named Anar Gargosh was speaking.
  • Iraq — Place · Historical comparator · 2 mentions · first at
    Region mentioned as context for war discussion
    Back in 2006 when the Democrats took over, they tried to put an end to the Iraq war within two years by 2008. That didn't happen. What you did see were more hearings, more investigations, more.
  • Kuwait — Place · Regional actor / transit airspace referenced · 2 mentions · first at
    Referenced in reporting about missiles flying over Kuwait headed for Saudi Arabia and regional coordination failures.
    That was. And I was hearing things that were pretty shocking. Like for example, they'd say there'd be missiles flying over Kuwait, for example, headed for Saudi Arabia, and…
  • Europe — Place · Regional concern · 2 mentions · first at
    Regional region referenced in aviation/security context
    H All right. my OENT is this mystery of these weird bomb threats disrupting flights all over Europe this week. You were talking about flight disruptions in the Gulf. Yeah. today there were threats targeting four planes to Prague,.
  • Qatar — Place · Regional actor / economic example · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as one of the Gulf states whose ports have been impacted by Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
    This war. The International Monetary Fund says Bahrain's economy is down 11% this year. You have countries like Qatar and Kuwait whose ports are inaccessible because of the…
  • Riyadh — Place · Regional actor / transit hub impacted · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced in relation to attacks on Saudi infrastructure and the resulting disruption to travel and security in the region.
    Ceasefire that isn't really holding in Gaza these you know attacks by Yemen's Houthies on Saudi Arabia. I can't get to Riyad today. The airport there really isn't open because…
  • Kish Island — Place · Target / locus of strikes · 1 mention · first at
    Medium relevance as location in transcript
    Was hit earlier this week by the US on some I guess some launch pads there for Iran. I was in Bahrain and I thought to myself in the middle of the night when that happened, how…
  • Lebanon — Place · Regional actor (mentioned) · 1 mention · first at
    Listed among regional flashpoints (Lebanon, Syria) connected to broader Middle East instability.
    And other countries getting drawn in to help Saudi Arabia protect its airspace and its borders. And then you also have this war in the straight of Hermuz that and with Iran…
  • Syria — Place · Regional actor (mentioned) · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced as part of interconnected regional conflicts that compound instability.
    Resolved. So there's all these different wars. You can't delink them. And of course, we still have a situation in Lebanon and Syria with undefined borders there and Israel's occupation ongoing.
  • Afghanistan — Place · Historical context · 2 mentions · first at
    Mentioned as part of earlier U.S. military commitments referenced when comparing past midterm effects to current events.
    Myself. to remind 2006, the broad outlines of the situation were as follows. You had a deeply unpopular Republican president who had taken the country into a deeply unpopular…
  • Alexandria — Place · Local detail (reporter's anecdote) · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned as the location of a service station used by Tom Bowman when describing gasoline prices and personal experience.
    Well, yeah. I'm still paying $439 a gallon at my Delray service center in Alexandria. If you driving a pickup truck out in the Midwest or in the Far West, you're paying a lot…
  • Prague — Place · Incident location (flights targeted) · 1 mention · first at
    Named as one of the flight destinations affected by bomb threat disruptions in Europe mentioned during the OSINT segment.
    Flights all over Europe this week. You were talking about flight disruptions in the Gulf. Yeah. today there were threats targeting four planes to Prague, an aeringus flight to Rome, a thin air flight from Helsinki.
  • Ukraine — Place · Contextual comparison (drone incursions) · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced as another theater where drone incursions are being watched — contributes to European security unease.
    Supermarket fridges. And then speaking of drones, there obviously drone incursions you know on the edges of the Ukraine war that everybody's watching. So people in Europe are…
  • World War II — Event · Referenced historical context · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced in promo for Through Line discussing wartime trauma and artistic response.
    Finding catharsis amid the trauma of World War II. I crept into an unbelievable world where everything was natural and benign and possible.
  • Helsinki — Place · Incident location (flights targeted) · 1 mention · first at
    Named as origin of a Finnair (thin air) flight mentioned among flights affected by bomb-threat disruptions.
    They've stopped the planes or diverted them. They find no explosives on any of these planes. Everybody's fine. But it's not clear what the connection is. Like why these flights? Is there are they connected in any way? We have no idea.
  • Rome — Place · Incident location (flights targeted) · 1 mention · first at
    Named as a destination for an Aer Lingus flight mentioned among flights affected by bomb-threat disruptions.
    Flights all over Europe this week. You were talking about flight disruptions in the Gulf. Yeah. today there were threats targeting four planes to Prague, an aeringus flight to Rome, a thin air flight from Helsinki.
  • Moscow — Place · Context (editor background) · 1 mention · first at
    Referenced when praising an editor (Andrew) who has experience living and working as a journalist in Moscow; used to highlight expertise behind the show.
    To a story of mine, a story to do with Russia. And Andrew starts pulling up documents and translating them in real time from Russian, which he speaks beautifully from his years…
  • London — Place · Editorial travel destination (needs confirmation) · 1 mention · first at
    Low to medium relevance in travel note
    Andrew is out next week. He's going to be in London gallivanning. So, this is his last sources and methods. And we want to say thank you for all you have done to make us better. Round of.

Media & podcasts

  • Sources and Methods — Media · Podcast · 6 mentions · first at
    The program in which the episode appears; it frames the format and audience expectations.
  • Through Line — Media · Referenced program · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned at the end as another NPR program and to promote an upcoming episode.
    Finnish artist Tova Jansen and her children's classic, The Mumens. Listen to NPR throughine in the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.
  • Wait, Wait, Don't Tell Me — Media · Referenced program (promo) · 1 mention · first at
    Used in the episode's sponsorship/promo mention at the top by Mike Danforth.
    Here's a great way to get the perks of being an NPR producer without doing any of the work. Join NPR Plus. With NPR Plus, you get extended interviews, inside looks at your favorite shows, and.
  • The Moomins — Media · Referenced cultural work · 1 mention · first at
    Low to medium relevance
    Finnish artist Tova Jansen and her children's classic, The Mumens. Listen to NPR throughine in the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

Sponsors

  • NPR Plus — Product · Sponsor / subscription offering · 1 mention · first at
    Mentioned in the episode promotions as NPR's subscription product offering perks to supporters.
    Here's a great way to get the perks of being an NPR producer without doing any of the work. Join NPR Plus. With NPR Plus, you get extended interviews, inside looks at your…
  • Jerry (advertiser) — Sponsor · Sponsor / advertiser · 3 mentions · first at
    Sponsor message included in podcast sponsorship block
    This message comes from Jerry. Car insurance gives drivers plenty to be skeptical about. Jerry gives them a way to check. Jerry shops rates from over 100 insurers so drivers can review their.
  • Pop Culture Happy Hour — Media · Sponsor-promo / related NPR show · 3 mentions · first at
    Mentioned in episode ads/promos as another NPR program and recommended listening for audiences interested in culture.
    Want to survive the holiday conversation? Come prepared. Pop Culture Happy Hour gets you up to speed on the movies, music, and TV shows everyone is talking about. This way, you'll have a.
  • Cure Duchenne — Sponsor · Sponsor / advertiser · 2 mentions · first at
    Sponsor campaign topic referenced
    Support for this podcast and the following message come from Cure Duchen.
  • Duchenne muscular dystrophy — Concept · Sponsor-campaign topic · 2 mentions · first at
    Condition referenced in sponsor message
    For most parents, birthdays mark milestone moments. For families who are living with duchen musculardrophe, birthdays can be a reminder the clock is ticking and parents may outlive their children. Until there is a cure, every.

Full transcript with timestamps

Hey, it's Mike Danforth, executive producer of Wait, Wait, Don't Tell Me. Here's a great way to get the perks of being an NPR producer without doing any of the work. Join NPR Plus. With NPR Plus, you get extended interviews, inside looks at your favorite shows, and more. All while supporting NPR and never having to pull an allnighter. Or if you work on one of the new shows, an all morninger. Sign up at plus.npr.org.

Iran is in a better position now. You're going to have to give them some sort of a carrot. Something is going to have to change to end this war.

A blue tsunami, earthquake, avalanche. What will the democratic trouncing mean for President Trump's ambitions overseas? And why is Tyrron paying such close attention to the change up on Capitol Hill? This is Sources and Methods from NPR. I'm Mary Louise Kelly. It is Thursday. It is November 5th. It's sources and methods day. And as you know, every week on the podcast, we dive deep into the biggest national security stories with NPR reporters here in Washington and around the world. This week, that is NPR international correspondent Aab Trrowi.

She leads NPR's Gulf Bureau from Dubai. Hey there. Hi, Mary Louise. Hey. Uh, we are well here. And when I say we, I mean that here with me in our Washington studio is my stalwart and peers Tom Bowman, Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman. Hey there.

Love to be here. It is just past noon here in Washington. It is just past 9 uh in the evening there in Dubai. Let's dig in. Uh Tom, I don't know about you, I feel like I'm still just coming up for error after the days and weeks of this midterm uh whirlwind. Our task now is let's unpack what a historic win uh for the Democrats is going to mean, not just here in America, but for the world. uh Iran. The war there was front of mind for American voters, voters who, as we now know, turned out in uh record numbers to vote overwhelmingly against Republicans. A what has Iran's response to the election been?

Okay. It's been a lot of trolling, I will say. They said that regime change actually happened in the US quicker than it did in Iran. So, there's been some memes and things like that. Um, there was also the Iranian embassy in one of the countries overseas also posted an AI generated video of President Trump being carried out of the White House and dumped into a dumpster that said hazardous material on it. So, a lot of trolling about this loss and a lot of uh blaming it on trying to start what they say is an illegal war on Iran. And any sense of how they're viewing this window of what, like around 2 months between now and when changes actually kick in on Capitol Hill? Are they racing to get anything done or not?

Well, as of just a few minutes ago, they were still releasing statements threatening that if they are attacked, they will attack the countries from which those attacks originated from. So that implies Gulf Arab states that have US military personnel here. Um and they've made very clear mushi the supreme leader that any attack on Iran would be met with an immediate response without geographical limitations. So essentially saying that this retaliation from Iran would be much more severe and and worse than we've already seen in this war.

Essentially saying all bets are off. And that's of course, you know, we we're hearing in the days before the midterms, President Trump, this drum beat that maybe attacks might resume, allout attacks on on Iran might resume. Tom, here in Washington, it feels like the blame game is already in full swing for what happened in these elections. Yesterday, the vice president, JD Vance, unbburdened himself at length on X. He wrote, and I quote, "The reason we lost, we being Republicans, the we the reason we lost is the war." Can you walk me through the reasoning there?

Well, yeah. I mean, I'm still paying $439 a gallon at my Delray service center in Alexandria. If you driving a pickup truck out in the Midwest or in the Far West, you're paying a lot, eight bucks a gallon for diesel. Fertilizer costs are up. So, it's hitting the Americans people very, very hard. So clearly what Vance is saying is the obvious that there's a backlash for the cost of this war and also the fact that Trump's base didn't want any foreign wars and here we are and they went into it willy-nilly. They really wasn't prepared for this. Um military planners, we talked about this before, Mary Louise, for 40 years have looked at the Iran war. If you go to war with Iran, what do you do? You have to secure the straight of Horum first. that that was in their plan. That didn't happen. And apparently Trump was told by Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli leader, "Oh, we're just going to decapitate the

regime. Don't worry about the trade war moves. This will be over soon." Remember, they said three or four weeks.

Here we are 9 months in and no end in sight. So, this is JD Vance in a way saying the obvious thing out loud. I was interested the president uh President Trump when he was asked about JD Vance's comments yesterday, he didn't entirely disagree. This is a little taste of him. He was with reporters. He was at the White House uh raising a beam in his new ballroom and talking about the ballroom. Um and he got asked about Vance's comments. We lost because of the war.

Well, I think it's largely true because it drove the gasoline up a little bit short term and probably that's uh probably it's true. But at the same time, if I had it to do again, I'd have to do it again because long term, uh, it's the only answer. You can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon.

You can hear reporters jumping in there to follow up. A, um, for the record, his statement there, you can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon. This war, as far as we know, it hasn't really changed the status of Iran's nuclear weapons in any way. They were already buried um, as the result of military attacks last summer.

Yeah. I mean, Trump said that. He said that, you know, they'd been decimated, taken out. That's what he said last summer. a year ago when he launched that shorter war. I was at a security summit in Manama, Bahrain over the weekend. You know, I drove by on the highway past the fifth fleet, the US Navy fifth fleet, uh, one of its logistical hubs in Bahrain and I could still see the damage to it. There was a radar that had been hit. The warehouses were charred and and blackened. You can see that right there from the highway driving by. And you know, there used to be 8,000 military personnel there and,300 family members.

Now it's just down to a skeleton crew of less than maybe a hundred people. So I mean certainly the defense posture of the US has changed and that's what Iran wants. It wants the US out of this region and it want it to d to divest from the Middle East and move away.

Well, it's not going to divest from the Middle East. They're going to stay there. But AA is right that Bahrain has been almost completely destroyed. The chief of naval operations, Admiral Daryl

Calder, said basically, "We're not going back to Bahrain anytime soon." And you're right, almost all the service members, family members have left, and you could see pullback in some areas of the the Middle East of some of these bases. And it could be because it's too expensive to fix them. And also with a drone threat, you're too close to Iran with a drone and missile threat. They may say we're just going to abandon this particular base and pull back uh farther west. So the Pentagon is still assessing which bases do we keep, you know, in repair, which do we leave? They hope to have something along those lines, details by year's end.

Okay, time for a quick break. When we get back, Democrats will soon have control of Congress. How much influence may they try to assert over foreign policy? That's after the break on sources and methods from NPR. Stay tuned for the following announcements and messages from our sponsors. This message comes from Jerry. Car insurance gives drivers plenty to be skeptical about. Jerry gives them a way to check. Jerry shops rates from over 100 insurers so drivers can review their options and switch all in the app. No spam calls, no hidden fees. Jerry has saved drivers over $1 billion on car insurance. It has 4.75 stars on the App Store and over 5 million drivers. Still skeptical? There's only one way to find out. Download Jerry today. Want to survive the holiday conversation? Come prepared. Pop Culture Happy Hour gets you up to speed on the movies, music, and TV shows everyone is talking about.

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We're back. Come January, as we've noted, Democrats will control both the House and the Senate. So, how might they use that control to push back on President Trump's policies? Policies like the war in Iran. Well, Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer has an idea.

We are going to end the war. He was speaking to reporters on Wednesday. and the founding fathers had the power of the purse as one of the ways of deterring a president who does war without the consent of the American people.

Tom, does that sound to you like Democrats are going to be looking for ways to block defense funding for the war?

Oh, already there's there's been a problem on the Hill getting through the supplemental money for the Iran war. Uh 67 billion. So they could just basically say, "We're not going to fund this war anymore." And that could bring it to a close.

Yeah. Um as we although President Trump has found all kinds of ways to bypass Congress, does that necessarily become easy to shut this down when Democrats take control?

You know, it's hard to say uh what exactly are they going to do besides the money? Yeah.

What else could they do? Um could they basically push the war powers act get that through which basically means you know you can send troops over for 2 months and then at the end of that you have to withdraw them unless you get approval from congress they can play that card too. Now president presidents in the past have kind of ignored the war powers act and kind of pushed forward with their military missions but the money could be a way of just bringing this thing to a close or curtailing it somewhat. Um, but getting back to what what's going to happen in the future, you know, we do know the USS Theodore Roosevelt is heading to the region.

That'll mean three aircraft carriers there and really unusual. Just to stay on that for a second, three aircraft carriers in one place or 2003 they did it during the Iraq war and you know, here we go bombing Iraq and earlier this year there were three carriers there as well for the opening salvo and the Iran war. So keep an eye on that. And you're right, you know, President Trump has said, "I may bomb." Then he talked to the Financial Times, said, "No, I don't think I'll bomb right now." Then you have JD Vance basically reaching out to senior Iranian officials saying, "Let's sit down and make out some sort of a deal." So you have this kind of back and forth, what Trump is saying, what Vance is saying. Could they start attacks again on Iran? Possibly. But we just don't get a sense because you get this what Trump is saying and what Vance is saying.

Yeah. Um, you're reminding me since we're going back a little bit in time. Um, you and I, Tom, covered the fallout from another midterm route back in 2006. 20 years ago, we were babies. We had no gray hair.

Um, I still don't. I got to speak for myself. Um, to remind 2006, the broad outlines of the situation were as follows. You had a deeply unpopular Republican president who had taken the country into a deeply unpopular war in the Middle East. And in the midterm elections in 2006, voters said enough and flipped both the House and the Senate to Democrats. If this is sounding familiar, um you know, the president back then was George W. Bush. The war was Iraq. Afghanistan was of course also ongoing. Um, and President Bush decided after this midterm route for his party, he decided to shake things up.

The election has changed many things in Washington, but it has not changed my fundamental responsibility, and that is to protect the American people from attack. As the commander-in-chief, I take these responsibilities seriously, and so does the man who served this nation honorably for almost six years as our Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld. Now, after a series of thoughtful conversations, Secretary Rumsfeld and I agreed that the timing is right for new leadership at the Pentagon.

So, Donald Rumsfeld was out. Do the parallels to what happened 20 years ago end there, or Tom, should the current defense secretary start polishing up his resume?

Well, it's interesting. Uh, reporter Jonathan Carl was talking with Trump just this morning and the president basically said, "I'm sticking with Pete Higgsath. He's done doing a great job." And then Carl asked him, "Well, you're getting a lot of calls from people who say he's not doing that great a job. He's got to go." And Trump replied, "Yeah, I'm getting those calls. I don't know why." So, we'll see what happens. Um, back in 2006 when the Democrats took over, they tried to put an end to the Iraq war within two years by 2008. That didn't happen. What you did see were more hearings, more investigations, more oversight. You're definitely going to see that now when the Democrats take over. They'll be dragging Hegsath if he's still around up to the hill probably every week. So the big question going forward is will Pete Hegath be the Donald Rumsfeld of 2026? We just don't know that yet.

Yeah. I mean, this is making me think about a question that may be unanswerable, but I'll throw it out to both of you. Who owns this war? You know, we have Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, who started it and who are both still at the helm, but uh weakened uh by by elections in their country since they started this.

There's no question that Pete Hex is the face of the Iran war, just like Rumsfeld was a face of the Iraq war. Um he's been the the big cheerleader for this. Let's keep bombing. Let's keep going. Others like JD Vance have been kind of reluctant about this whole thing. And I do know talking to military people, they were reluctant too because okay, just go over there and do it. Send the Navy and send the Air Force and here we are nine months later. It's still not over. And then how do you define over?

They tried regime change, right? They tried regime change. That clearly didn't happen. And A is right. They still have a nuclear program. It's not completely gone. And Iran is in better position now than it was earlier this year because they have a a say in the straight of whoo. They're probably in better shape now Iran politically because they can wait for the Democrats to come in just like Senator Schumer said, "We're going to end this war."

They're economically battered for sure. Iran is definitely economically battered by this war and economically isolated. They've lost the trust if there was any semblance of trust with their Gulf Arab neighbors. That's going to take a very long time to rebuild if it can be. But at the same time, they control the straight of Hermuz. I don't see any scenario in which the straight of Hermuz goes back to pre February 28th conditions where you know ships are just flowing freely back and forth. I think another thing that JD Vance said in his tweet that's really interesting when he's talked about the ending the war. He also talked about changing our relationship with Israel. I don't know what that means but that is certainly something I've even heard a little bit here in Bahrain which has close ties with Israel. Um and also changing the relationship with the United States.

I've seen Gulf Arab countries talking about a romance with the United States that has changed. Actually the UAE uh senior uh advisor um he's a top Amiradi diplomat named Anar Gargosh was speaking at that security summit in Bahrain over the weekend and he talked about that romance.

The romance is still there. It's alive. It depends which part of the Middle East you're in. So I I see in fact that uh uh from a from a hard policy point of view, every country uh realizes that its relations with the United States is core and important. And I think in the Gulf, many countries have already factored in over the last decade that the US is not going to put boots on the grounds to protect uh Gulf security.

And then what about just the ongoing economic impact? I mean, fair to say it's Gulf countries who've taken, you know, maybe second to Iran, but but a very close second to Iran the biggest hit on this.

Yes. In these Gulf countries, their economies have been pummeled so hard by this war. The International Monetary Fund says Bahrain's economy is down 11% this year. You have countries like Qatar and Kuwait whose ports are inaccessible because of the straight of Hermuz. So we're talking food, medicine, and all these other exports that aren't just oil, but you know, aluminum and other byproducts that can't get out.

And then what about oil? Because you've told me in past I think about like Aramco, the Saudi oil company, and and what kind of hit they have taken.

Yeah. So Saudi Aramco's profits are down even though oil prices are sky-high now. They've they've shot up. I was just covering Emirates Airlines, the biggest mediest airline. It's like the you know the airline that keeps Dubai running. They are their profits are down almost 70% you know for so far this year. Um and one more thing to point out if I can is that all of these conflicts are interlin. So Gaza, the war in Gaza that's tenuous. this that tenuous ceasefire that isn't really holding in Gaza these you know attacks by Yemen's Houthies on Saudi Arabia. I can't get to Riyad today. The airport there really isn't open because of those attacks. I was thinking actually when Kisham Island was hit earlier this week by the US on some I guess some launch pads there for Iran. I was in Bahrain and I thought to myself in the middle of the night when that happened, how am I going to get back to Dubai? because neither would

Manama airport be functioning and opening and safe to fly out if Iran retaliated. And I can't fly out through Saudi. Like imagine you're in the Gulf. This is like a travel hub. This is a connection between the East and the West. And I'm thinking I would have to find a ride in cash to get back from Bahrain to Dubai somehow through the desert. Like this is unheard of. You know, the Gulf is known for wealth, prosperity, and connectivity. I sounds like all kinds of pressure from Gulf allies from now Democrats on Capitol Hill, all kinds of pressure to let's find a way to end this one way or the other. Um, but any signs that that is sinking in with Donald Trump?

It doesn't seem to be that way. And analysts I talk with say, listen, Iran is in a better position now. You're going to have to give them some sort of a carrot. Now, what is that carrot? Is it allowing them to have service fees for passage through the Gulf? Is it unfreezing their assets? What is it? But something is going to have to change. And it looks like again some sort of a carrot for Iran to end this war.

Time for our last break. When we come back, we'll open up our reporter notebooks for OSENT, open- source intelligence. That's ahead on Sources and Methods from NPR. Stay tuned for the following announcements and messages from our sponsors. This message comes from Jerry. Don't overpay for car insurance. Jerry's the only app that compares rates from over 100 insurers in minutes. Drivers who save with Jerry could save over $1,400 a year. Download Jerry today.

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We're back with Tom Bowman and Betray. All right, we've talked about how Iran might see these midterm election results as a win or at least an opportunity for them, as a rebuke to Trump. Yeah. Just zoom out for a second because it's not just Iran. It's not just the Gulf that is seeing the risks and opportunities of this rapidly changing moment in the US.

Yes. I mean, we have the tenuous ceasefire in Gaza that is hardly holding really at this point. We still see daily killings by the Israeli military in Gaza, civilians being killed there, a stalled peace plan there. We haven't gotten to phase two. We don't have an international stabilization force on the ground. That situation is potentially a tinder box that could explode at any moment. You also have uh the war in Yemen right now um raging again and Yemen's Houthis attacking Saudi oil sites and airports and the Saudis striking across Yemen and and and that war. And now we have Egypt getting involved to try to defend Saudi Arabia and other countries getting drawn in to help Saudi Arabia protect its airspace and its borders. And then you also have this war in the straight of Hermuz that uh and and with Iran that hasn't been resolved. So there's all these different wars. You can't delink them. And of

course, we still have a situation in Lebanon and Syria with undefined borders there and Israel's occupation ongoing. All of this is connected and all of this is unstable um when you don't have the war in Iran wrapped up.

The bottom line really for the United States is how do you end the Iran war? And again, you can't maintain that blockade forever. It's really hard on the Navy. Um, Iran is now in a better position because the Republicans lost both houses and as we just said, Senator Schumer wants to find a way to end that war. So, if I'm an Iranian official looking at that, it's like I'm in a better position. I can drive a harder bargain now to end this war. And again, it's going to come down to uh unfreezing the billions of dollars in frozen assets. It could be they're asking for reparations, which I don't think the US would ever agree to. And they're also asking for some control in the future over the straight of Hormuz. Now, that could be tolls. It could be service fees, but we we're going to have to wait and see. And we can ask Senator Schumer if we ever get him on the on the air.

Well, how do you as General Petraeus said in Iraq, "Tell me how this ends." Senator, tell me how this ends.

That brings us to the last section of our podcast, Osent, open source intelligence, not so secret, but telling details that we stumble upon in our reporting. Tom Bowman kicks off.

Well, earlier this year, NPR reported that the Pentagon was mounting a study of women in ground combat.

You reported I remember you came. I did. I don't want to brag about it, but yes, that was my reporting.

Brag away, Tom. And basically, women have been in the ground combat positions for a decade now. About 5,000 in armor, artillery, and infantry. But Secretary Hegath, when he was a Fox News personality and an author, always questioned this, that women can't measure up to men, that you're lowering standards. So he mounts this big study. They've done all their field visits, I'm told, all around the country, but advocates for women in ground combat who say they're doing quite well say that u this study uh seems biased, not well put together, and designed to basically echo uh Secretary Hegs bias reports due by year's end. So we'll see what happens. Stay tuned.

You by the end of this year, we're going to get this report. All right. Uh, I'm doing push-ups as as Tom was telling us that. I'm sure you are too. Pull-ups over there in Dubai. What's What's your ass in?

Okay. So, for me, what was really surprising was finding out that during this war, the coordination among the Gulf Arab states was, according to Anoir Gagos, the senior Emirati diplomat who spoke at this forum, a failure. And I was speaking to other people about why that was. And I was hearing things that were pretty shocking. Like for example, they'd say there'd be missiles flying over Kuwait, for example, headed for Saudi Arabia, and there would be no coordination. So you would have these meetings maybe every week among defense officials or security officials about sort of like what had happened that week, but it wasn't like in real time.

There was no like real-time control room to kind of alert your, you know, other countries of what was coming. So that is going to take a long time to try to get together and so and to fix. And so there was talk about being prepared for the next round. So while all the Gulf countries do feel more prepared if Iran does if we do enter into another round of war with like missile defense and drone defense sort of knowing what to expect and trying to be more prepared like we've literally seen helicopters and and fighter jets chasing drones in the skies here during the war to shoot them down because interceptors are so expensive and running low. But when it comes to just the golf coordination, I was pretty surprised to find out that that is still a long way away among these six GCC Gulf Corporation Council countries and that they they they've acknowledged that they really do need to work on that better.

H All right. Uh my OENT is this mystery of these weird bomb threats disrupting flights all over Europe this week. You were talking about flight disruptions in the Gulf. Yeah. Um, today there were threats targeting four planes to Prague, an aeringus flight to Rome, a thin air flight from Helsinki. They've stopped the planes or diverted them. They find no explosives on any of these planes. Everybody's fine. But it's not clear what the connection is. Like why these flights? Is there are they connected in any way? We have no idea.

Uh, the Associated Press is quoting a guy named Matthew Borie, founder of Osprey Flight Solutions, that's a UK- based aviation risk company. Um, he says, "Look, this could be anything from, you know, one person calling in a threat and now they're all these copycats. It could be, you know, a rogue group. Uh, it could be hybrid warfare by state actors. We don't know. Well, we do know Europe was already on edge. Our colleague Jenna Mlaughlin has been reporting on these hacker attacks on supermarket fridges. And then speaking of drones, you know, there obviously drone incursions uh you know on the edges of the Ukraine war that everybody's watching. So um people in Europe are on edge and we're going to watch the story and see what the heck is going on with European flights.

Mayor Lee, can I jump in and say one more thing? Mhm. I am so honored that I get to be on this uh podcast with you because I believe it's the second to last sources and methods that you're going to host. It is

and it's been such a pleasure to be with you on what I think is one of the smartest newest podcasts that NPR produces and to see it led by a woman and a woman with your experience and I just want to thank you so much for having us on this podcast leading these really smart conversations and you're really going to be missed.

Oh, I will echo that. It's been a pleasure. It's been a lot of fun. It has been a pleasure and a lot of fun and I'm so But you're not leaving us, right? Yeah, we got one more week. You have to put up with me with one

and then after that one more week, you're still going to be around in I will be I will be around and contributing.

You're a national treasure, a crown jewel. It's true. Well, I will say thank you to both of you uh for my penultimate uh episode with AARI and Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman. It is true. The finish line is closed. Next week is going to be our last episode of Sources and Methods. So, everybody join me. Um, and I need to say a special thank you to an editor who is looking back at me through the glass from the control room. Andrew Susman is NPR's national security editor, and this podcast has been his baby from day one.

He shows up every damn week. So excited. So proud of y'all's reporting. So full of ideas. I have an early memory, this is going back years, but of arguing with Andrew about an edit he wanted to make to a story of mine, uh, a story to do with Russia. And Andrew starts pulling up documents and translating them in real time from Russian, which he speaks beautifully from his years living and working as a journalist in Moscow. And it matters so much to all of us. Andrew to have an editor with that kind of deep knowledge of the stories that we cover.

Andrew is out next week. He's going to be in London gallivanning. So, this is his last sources and methods. And we want to say thank you for all you have done to make us better. Round of applause.

Yeah. Thank you, Andrew. Thank you. Uh, and I will say thank you to all of you out there listening. I'm Mary Louise Kelly and I am back one more week next week with the last episode of Sources and Methods from NPR.

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Questions about this episode

Who speaks in "Iran's response to midterm results / The blame game / Risks and opportunities"?

Mike Danforth (Guest), Mary Louise Kelly (Host), Aab Trrowi (Guest), Tom Bowman (Guest), Andrew Susman (Guest), Unspecified (OSINT segment host/participants) (Guest).

What is "Iran's response to midterm results / The blame game / Risks and opportunities" about?

The piece analyzes how midterm results reshape U.S. foreign policy toward Iran, focusing on how Iran’s leverage and potential concessions could impact ongoing conflict and the broader geopolitical landscape, including implications for U.S. domestic political dynamics. It also examines what the election turnover means for U.S. strategy and opportunities or risks on Capitol Hill.

What is mentioned in this NPR episode?

75 people, works and ideas are mentioned, including Iran, Mary Louise Kelly, Donald Trump, Strait of Hormuz, Tom Bowman, NPR. Each one on this page links to its own page with every episode that mentions it.

How long is "Iran's response to midterm results / The blame game / Risks and opportunities"?

The episode runs 31 min; the transcript is about 5,702 words in 71 timestamped sections.

More from NPR

About this transcript: the episode's spoken words as captioned on YouTube, split into timestamped sections. Reclip.Me locates every person, work and idea in the text, keeps the time it is first named, and quotes the words around it verbatim. Last updated November 6, 2026.